How confident are you about us staying up?

[randomclaret2]

Southampton arent totally safe yet...less games to ply than anyone else, completely out of form, poor goal diffrence

[BabylonClaret]

Southampton arent totally safe yet...less games to ply than anyone else, completely out of form, poor goal diffrence

Aren't they on 40 though? That would be a massive total to drop

[Spijed]

Aren't they on 40 though? That would be a massive total to drop

They've got Brentford away, Liverpool at Home then finish with Leicester away.

[boatshed bill]

They've got Brentford away, Liverpool at Home then finish with Leicester away.

They have 40 points, we need 2 wins to catch them and our games are not easy.
They only have to draw a couple to stave off any challenge we may present.

our best hope is matching Leeds' results, assuming Leeds remain as crap as they have been lately.

[Spijed]

They have 40 points, we need 2 wins to catch them and our games are not easy.
They only have to draw a couple to stave off any challenge we may present.

our best hope is matching Leeds' results, assuming Leeds remain as crap as they have been lately.

The current form guide has us on 13 points from the last 6. Leeds on 11 and Everton on 7.

[boatshed bill]

The current form guide has us on 13 points from the last 6. Leeds on 11 and Everton on 7.

That's not relevant, though.
You were posting about us catching (overhauling) Southampton

[JarrowClaret]

I can see them getting three at Watford. Leicester is anyones guess, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them pick up at least a point there.

Previous form means nothing now, it’s about having the bottle.

Agreed but I don’t think they have the bottle! anyway I don’t think they will win both there remaining home games maybe 1 of them. So if they get a win and draw away that is a max of 7 or 8 points so 5 or 6 will do it for us hopefully. I see us winning against Newcastle and I can see us getting something in both games against Villa although maybe I have gone crazy not sure

[Spijed]

21% chance of currently going down.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... er-league/

[Devils_Advocate]

Only a 33% chance of beating Villa next week!

[boatshed bill]

Only a 33% chance of beating Villa next week!

All that % stuff is a load of bullocks anyhow.

[GaryClaret]

I find it useful to remember the two championship promotion seasons under Dyche where there were last minute winners, disappointing draws, slip ups and so on. The results for all teams involved in this will not be linear and we can only hope we’re on the right side of the red line.

I believe in us staying up because of not only the quality we’ve shown in the last 3 games but also the guts too. We’ll have stories all week of “ah Everton are fine now” after a whole week of “Everton are finished” and they aren’t even out of the bottom three. Lots of twists and turns ahead.

[Devils_Advocate]

All that % stuff is a load of bullocks anyhow.

I know its nonsense isn't it and people seem very selective about what stats to use and when

[Jakubclaret]

21% chance of currently going down.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... er-league/

It’s far higher than that it’s over 30% it’s a 3 horse race we are deadlocked (atm) on points with another contender with a better GD & above another contender who have a game on hand on us who could overtake us with a win, there isn’t that much in it to favour any of the 3 the notion that teams will just roll over & get their belly’s tickled isn’t true everybody will want to finish as high as possible, even Watford & Norwich will be competitive when doomed to not want to finish bottom.

[JohnDearyMe]

It’s far higher than that it’s over 30% it’s a 3 horse race we are deadlocked (atm) on points with another contender with a better GD & above another contender who have a game on hand on us who could overtake us with a win, there isn’t that much in it to favour any of the 3 the notion that teams will just roll over & get their belly’s tickled isn’t true everybody will want to finish as high as possible, even Watford & Norwich will be competitive when doomed to not want to finish bottom.

Some already relegated teams even manage to significantly improve. Remember how we beat Spurs under Brian Laws after we were down

[Jakubclaret]

Some already relegated teams even manage to significantly improve. Remember how we beat Spurs under Brian Laws after we were down

True they aren’t playing with any pressure, a few more twist & turns to go yet top & bottom end it’d be more exciting if we weren’t involved in that 5 team group from both ends.

[jurek]

It will swing this way and t'other depending on results next weekend.
Prior to Everton besting Chelsea it had swung our way but now
it's probably swung Evertons' way especially as they have the game in hand
and winnable games to come.
Leeds have two tricky games coming up (Arsenal and Chelsea)

But as some posters have suggested all we need to do is to equal or better
their points total.

