Magic Numbers 2022/23

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 33

21/02/2023

Millwall 1-1 Burnley

Burnley
Sheffield Utd……………-1………..31
Middlesbrough…………-1…………24
Blackburn………………..-1…………19
Millwall…………………..-3………….20
Luton……………………….-1…………20
Watford…………………….-1……….17
Sunderland……………….-4……….16
Norwich……………………-1………..16
West Brom……………….-1…………15
Coventry………………….-1………..15
Swansea…………………..-4………..9
Hull………………………….-1………..9
Preston…………………….-1………12
Bristol City………………-1………..11
Reading…………………..-1………..11
Stoke……………………….-1………..7
QPR………………………….-1………..6
Birmingham……………..-4………..5
Rotherham……………….-1………..3
Cardiff……………………..-1………..2
Huddersfield…………….-1………..1
Blackpool………………….-4………..-2
Wigan………………………..-1………1

UTC

[bfcmik]

A win today will see 5 teams drop from that list, possibly with either QPR or Brum dropping off as well depending on their results. It will be nice to be mathematically safe from relegation

[Paul Waine]

A win today will see 5 teams drop from that list, possibly with either QPR or Brum dropping off as well depending on their results. It will be nice to be mathematically safe from relegation

Pretty sure all teams stay on the list, it's just that the final number will appear as a negative number. Blackpool is already showing -2 in the list above.

UTC

[FCBurnley]

Boro down to 18.

[Commy]

I think it needs fixing again . It says lowest possible finish is 23rd.

[bfcmik]

I think it needs fixing again . It says lowest possible finish is 23rd.

Pretty sure it just needs today's results entering into the table - then it will show our lowest finish as 17th

[Commy]

Pretty sure it just needs today's results entering into the table - then it will show our lowest finish as 17th

It's got the highest poss finish right but not the lowest.

[Tricky Trevor]

After today.WOW.

91AE5FC3-DDD4-43B2-8D15-B8F2C26F7DFD.jpeg (212.02 KiB) Viewed 5066 times

[scouseclaret]

Seven teams dropped off with 12 games to go!

Pity that Rovers games will probably be rearranged as there is a really good chance that we could have won promotion there…

[roperclaret]

I’ll be disappointed if we get less than 112 points

[agreenwood]

So we’re up with 6 win from 12 - not that we’ll need to win that many.

[Croydon Claret]

If one of those wins is against Boro then we'll only need 5 wins?

[aggi]

I think it needs fixing again . It says lowest possible finish is 23rd.

Ah yes, my solution wasn't quite right. Now properly fixed.

[Dark Cloud]

Almost unbelievable how QPR are a club on zero. Not long before Christmas they were one of the clubs challenging at the top and even when we went there in December I felt they were a dangerous opponent who were hovering around the play offs. We absolutely blew them away that day and it seems they've imploded ever since.

[Commy]

Ah yes, my solution wasn't quite right. Now properly fixed.

Thanks, you are doing a grand job

[arise_sir_charge]

If one of those wins is against Boro then we'll only need 5 wins?

I’m not sure but would a win against not mean it becomes 4, ie it’s a 6 pointer?

[Commy]

I’m not sure but would a win against not mean it becomes 4, ie it’s a 6 pointer?

Their Magic Number would then be 12 so that is 4 wins to the big 0.

[CrosspoolClarets]

I try really hard to see the relevance of this feature since it is so popular, but coming from somebody who has trained statisticians about better use of statistics for many years, I just don’t see it. Sorry. I know what it is telling us but I don’t see the relevance. A 10 year old can work out the maximum points each side can get.

The reality is we may already have enough for promotion, 2 wins would probably do it, and if we were pessimistic it may be 4 wins. One bookmaker has us as 1/1000, these magic numbers simply don’t portray those probabilities, they make people still feel nervous, which is silly.

We are up in all but name. The title, I wouldn’t say that yet, but nearly.

