Self-preservation will come before all - I agree. The anti-Brexit Tories don't want their barely-Brexit to fall at the last hurdle, but they also don't want to lose their seats. How many of the Remain camp, whether fanatical or lukewarm think that May is going to lead the Tories to victory at the next election?nil_desperandum wrote:So go on then.
Assuming they can find the 48 (I believe that's the number) MPs to trigger a leadership election, who would stand against May?
There were apparently only 7 Cabinet ministers who opposed May's "deal". (Out of 27)
Johnson would not stand at this point, since his career would be over if he lost, (and he probably doesn't really believe he could see brexit through anyway. He's an opportunist.)
Leadsom might have a go. Davis can't stand I don't think, and Gove has changed sides.
Backbencher JRM might be persuaded to stand, but if he did, then how many Tory MPs would actually vote for him?.
The left / soft brexiteers wouldn't field a candidate against May for fear of splitting the vote, and weakening her position. (It's already weak enough as she relies on the DUP and tries to keep all sides happy).
Weakening May's position could potentially lead to a vote of confidence and the govt. falling. The Tories greatest fear is losing power to Corbyn, and self-preservation will come before all. The whips would be out in force for May.
And if it comes to a vote of confidence, with a 3-line whip and the DUP not happy, she could lose it anyway, even with 100% Tory support. The more I think of it, the more I think she'll be gone by Christmas. (And hopefully, gone by the time of the World Cup Final.)