40 points

[joey13]

Still struggling with English I see and why you're seen as a dickhead on this board.

Pot and kettle springs to mind

[dsr]

Said it before...to many decent teams down there...40 points may not be enough.

Last year, the average number of points for the clubs from 8th to 20th was less than 40. This year it will be similar, except that with 7th place getting fewer points than Everton did last year, the average may rise to 40.5 or so.

If the average of 14 clubs is 40.5 or so, then the chances of the 12th in order out of those 14 having 40 is pretty remote. Close to impossible, in fact.

[Claret82]

I doubt 40 will be enough.

I predict a record high for relegation points

[dsr]

I doubt 40 will be enough.

I predict a record high for relegation points

You don't get record highs for relegation points when there are a lot of evenly matched clubs. You get record highs when there are a couple of hopeless cases that are giving up cheap points to everyone, and when the top teams are having off years and dropping lots of points to the lower reaches.

The total number of available points is constant. Every point that the top 6 and the bottom 2 get, is a point that the other relegation candidates can't have.

[nil_desperandum]

I don't think we're in any danger of relegation, but I am one of those who suspects that someone might go down with 40 points.

[kendaldave]

Every team bar Stoke and West Brom are currently averaging a point per game or above. Even if that trend just continues on then it would put the team in 18th on 38 points. So still a little bit to do yet but we'd have lose nearly every game from now to the end of the season to get relegated from our current position.

[Spijed]

Every team bar Stoke and West Brom are currently averaging a point per game or above. Even if that trend just continues on then it would put the team in 18th on 38 points. So still a little bit to do yet but we'd have lose nearly every game from now to the end of the season to get relegated from our current position.

As it currently stands so are Southampton. They are on for just over 36 points at this rate.

[dsr]

Allowing for draws, there are about 1,050 points available for the 20 teams to share. Probably less, because we've already had 74 draws this season; multiplied up, that makes 105 draws and a total points of 1,035.

On current form, the top 6 will bag 465 of those points. The current bottom two, on current form, will get 65. This leaves 505 points for the other 12 teams.

If the lowest of those twelve teams gets 40 points, then the other 11 can average 42 each. But if (say) Leicester and Everton each get another 4 wins and a couple of draws, then there are fewer points for the rest - Everton 48 points and Leicester 49 would mean the remaining 9 safe clubs could average just less than 41 points. The bottom of the table would have to lok something like 30,35,40,40,40,40,40,41,41,41,42,43,48,49, and then the top 6. There just aren't any more spare points to go round.

[Spijed]

But if (say) Leicester and Everton each get another 4 wins and a couple of draws, then there are fewer points for the rest - Everton 48 points and Leicester 49 would mean the remaining 9 safe clubs could average just less than 41 points.

So it's in our interests to let Everton & Leicester beat us when we play them at home?

[Damo]

I said at the start of January, on the relegation thread that I fancied a team to go down with 40 points or more.
I think it's a lot less likely now though.
I couldn't find anyone who would give me odds on it a couple of weeks ago

[ClaretAndJew]

In the interest of odds, I managed to find William Hill offering 16/1 for us to not win another game all season.

[Spijed]

And 500/1 to go down

[dsr]

So it's in our interests to let Everton & Leicester beat us when we play them at home?

I'm not quite sure I'm getting my point across ...

[IanMcL]

Europa for us.

[Spijed]

With 11 matches to go it's perhaps worth looking at the table 11 games back.

The relegation places have only made up 5 points and considering we've been on such a difficult run, teams like Leicester haven't made too much of a dent in our points total.

[Ric_C]

Did the table predictor, as I was a bit bored, and came up with this. Interestingly according to my calculations, we have enough points already to stay up. Does anyone else want to try it and somehow come up with a scenario where we could go down? I doubt it (unless you massage the figures greatly)

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calc ... er-league/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

table.png (67.27 KiB) Viewed 1529 times

[Garnerssoap]

Are you lot mad we're going to Europe

[Spijed]

Good article by the BBC about whether 40 points are required?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Stalbansclaret]

Reading that article reminds you that 32 points would have kept us up in 2010 !

[Spijed]

"At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated," says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports."

So another two points more or less guarantees our safety.

[tiger76]

Hope we collect more than two points from the remaining games.Realistically Bournemouth and above are safe barring a freak set of results.

[Holtyclaret]

Also from the BBC article UTC

[edison]

Reading that article reminds you that 32 points would have kept us up in 2010 !

had we won one of those Wigan matches, or something like that

[edison]

Someone pointing out on the comments under that BBC article that Palace went down in 92/93 with 49 points, but there were 4 extra matches for everyone that season

[duncandisorderly]

Someone pointing out on the comments under that BBC article that Palace went down in 92/93 with 49 points, but there were 4 extra matches for everyone that season

That was the season they'd done a lap of honour with three games to go. Heh.

[edison]

I did not know that. That is pretty hilarious

[FactualFrank]

Compared to this stage last season, the 3rd from bottom (Boro) had 22 points. This season it's 26.

However, from 10th to 17th the gap is currently just 5 points. Last season the gap was 11 points. It appears that more teams are closer to a relegation battle than last season.

Whether this results in more cagier "6 pointers", and fewer goals scored and more boring draws, I don't know, but there definitely seems to be more competition in the bottom half. It could mean more points needed but it could equally mean there's more teams to drop severely in form and not pick many more points up between now and the end of the season.

I think 38 will be enough, but really, if we can't collect 2 points together between now and the end of the season, there's something wrong.

[KateR]

to put it in a nutshell we have less than 1% chance of being relegated with the points we have now due to the number of teams below us and the points they have. Bournemouth in 10th place have a 2% chance of being relegated.

I think the only question left is whether we finish in the top 10 or not! At he begging of the season most would have taken 17th place so sure it is a time to enjoy?

Yes like everyone I am disappointed with every loss and sometimes in the way we play but generally we are doing well and certainly any of the bottom 10 would swap places with us.