xG- worst attack and worst defence

[dougcollins]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/ar ... v865zz3n5o

[DanH90]

And that’s why 5 at the back has to go. Isn’t shoring us up defensively and is stunting our attack.

[RVclaret]

And that’s why 5 at the back has to go. Isn’t shoring us up defensively and is stunting our attack.

Or, we’ve had remarkably difficult fixtures for a newly promoted team, that has been trying find its feet while new players bed in.

As for the article, one chart on there that is most interesting, shows how we concede quite a high volume of lower quality chances (the low quality of chances conceded is actually quite good and ranks in the top quartile of clubs).

[bobinho]

It roughly states Leeds and Sunderland are holding up quite well, whilst Burnley are awful.

Except we beat Sunderland, and only narrowly lost v Liverpool and manure.

Clickbait nonsense. Should’ve known better…

[Ampth7]

It roughly states Leeds and Sunderland are holding up quite well, whilst Burnley are awful.

Except we beat Sunderland, and only narrowly lost v Liverpool and manure.

Clickbait nonsense. Should’ve known better…

I agree at this point, but if the stats still look like this in 4/5 games time, then I think it will be a problem…..

[tarkys_ears]

Head in sand time, lads!

No one likes us... etc

[KRBFC]

Not surprised, we look all over the place defensively.

[alwaysaclaret]

I agree at this point, but if the stats still look like this in 4/5 games time, then I think it will be a problem…..

Although we do still have Arsenal and Chelsea in those 5 games, must be the toughest start any team has ever had, surely. Granted there is the rhetoric that come the end of the season it all adds up and the league produces the best and worst over the season, but as history tells us the closer a team is to that drop zone, pressure builds and it gets harder and harder to pull away from it. We surely have to target the games v Leeds, wolves, and West ham, should we get maximum points from those 3 we'll have 13pts from 12 games if my reckoning is correct, assuming we lose the arsenal and Chelsea game's, so would change the overall view. Lose them or fail to take maximum points and it's going to be a long and difficult season.

[ollieclarets8]

xG doesn't take into account player quality. You could have a one-legged man take a short - his chance of scoring will be the same as if Salah takes it. Surely the better the opposition, the higher the likelihood of your xG against being high.

[NottsClaret]

Our opening 7 games were against the teams currently in 2,3,5,9,10,13 and 17th position. Is that ridiculously tough? Seems like a reasonable spread. Any match we 'target' is 100% going to be the opposition's main target too. Wolves, Leeds and West Ham will throw everything at their match with us and it's their best chance of 3 points too.

Basically, if you're waiting for it to get easier, I think you'll be disappointed. This is just how it is in this league.

[ChorltonCharlie]

The current average position we’ve faced is 8.43

If the target is to finish 17th, the average position you’d face over the course of the season is 10.16. It has been a tough start, but does show it could have been tougher.

For context, based on a 17th place finish the toughest start you could have would have been an average of 4th place. The easiest an average of 16.43 after 7 games.

This season we should expect to go down, but hope to stay up. Our form so far fits with expectations rather than hope. Teams finishing 17th and above will take points you don’t expect. We simply haven’t done that so far.

[clarets1978]

Our opening 7 games were against the teams currently in 2,3,5,9,10,13 and 17th position. Is that ridiculously tough? Seems like a reasonable spread.

Is it a reasonable spread though? We are a newly promoted team that would be expected to be battling relegation. That list you give says we have played 5 out of 7 games against top half teams. The next four up to the next international break will give us a better indication against 15th, 20th, 1st, & 19th

[RVclaret]

The current average position we’ve faced is 8.43

If the target is to finish 17th, the average position you’d face over the course of the season is 10.16. It has been a tough start, but does show it could have been tougher.

For context, based on a 17th place finish the toughest start you could have would have been an average of 4th place. The easiest an average of 16.43 after 7 games.

This season we should expect to go down, but hope to stay up. Our form so far fits with expectations rather than hope. Teams finishing 17th and above will take points you don’t expect. We simply haven’t done that so far.

You aren’t factoring in that there has been 4 away games from the 7, against 4 top / elite sides. Under Dyche in the first season we stopped up, we won 1 away game all season, Palace, near the back end. That season we won 10 home games. Average final position (more relevant than current position after 7 games given sample size) of teams we beat was 13. You are right, we absolutely do need to pick up a point or more in an unexpected game or two, which makes the late lost points against Utd and Liv more disappointing, but we beat Liverpool at home in that Dyche season for example, but they were the only ‘elite’ side we won against.

