Covid-19

[UnderSeige]

We might have a vaccine before the track and trace App.

"Alok Sharma, the Business Secretary, said that the clinical trial at the University of Oxford is progressing well and, if it proves successful, the doses could be ready by the end of the summer....The stakes could hardly be higher. If proven effective, the ZD1222 vaccine would allow people to leave their homes, go back to work, and rebuild the economy...Scientists working on the vaccine have said they could know within six weeks whether it will work".

"Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, said “several hundred” Britons have now been given the experimental jab, with hopes that “signals” about whether it works could emerge by mid-June".
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ls-oxford/

[UnderSeige]

Johnson and Johnson has said that it has pushed up clinical trials by two months. Human trials would now start in the second-half of July. This would allow J&J to take part in the clinical trials programme planned by the US government that aims to find a vaccine by the year end. "Based on the strength of the preclinical data we have seen so far and interactions with the regulatory authorities, we have been able to further accelerate the clinical development," said Chief Scientific Officer Paul Stoffels. The J&J trials that will take place in the United States and Belgium would test the corona vaccine for safety and efficacy in 1,045 volunteers between ages 18 to 55 years.
https://www.businesstoday.in/coronaviru ... 06626.html

[UnderSeige]

Japan and China Vaccines
"Japanese biotech company AnGes Inc expects its coronavirus vaccine to be ready by the first half of 2021 if production and supply goes smoothly. The firm is repurposing its hypertension vaccine that had already passed high safety and regulatory standards".

"Meanwhile, in China, employees of some large state-run companies are being given the option to get inoculated with two coronavirus vaccines currently in development. Employees travelling overseas can volunteer to be administered COVID-19 vaccines developed by Sinopharm's subsidiary China National Biotec Group (CNBG). There are five Chinese coronavirus vaccine candidates that are in the human trial stage and competing with the likes of Moderna and AstraZeneca".
https://www.businesstoday.in/coronaviru ... 06626.html

[UnderSeige]

Anti Viral Drugs
"US-based Eli Lilly and Co has said that it could have a coronavirus drug authorised for use as early as September if all goes well with either of two antibody therapies it is testing".

"Gilead Sciences has said that its antiviral drug Remdesivir has prevented respiratory disease in macaque monkeys infected with coronavirus. Remdesivir is the first drug to show improvement in human trials".

https://www.businesstoday.in/coronaviru ... 06626.html

[tiger76]

The number of critically ill patients with coronavirus in Wales has fallen to its lowest number since 25 March.

There are currently 32 patients in critical care or on ventilators in hospitals, according to latest NHS Wales figures.

In Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board area, two months ago there were 29 Covid-19 patients in critical care at the pandemic's peak.

Along with Hywel Dda health board, both currently have three patients.

"It's a good sign at this stage that we've seen critical care pressures reduced by probably about 80% from the peak," said NHS Wales chief executive Dr Andrew Goodall.

"The majority of people being treated in critical care now do not have coronavirus, which importantly shows more NHS work is taking place."

He said it was one of the factors he was keeping an eye on, but he said it was also "striking" that the number of patients still in hospital being treated with Covid-19 - 885 - was the equivalent of filling three large hospitals.

The seven-day average in total daily admissions to hospitals of confirmed and suspected Covid-19 cases is currently 90 - 17 lower than last week.

[Burnley Ace]

Japan and China Vaccines


"Meanwhile, in China, employees of some large state-run companies are being given the option to get inoculated with two coronavirus vaccines currently in development. Employees travelling overseas can volunteer to be administered COVID-19 vaccines developed by Sinopharm's subsidiary China National Biotec Group (CNBG). There are five Chinese coronavirus vaccine candidates that are in the human trial stage and competing with the likes of Moderna and AstraZeneca".
https://www.businesstoday.in/coronaviru ... 06626.html

Is that like “Red pill or Blue pill”, can you say no?

[UnderSeige]

Is that like “Red pill or Blue pill”, can you say no?

The way that I read it is that it is not yet widely available and still being tested but the workers will be given the option to take it if they want.

[Devils_Advocate]

Genuine question DA. Is that actually true? I've brought it up with people in conversation and they've dimissed it as a twitter rumour.