[Commy]

I try really hard to see the relevance of this feature since it is so popular, but coming from somebody who has trained statisticians about better use of statistics for many years, I just don’t see it. Sorry. I know what it is telling us but I don’t see the relevance. A 10 year old can work out the maximum points each side can get.

The reality is we may already have enough for promotion, 2 wins would probably do it, and if we were pessimistic it may be 4 wins. One bookmaker has us as 1/1000, these magic numbers simply don’t portray those probabilities, they make people still feel nervous, which is silly.

We are up in all but name. The title, I wouldn’t say that yet, but nearly.

We know it isn't absolutely true as teams take points off each other but it's fun watching the numbers and possible positions change.

[distortiondave]

Almost unbelievable how QPR are a club on zero. Not long before Christmas they were one of the clubs challenging at the top and even when we went there in December I felt they were a dangerous opponent who were hovering around the play offs. We absolutely blew them away that day and it seems they've imploded ever since.

Yes. Our first game back after the World Cup and it felt like any positive result would be a good result - like a 1-1 away from home or something, first game back after the world cup, then christmas and the new year period and take it from there - but we hammered them and we've carried on beating more or less everyone and QPR have folded.
Could be relegation fodder were it not for Huddersfield, Wigan and Blackpool being so bad

[Tricky Trevor]

Almost unbelievable how QPR are a club on zero. Not long before Christmas they were one of the clubs challenging at the top and even when we went there in December I felt they were a dangerous opponent who were hovering around the play offs. We absolutely blew them away that day and it seems they've imploded ever since.

They fell off a cliff after Beale was interviewed for the Wolves job. Even though he turned it down they never got going again and then he took the Rangers job.
My tip for the top two pre-season.

[evensteadiereddie]

I try really hard to see the relevance of this feature since it is so popular, but coming from somebody who has trained statisticians about better use of statistics for many years, I just don’t see it. Sorry. I know what it is telling us but I don’t see the relevance. A 10 year old can work out the maximum points each side can get.

The reality is we may already have enough for promotion, 2 wins would probably do it, and if we were pessimistic it may be 4 wins. One bookmaker has us as 1/1000, these magic numbers simply don’t portray those probabilities, they make people still feel nervous, which is silly.

We are up in all but name. The title, I wouldn’t say that yet, but nearly.

Ah but the reality is that we "may" already have enough for promotion but so is the reality that we "may" not.
Whether the bookies odds are 1/10, 1/100, 1/10,000,000 is neither here nor there, the figure they offer is an indication of, in their collective experience, how likely we are to go up.

The Magic Numbers do give an interesting indication, match by match, of how rapidly promotion is approaching and what is required.
How folk interpret them is up to them I guess.

Of course a ten year old could do it, is that the point?

The figures are there on the spreadsheet, changing by the game, and it's an even better watch now that teams are dropping off the scale.

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 34

25/02/2023

Burnley 4-0 Huddersfield

Burnley
Sheffield Utd……………..-3……………………....28
Middlesbrough…………..-6…………………..18
Blackburn…………………..-3……………....16
Millwall………………………-3…………………..17
Luton………………………….-3……………….…17
Norwich……………………..-3……………….13
Watford……………………..-6…………….11
Sunderland………………..-6……………10
West Brom…………………-3……………..12
Coventry…………………..-3……………..12
Preston……………………..-3…………….9
Bristol City……………….-3……………8
Reading…………………….-3……………8
Swansea…………………..-3………….6
Hull…………………………..-6..….3
Stoke………………………..-6……1



QPR…………………………..-6……0
Birmingham………………-6………-1
Rotherham……………….-3…….0
Cardiff……………………..-6………...-4
Huddersfield……………-6…………...-5
Blackpool………………..-6……………..…-8
Wigan……………………..-6…………...-5

UTC

[Clarets4me]

I try really hard to see the relevance of this feature since it is so popular, but coming from somebody who has trained statisticians about better use of statistics for many years, I just don’t see it. Sorry. I know what it is telling us but I don’t see the relevance. A 10 year old can work out the maximum points each side can get.

