xG

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Claretto
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xG

Post by Claretto » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:04 pm

xG result for tonight: Fulham 1.92 vs. 1.57 Burnley.

We are currently last in the league in terms of actual vs xG conceded, having already conceded 2.6 goals more than we should've.

Last season we were #2 in the league, conceding 13 fewer goals than we should've. Second to Man Utd.

Time for Heaton?

Rick_Muller
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Re: xG

Post by Rick_Muller » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:08 pm

Claretto wrote:Time for Heaton?
Not necessarily - more likely time for our best and stable back 5 to begin to work together again. We need consistency and stability at the back as a foundation to build on, that’s what bought our success and that’s what we need again

SGr
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Re: xG

Post by SGr » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:09 pm

We’ve been the anomaly in the xG stat traditionally because we put bodies between the ball and goal, even from position where the expectation of scoring is “high”.

Today, we didn’t do that, we got dragged around the pitch and hit on the break. Hart wasn’t the problem today, the midfield and defence was.
These 2 users liked this post: Rick_Muller HS98

Claretto
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Re: xG

Post by Claretto » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:11 pm

SGr wrote:We’ve been the anomaly in the xG stat traditionally because we put bodies between the ball and goal, even from position where the expectation of scoring is “high”.

Today, we didn’t do that, we got dragged around the pitch and hit on the break. Hart wasn’t the problem today, the midfield and defence was.
Isn't the number of bodies between ball and goal factored into the expectation of scoring ?

Tall Paul
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Re: xG

Post by Tall Paul » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:13 pm

Claretto wrote:xG result for tonight: Fulham 1.92 vs. 1.57 Burnley.

We are currently last in the league in terms of actual vs xG conceded, having already conceded 2.6 goals more than we should've.

Last season we were #2 in the league, conceding 13 fewer goals than we should've. Second to Man Utd.

Time for Heaton?
This is actually a good sign, because it means we shouldn't have conceded as many goals as we have done and results should improve in the long term.

We'd be tenth in the table if it was done on expected goals.

Claretto
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Re: xG

Post by Claretto » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:17 pm

Tall Paul wrote:This is actually a good sign, because it means we shouldn't have conceded as many goals as we have done and results should improve in the long term.

We'd be tenth in the table if it was done on expected goals.
It's a good sign if we can revert to 0...hence the return of Heaton

IanMcL
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Re: xG

Post by IanMcL » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:39 pm

Heaton please.

Foulthrow
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Re: xG

Post by Foulthrow » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:20 pm

Is the xG rating not out for us because we’ve conceded some goals that wouldn’t normally be scored? Fulham’s first today, Gray and Hughes from Watford were all goals that you wouldn’t expect to go in.

Alanstevensonsgloves
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Re: xG

Post by Alanstevensonsgloves » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:52 am

I opened this presuming it was a thread about a bus route.

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