Will we be able to do it?

A win against Villa will swing it back our way especially if Leeds lose
their next game.

[Jakubclaret]

It will swing this way and t'other depending on results next weekend.
Prior to Everton besting Chelsea it had swung our way but now
it's probably swung Evertons' way especially as they have the game in hand
and winnable games to come.
Leeds have two tricky games coming up (Arsenal and Chelsea)

But as some posters have suggested all we need to do is to equal or better
their points total.

Will we be able to do it?

A win against Villa will swing it back our way especially if Leeds lose
their next game.

Some posters aren’t simply applying the logic of maths with discounting the assumption that Everton could win their game in hand which amounts to 3pts over bridging the 2pts currently there, so on that basis we can’t equal we are hoping Everton falter which in fairness you have recognised but other posters have failed.

[Elizabeth]

Leeds were the losers this weekend.

Everton won only because of an awful defensive mistake and great goalkeeping but importantly remain 2 points behind us.

The most important result was our win making it 3 wins on the trot.

I'm banking on the spirit in the camp to get us over the line in the last 4 games. If you have that it counts more than who you are playing and the evidence is there with Everton's 2 wins against Man Utd and Chelsea.

The two home games with the crowd behind us are the key and our home form is good so I'm reasonably confident

[Quicknick]

Feels like we're in a straight shootout with Leeds to me now. Can we maintain our excellent recent form given all the injuries we've got? If we beat Villa next weekend i think we'll have a good chance. If not i think we'll get pipped at the post

It is not a ''straight shootout'' between us and Leeds. Everton are clearly involved.

[Hibsclaret]

I think 40 points could quite possibly be needed this year so we need 2 wins. A few twists and turns left yet after today’s result.

[Dark Cloud]

Or even Cornet's missed penalty at West Ham.
You could go on for ever about various chances we didn't take.
But we are where we are.

I totally agree with your last sentence and yes, every team, including us can point to moments like the penalty at West Ham or Cornet missing an open net at Norwich etc, but no one knows what would have happened after that minute. With Vydra's last second scuff it would for certain have been the match winner and I just can't get it out of my head right now and if we go down I never will!

[CrosspoolClarets]

There is a scenario where Southampton drop, but it would need Leeds getting a point against Chelsea.

There is also a scenario where Leeds don’t get another point and we have already done enough. That Brighton home game is not easy, they are their bogey side, look good away, and yesterday were up for it. If that occurs, beat Villa and we will be safe before Newcastle. Not sure my nerves could handle it otherwise.

Whatever, we have to beat Villa on Saturday. That is now crucial. Blood and thunder. Hope they don’t fancy the injury risk. Means nothing to them and logic would say Leeds and Everton are bigger threats to them next season so get rid of them. They’ll try of course, but hopefully no more than Chelsea did today.

[Jakubclaret]

Wonder how many people will still think it was a bad business move by NUFC & a good business one by ours if he (CW) hammers the final nail in without going into whether it was something that could have been delayed

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

I think 40 points could quite possibly be needed this year so we need 2 wins. A few twists and turns left yet after today’s result.

Be rare for three teams at the bottom to all suddenly string a winning run together. Two wins needed for us. Next Saturday gives us the chance to pile the pressure back on both Everton and Leeds.

[ElectroClaret]

If that occurs, beat Villa and we will be safe before Newcastle.

I hope we'll be safe before Newcastle, but I think there's a strong possibility we won't,
and it may come down to a last day shoot out.

Last day 22nd May...

Burnley v Newcastle
Brentford v Leeds
Arsenal v Everton

In that scenario, we've as good, if not better chance than the others.

[Hibsclaret]

Let’s hope the likes of Ings and Gerrard can do us a favour by not turning up. I’m fairly sure Gerrard would enjoy helping sending Neverton down but we shall see. They are not fully safe yet themselves which is a shame.

[Iloveyoubrady]

We need to keep the momentum. We have a whole week to focus on the villa game, hopefully Maxwel back and firing. If we can win that game, you’d think we will find enough points over the villa away and Newcastle game to stay ahead of Leeds. Everton are horrendously inconsistent and I can’t predict where the end up at all.