[ollieclarets8]

I don't think you need any stats to know we've had one of, if not the, most difficult starting set of fixtures vs any other side. Especially when compared to the 2 other sides who came up.

[RVclaret]

I don't think you need any stats to know we've had one of, if not the, most difficult starting set of fixtures vs any other side. Especially when compared to the 2 other sides who came up.

It seems it’s a struggle for some.

[KRBFC]

Man United and Spurs elite sides, really? What is that based on?

Is that just because we’ve played them both so it suits the argument to pretend like they both haven’t been crap for the last 18 months?

United lost at Grimsby 3 days before playing us and Spurs scraped a point at home to Wolves and lost at home to Bournemouth.

[KRBFC]

People can pretend we’re well organised and it’s just because we’re against “elite sides” that we’re conceding so many chances but well organised sides don’t give up such easy goals on a consistent basis against anyone like we have.

I don’t mind giving up a few goals away at City, it’s expected but I’d expect us to be compact disciplined and organised, not defenders running into each other and booting it into our net.

The likes of City have world class players, they don’t need our help, yet our defending just made it easy for them to score.

[Spijed]

I don’t mind giving up a few goals away at City, it’s expected but I’d expect us to be compact disciplined and organised, not defenders running into each other and booting it into our net.

The likes of City have world class players, they don’t need our help, yet our defending just made it easy for them to score.

The two goals at the end of the game were very poor goals to concede. 3-1 down and we completely collapsed.

We weren't attacking so we should have been far more tidy in defence and just accepted a 3-1 defeat.

[Leisure]

Not surprised, we look all over the place defensively.

That why Liverpool and Utd needed last minute penalties to beat us?

[kentonclaret]

I don't think you need any stats to know we've had one of, if not the, most difficult starting set of fixtures vs any other side. Especially when compared to the 2 other sides who came up.

I am sure fans of Wolves are also looking at and bemoaning their set of opening fixtures, where they kicked off with a home game against Manchester City and have had difficult road trips to Bournemouth, Tottenham and Newcastle.
We also had a home fixture against Nottingham Forest when they were/are in complete disarray but failed to gain the much needed 3 points.

[KRBFC]

That why Liverpool and Utd needed last minute penalties to beat us?

United should’ve been 3-0 up before half time and look at the goals we conceded in that game.

Goal 1: We’ve got 11 men defending a set piece in our own box and Casemiro has a free header inside our 6 yard box. How does that happen?

Goal 2: We score a goal, they kick off and boot it long, our defenders hesitate, let it bounce, Ekdal gets walked around and it’s in our net.

Goal 3: I mean what a brain fart. They do say bad teams find a way to lose and we definitely did that!

[Leisure]

United should’ve been 3-0 up before half time and look at the goals we conceded in that game.

Goal 1: We’ve got 11 men defending a set piece in our own box and Casemiro has a free header inside our 6 yard box. How does that happen?

Goal 2: We score a goal, they kick off and boot it long, our defenders hesitate, let it bounce, Ekdal gets walked around and it’s in our net.

Goal 3: I mean what a brain fart. They do say bad teams find a way to lose and we definitely did that!

But it still took an added time penalty to beat us. As did Liverpool.

[Enola Gay]

If we could make/take chances like some fans make excuses we’d be laughing.

We’re in trouble. Not terminal trouble, but trouble nonetheless. And the idea that all we need is a kinder run of fixtures is frankly toss.

[ClaretOfMancunia]

Goal 3: I mean what a brain fart. They do say bad teams find a way to lose and we definitely did that!

Are we a bad team?

[dougcollins]

We also had a home fixture against Nottingham Forest when they were/are in complete disarray but failed to gain the much needed 3 points.

Yep, it doesn't get mentioned as it doesn't fit the agenda of 'a difficult start'.

[Falcon]

We have had statistically the hardest start out of any of the 20 clubs so I'd hope the stats improve over time. If they don't then we're in trouble, but for now there's not that many data points and the average opponent strength metric hasn't really evened out to compare apples with apples.

However, let's be frank. At the end of the day the only stat that matters is the number of points after 38 games.

For me I went into this season expecting to go down and will be pleasantly surprised if we don't.

[KRBFC]

Are we a bad team?

In this league at the moment yes we’re probably the worst.

We got promoted playing 4231 with a defensive approach, solid, organised and hard to break down. We’ve thrown that out the window to play a wide open gung ho 523 and we look terrible because of it.