Hurricane Irma

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:41 am

starting_11 wrote:Don't worry, The Donald's on the case!

They did try to combat Hurricanes and cyclones with Cloud Seeding, operation 'Stormfury' feeding various compounds as dry ice, to lessen the power.
limited success so yes they tried so next step Nuke em.

NRC · Post by **NRC** » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:24 pm

so the Florida Keys already under mandatory evacuation, and Miami-Dade County (Miami) currently voluntary, but it's expected to firm up to mandatory tomorrow.

Problem is there are no flights out available at all - last schedule flight standing is at about 3pm local tomorrow, and one third of gas stations reporting completely out of fuel - so you have to wait in line for hours at a pump that could run out, and then you're stranded.

Meanwhile panic buying at stores. Local authorities and FEMA talking to the supermarket chains to ensure they're shipping in supplies - perishables and water....

Governor is expecting a 10 feet storm surge - that's a LOT on the Florida coast.

(edit:) Georgia, east of I-95 corridor now under mandatory evacuation - and that includes Savannah

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:43 pm

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:49 pm

No. Nuking a hurricane wouldn't do a thing unless maybe you nuke it off the coast of Africa just after the butterfly has started it. Just consider the blast radius of any nuclear bomb you'd want to detonate in a hurricane and then consider that Irma is 400 miles wide.

Anyway. Here's a cool video showing the different forecasts between the US models and the European models. They both show that south Florida is pretty f*cked, just in slightly different ways.

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:07 pm

I can't quite work out why they say it's going to turn Sharpley north, and follow Florida. They may be right but apparently it will choose the route of sea rather than land and is turning anti clockwise which would suggest if the eye travels between North of Cuba and the South of Florida that it would travel into the Gulf of Mexico, in the direction of Houston!
Hey what do I know, I'm just guessing are they just doing the same.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:13 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:I can't quite work out why they say it's going to turn Sharpley north, and follow Florida. They may be right but apparently it will choose the route of sea rather than land and is turning anti clockwise which would suggest if the eye travels between North of Cuba and the South of Florida that it would travel into the Gulf of Mexico, in the direction of Houston!
Hey what do I know, I'm just guessing are they just doing the same.

Lol. No they're not just guessing. The hurricane will follow the path of least resistance, models are used to forecast what that path will be.

And all hurricanes in the northern hemisphere spin anti-clockwise.

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:28 pm

Mrs dads in orlando at min and said its still.as busy as ever

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:47 pm

Seen a lot of posts by liberals saying this is karma or deserved because the red states are responsible for Trump, including Jenifer Lawrence.

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:48 pm

And all hurricanes in the northern hemisphere spin anti-clockwise.[/quote]

Obviously! Anyone knows that..:-/

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:49 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:Seen a lot of posts by liberals saying this is karma or deserved because the red states are responsible for Trump, including Jenifer Lawrence.

How do you know they're liberals?

Want so see some of the things said about Heather Heyer by people who definitely weren't liberals, or is the political leanings of assholes only relevent when they're opposed to you?

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:52 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:How do you know they're liberals?

It's the armband with a star on it that Trump has made them wear that gives them away

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:36 pm

The only funny evacuation.

Silkyskills1 · Post by **Silkyskills1** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:45 pm

My niece lives in Charleston, South Carolina and the evacuation there begins 10am their time tomorrow. Her husband is a doctor and has been instructed to stay within 100 miles of the city but she and three very young children are on their way to New York, the family home of her husband.

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:58 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:How do you know they're liberals?

Want so see some of the things said about Heather Heyer by people who definitely weren't liberals, or is the political leanings of assholes only relevent when they're opposed to you?

They usually have it in their twitter bios

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:03 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:They usually have it in their twitter bios

And you think the reason they act like assholes is because they are liberals? I'm trying to understand why their political leanings are important enough to you to be the only detail about them you include in your post.

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:18 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:And you think the reason they act like assholes is because they are liberals? I'm trying to understand why their political leanings are important enough to you to be the only detail about them you include in your post.

Because their warped ramblings are entirely politically motivated?

FulledgeClaret · Post by **FulledgeClaret** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:02 pm

What is it with this forum, its a thread about a hurricane that has and will take more lives and it still decends into politics.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:07 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:Because their warped ramblings are entirely politically motivated?

No, they're asshole motivated. The fact that they're assholes has nothing to do with them being liberals.

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:41 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:No, they're asshole motivated. The fact that they're assholes has nothing to do with them being liberals.