Cant find any bookmarks of stuff bout his family (think the talk might have been bout his sisters link to data contracts) so I cant substantiate that part but this thread and if you have access to Twitters then also its offshoots should give some interesting reading.

The link between Cummings, his data pals and the awarding of key contracts including those that cover the NHSX app is absolutly shocking and for want of a better ward shows to be no better than a banana republic

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1254 ... 51104.html

[UnderSeige]

Cant find any bookmarks of stuff bout his family (think the talk might have been bout his sisters link to data contracts) so I cant substantiate that part but this thread and if you have access to Twitters then also its offshoots should give some interesting reading.

The link between Cummings, his data pals and the awarding of key contracts including those that cover the NHSX app is absolutly shocking and for want of a better ward shows to be no better than a banana republic

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1254 ... 51104.html

I haven't heard anything about this in the mainstream media yet. You would think that it would have emerged a couple of weeks ago when Cummings was the number 1 story. At the moment the App is useless and it's delay is probably costing lives. If the story is right I'm sure that we will hear a lot about it in due course.

Chris Martenson has been talking a lot about nefarious activities during the Pandemic. In particular medical trials that are designed to fail. Usually on drugs that are cheap to produce whilst proper trials are conducted for the more expensive drugs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLSYRqcg0wo

Organisations such as the Lancet and Stanford University have had to retract papers and studies.

[Devils_Advocate]

I haven't heard anything about this in the mainstream media yet. You would think that it would have emerged a couple of weeks ago when Cummings was the number 1 story. At the moment the App is useless and it's delay is probably costing lives. If the story is right I'm sure that we will hear a lot about it in due course.

Chris Martenson has been talking a lot about nefarious activities during the Pandemic. In particular medical trials that are designed to fail. Usually on drugs that are cheap to produce whilst proper trials are conducted for the more expensive drugs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLSYRqcg0wo

Organisations such as the Lancet and Stanford University have had to retract papers and studies.

The story is from the mainstream media and is from when all NHSX app was at the forefront of the news.

I guess one of the advantages of being in the middle of a pandemic and making such a complete sh*tshow of it is that stories like this become so ten a penny that if most of the public aren't interested in facts and accountability they just disappear as quickly as they arose

[tiger76]

The Isle of Man has become the first place in the British Isles to drop social distancing.

Social distancing measures for the general public will be scrapped from Monday - but rules will remain in place for those working in health care and care homes for the elderly.

Chief minister Howard Quayle said the decision had been taken to "get society back to normal".

Quayle described it as a "bold move", but stressed the decision could be reversed should new cases of the virus emerge.

Twenty-four people have died from coronavirus on the island, but there have been no new cases for 22 days.

The island's border will remain closed, pending a decision by the Council of Ministers at a later stage.

[tiger76]

Recovered cases surpass active infections in India
The number of cured or discharged Covid-19 patients in India is higher than active cases for the first time.

On Wednesday, the health ministry said 135,205 people had recovered in comparison to the 133,632 active cases in the country.

[UnderSeige]

The story is from the mainstream media and is from when all NHSX app was at the forefront of the news.

I guess one of the advantages of being in the middle of a pandemic and making such a complete sh*tshow of it is that stories like this become so ten a penny that if most of the public aren't interested in facts and accountability they just disappear as quickly as they arose

I wouldn't worry too much about that. If the story is correct it will re-emerge at some point. Especially if it can be shown that it played a part in the app being delayed which resulted in 'loss of lives'.

[CombatClaret]

Government ignored warning to stockpile PPE as Covid-19 spread
Watchdog also confirms 25,000 hospital patients were sent to care homes before testing became routine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -19-spread

The government’s plan to distribute personal protective equipment (PPE) during the coronavirus pandemic was undermined because officials failed to stockpile gowns and visors despite warnings to do so, Whitehall’s spending watchdog has revealed...

The only categories of PPE that increased in volume in the government’s stockpile between 24 January and 21 February, when ministers were acutely aware of the pandemic in China, were aprons and clinical waste bags.

Inquiry now.

[aggi]

I wouldn't worry too much about that. If the story is correct it will re-emerge at some point. Especially if it can be shown that it played a part in the app being delayed which resulted in 'loss of lives'.

From what I remember the NHS app is being produced by the government and NHSX.

