SD trapped in his own tautology

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:57 pm

Roosterbooster wrote:Small sample sizes only give significant results if the difference is vast. Normally you would expect to need a much larger sample size. And the larger the sample size the more valid the result. The tests are prone to error, particularly when the test isnt really designed for the question being asked, and when the sample is so small. But the suggestion is clear. Our away form is awful

Of course our away form is awful, I don't think anybody is denying that.

My point was that it's not because we set up differently at home and away, it's because a) we're one of the worst teams in the league; b) all teams have worse results away from home; and c) we're at the bottom end of the expected distribution of results away from home (and probably at the top end at home).

Let's say we're expected to win one out of every 6 away games (maybe that should be worse, but I don't think we should be expected to win more given the quality of the oppositon in the PL), to go 17 without a win is hardly outside the realms of probablity and can be attributed purely to variance.

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:13 pm

Tall Paul wrote:Of course our away form is awful, I don't think anybody is denying that.

My point was that it's not because we set up differently at home and away, it's because a) we're one of the worst teams in the league; b) all teams have worse results away from home; and c) we're at the bottom end of the expected distribution of results away from home (and probably at the top end at home).

Let's say we're expected to win one out of every 6 away games (maybe that should be worse, but I don't think we should be expected to win more given the quality of the oppositon in the PL), to go 17 without a win is hardly outside the realms of probablity and can be attributed purely to variance.

Or maybe we set up the same home and away and that's the problem? We're not one of the worst teams in the league either.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:17 pm

Roosterbooster wrote:Yeah it's not the ideal test. But it does highlight that our away form is much worse than our home form. Without re revising my statistics, I'm not sure how to calculate it exactly. But if you think with our 36 points, using the 1.64 factor, the expected split would be 22 home points to 14 away points. That's a 10 point swing

The top 6 clubs skew that factor a lot. Without them, the factor is 2.09, and on that basis we would be 24-12.

Again ignoring the top 6, because we aren't working on the same expectations as them, the other 14 teams from Everton down have 37 away wins in 227 games - that's pretty close to Paul's 1 in 6. 0.163, to 3 d.p.

So the probability of any of the bottom 14 getting 0 wins in 17 away games is (1-0.163) to the power of 17, which is 0.048 - about a 1 in 20 chance. And there's 14 teams in the lower end of the Premier league, so on those numbers you'd expect someone to get no wins in 17 about twice every three seasons. It's a bit like the lottery - the chances of your ticket winning are infinitesimally small, but the chance of someone's ticket winning aren't. The chances are someone will get zero away wins relatively often; it just so happens (IMO) that a fairly large part of our away form this year is that it's our ticket that has come up. So to speak.

(Clearly some away wins are less likely than others; you could argue that the chances of an away win at any of the top 6 are close to zero (unless it's Liverpool!) and so the away win probability is say 0.225 (1 in 4.44), but then the chances of no away win in our 11 games against teams outside the top 6 becomes 0.061, which doesn't alter the argument.)

Leisure · Post by **Leisure** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:22 pm

Tall Paul wrote:Of course our away form is awful, I don't think anybody is denying that.

Depends on your definition of 'form'. Whilst our results have been awful, our performances (except an odd couple or so) have been pretty good.

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:33 pm

KRBFC wrote:Or maybe we set up the same home and away and that's the problem?

That's a valid point, but it's not what many have been arguing.

We're not one of the worst teams in the league either.

Possibly apart from Hull, we have the lowest budget in the league and were favourites to be relegated at the start of the season. It's been proven that the best predictor for premier league position is a club's wage bill. On that basis, we're one of the worst teams in the league.

Which makes our achievement this season all the more impressive.

Leisure wrote:Depends on your definition of 'form'. Whilst our results have been awful, our performances (except an odd couple or so) have been pretty good.

Yes, can't really disagree with that.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:08 pm

ablueclaret wrote:You'll find victory very pyrrhic Eddie.

You know what pyrrhic means, abc ?

Being victorious sits very well with me, to be honest, I've no problems there !

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:26 pm

Sadly it's done neither of your reputations much good has it?

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:39 pm

I'll cope with that.

ClaretRock · Post by **ClaretRock** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:43 pm

Not read all 6 pages of this guff just certain bits. I think SD has every right to keep playing how we have been as we have been solid at home and competitive with what talent we have MOST games away. I can see why this frustrates you ablue but his frame work has almost got the job done and I will back him up until the end of the season. Next season however I will want to see abit more from the side in the attacking sense but SD has improved the side every season so there is no reason to think this won't be on his list of improvements for next season. In SD we trust!

