#politicslive

[martin_p]

Well we now have the Graham Brady amendment which if passed will put the ball firmly back in the EU's court. Id Bercow does not take this one first there will be a riot.

It’s a bit of a pointless amendment as it’s almost certainly what May is saying to the EU anyway.

[AndyClaret]

Good analysis of the recent euphoria amongst the ERG about the EU softening the Irish border issue

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/10 ... 7689055232" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

particularly liked this bit, so much for the EU being a united front.

[Lancasterclaret]

Yes, but its not exactly rocket science is it?

No one wants responsibility for a hard Irish border but it will have to be there in the event of the "No Deal"

[AndrewJB]

The small business owners I know all voted leave. For a variety of reasons. They can't all be committing business suicide can they? They must know something about what keeps their business taking over?

I suspect the divide between remain and leave follows geographic lines when it comes to small business, much as it did for ordinary people. It's only my own empirical evidence, but there were more brexit supporting small business owners in Kent and Essex (both counties of which voted leave), than in London (which voted remain).

Just as a measure of how far we've come, here's a link to the winner of the "Institute for Economic Affairs" (a hard right lobbying group) prize for best brexit idea back in 2014.

https://iea.org.uk/publications/researc ... -isolation" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Considered now, this would be howled down by the same people as "not being brexity enough" The people pushing for purity of brexit are doing so with the fervour of religious zealots, when only a couple of years ago many of the same people were telling the country not to worry about such a scenario happening because of course we'd sign a deal.

[dsr]

This is as simple and comprehensive an explanation of why WTO would be a disaster as you're likely to find. On the other hand, some people who weren't even alive at the time say that we got through the war so we can get through Brexit so I suppose it's all down to personal opinion who you believe.

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/sta ... 4545363973

It's not. It's entirely biased. Why would it mention all bad effects of the car tariffs, in that UK exports will be more expensive so all the UK exporters will move top the EU; but not mention that the same works the other way, and the exporters to the UK will move into the UK in about the same proportions? and why doesn't he mention that these fluctuations are dwarfed by exchange rate variations that happen unpredictably, and that at present we're on the "right" side of these exchange rate fluctuations and that's likely to remain so?

[martin_p]

It's not. It's entirely biased. Why would it mention all bad effects of the car tariffs, in that UK exports will be more expensive so all the UK exporters will move top the EU; but not mention that the same works the other way, and the exporters to the UK will move into the UK in about the same proportions? and why doesn't he mention that these fluctuations are dwarfed by exchange rate variations that happen unpredictably, and that at present we're on the "right" side of these exchange rate fluctuations and that's likely to remain so?

For a company based in the EU to move to the U.K. surely it only works if the majority of their market is in the U.K. and the majority of their suppliers are in the U.K. are there any such companies that aren’t already based in the U.K.?

[summitclaret]

It’s a bit of a pointless amendment as it’s almost certainly what May is saying to the EU anyway.

Not sure she has actually asked straight out.

[martin_p]

Not sure she has actually asked straight out.

Given it’s the potential indefinite nature of the backstop that’s one of the main issues if she hasn’t she’s an even worse leader than I thought!

The answer will be no anyway. The backstop is there to stop a hard border in Ireland. The EU aren’t going to agree to just let a hard border happen after a defined period of time if a trade deal hasn’t been agreed. That’s why the only thing that can stop the backstop is agreeing a trade deal, however long that takes.

[Burnley Ace]

But if there are multinationals who move out because of the tariffs on exports to the EU, there will also be multinationals who will move in because of tariffs to the UK. There are mirror image problems so there will be mirror image solutions.

No, it’s not a zero sum game!

If I am a multinational manufacturer, ignoring the non tariff costs and inconvenience, I will pay tariffs on any imported raw materials and then the cost of my product will be increased to any customer abroad, both in and out of the EU.

The only manufacturer business that won’t have any increased cost is one where all their raw materials are created in the U.K. from U.K. sourced materials and they don’t export the finished product.

Whilst we have an overall trade surplus with the EU that is because of our Services, it’s a deficit in manufactured goods

[dsr]

For a company based in the EU to move to the U.K. surely it only works if the majority of their market is in the U.K. and the majority of their suppliers are in the U.K. are there any such companies that aren’t already based in the U.K.?