The dubiousness comes in who has access to the data and the data processing. Chief amongst the dubious firms with links to Cummings and Leave.EU are Faculty and Palantir. Contracts were released a few days ago showing something along the lines of those companies having rights to retain data, train AI models on it and commercialise the results.

It was a developing story so I'm not sure what the current position is. There were some claims from the government that an outdated contract had been released and the rights were different but I'm not sure if there's an outdated contract that's been released.

It will rumble on but I'm not sure if there will be any explosive reveals that will sufficiently interest most people.

[UnderSeige]

From what I remember the NHS app is being produced by the government and NHSX.

The dubiousness comes in who has access to the data and the data processing. Chief amongst the dubious firms with links to Cummings and Leave.EU are Faculty and Palantir. Contracts were released a few days ago showing something along the lines of those companies having rights to retain data, train AI models on it and commercialise the results.

It was a developing story so I'm not sure what the current position is. There were some claims from the government that an outdated contract had been released and the rights were different but I'm not sure if there's an outdated contract that's been released.

It will rumble on but I'm not sure if there will be any explosive reveals that will sufficiently interest most people.

The first App (that was unsuccessful in the Isle of Wight trial) was going to be linked to a central database. I think that there is now an investigation about whether to replace it with Google/Apple technology. Apart from the technical difficulties with the first App (e.g. it didn't work on half of the phones) there were 'data protection breach difficulties'. It could even be argued that it was illegal.

I presume that this was in the areas of 'Data minimisation', 'Storage limitation'. Like aggi says, the question is 'who has access to the data? Data should be "limited to what is necessary in relation to the purposes for which it is processed". It's purpose is 'track and trace coronavirus cases'. If it is being used to "train AI models on it and commercialise the results" then it would be in breach of the data protection act. Also storing it for longer than necessary would cause a breach. It could further be argued that the data being held is of a sensitive nature and therefore should be controlled more strictly.

The alternative App, based on Google and Apple technology uses a decentralised approach without the central database.

In the meantime, track and trace is limited to the 'manual approach' - hardly 'world beating'.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... ogle-model

[tiger76]

Government ignored warning to stockpile PPE as Covid-19 spread
Watchdog also confirms 25,000 hospital patients were sent to care homes before testing became routine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -19-spread

The government’s plan to distribute personal protective equipment (PPE) during the coronavirus pandemic was undermined because officials failed to stockpile gowns and visors despite warnings to do so, Whitehall’s spending watchdog has revealed...

The only categories of PPE that increased in volume in the government’s stockpile between 24 January and 21 February, when ministers were acutely aware of the pandemic in China, were aprons and clinical waste bags.

Inquiry now.

That report doesn't surprise me, PPE has been a shambles during this pandemic, and although it's improving now, it's still nowhere near the standard it should be.

Hancock will likely carry the can for these failings, but reading that Guardian article, it sounds like the whole procurement system needs streamlining.

And PHE can't walk away from their failings either, some senior managers should be worried about their positions.

There's no chance of an inquiry yet, the government's response has been we can't judge until the whole affair is over, maybe not, but the evidence grows more damning by the day.

[tiger76]

Hmm! this could open a can of worms methinks.

More than 14,000 people have died in care homes in England and Wales since the pandemic began. Now the daughter of one man who died is suing the government, saying it "actively exposed" him to serious harm.

Dr Cathy Gardner said the death of her father, Michael Gibson - who died at 88 in April from probable Covid-19-related causes - was part of a "national disgrace".

She is also demanding that Health Secretary Matt Hancock retract his claim that "a protective ring" was put in place around care homes, as her lawyers claim her father's home was pressured to take in a hospital patient who had tested positive.

The Department for Health and Social Care said it could not comment on a current legal case.

It comes as families of 450 people who died in the UK have demanded an immediate public inquiry into the handling of the pandemic to prevent more deaths.

[tiger76]

Two days after the UK entered lockdown, the Crown Dependency of Guernsey followed suit. The Channel Island has now seen no coronavirus cases for 42 days, a success public health authorities attribute to its test and trace programme.

Guernsey's 63,000 residents are able to go to the pub, get a haircut and meet up with friends and family. And on 20 June, the government will remove nearly all lockdown restrictions. So how did they manage it?