The reality is we may already have enough for promotion, 2 wins would probably do it, and if we were pessimistic it may be 4 wins. One bookmaker has us as 1/1000, these magic numbers simply don’t portray those probabilities, they make people still feel nervous, which is silly.

We are up in all but name. The title, I wouldn’t say that yet, but nearly.

Glad to know a man versed in statistics considers that promotion is virtually assured. I know that it's not over until " The fat lady sings ", but she's surely gargling the Listerine and approaching the microphone stand as we speak ...

As we all know statistics can " prove anything " , two favourite examples being that Devon Malcolm has hit more Test match 6's than Sir Don Bradman, and that Jonathan Agnew has a better strike rate in One Day Internationals than Geoff Boycott. I can also reveal that " Beehole Claret ", one our brethren, can put his hand on his heart and say during his entire Lancashire League batting career, which spanned 1978-1980, he was only ever dismissed by the opposition " Pro ", no amateur ever prised him from the crease ....

[Vince Fontaine]

After the 3 midweek matches 6 teams lose 2 more off their magic number

Millwall……-2…..15
Luton………-2…….15
Coventry…-2…….10
Preston…..-2……..7
Swansea…-2………4


Rotherham..-2….-2

UTC

[The Centre Spot]

After the 3 midweek matches 6 teams lose 2 more off their magic number

Millwall……-2…..15
Luton………-2…….15
Coventry…-2…….10
Preston…..-2……..7
Swansea…-2………4


Rotherham..-2….-2

UTC

Following this weekend's results, any chance you could publish the full table please?

[bfcmik]

Magic Numbers 4.3.23.JPG (81.11 KiB) Viewed 3871 times

Copy of the current page

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 35

04/03/2023

Blackpool 0-0 Burnley


Burnley
Sheffield Utd …………..-4…………24
Middlesbrough ………….-1………17
Blackburn ………………..-1……..15
Luton ……………………….-1……..14
Norwich …………………..-1…….12
Millwall …………………..-4…..11
Coventry ……………..….-1…..9
Watford ……………………-3….8
Sunderland ……………..-4…6
West Brom …………..….-4….8
Preston ……………………-3..4
Hull …………………………-1.2
Bristol City …………….-4..4
Reading ………………….-4..4



Stoke……………………..-1……0
Swansea …………….….-4……0
Rotherham …………….-1………-3
Birmingham …………..-3……….-4
QPR ……………………….-4……….-4
Cardiff …………………..-1………..-5
Blackpool ………………-3…………………-11
Wigan ……………………-3……………..-8
Huddersfield …………-4……………….-9

UTC

[aggi]

Following this weekend's results, any chance you could publish the full table please?

Full table can be seen at the link

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[Rick_Muller]

I think we struggle to make the play offs now…

[Clarets4me]

After each team has played 35 games ....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

[No Ney Never]

After each team has played 35 games ....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Any chance you could post the list as a post on here, the spreadsheet is not very easy to read on a mobile. Thanks.

[Clarets4me]

Much abbreviated version, with points, goal difference & " Magic Number " ... all teams played 35/46 games

1 Burnley 77 40
2 Sheff Utd 67 25 24
3 Middlesbrough 60 21 17
4 Blackburn 58 1 15
5 Luton 57 9 14
6 Norwich 55 12 12
7 Millwall 54 7 11
8 Coventry 52 7 9
9 West Brom 51 7 8
10 Watford 51 3 8
11 Sunderland 49 7 6
12 Preston North End 47 (8) 4
13 Bristol City 45 0 2
14 Hull 45 (8) 2
15 Reading 44 (16) 1
16 Stoke 43 2 0
17 Swansea 43 (5) 0
18 Rotherham 40 (7) -3
19 Birmingham 39 (8) -4
20 QPR 39 (16) -4
21 Cardiff 38 (11) -5
22 Blackpool 32 (18) -11
23 Huddersfield 32 (21) -11
24 Wigan 32 (23) -11

[Clarets4me]

Any chance you could post the list as a post on here, the spreadsheet is not very easy to read on a mobile. Thanks.