Volkswagen and other German car manufacturers. No-one's talking about moving the entire business, just some of the manufacturing. Yon bloke talking about the disaster of Brexit says that car manufacturers will stop manufacturing in the UK for sales to the EU, and will move to the EU because of tariffs; if that's true, it will be equally true that car manufacturers would stop manufacturing in the EU for sales to the UK, and would move to the UK because of tariffs.

We are a net importer of cars. If manufacturers will move towards building factories in the region where the cars are going to be sold, then the UK will be a net gainer of jobs and investment.

[Lancasterclaret]

It **** all to do with tariffs, it will be because of difficulties and costs of the supply chain.

The companies are warning about a catastrophic "No Deal", because that disrupts the JIT systems that have been set up to maximise cost effectiveness in a very competetive market.

The problem is that Joan (74) and Ivor(68) who voted for Brexit don't understand that, don't care about it and think that is "Project Fear" because of people like Nigel (58) and Jacob (434) tell them it is.

[uni_queue]

Volkswagen and other German car manufacturers. No-one's talking about moving the entire business, just some of the manufacturing. Yon bloke talking about the disaster of Brexit says that car manufacturers will stop manufacturing in the UK for sales to the EU, and will move to the EU because of tariffs; if that's true, it will be equally true that car manufacturers would stop manufacturing in the EU for sales to the UK, and would move to the UK because of tariffs.

We are a net importer of cars. If manufacturers will move towards building factories in the region where the cars are going to be sold, then the UK will be a net gainer of jobs and investment.

Not quite - whilst there is an assembly opportunity in the uk we dont have the component infrastructure to support small scale production without importing maybe 60% of the content of a car - which would be subject to tariffs - so the cost to the UK buyer will increase anyway with possibly the loss of economies of scale - so we end up with more expensive cars but nothing to show for it.

[dsr]

It **** all to do with tariffs, it will be because of difficulties and costs of the supply chain.

The companies are warning about a catastrophic "No Deal", because that disrupts the JIT systems that have been set up to maximise cost effectiveness in a very competetive market.

The problem is that Joan (74) and Ivor(68) who voted for Brexit don't understand that, don't care about it and think that is "Project Fear" because of people like Nigel (58) and Jacob (434) tell them it is.

Are you saying that businesses in the UK can't work under Brexit because there is a possibility of disruption at the ports? I suppose it's lucky the French would never dream of going on strike and that there are never any storms over the Channel, then. Otherwise they would have closed down already.

[martin_p]

Are you saying that businesses in the UK can't work under Brexit because there is a possibility of disruption at the ports? I suppose it's lucky the French would never dream of going on strike and that there are never any storms over the Channel, then. Otherwise they would have closed down already.

If they happened all day every day then yes they would.

[CrosspoolClarets]

A hard border won’t be needed on April 1st of course.

It will take time to implement across all of the hundreds of crossing points, 6 months probably to build infrastructure and recruit staff. The WTO would accept that. Whether the EU do, well, that’s for them and Ireland to argue between themselves.

By that time no deal will probably have turned into a deal, making the border a big waste of money and unnecessary aggravation. That’s why we are hearing the pips squeaking in Brussels at the mo.

[Lancasterclaret]

If you don't mind showing us the evidence of any deal signed in six months between comparable economies that would be appreciated CC.

I think that is ridiculously optimistic, and I've got this awful feeling that you know it is but are happy to repeat it on here.

[randomclaret2]

Who are Joan and Ivor ?

[AndrewJB]

A hard border won’t be needed on April 1st of course.

It will take time to implement across all of the hundreds of crossing points, 6 months probably to build infrastructure and recruit staff. The WTO would accept that. Whether the EU do, well, that’s for them and Ireland to argue between themselves.

By that time no deal will probably have turned into a deal, making the border a big waste of money and unnecessary aggravation. That’s why we are hearing the pips squeaking in Brussels at the mo.