Currently, everyone who enters a "controlled environment", like a pub, restaurant or hairdressers, must leave their name and contact details - which are available at all times for the island's Public Health Services to access.

Dr Nicola Brink, Guernsey's public health director, says she began recruitment for contact tracers in January. They have now spoken to 1,757 people, or just under 3% of the population.

She says delays in tests carried out in the UK meant the island had to introduce a lockdown, but by the end of March Guernsey was carrying out its own tests for the equivalent of 160,000 people daily in UK terms.

[tiger76]

The Republic of Ireland will not enter full lockdown again even if there is a second wave of the virus, the country’s chief medical officer says - despite EU health experts warning that further lockdowns could be needed.

Dr Tony Holohan says that as the country knows more about Covid-19 than it did in March, when restrictions were first introduced, it will be able to take a different course.

“I wouldn’t be anticipating at this point in time that we would move back to blanket closures in the way we did in March,” he told Irish state broadcaster RTE.

“People understand more about the disease, the risks and how they can protect themselves when it comes to hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette.

“If a resurgence of the disease happened or a second wave, we would know what specific measures to take, having done our work proactively."

The Republic of Ireland, which has seen more than 25,000 cases and 1,703 fatalities, began the second phase of removing restrictions on Monday.

[tiger76]

Coronavirus: Positive tests continue to fall in England, says ONShttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53021671

[Spijed]

Anyone who dares to disagree with Dominic Cummings:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... IOeRbwgg3E

[CombatClaret]

There's no chance of an inquiry yet, the government's response has been we can't judge until the whole affair is over, maybe not, but the evidence grows more damning by the day.

From a wise person on twitter:

The same people who tell us "now is not the time" to criticise government policy also tell us "we shouldn't judge the past by the standards of today". Apparently, there's never a right time to challenge power.

[Billy Balfour]

Anyone who dares to disagree with Dominic Cummings:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... IOeRbwgg3E

Funny how they get rid of the Chief Nurse for saying that the lockdown rules apply to everyone regardless of status, yet they stick like glue to Cummings. It also shows that all the others are nothing more than servile 'yes men'. So much for being led by the science - it's do as Johnson says or you're out.

[UnderSeige]

The Republic of Ireland will not enter full lockdown again even if there is a second wave of the virus, the country’s chief medical officer says - despite EU health experts warning that further lockdowns could be needed.
.....

“If a resurgence of the disease happened or a second wave, we would know what specific measures to take, having done our work proactively."

They have knowledge of the disease if a 'resurgence of the current wave' occurs. They don't have knowledge of the disease if a 'second wave' occurs. By it's very nature a second wave occurs when a virus transmutes into something different. There are two sets of thinking on this:

• Those who say that, like in other coronavirus outbreaks, the virus will transmute into something less lethal or fizzle out.

• Those who say that a second wave could be more deadly where the virus transmutes so that it spreads to different age groups and such (e.g. like the Spanish Flue)

The Irish government/scientists are unlikely to have any idea what the virus is going to do next. They probably wouldn't even recognise a 'second wave' until it was too late and would then most likely do all the wrong things.

Governments and their scientists need to have contingency plans for all divergencies of the virus and be able to recognise the way things are developing extremely quickly. Above all they need to have a 'containment plan' that works.

Lets hope for a late summer/early Autumn vaccine. I don't have a lot of confidence in the way the governments are handling things at the moment.

[UnderSeige]

Florida began easing lockdown at the end of April. New cases flat lined for a month and are now rising.
Previous one day peak number of cases: 1,118
Lowest number after lockdown:.............386
Latest number of cases in one day:...... 1,698
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-healt ... KKBN22B2MU
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

[UnderSeige]

Georgia, Oklahoma and Alaska began easing restrictions over a month ago.
Alaska has seen a recent upsurge. Georgia and Oklahoma are flatlining.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -reopening
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

[Blackrod]

Why are there still so many new cases reported each day and why is it taking so much longer to come down compared to other European countries ? I know we were two weeks behind some of the worse hit but we still don’t seem to be managing it as well.