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:27 pm

Agreed. I think SD knew exactly what the strengths and weaknesses of the Championship-winning squad were and how they were likely to fare in the higher division. He strengthened where he could but there were constraints and, to be fair, the lads were doing their jobs and making the top priority, survival at all costs, a real possibility.
He will be aware that further strengthening is required next season not only to survive but, hopefully, push on. As you say, rock, SD has made us improve year on year and there's no earthly reason why he can't carry that on.

Caernarfon_Claret · Post by **Caernarfon_Claret** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:14 pm

Yeah right.

Juan Tanamera · Post by **Juan Tanamera** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:57 pm

You would think abc would have been on here by now explaining how we will need to change our entire team to claw back Citeh's lead.
6th place and we're obviously doing something wrong.

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:28 am

Well I think I was proved right about three in midfield, and Tarka, we are now a less rigid unit, SD has moved on, got Defour to be part of the set-up and we are where we deserve to be in this League, last year I said I thought we could be a top 10 side.
The framework is important it gives players structure, but SD took an age to realise what was needed away from home. He can be extremely stubborn at times, the downside of his otherwise successful methodology.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:29 am

Would it hurt that much to hold your hands up and go "Yep, fair enough"?

TheFamilyCat · Post by **TheFamilyCat** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:36 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Would it hurt that much to hold your hands up and go "Yep, fair enough"?

I think he's claiming to be a visionary who could have had us in this position last season.

Firthy · Post by **Firthy** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:50 am

TheFamilyCat wrote:I think he's claiming to be a visionary who could have had us in this position last season.

I think it's abc that's trapped in his own tautology

jordsclarets · Post by **jordsclarets** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:02 am

KRBFC wrote:He's taken the club as far as he possibly can.

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:06 am

ablueclaret wrote:Well I think I was proved right about three in midfield, and Tarka, we are now a less rigid unit, SD has moved on, got Defour to be part of the set-up and we are where we deserve to be in this League, last year I said I thought we could be a top 10 side.
The framework is important it gives players structure, but SD took an age to realise what was needed away from home. He can be extremely stubborn at times, the downside of his otherwise successful methodology.

When you make as many bold and contradictory statements as you have done, you're bound to be right with the odd one or two of them.

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:47 am

How do you get trapped in your oun tautology? Does it hurt? Can you get training for it?

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:23 pm

The framework has been at the heart of SD's success, essentially he believes that footballers need a method that they can understand and adhere to and in this he is right, an organised side will generally beat a disorganised one.
The problem comes when the framework is seen to be faulty, when either it cannot accommodate skill ie Defour or be robust enough to deal with the opposition, us last year away from home.
SD because of his adherence to the 4-4-2 framework made life hard for himself and failed to get the best out of the side, but his conversion to the midfield three made flexibility and the integration of skill possible, he has adapted, something I feared he never would.
Yes I still believe he needs to move to another club to develop further, to become more flexible and to deal with skill at a higher level, but he has shown this season that he is moving forward and he deserves the accolades he is getting for that.

Flexibility + framework + fitness = success.
Flexibility + framework + fitness + finesse = magic.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:30 pm

Why is it, in all your determined "I know more than Sean Dyche" burblings, that you totally forget that in the early part of the season (when we were getting tubbed by several goals in away games) we played quite often with one up front and Defour in midfield?

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:40 pm

SD retreated into 4-4-2 like a comfort zone. This is the first season he has really taken three in midfield seriously.
Last season a back three of Keane Tarka and Mee was there to experiment with he never even hinted at trying it.
He is intrinsically conservative and in that way very unlike his mentor Clough, even now he is not an experimental manager but he does organise his sides superbly.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:42 pm

There was no need for 3 at the back and last season wasn't the time to experiment, it was all about survival.

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:44 pm

There never is a season when it's right to experiment,
but the brave do so, that's how they learn.

ClaretLoup · Post by **ClaretLoup** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:48 pm

Clough never managed in the EPL era with massive investment and mass importation of all the best players from Overseas.

On the other hand Dyche has had to play the hand dealt to him financially. I firmly believe that if we could play any of the four following five Leicester forwards Vardy,Gray,Okazaki, Mahrez and Albrighton instead of our own players, Burnley would easily claim a top 4 spot. However to buy players of that calibre would cost £200+ million, plus 5 year contracts on £50/100k per week.

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:37 pm

[quote="jordsclarets"][/quote]
I like how you picked one statement out of the entire topic. Has he taken us as far as he can? Right now my statement hasn't been proven wrong. Can he take us to Europe? You seem to think its a forgone conclusion, I wouldn't be so certain we're not even halfway in yet.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:18 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:Clough never managed in the EPL era with massive investment and mass importation of all the best players from Overseas.

