The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"

[ClaretOfMancunia]

Can we get 8 points from our next 8 games?

16/08/25: Tottenham (A) - 0pts
23/08/25: Sunderland (H) - 3pts
30/08/25: Man United (A)
14/09/25: Liverpool (H)
20/09/25: Nottm Forest (H)
27/09/25: Man City (A)
05/10/25: Aston Villa (A)
18/10/25: Leeds (H)
26/10/25: Wolves (A)
01/11/25: Arsenal (H)

[CoolClaret]

I think we'd hope to get ~ 4 results from that... I'd take 1 win and three draws right now!

[ollieclarets8]

Minimum of 6. Doesn't really help does it

[Falcon]

If we do then I'd imagine we'd have to win at least 2 out of Forest, Leeds and Wolves. It'll take some doing given the high quality of the rest of the opponents.

[ClaretOfMancunia]

If we do then I'd imagine we'd have to win at least 2 out of Forest, Leeds and Wolves. It'll take some doing given the high quality of the rest of the opponents.

Agree with that. Win two of those, draw one and a draw somewhere else (perhaps Manure this weekend..) - tall ask.

[ollieclarets8]

Football being football, we'll beat Man U and lose to Wolves.

[Colburn_Claret]

The BBC doesn't say that all those clubs who failed to attain 11 points were relegated. So it's really irrelevant.

[ClaretOfMancunia]

The BBC doesn't say that all those clubs who failed to attain 11 points were relegated. So it's really irrelevant.

You're right, but it's a good early indicator regardless.

How many promoted teams of the past 10 seasons who didn't hit 11 points by GW10 went on to stay up?

[Ampth7]

Can we get 8 points from our next 8 games?

16/08/25: Tottenham (A) - 0pts
23/08/25: Sunderland (H) - 3pts
30/08/25: Man United (A)
14/09/25: Liverpool (H)
20/09/25: Nottm Forest (H)
27/09/25: Man City (A)
05/10/25: Aston Villa (A)
18/10/25: Leeds (H)
26/10/25: Wolves (A)
01/11/25: Arsenal (H)

Crikey, when you see those opponents one after the other, it reminds you why it’s so bloody difficult to win games at this level!

[ClaretOfMancunia]

You're right, but it's a good early indicator regardless.

How many promoted teams of the past 10 seasons who didn't hit 11 points by GW10 went on to stay up?

I got ChatGPT to crunch the numbers on this as I was interested. Can't speak to the accuracy as I'm no statistician.

Past ten seasons, points after GW10:

>10 points (12 teams)
Stayed up: 12 → 12/12 = 100% survival
Relegated: 0

≤10 points (18 teams)
Stayed up: 2 → Bournemouth 2015–16, Forest 2022–23 → 2/18 = 11.1% survival
Relegated: 16

>10 points (11+) after Gameweek 10

Code: Select all

Team	Points	Season	Outcome
Watford	13	2015–16	Stayed up
Burnley	11	2016–17	Stayed up
Newcastle	14	2017–18	Stayed up
Brighton	12	2017–18	Stayed up
Huddersfield	12	2017–18	Stayed up
Wolves	15	2018–19	Stayed up
Sheff Utd	13	2019–20	Stayed up
Aston Villa	11	2019–20	Stayed up
Leeds	14	2020–21	Stayed up
Brentford	12	2021–22	Stayed up
Fulham	14	2022–23	Stayed up
Bournemouth	12	2022–23	Stayed up

Count = 12 teams

≤10 points (≤10) after Gameweek 10

Code: Select all

Team	Points	Season	Outcome
Bournemouth	8	2015–16	Stayed up
Norwich	9	2015–16	Relegated
Middlesbrough	10	2016–17	Relegated
Hull	7	2016–17	Relegated
Cardiff	5	2018–19	Relegated
Fulham	5	2018–19	Relegated
Norwich	7	2019–20	Relegated
West Brom	6	2020–21	Relegated
Fulham	7	2020–21	Relegated
Norwich	2	2021–22	Relegated
Watford	10	2021–22	Relegated
Forest	5	2022–23	Stayed up
Luton	5	2023–24	Relegated
Burnley	4	2023–24	Relegated
Sheff Utd	1	2023–24	Relegated
Ipswich	5	2024–25	Relegated
Southampton	4	2024–25	Relegated
Leicester	10	2024–25	Relegated

Count = 18 teams

[bfcmik]

2 years ago the BBC said that every promoted club who had achieved a hundred points or more had never been relegated!

[ClaretOfMancunia]

Crikey, when you see those opponents one after the other, it reminds you why it’s so bloody difficult to win games at this level!

Yes, and yet somehow, I still have belief we'll do it!

[Culmclaret]

In 2009/10 we had 12 points from our first 10 and 15 from our first 11…..