[Erasmus]

To Underseige, perhaps I'm wrong on this, but I had understood that a second wave might come not just from a viral mutation, but also if lockdown is ended too quickely before the first wave has fully passed. This increase in social interaction might then lead to the same virus spreading quickly once more amongst those who have not already had it and developed immunity thereby.

[Lowbankclaret]

Next week is a big week for the UK.
Yesterday and today showed increases in positive test, whilst a small rise when compared with the rise in the number of tests. With mass protests and many people particularly kids taking no notice of social distancing it will be very interesting to see if we are back up to the 3-4 thousand rate per day.

I am not going to say we will have a second wave but I think it’s likely.

[CrosspoolClarets]

I have no problem with keeping Cummings if Johnson thinks he is crucial, but he has to deliver, and probably has to do it fast.

I've said before that Cummings has too many enemies on the left and on the right, that is fine for a campaign but not for 4 years of government.

Evidence of that is this article in New Statesman by arch-Tory Tim Montgomerie, which purports to be about Johnson but is really about Cummings. He suggests that Johnson hasn't yet become the City Hall Johnson who was open to debate and ideas (I agree) and Number 10 is too inward looking (I also agree). Cummings and one or two other advisors are the common denominator.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/u ... is-johnson

There are now too many crises happening where Number 10 is getting outflanked, the latest being the highly illiberal, intolerant BLM protests (not the people with 'normal' views on BAME and racism, which is fine). That should have been an open goal for Number 10, especially with a hardline BAME Home Secretary, but conservatives are wondering whether Number 10 actually has an opinion.

The danger here is that the Tory party could degenerate again into civil war for 4 years at a time of critical importance to the country. There's no chance of Labour getting in before 2024 so the government has to really focus on delivering for Britain in that period, or we're all stuffed.

[CrosspoolClarets]

To Underseige, perhaps I'm wrong on this, but I had understood that a second wave might come not just from a viral mutation, but also if lockdown is ended too quickely before the first wave has fully passed. This increase in social interaction might then lead to the same virus spreading quickly once more amongst those who have not already had it and developed immunity thereby.

That is my understanding too.

Viruses tend to mutate into a less deadly form, but this version of it needs to be stopped in its tracks rather than just being tackled when people get it, it is too dangerous.

The SAGE discussion seems to be whether the risk of it spreading again is accurate or over-stated, with either warm weather or a greater immunity to it than previously thought (T-cells, not just antibodies) being factors why that risk could be overstated. I suspect that is why the government have been advised to loosen things very gradually, ready to pull back immediately if necessary, there is no point staying locked down for months if the virus wouldn't start spreading rapidly again.

(my view on this as a statistician is that some things don't feel right - the T Cell immunity seems a highly plausible theory, maybe the virus can only infect a quarter to a half of people, but can be lethal to many, it would explain the low rates in Asia where SARS and MERS immunity may have trickled through to protect against this, with a reduced level of immunity in the wider world, but still some)

[CombatClaret]

Why are there still so many new cases reported each day and why is it taking so much longer to come down compared to other European countries ? I know we were two weeks behind some of the worse hit but we still don’t seem to be managing it as well.

Because the number of infections was so high to begin with. By the time lockdown was put in place it was too late and we had up to an estimated 300,000 infections spread across the entire country.
Even If you get the R rate under 1, lets say 0.7 that means 100 people will still give it to 70 more so the higher number you start with the slower the climb down is, chipping away at it week by week.
That's why the countries who locked down fast were able to unlock quickly because they climbed down from such low numbers in the first place.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 2537142274
This breaks down excess deaths and it shows Italy, even though hard hit was able to contain the virus to some extent. Only three Northern regions saw excess deaths over 50%, the majority very low percentages any and some none at all.
Compare that to the UK 9/12 regions have over 50% excess deaths, It was everywhere before anything was done.
As recent studies show Covid entered the UK in over 1300 different times, no just from one or two super spreaders. And most of those were from France, Italy, Spain. Very few from China.

This is why people talk about the lost weeks of dither and delay, we let it enter and we let it spread. It's killed tens of thousands and added weeks/months to our recovery.

[UnderSeige]

To Underseige, perhaps I'm wrong on this, but I had understood that a second wave might come not just from a viral mutation, but also if lockdown is ended too quickely before the first wave has fully passed. This increase in social interaction might then lead to the same virus spreading quickly once more amongst those who have not already had it and developed immunity thereby.