They are assholes, no doubt about it. But when they are specifically saying they don't care or it's deserved because it's affecting people who mostly voted for trump you have to say it's political and they are most likely liberals (or at least identify as liberals)

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:53 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:They are assholes, no doubt about it. But when they are specifically saying they don't care or it's deserved because it's affecting people who mostly voted for trump you have to say it's political and they are most likely liberals (or at least identify as liberals)

So just to clear this up when someone from the right mocks murdered left-wing protesters it has nothing to do with them being from the right, but when someone from the left mocks the right for having to flee a hurricane it has everything to do with them being from the left. Cool.

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:12 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:So just to clear this up when someone from the right mocks murdered left-wing protesters it has nothing to do with them being from the right, but when someone from the left mocks the right for having to flee a hurricane it has everything to do with them being from the left. Cool.

Never said it didn't. It's exactly the same when someone from the right mocks murdered left wing protestors. I ain't no hypocritic Turtle. I despise repugnant extremism and hate on both sides.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:14 pm

Will the tail end of this horrendous weather reach us?

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:26 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:Never said it didn't. It's exactly the same when someone from the right mocks murdered left wing protestors. I ain't no hypocritic Turtle. I despise repugnant extremism and hate on both sides.

And yet you seem to think there's a causal connection between being a liberal or being a conservative and being an asshole. Why else would you mention their political leanings instead of just calling them assholes?

conyoviejo · Post by **conyoviejo** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:33 pm

The Hurricanes are queuing up off the coast of Florida .. Another one in the pipeline,but only a paltry 4 on the hurricane scale.. It might get to 5 by the time it reaches Florida though.. Mass evacuations adviced ASAP

Saxoman · Post by **Saxoman** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:39 pm

conyoviejo wrote:The Hurricanes are queuing up off the coast of Florida .. Another one in the pipeline,but only a paltry 4 on the hurricane scale.. It might get to 5 by the time it reaches Florida though.. Mass evacuations adviced ASAP

You sound disappointed its dropped to 4, almost willing it back up to 5..?

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:53 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:And yet you seem to think there's a causal connection between being a liberal or being a conservative and being an asshole. Why else would you mention their political leanings instead of just calling them assholes?

OK, fine, they are just assholes. I don't like saying assholes though, too American. Prefer tw*ts.

BennyD · Post by **BennyD** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:42 pm

Sh!t happens; they live in a Caribbean paradise for years at a time with unbroken sunshine, high temperatures and a fantastic situation. However, the downside is a occasional hurricane which blows their house down. Personally, I'd rather live in our disturbed temperate climate which doesn't have such big swings between normal and sh!t happens. Be there, cope and stop f*cking moaning.

ontario claret · Post by **ontario claret** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:43 pm

Can't wait for Sunday, so we can get back to something real, like football, both English and American.

ontario claret · Post by **ontario claret** » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:44 pm

And Denmark wants the USVI back. We only sold it because we were hard up during the blockade during WW1.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:28 am

A bit of macabre pride for us Europeans as our models are so far more accurate than the US models for this storm. US models had Irma's eye going up the east coast of florida while the European's had it heading more west. It's heading more west. Still going to **** things up on the east coast but now it looks like Naples, Venice and Tampa that's going to take the direct hit.

One of the things i didn't know but do now is that part of why our models are typically more accurate is because our models only do two forecasts a day versus America's 4. That means more computer time goes into them. It's not a big deal when the differences aren't that big like this storm but it mattered for Hurricane Sandy 5 years ago. the U.S. models had it turning back out to sea but the European models had it turning back into the U.S hitting NJ and NY, which it did.

Here's a video for the next time some ignorant moron whines "but models are inaccurate" or "anyone can model something when it's already happened". This is from 5th September and he shows how the models show the hurricane's forecasted path over the following 5 days.

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:05 pm

I see Hurricane Jose is on its way too. Horrendous.

mohamed69 · Post by **mohamed69** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:57 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:A bit of macabre pride for us Europeans as our models are so far more accurate than the US models for this storm. US models had Irma's eye going up the east coast of florida while the European's had it heading more west. It's heading more west. Still going to **** things up on the east coast but now it looks like Naples, Venice and Tampa that's going to take the direct hit.

One of the things i didn't know but do now is that part of why our models are typically more accurate is because our models only do two forecasts a day versus America's 4. That means more computer time goes into them. It's not a big deal when the differences aren't that big like this storm but it mattered for Hurricane Sandy 5 years ago. the U.S. models had it turning back out to sea but the European models had it turning back into the U.S hitting NJ and NY, which it did.