[KRBFC]

Wonder how many people will still think it was a bad business move by NUFC & a good business one by ours if he (CW) hammers the final nail in without going into whether it was something that could have been delayed

You're actually irritating with this Chris Wood stuff, you have been told how many times Newcastle activated a release clause? it's been explained to you in simple terms but you continue banging this drum that we could've rejected the offer because fake news Simon Jordan said so? I like listening to SJ but he's absolutely no insider scoop on BFC transfer dealings.

[Swizzlestick]

Wonder how many people will still think it was a bad business move by NUFC & a good business one by ours if he (CW) hammers the final nail in without going into whether it was something that could have been delayed

For the love of god, it couldn’t have been delayed.

[Jakubclaret]

You're actually irritating with this Chris Wood stuff, you have been told how many times Newcastle activated a release clause? it's been explained to you in simple terms but you continue banging this drum that we could've rejected the offer because fake news Simon Jordan said so? I like listening to SJ but he's absolutely no insider scoop on BFC transfer dealings.

It’s equally as irritating for me, you are more than welcome to believe what you want to believe I’m not stopping you, my post explicitly stated without going into the mechanics of the transfer, will some people still think it’s a bad or good business from NUFC or our perspective if the worst was to happen, forget about whether we could have delayed that I’m not interested in debating that because I know we’ll never agree, all I’m interested in is will some people review/reconsider earlier opinions & amend.

[ervi34]

What's encouraging for me is the fact that we'll know exactly what we need from the Villa away game.

[RVclaret]

I hope we'll be safe before Newcastle, but I think there's a strong possibility we won't,
and it may come down to a last day shoot out.

Last day 22nd May...

Burnley v Newcastle
Brentford v Leeds
Arsenal v Everton

In that scenario, we've as good, if not better chance than the others.

Having said that, we are the only team out of the 3 to also be playing on the Thursday just before. Why it’s a Thursday night at Villa I’ve no idea.

Edit - just checked, Everton also play that night against Palacr at home.

[Hibsclaret]

What's encouraging for me is the fact that we'll know exactly what we need from the Villa away game.

How on earth do you work that one out? We could be 6 points behind Leeds and 7 points behind Everton when we start that game.

All to play for and one game at a time as usual. Hope for some assistance from Arsenal and Chelsea for a change.

[claretandy]

I said at the time we were bottom and doomed, if you offered me a deal where if we beat Newcastle on the last day, we stop up, then I'd take it.

[Hibsclaret]

Let’s hope Ings and Wood don’t come back to bite the hand that fed them. Both of them have experience of scoring many times at the turf.

[NewClaret]

Let’s hope Ings and Wood don’t come back to bite the hand that fed them. Both of them have experience of scoring many times at the turf.

Yep, worried as hell about that

[Vintage Claret]

I'm 50/50 at the moment (which is much better than the odds of survival I thought we had after the Norwich game)

Can see Everton surviving after that win yesterday and they do seen to have luck on their side at the moment (2 late deflections in games winning them 4 points and a defensive gaff yesterday)

Hopefully they've used up their share of good luck now and we can have some of it going into these last 4 games

[ervi34]

How on earth do you work that one out? We could be 6 points behind Leeds and 7 points behind Everton when we start that game.

All to play for and one game at a time as usual. Hope for some assistance from Arsenal and Chelsea for a change.

If we are behind then we know it's a must win game. If we are level on points with Leeds, it means a win basically confirms we are staying up. If we have a 3 points more than Leeds then we need a point to stay up and so on.

[Elizabeth]

I'll settle for being 3 points more than Leeds on the last day any day

[dandeclaret]

It’s far higher than that it’s over 30% it’s a 3 horse race we are deadlocked (atm) on points with another contender with a better GD & above another contender who have a game on hand on us who could overtake us with a win, there isn’t that much in it to favour any of the 3 the notion that teams will just roll over & get their belly’s tickled isn’t true everybody will want to finish as high as possible, even Watford & Norwich will be competitive when doomed to not want to finish bottom.

A 3 horse race doesn’t mean over 30% chance…. If you were racing Usain Bolt and The Queen…. Do you think they’d all have over a 30% chance?

[Suratclaret]

We’re now averaging a point a game…maintain that and I think we’ll stay up.