On the other hand Dyche has had to play the hand dealt to him financially. I firmly believe that if we could play any of the four following five Leicester forwards Vardy,Gray,Okazaki, Mahrez and Albrighton instead of our own players, Burnley would easily claim a top 4 spot. However to buy players of that calibre would cost £200+ million, plus 5 year contracts on £50/100k per week.

No it wouldn't, those players cost Leicester less than what we got for Keane I think.
Same with their initial wages.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:19 pm

ablueclaret wrote:There never is a season when it's right to experiment,
but the brave do so, that's how they learn.

Yes there is, this season has shown that, or have you ignored the changes to formation/tactics etc?

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:26 pm

I think my statements make it plain that I'm glad that SD has adopted the formation that was always most likely to succeed away from home, it took him a long time to get there nevertheless.
However he is still not an experimenter, he remains a fervid pragmatist with limited ambition and I fancy until he moves to a club where he has greater belief in the abilities of his players he will continue to adhere to his frameworks, and of course given his achievements it might be argued why would he change.

Caernarfon_Claret · Post by **Caernarfon_Claret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:29 pm

It depends what the experiment is.

Trying a 2-6-2 formation maybe not the best experiment.

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:35 pm

ablueclaret wrote:I think my statements make it plain that I'm glad that SD has adopted the formation that was always most likely to succeed away from home, it took him a long time to get there nevertheless.
However he is still not an experimenter, he remains a fervid pragmatist with limited ambition and I fancy until he moves to a club where he has greater belief in the abilities of his players he will continue to adhere to his frameworks, and of course given his achievements it might be argued why would he change.

SD's belief in the ability of his players isn't something I thought would ever be questioned

If there's just one thing he's demonstrated in his five years as manager it's that he believes in his players.

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:40 pm

Yes he believes in his players but only to do limited things, he doesn't think them good enough to play off the cuff. He is realistic he keeps on pointing that out to anybody willing to listen.

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:42 pm

ablueclaret wrote:Yes he believes in his players but only to do limited things, he doesn't think them good enough to play off the cuff.

B0llocks

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:45 pm

Well experiments are best when they make the best us of the squad.
We could have played three at the back with Mee Keane and Tarkowski.
We could have played 5 in midfield last season away from home.
We could change tactics and formations during the game, be more proactive with substitutions.
This season we have seen a growing willingness to do this, it might not have proved successful fortunately until now it has.

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:46 pm

Well he doesn't that's why he's always referring to the different quality of other sides.

DCWat · Post by **DCWat** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:46 pm

ablueclaret wrote:SD retreated into 4-4-2 like a comfort zone. This is the first season he has really taken three in midfield seriously.
Last season a back three of Keane Tarka and Mee was there to experiment with he never even hinted at trying it.
He is intrinsically conservative and in that way very unlike his mentor Clough, even now he is not an experimental manager but he does organise his sides superbly.

It’s this season where he has been able to bring the players in to further develop our style. Nothing to do with retreating to his comfort zone.

Assuming he’s still with us, I fully expect further development next year and I suspect Dyche already knows exactly what he wants.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:55 pm

ablueclaret wrote:Yes he believes in his players but only to do limited things, he doesn't think them good enough to play off the cuff. He is realistic he keeps on pointing that out to anybody willing to listen.

We are 5th in the PL as it stands and that's down to goal difference...

He can carry on with players of limited ability for all we care, why you'd want him to change what clearly isn't broken I don't know....

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:57 pm

ablueclaret wrote:Well experiments are best when they make the best us of the squad.
We could have played three at the back with Mee Keane and Tarkowski.
We could have played 5 in midfield last season away from home.
We could change tactics and formations during the game, be more proactive with substitutions.
This season we have seen a growing willingness to do this, it might not have proved successful fortunately until now it has.

No we couldn't do the 3 at the back or 5 in midfield, we didn't have the right personel for those changes in formation...

This is what you're failing to grasp, it's all about gradual change, improving the playing staff and then the formation and style.

If we'd gone with 3 at the back last season or a regular 5 in midfield we would've been battered off the field because our players weren't good enough.

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:00 pm

ablueclaret wrote:Yes he believes in his players but only to do limited things, he doesn't think them good enough to play off the cuff. He is realistic he keeps on pointing that out to anybody willing to listen.

And don't you think that is his strength? All the world and his wife knows that we haven't got the best players in the world so he has to create a system that gets the most of what we do have. You can have players playing 'off the cuff' when you have a team full of great individuals but we haven't got that. As has been pointed out many times by the media and fans Burnley's whole is greater than the sum of it's parts. If you are Barcelona or Real or the Brazilian national team or even City you can let the players have their reign but we have to have discipline and strategy and leadership, and that is exactly what we have got.