Here's a video for the next time some ignorant moron whines "but models are inaccurate" or "anyone can model something when it's already happened". This is from 5th September and he shows how the models show the hurricane's forecasted path over the following 5 days.

#leave

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:23 pm

"No storm on record, anywhere on the globe, has maintained winds 185mph or above for as long as Irma" - CNN twitter account

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:45 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:"No storm on record, anywhere on the globe, has maintained winds 185mph or above for as long as Irma" - CNN twitter account

still not convinced it's gonna turn North, Yanks won't like not being the centre of attention.
At least the feature film will still set in Florida, and it will race North hitting New York and the DC
Jose may be their best chance
They are all - Me Me hit me

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:06 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:still not convinced it's gonna turn North, Yanks won't like not being the centre of attention.
At least the feature film will still set in Florida, and it will race North hitting New York and the DC
Jose may be their best chance
They are all - Me Me hit me

All models show Irma heading north into Florida. No models show Jose reaching the U.S. and you think Jose's more likely to hit them?

I mean, ok. But i bet you're wrong.

wickdkewlclaret · Post by **wickdkewlclaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:10 pm

Down to a CAT 3! Let's hope it reduces further!

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:19 pm

wickdkewlclaret wrote:Down to a CAT 3! Let's hope it reduces further!

Expected to climb to cat 4 by the time the eye hits Key West.

ontario claret · Post by **ontario claret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:20 pm

The good news is that it's only going to side-swipe Miami, although bad enough. Crosshairs are on Orlando now, apparently. Hope that FCBurnley will be OK.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:24 pm

ontario claret wrote:The good news is that it's only going to side-swipe Miami, although bad enough. Crosshairs are on Orlando now, apparently. Hope that FCBurnley will be OK.

He'll go ape-**** at you for that.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:37 pm

if it moves further west it will spend more time over the water and will strengthen even more. It's just now a case of where it makes land

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:02 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:All models show Irma heading north into Florida. No models show Jose reaching the U.S. and you think Jose's more likely to hit them?

I mean, ok. But i bet you're wrong.

Jose, is smaller admittedly but is just north of Irma s track and is only slightly less powerful than Irma was at that point and it's direction just 5 or 10 degrees more northerly, so?
Irma has been travelling at 280 to 290 WNW for 4 days it would need to do 45 degree turn to hit Florida.
If the forecast say it will, that's fine BUT I NEED A REASON?`

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:09 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:Jose, is smaller admittedly but is just north of Irma s track and is only slightly less powerful than Irma was at that point and it's direction just 5 or 10 degrees more northerly, so?
Irma has been travelling at 280 to 290 WNW for 4 days it would need to do 45 degree turn to hit Florida.
If the forecast say it will, that's fine BUT I NEED A REASON?`

Every model showing you you're wrong isn't a good enough reason?

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:13 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote: Every model showing you you're wrong isn't a good enough reason?

I need the science
and
that's your job on here

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:13 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote: Every model showing you you're wrong isn't a good enough reason?

I need the science
and
that's your job on here

joey13 · Post by **joey13** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:14 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:Jose, is smaller admittedly but is just north of Irma s track and is only slightly less powerful than Irma was at that point and it's direction just 5 or 10 degrees more northerly, so?
Irma has been travelling at 280 to 290 WNW for 4 days it would need to do 45 degree turn to hit Florida.
If the forecast say it will, that's fine BUT I NEED A REASON?`

The warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the slightly cooler water from the Everglades will change the course of Irma to the North

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:15 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:I need the science
and
that's your job on here

Actually, models are maths.

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:23 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:Actually, models are maths.

Erm yeah.... :-/ that'd be why I need the science.
Math says it's travelling at 280 degrees WNW and that''s not the direction of Florida

joey13 · Post by **joey13** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:34 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:Erm yeah.... :-/ that'd be why I need the science.
Math says it's travelling at 280 degrees WNW and that''s not the direction of Florida

I've just told you !

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:38 pm

mmh.. the wind in the Gulf of Mexico is a North Easterly 45 degrees but at 21mph gusting to 30 can it change the route of Hurricane with it's anti clockwise winds at 132mph,.
Pressure is 1006 Irmas is 964 and wind blows from high pressure to low but is the Gulf low because of Katia, again is that significant enough for Irma to change 45 degrees?

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:40 pm

joey13 wrote:I've just told you !

Ah Joey thanks just seen it.... but it's up in the air surely wind and pressure are it's masters?