As Ivan Rogers points out in his speech from a couple of days ago:

"We are now being flogged the proposition that in order to move from a deep preferential
agreement - the supranational political, juridical and enforcement aspects of high you
deplore, but which gives you much the best trading terms with the bloc, above all in the
sectors in which you are highly competitive - to a less deep, but normal EU preferential
agreement which gives you substantially better access than WTO terms, the best route is
to go all the way out to WTO terms first.
Because that will give you the whip hand in negotiations with a bloc for which the
absence of any preferential deal covers a vastly lower proportion of its trade than it does
of yours.
And the bloc would therefore come begging for a new preferential deal, drop completely
its demand for the backstop, accept that technological and administrative solutions to
the border suffice, when they have repeatedly previously made clear they cannot, and
settle for much less than the money that the U.K. Prime Minister had already agreed to
pay if she got an acceptable Withdrawal Agreement – which she now publicly agrees she
has.
This stuff would make snake oil salesmen blush."

Those touting a clean break with the EU should read this:
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institut ... 012019.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AndrewJB]

And if this isn't enough, for us to trade with the EU, we'll have to accept EU standards in the areas we want to do business, governed by the EUCJ, and we'll have no say in the making of these rules. This is what taking back control looks like.

[Burnley Ace]

We are a net importer of cars. If manufacturers will move towards building factories in the region where the cars are going to be sold, then the UK will be a net gainer of jobs and investment.

What bit of tariffs and non tariff barriers aren’t you getting? There at least 4 different people trying to explain how tariffs on raw materials and components and finished exported goods will increase costs (never mind the non tariff regulatory barriers) and make it uncompetitive to operate in the U.K. and your response is that they will just open factories in the U.K. for the U.K. market!! In what universe does that make any sense???

[dsr]

If you don't mind showing us the evidence of any deal signed in six months between comparable economies that would be appreciated CC.

I think that is ridiculously optimistic, and I've got this awful feeling that you know it is but are happy to repeat it on here.

If the deal is free trade, exactly as we have now, it could be agreed in 6 hours rather than 6 months. But while in trade terms (which is all you seem to think matters as far as the UK is concerned) that deal makes sense for both sides, in political terms (which is of overrriding importance as far as the EU is concerned), the EU does not want other countries to realise that a free trade organisation like the EEC would be preferable to the EU as it is now.

There are few cases of amicable (ie. non-war) splits between political bodies, really. Czechoslovakia did it, and I don't think the trade agreement caused any problems at all. Free trade was taken for granted, and only the share-out of assets was under discussion. Norway and Sweden did it too, but as that was in 1904, I don't think it's a useful parallel!

There was never any suggestion that Scotland and England would have big falling-out dos over trade, though as we can now tell from the EU attitude, if one party or the other was outside the EU (as Scotland would have been to start with, anyway) there would have been no end of trouble such as rebuilding Hadrian's Wall or a modern equivalent. Canada had a similar vote with the vote on the secession of Quebec, though again it was defeated; would there have been big walls all over Canada and a huge and fruitless argument over trade terms? Maybe Ontario claret has a view.

If there is not goodwill on both sides, as there clearly isn't here, a trade deal would take forever. The EU-Canada deal took 7 years to work out when there was goodwill on both sides. When the side that doesn't want free trade is also the side that has an absolute veto over every term in the agreement, as the EU would under May's deal, then there would never be an agreement at all.

[TVC15]

Volkswagen and other German car manufacturers. No-one's talking about moving the entire business, just some of the manufacturing. Yon bloke talking about the disaster of Brexit says that car manufacturers will stop manufacturing in the UK for sales to the EU, and will move to the EU because of tariffs; if that's true, it will be equally true that car manufacturers would stop manufacturing in the EU for sales to the UK, and would move to the UK because of tariffs.

We are a net importer of cars. If manufacturers will move towards building factories in the region where the cars are going to be sold, then the UK will be a net gainer of jobs and investment.

It’s just dawned on me - you are Boris Johnson. Did you fail your GCSE in Economics ?

[Lancasterclaret]

(which is all you seem to think matters as far as the UK is concerned)

Yup, because "control of laws, our country and our borders" is meaningless, especially when it looks like we'll be giving away "control of laws, our country and our borders" to stop a reciprocal freedom of movement.

And if the economy doesn't tank, then my country won't be riven by civil unrest.

But yeah, its not that important eh?