[Jakubclaret]

A 3 horse race doesn’t mean over 30% chance…. If you were racing Usain Bolt and The Queen…. Do you think they’d all have over a 30% chance?

I just love the totally far fetched comparison over 3 sides who are pretty much the same standard, take a bow.

[Blakesboots]

It’s equally as irritating for me, you are more than welcome to believe what you want to believe I’m not stopping you, my post explicitly stated without going into the mechanics of the transfer, will some people still think it’s a bad or good business from NUFC or our perspective if the worst was to happen, forget about whether we could have delayed that I’m not interested in debating that because I know we’ll never agree, all I’m interested in is will some people review/reconsider earlier opinions & amend.

Newcastle spent enough money to activate the clause in the contract. That contract also then stated that once a formal offer had been officially received by the club and the legal agents of all involved, the representatives could officially begin to negotiate the personal terms. This was done (very quickly) and the player moved.

You could perhaps have procrastinated on the offer being ‘seen’ and acknowledged by the club, but that would’ve bought you hours not days.

There is no other BFC perspective to be appreciated.

[Blakesboots]

I just love the totally far fetched comparison over 3 sides who are pretty much the same standard, take a bow.

He’s right, you’re wrong. It’s a good analogy.

Unless you’ve got a degree in statistical analysis and practical application experience?

[Jakubclaret]

He’s right, you’re wrong. It’s a good analogy.

Unless you’ve got a degree in statistical analysis and practical application experience?

I haven’t but i realise 3 teams after 30 odd games with near enough the same amount of points would suggest overall quality wise there’s not much difference as opposed to comparing a super athlete sprinter with a old lady in some sort of a race, maybe I should put in for 1 of these statistical analysis & practical application experiences or just call it good old fashioned common sense which is lacking from the poster I quoted.

[mybloodisclaret]

Everton winning was unfortunate.

It makes it tighter for sure. I think if we can get Cornet fit for the last 4 games we stay up. Hopefully don't turn up on the last day.

[Blakesboots]

I haven’t but i realise 3 teams after 30 odd games with near enough the same amount of points would suggest overall quality wise there’s not much difference as opposed to comparing a super athlete sprinter with a old lady in some sort of a race, maybe I should put in for 1 of these statistical analysis & practical application experiences or just call it good old fashioned common sense which is lacking from the poster I quoted.

Perhaps you should, then you might become aware of your lack of knowledge/understanding/application. We only know what we don’t know by being taught/shown it.

[Jakubclaret]

Newcastle spent enough money to activate the clause in the contract. That contract also then stated that once a formal offer had been officially received by the club and the legal agents of all involved, the representatives could officially begin to negotiate the personal terms. This was done (very quickly) and the player moved.

You could perhaps have procrastinated on the offer being ‘seen’ and acknowledged by the club, but that would’ve bought you hours not days.

There is no other BFC perspective to be appreciated.

I’m not going into it, you can believe what you want to & I’ll do the same, I’ve gone around in circles with it I don’t wish to go on another rinse & repeat cycle, I’ve never known a player remain tight lipped when questioned about a normal business practice when specifically asked the question that tells me what I need to know. Have a good day.

[Blakesboots]

I haven’t but i realise 3 teams after 30 odd games with near enough the same amount of points would suggest overall quality wise there’s not much difference as opposed to comparing a super athlete sprinter with a old lady in some sort of a race, maybe I should put in for 1 of these statistical analysis & practical application experiences or just call it good old fashioned common sense which is lacking from the poster I quoted.

Everton and Leeds have almost to a man better technical players in their squad but cannot gather to coherency to play as a unit.

We can do that, and we can do that effectively and have proved this.

[Blakesboots]

I’m not going into it, you can believe what you want to & I’ll do the same, I’ve gone around in circles with it I don’t wish to go on another rinse & repeat cycle, I’ve never known a player remain tight lipped when questioned about a normal business practice when specifically asked the question that tells me what I need to know. Have a good day.

Players have no need or right to comment on business practices of their contracted or other clubs. To do so would bring them into conflict with their contract.

I can tell you the truth of the matter, yes that is from one perspective when there are three to consider. But contracts are based on factual statements and work very hard to eliminate misunderstanding and grey areas.

I’d Google cognitive dissonance and spend some time having a read.