Bordeauxclaret · Post by **Bordeauxclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:01 pm

This is where ablue let’s himself down with his guessing.

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:19 pm

Yes I do believe it his strength and also his weakness.
SD's time as a player has deeply influenced his strategies, his experiences of football below the top tier mean that he is a pragmatic thoughtful genuine manager who just doesn't really do the prima Donna type of player. Every player has to tighten his game become a team player and that is the reason for his success but the exceptional players usually bridle at such restrictions because they know even more is possible.
Some of our players have had more in their locker than SD allows to be expressed. SD knows that excess within a system is problematic, in many ways up until this season he has drilled individuality out of players, this season with The recruitment of Cork, that long awaited dependable midfielder he has released his grip just a fraction.

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:21 pm

We did have the personnel to try 3 at the back but it was never in SD's plans, he is as we know a gradualist a tortoise who has won more races than many flashy hares, but someday I'm sure he'd love to manage a few hares.

jordsclarets · Post by **jordsclarets** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:38 pm

KRBFC wrote:The board should sack Dyche now, took us as far as he can. He should have been sacked on the pitch immediately after we lost to Lincoln to be fair.

Well here is another from the same thread

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:44 pm

I think KRBFC has retracted that statement.
Just because a manager has done wonderfully well doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement just like there is in the club, too many people here sit back and believe we have gone as far as we can when its quite obviously not the case, we might slip back on terms of league position but we can become a better footballing side.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:51 pm

ablueclaret wrote:Yes I do believe it his strength and also his weakness.
SD's time as a player has deeply influenced his strategies, his experiences of football below the top tier mean that he is a pragmatic thoughtful genuine manager who just doesn't really do the prima Donna type of player. Every player has to tighten his game become a team player and that is the reason for his success but the exceptional players usually bridle at such restrictions because they know even more is possible.
Some of our players have had more in their locker than SD allows to be expressed. SD knows that excess within a system is problematic, in many ways up until this season he has drilled individuality out of players, this season with The recruitment of Cork, that long awaited dependable midfielder he has released his grip just a fraction.

You're cranking up the levels of rubbish today

Defour had an issue with how we played last season, yet Dyche shared his future vision when he was planning on recruiting a better standard of player and here we are now, in 5th.

He hasn't drilled individually out of the players, he's shown them how to play as a team which is crucial to us.

If you're not sure what I mean, look at how Everton were toss earlier this season when they weren't playing as a team/unit and the difference now Big Sam has rocked up.
That's probably the clearest example you'll see, if you're willing to pay attention.

Nail the basics down and then work from there when the base is solid.
Dyche does exactly that.
We've scored just 16 league goals so far and we've got 31 points because the base of the team is solid and the flair can now be expressed.

It's working and Defour is key, much to your probable disgust after your crap last season that he wouldn't work out here because he's foreign

We've seen much more flair and attacking threat from Joey and Brady, coupled with the running of Cork, the over lapping runs of our full backs etc.

That's only possible when the team as a whole is aware of its primary jobs first and foremost.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:53 pm

ablueclaret wrote:I think KRBFC has retracted that statement.
Just because a manager has done wonderfully well doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement just like there is in the club, too many people here sit back and believe we have gone as far as we can when its quite obviously not the case, we might slip back on terms of league position but we can become a better footballing side.

We know we can be a better footballing side, we knew it last season when people like KRBFC were having tantrums on here.
We knew when you were droning on and on with your tactical insights.

We also knew when we said it required better players and gradual improvements...

boatshed bill · Post by **boatshed bill** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:41 pm

ablueclaret wrote:I think KRBFC has retracted that statement.
Just because a manager has done wonderfully well doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement just like there is in the club, too many people here sit back and believe we have gone as far as we can when its quite obviously not the case, we might slip back on terms of league position but we can become a better footballing side.

Do you actually watch games?
I think we are playing some great football.
Our defensive work is fantastic to watch, an absolute object lesson.
JBG, Defour and Cork are all playing some great stuff in possession.
If our improvement this season isn't good enough for you then you really do need to switch alliance to a big money club.

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:52 pm

jordsclarets wrote:Well here is another from the same thread

You can't seriously think I expected to see a manager sacked on the pitch following the full time whistle hahahaha

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:02 pm

ablueclaret wrote:Well I think I was proved right about three in midfield...

This isn’t a criticism because it’s entirely you’re choice whether or not you watch us, but if you did you’d know we don’t play three in midfield.

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:04 pm

Rileybobs wrote:This isn’t a criticism because it’s entirely you’re choice whether or not you watch us, but if you did you’d know we don’t play three in midfield.

And one of them isn't Tarky.