A professor explained it on BBC Question Time a week ago. Apparently what you have described Erasmus would be a 'second spike', a 'second peak' or a 'resurgence of the virus' that is caused by too much social interaction too soon after measures have been removed. The virus doesn't need to mutate in order for this to happen. It will continue to infect the same groups of people as before.

E.G. "The UK Prime Minister, speaking outside Downing Street on Monday morning, urged the UK people to continue adhering to the “tough measures” to avoid a “second spike” of COVID-19".https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/ It looks like he learned the correct lingo from his scientific advisers.

A second wave of a pandemic is when the virus mutates and behaves differently. The second wave will target a different part of the population than the first. For example there was a second and third wave of the Spanish Flue. The second wave was the most infectious wave. It targeted the younger generations. Young people were contracting the virus and passing away within 24 hours. The third wave was less infectious and eventually 'herd immunity' set in.

I think that a lot of websites, journalists etc talk about a 'second wave' when they mean a resurgence of the first wave or a 'second spike'. I have just searched a few websites to find a good definition but they all seem to be saying slightly different things.

• Second wave: A phenomenon of infections that can develop during a pandemic. The disease infects one group of people first. Infections appear to decrease. And then, infections increase in a different part of the population, resulting in a second wave of infections. https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main ... ekey=26442

• It’s not a scientific term with well-defined parameters. Rather, it’s used to refer to a subsequent, serious increase in cases that occurs after the original surge has been quashed in a given area.... Other factors could lead to a more dramatic increase that might be clearly recognizable as a second wave. ... Or the pathogen can mutate. ... In the latter part of 1918, a second wave of the historic influenza outbreak occurred and caused most of the deaths in that pandemic. Some researchers believe it was brought about by a mutation that made the virus again unrecognizable to most people’s immune systems.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -quicktake

• Experts are urging lawmakers to be on the lookout for a second "peak," a sharp increase in cases that falls short of a full-blown second "wave." https://www.cnet.com/how-to/a-second-wa ... -and-more/

[UnderSeige]

That is my understanding too.

Viruses tend to mutate into a less deadly form, but this version of it needs to be stopped in its tracks rather than just being tackled when people get it, it is too dangerous.

The SAGE discussion seems to be whether the risk of it spreading again is accurate or over-stated, with either warm weather or a greater immunity to it than previously thought (T-cells, not just antibodies) being factors why that risk could be overstated. I suspect that is why the government have been advised to loosen things very gradually, ready to pull back immediately if necessary, there is no point staying locked down for months if the virus wouldn't start spreading rapidly again.

(my view on this as a statistician is that some things don't feel right - the T Cell immunity seems a highly plausible theory, maybe the virus can only infect a quarter to a half of people, but can be lethal to many, it would explain the low rates in Asia where SARS and MERS immunity may have trickled through to protect against this, with a reduced level of immunity in the wider world, but still some)

There is a high risk that a 'second peak' could occur as a result of lifting the lockdown. However this is not inevitable and not the only thing that can happen. The nature of a pandemic is that it is unpredictable. At times it will be fast moving and at other times there may be lulls which make it look like it's all over.

It may also transmute to something different. At that stage it could just become less infective and eventually fizzle out. It could also transmute to something that infects other groups of the population such as the young and physically fit athletic types (second wave). We just don't know what will happen next.

[tiger76]

Because the number of infections was so high to begin with. By the time lockdown was put in place it was too late and we had up to an estimated 300,000 infections spread across the entire country.
Even If you get the R rate under 1, lets say 0.7 that means 100 people will still give it to 70 more so the higher number you start with the slower the climb down is, chipping away at it week by week.
That's why the countries who locked down fast were able to unlock quickly because they climbed down from such low numbers in the first place.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 2537142274
This breaks down excess deaths and it shows Italy, even though hard hit was able to contain the virus to some extent. Only three Northern regions saw excess deaths over 50%, the majority very low percentages any and some none at all.
Compare that to the UK 9/12 regions have over 50% excess deaths, It was everywhere before anything was done.
As recent studies show Covid entered the UK in over 1300 different times, no just from one or two super spreaders. And most of those were from France, Italy, Spain. Very few from China.