[CrosspoolClarets]

If you don't mind showing us the evidence of any deal signed in six months between comparable economies that would be appreciated CC.

I think that is ridiculously optimistic, and I've got this awful feeling that you know it is but are happy to repeat it on here.

It isn’t the final deal that would be agreed within 6 months, it would be the delayed transition arrangement, following a series of mini deals. I actually think 2 months would be most probable.

[Lancasterclaret]

For a full trade deal?

I agree that the transition period should be as long as it needs to be, and we at least agree that a deal is better than "No Deal" (well, at least I think we do) but a full trade deal between the UK and the EU will take longer than that.

[CrosspoolClarets]

As Ivan Rogers points out in his speech from a couple of days ago:
...

...Those touting a clean break with the EU should read this:
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institut ... 012019.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I’ve taken out the bulk of the lengthy quote, but I agree, that is why I don’t want a no deal, though I’m not scared of one, it takes two to tango and we cannot agree to a deal that shackles us. If we can avoid this though, we should sign it.

P.s. the reply to Lancs above - I expect a full trade deal to take 2-3 years. A transition deal maybe 2-6 months. I.e. the Withdrawal agreement adjusted for a few things if we are after March 30th.

[Lancasterclaret]

Again, what trade deal between comparable economies get arranged in that timescale?

Worth reminding everyone that a transitional agreement only comes into play if we agree a deal.

See yet another Conservative MP has made a complete prick of himself again today.

[Spiral]

3 years lol

[RingoMcCartney]

No his role wasn’t pivotal. What has it changed? I asked you this once before and you didn’t answer. He acted within his remit, it’s his job to serve parliament not the government. And if you’re going to argue his role is pivotal then something has to ‘pivot’.

This is you Marty saying his role hasn't been "pivotal"

[RingoMcCartney]

He’s done exactly what I said he can do, decide on which amendments to allow. If you can link where I’ve said otherwise then feel free.

This is you Marty admitting that he can "decide" on which amendments to allow.

Previously, our conversation had gone-


Ringo McCartney-

"Bercow is being kept on place to "Stop Brexit". His role will be pivotal"

Martin p -

"You do know it's not Bercow that will define what the vote is don't you? He's just the the facilitator Wrongo"

You going to admit you were wrong and my prediction was prohpehetic.?

[Devils_Advocate]

For anybody interested in the smell of desperation see the above two posts

Bring out your dead

[RingoMcCartney]

You didn't answer my question. Why are Remoaners frightened of democracy being enacted and the uk leaving the EU? Is it because they're scared of all their predictions economic catastrophe being proven wrong and them looking daft?

You still haven't answered this-

Ringo McCartney-

"Bercow is being kept on place to "Stop Brexit". His role will be pivotal"

Martin p -

"You do know it's not Bercow that will define what the vote is don't you? He's just the the facilitator Ringo"

You going to admit you were wrong and my prediction was prohpehetic.?

[RingoMcCartney]

He’s done exactly what I said he can do, decide on which amendments to allow. If you can link where I’ve said otherwise then feel free.

[RingoMcCartney]

No his role wasn’t pivotal. What has it changed? I asked you this once before and you didn’t answer. He acted within his remit, it’s his job to serve parliament not the government. And if you’re going to argue his role is pivotal then something has to ‘pivot’.

[nil_desperandum]

So in a final act of defiance and desperation Ringo decided to engage in a thread in which he's the only participant.
This is one argument he's sure to win.
Ringo 1 Ringo 1 ... or maybe not.

[RingoMcCartney]

So in a final act of defiance and desperation Ringo decided to engage in a thread in which he's the only participant.
This is one argument he's sure to win.
Ringo 1 Ringo 1 ... or maybe not.

Nothing desperate in simply highlighting that somebody did actually say the things they said. If they're now saying they didn't.

Ringo and the truth( got their debut album) 1. Martin_p 0

[TheFamilyCat]

So in a final act of defiance and desperation Ringo decided to engage in a thread in which he's the only participant.
This is one argument he's sure to win.
Ringo 1 Ringo 1 ... or maybe not.

Ringo arguing with himself has 0-0aet written all over it, followed by a lengthy penalty shoot-out in which neither team scores. When it stops being funny, the crowd slip into a boredom-endured coma.