See previous post, hope that's better ....

[aggi]

Any chance you could post the list as a post on here, the spreadsheet is not very easy to read on a mobile. Thanks.

This link should be easier to read on mobile

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

[Goobs]

So in theory we could be promoted in 3 games time if results went for us?

[No Ney Never]

This link should be easier to read on mobile

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

Thanks.

[Vince Fontaine]

Up to date with the midweek matches. All teams have now played 35 matches.

Burnley
Sheffield Utd……,……………………24
Middlesbrough….,……………17
Blackburn………..,……………15
Luton……………….,…………..14
Norwich…………..,…………12
Millwall……………,…………11
Coventry………….,………9
West Brom……….,…..…8
Watford……………,……..8
Sunderland……..,……6
Preston…………….,….4
Bristol City………-2..2
Hull….……………….,..2
Reading…………..-3.1

Stoke……………….0
Swansea…………..0
Rotherham………….-3
Birmingham………….-4
QPR……………………….-4
Cardiff…………………..-5
Blackpool……………………-11
Huddersfield……-2……….-11
Wigan……………..-3……….-11

UTC

[Tricky Trevor]

Not long now, guys.
7 wins in 10 will get us to 100 points

DE83E412-B54F-4861-BAE3-A67649A021BE.jpeg (206.35 KiB) Viewed 2582 times

[Paul Waine]

Sheff Utd drop 6, Boro 3 and Luton 3. They are the only teams with double figures magic numbers. Another 8 have got positive magic numbers. Burnley have already finished ahead of the remaining 12 teams. Not bad position with 10 games to play.

UTC

[Commy]

Not long before we are guaranteed play offs

[distortiondave]

14 points from the last 10 games is all we need.

[bfcmik]

If we natch Boro's points over the next 2 games then a win on Good Friday at their place would see us promoted!

If we match Sheff Utd's point total over the next 3 games then a win over them on Easter Monday would see us as Champions

(Assuming I have done the maths right )

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 36

11/03/2023

Burnley 3-0 Wigan

Burnley
Sheffield Utd …………-6…………………..18
Middlesbrough ………-3……………….14
Luton …………………….-3…………….11
Blackburn ………………-6…………..9
Millwall ………………….-3………….8
Norwich ………………..-6………..6
West Brom ……………-3……….5
Coventry ……………….-5………4
Sunderland ……………-3……..3
Watford ………………..-6…….2
Preston ………………….-3……1




Bristol City …………….-3………….-1
Stoke ……………….……-3……………-3
Hull ……………………….-5……………-3
Reading ………………….-6…………….-5
Swansea ………………..-6………………-6
Birmingham …………..-3……………..-7
QPR ………………………..-3…………….-7
Rotherham …………….-6……………..-9
Cardiff …………………..-6…………….-11
Blackpool ………………-6………………-17
Huddersfield ………….-6…………….-17
Wigan……………………..-6…………….-17

UTC

[mdd2]

Should be 12 for Boro now?

[evensteadiereddie]

Indeed it is.
The fat lady is just getting ready for the sound check.

[Spijed]

Not too far off securing a play off place

[Dark Cloud]

So 4 wins (or equivalent) from 10, sees Burnley up! (Allowing for our vastly superior goal difference)

[HiThere]

So 4 wins (or equivalent) from 10, sees Burnley up! (Allowing for our vastly superior goal difference)

GD won't come into it if we get 12 more points.

Boro can now get a maximum of 91 points.
We're on 80.
4 wins / 12 points get us to 92.

[Dark Cloud]

GD won't come into it if we get 12 more points.

Boro can now get a maximum of 91 points.
We're on 80.
4 wins / 12 points get us to 92.

You are correct and for some reason I was thinking that with Boro having a magic number of 12, we would need to "add" 12 to ourselves to overturn it, assuming Boro make no further slip ups whatsoever, but note I was always crap at maths and the magic numbers have always made my brain hurt!