This is why people talk about the lost weeks of dither and delay, we let it enter and we let it spread. It's killed tens of thousands and added weeks/months to our recovery.

To reinforce your point look at the French numbers today.

The coronavirus death toll in France increased by 28 on Friday to a total of 29,374.

France has the fifth-highest death toll in the world and third-highest in Europe behind the UK and Italy.

But, it is the 10th day in a row France has reported fewer than 100 daily deaths.

[UnderSeige]

Because the number of infections was so high to begin with. By the time lockdown was put in place it was too late and we had up to an estimated 300,000 infections spread across the entire country.
Even If you get the R rate under 1, lets say 0.7 that means 100 people will still give it to 70 more so the higher number you start with the slower the climb down is, chipping away at it week by week.
That's why the countries who locked down fast were able to unlock quickly because they climbed down from such low numbers in the first place.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 2537142274
This breaks down excess deaths and it shows Italy, even though hard hit was able to contain the virus to some extent. Only three Northern regions saw excess deaths over 50%, the majority very low percentages any and some none at all.
Compare that to the UK 9/12 regions have over 50% excess deaths, It was everywhere before anything was done.
As recent studies show Covid entered the UK in over 1300 different times, no just from one or two super spreaders. And most of those were from France, Italy, Spain. Very few from China.

This is why people talk about the lost weeks of dither and delay, we let it enter and we let it spread. It's killed tens of thousands and added weeks/months to our recovery.

In addition to this we have only just started to ease lockdown over the last three weeks or so. There is no guarantee that the downward trend will continue. Increased social contact through the protests, visits to the seaside etc could easily start a second spike. We just don't know what will happen next.

It looks like Iran are experiencing a second spike. A number of American states have started to experience a second spike after easing restrictions at the end of April. Some American states such as California and Arizona have not even seen a slow down. The trend just keeps going up.

Sweden's daily case rate has been rising since the start of June - from 644 to 1326 by June 11 (more than doubled in 11 days). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/

Spain has been getting worried about a second spike. The daily cases have risen from 167 to 427 in the last four days. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/

Spain saw daily COVID-19 cases double two days in a row this week, but the country’s chief epidemiologist said the outbreaks are under control.

On Sunday, the country registered a daily record-low number of 48 infections, but the number nearly doubled to reach 84 on Monday, and then again to 167 on Tuesday. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/is-spai ... 19/1874667

On the other hand some countries are almost declaring victory over the virus.

• France declares coronavirus 'under control' and won't impose new lockdown even if second wave strikes. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... en-second/

• Germany and Italy seem to be OK at the moment

[Erasmus]

Ah, spikes and waves, I need to keep up don't I? Thanks for explaining it, Underseige, I see what you mean now.

[bfcjg]

When you look at the economic cost of lockdown it really is to be hoped there is a vaccine before winter or we will end up with a terrible dilemma of avoid the virus and the economy permanently collapses as per the rest of the developed world and we lose more lives through poverty and a health service we cannot afford so more die or soldier on watch people die but we keep the country ticking over.

[UnderSeige]

Next week is a big week for the UK.
Yesterday and today showed increases in positive test, whilst a small rise when compared with the rise in the number of tests. With mass protests and many people particularly kids taking no notice of social distancing it will be very interesting to see if we are back up to the 3-4 thousand rate per day.

I am not going to say we will have a second wave but I think it’s likely.

We should have an idea if there is going to be a 'second peak' of the 'current wave' sometime in July. We should also get to know whether the Oxford/AstraZenica vaccine is likely to be successful by the end of July.

[UnderSeige]

When you look at the economic cost of lockdown it really is to be hoped there is a vaccine before winter or we will end up with a terrible dilemma of avoid the virus and the economy permanently collapses as per the rest of the developed world and we lose more lives through poverty and a health service we cannot afford so more die or soldier on watch people die but we keep the country ticking over.

If the government and their scientists could get an effective 'containment plan' together we wouldn't have to face this dilemma. We could get the economy going and save lives as well. Other countries have done it.

We need the 'track and trace App' which is currently 'back on the drawing board'. We don't need it to be 'world beating'. We just need it to be effective like Korea, New Zealand etc.

Mask wearing also plays a big part. I have heard that in a situation in which everyone is wearing a mask virus transmission is reduced by around 90%. It should be made compulsory in public buildings, work places, town centres, shopping centres, etc. It's a nuisance having to wear a mask but it's only likely to be for a few months.

The public also need to participate in social distancing, hand washing etc. until the pandemic is over. People can also reduce the risk of going into 'critical care' by making sure that they are not deficient of vitamins and minerals required to fight infections. The government recommendation is to take a daily Vitamin D tablet but how many people know this?

It didn't have to be this way.

[UnderSeige]

Latest Vaccine Update by Derek Lowe on Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article

Highlights

• Moderna’s candidate was said to be going into Phase III in July, followed by the Oxford/AstraZeneca effort in September, with Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine to follow.

• "Pfizer ... seem to be taking the largest number of potential vaccine candidates into human trials. Merck is in the same category. Another company to keep in mind is Novavax".

• "J&J now says that they're moving up the timetable and negotiating with the NIAID for Phase III trials before then".

• "AZ says that they will be scaling up the manufacturing of the Oxford vaccine during the trials themselves, on a risk basis, and it would not surprise me at all to see other companies doing something similar. They'll basically have to - if one or more of these vaccines reads out well in Phase III, you'd want to get to dosing people as quickly as possible".

• "Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY)/GSK (NYSE:GSK) work, which has been less in the news, but involves two of the most experienced vaccine companies in the world".

• "Novavax...have now announced (no formal report yet) what appear to be very high antibody titers in primate dosing with their vaccine candidate, which they attribute to their proprietary adjuvant.They're expanding their manufacturing capacity as well".

[CombatClaret]

Boris Johnson 'scrapped Cabinet pandemic committee six months before coronavirus hit UK'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ix-months/

Committee axed following advice from Cabinet Secretary to devote more ministerial time to Brexit

[bfcjg]

When there is a public inquiry into the pandemic he won't be able to avoid scrutiny or hide in fridges his incompetence will be laid bare for all to see. His obsession with Brexit even now will add to his downfall.

[tiger76]

When there is a public inquiry into the pandemic he won't be able to avoid scrutiny or hide in fridges his incompetence will be laid bare for all to see. His obsession with Brexit even now will add to his downfall.

As i posted on the Brexit thread i voted to leave, but this government's obsession with 1 issue is causing great damage to the country.

And even with all this supposed attention on Brexit they can't even get that right, we need to request a delay and buy us time to devote purely to covid, and getting the economy back on it's feet, before we can start grappling with major trade talks, which will affect us for generations to come.

“act in haste, repent at leisure” is the phrase which comes to mind.

[RingoMcCartney]

A new outbreak in China reported to be centred around a market in Beijing. Parts now in lockdown.

[dsr]

Boris Johnson 'scrapped Cabinet pandemic committee six months before coronavirus hit UK'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ix-months/

Committee axed following advice from Cabinet Secretary to devote more ministerial time to Brexit

There's a lot to have a go at Boris Johnson for, but I doubt this is it. PHE's main duty was to prevent and deal with epiden=mics and they have 5,500 staff; one more lay committee isn't going to make a vast difference, I wouldn't have thought. I'd like to know who this former cabinet minister is who believes he was so very competent and powerful - doesn't ring any bells with any recent cabinets!

[CombatClaret]

There's a lot to have a go at Boris Johnson for, but I doubt this is it. PHE's main duty was to prevent and deal with epiden=mics and they have 5,500 staff; one more lay committee isn't going to make a vast difference, I wouldn't have thought. I'd like to know who this former cabinet minister is who believes he was so very competent and powerful - doesn't ring any bells with any recent cabinets!

The fact is we had fewer people in power sitting around thinking about things like Pandemics, I can't have helped. It's not the smoking gun, sadly it's just another point in the long list of government mishandling.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/italy-germany ... 49243.html
Hopefully this Oxford vaccine will be a success all these countries wouldn't bet on a dud.

[dermotdermot]

A new outbreak in China reported to be centred around a market in Beijing. Parts now in lockdown.

This ‘market’ claims to be the largest agricultural market in Asia. Cutting boards, being used to prepare imported salmon, tested positive for the virus. The salmon has been withdrawn from supermarkets all over the country.