Russia Invades

[Vegas Claret]

So there is no difference in fighting despotism and invading a democracy? I presume you’ll have your red flag is ready when Putin moves into the Balkans.

There are many reasons for the East not to trust the West, the 60’s and 70’s policies most of all. Iraq invaded Kuwait to steal its oil fields and Afghanistan was a long established training ground for Islamic Terrorism. Ukraine has problems, like Britain but Ukraine is a democratic independent country avoiding suppression. Your comparison is nonsensical.

lads, do us all a favour and stop this back and forth here please - this thread is already on it's last warning

[IanMcL]

Ras Put OUT will not retreat ever.

Either Ukraine will be taken - whatever is left of it - or NATO has to declare Ukraine a member.

Draw a line around the border and state that United Nations soldiers will forever guard the border to prevent Ukraine from attacking the poor folk of Russia.

That would give Ras his 'victory' in that he has secured all borders for eternity.

[Lancasterclaret]

Hmm! fuel shortages do you think? probably explains why they're putting so much effort into capturing Mariupol, if they get access to the port it should make it much easier for them to get supplies to the front line.

But if Russia's plan was a lightening war, and taking Kiev within a few days, then things have gone badly awry for them, and you have to wonder how long Putin can maintain the facade of success which he's presently spinning.

Thing is, they are clearly doing fairly well in the south, but everytime they hit a city, they stop dead

And if the West can get more of the defence capability into Ukrainian hands, then any military attack on a city is going to be horrendous

And they are attacking from everywhere. They have not got the logistical capacity for that and they will have to prioritize

Looking more and more like Belarus has been asked to join in because of the struggles the Russians are having and they think they can close the borders to the West. I would say that is fanciful at best

They will be an operational pause soon, there has to be, and you'll know after that if they have refined their objectives and maybe cut down on their expectations

But who knows?

The whole world is watching the much vaunted Red Army flounder around and countries like China will be taking huge notice of stuff like that

[Vegas Claret]

...

[elwaclaret]

lads, do us all a favour and stop this back and forth here please - this thread is already on it's last warning

Do not usually get involved with nonsense, but in this case factual history was being misconstrued. I do not consider historical fact and president to be ‘back and forth’ political argument. If it (is) I apologise.

[Vegas Claret]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/14 ... tJheA6-mHw

[Vegas Claret]

Do not usually get involved with nonsense, but in this case factual history was being misconstrued. I do not consider historical fact and president to be ‘back and forth’ political argument. If it (is) I apologise.

often these conversations unfortunately escalate - this thread is hanging on by a thread, we are just trying our best to keep it to info rather than full discussion (again unfortunately). It's nothing personal at all or anything against the points you are making - just trying to keep the thing going

[tiger76]

Thing is, they are clearly doing fairly well in the south, but everytime they hit a city, they stop dead

And if the West can get more of the defence capability into Ukrainian hands, then any military attack on a city is going to be horrendous

And they are attacking from everywhere. They have not got the logistical capacity for that and they will have to prioritize

Looking more and more like Belarus has been asked to join in because of the struggles the Russians are having and they think they can close the borders to the West. I would say that is fanciful at best

They will be an operational pause soon, there has to be, and you'll know after that if they have refined their objectives and maybe cut down on their expectations

But who knows?

The whole world is watching the much vaunted Red Army flounder around and countries like China will be taking huge notice of stuff like that

Yes it's patchy, some gains in places, and zero or little progress in others.

Lukashenko reported to have ruled out Belarus joining the fray, but given they allowed Russian troops to attack from their borders, I'd take that with a large dose of salt TBH.

Despite all the suffering being caused to Ukraine, in one sense this has been an eye-opener for the west that perhaps Russia isn't the military superpower it likes to think it is.

The fear I guess is if Putin becomes irked at the lack of progress and does something really stupid, after all this is a man who had no qualms at deploying chemical weapons in Syria, and who's threatened the nuclear option, I don't think even he'd be that rash, but that has to be in the back of everyone's mind.

[Lancasterclaret]

US defence analysis of why that convoy is still there

https://twitter.com/SashaIngber/status/ ... 9245790214

[elwaclaret]

Reuters showing Republican position. They are attacking Bidon for refusing pipeline permits and new drilling in the USA while buying from OPEC and Russia.

Reading between the lines Republicans looking for democrats to open up American energy to the European markets before they will start backing him in the war.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Kyruer/status/1498683433882685450

More abandoned Russian equipment, again, looks in fully working order

This is in Mykolaiv, in the south, one of the areas that Russia has done quite well in

[Taffy on the wing]

So there is no difference in fighting despotism and invading a democracy? I presume you’ll have your red flag is ready when Putin moves into the Balkans.

There are many reasons for the East not to trust the West, the 60’s and 70’s policies most of all. Iraq invaded Kuwait to steal its oil fields and Afghanistan was a long established training ground for Islamic Terrorism. Ukraine has problems, like Britain but Ukraine is a democratic independent country avoiding suppression. Your comparison is nonsensical.

Rubbish!

The second Iraq war & the Afghan one...George Bush & friends'... was based on fabricated evidence of WMD.....387,000 civilians have lost their lives. 38 million people have been forcibly displaced in the post 9/11 wars
the wounded and maimed are not counted in this....American & UK bombs are just as deadly as Russian ones.....
But i like you're if you're not with us you're against us nonsense.....Gullible as fcuk!

[bfcjg]

Rubbish!

The second Iraq war & the Afghan one...George Bush & friends'... was based on fabricated evidence of WMD.....387,000 civilians have lost their lives. 38 million people have been forcibly displaced in the post 9/11 wars
the wounded and maimed are not counted in this....American & UK bombs are just as deadly as Russian ones.....
But i like you're if you're not with us you're against us nonsense.....Gullible as fcuk!

Let's not go off on a tangent, most fair minded folk on here thoroughly condemned the loss of life in the Middle east. This thread is about what is happening now,it was locked once by people stiring let's not let that happen again,you have made your point ok ?

[Lancasterclaret]

Rubbish!

The second Iraq war & the Afghan one...George Bush & friends'... was based on fabricated evidence of WMD.....387,000 civilians have lost their lives. 38 million people have been forcibly displaced in the post 9/11 wars
the wounded and maimed are not counted in this....American & UK bombs are just as deadly as Russian ones.....
But i like you're if you're not with us you're against us nonsense.....Gullible as fcuk!

Mate, this isn't the thread for this

[Taffy on the wing]

Still doesn't justify what the Russian army are doing.

I agree.

[elwaclaret]

Reuters announce Swiss owner of Nord Stream 2 pipeline is likely going to file for company insolvency

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/14 ... tJheA6-mHw

I was just about to post a link to that, just amazing seeing the tank shoot and hitting his building

[elwaclaret]

I was just about to post a link to that, just amazing seeing the tank shoot and hitting his building

All over Twitter, not sure how they deny that one; but they’ll find a way. (already a response that maybe they thought it was a rangefinder)

[GodIsADeeJay81]

All over Twitter, not sure how they deny that one; but they’ll find a way. (already a response that maybe they thought it was a rangefinder)

This bloke is still available for work....

download (31).jpeg (10.94 KiB) Viewed 3812 times

[Lancasterclaret]

All over Twitter, not sure how they deny that one; but they’ll find a way. (already a response that maybe they thought it was a rangefinder)

tbf, its a bloke standing up looking at them with something in his hand

Its not at that stage yet, but its just a matter of time before the Russians start shooting anything that they see, especially if they keep losing troops and equipment at the rate they are

[elwaclaret]

This bloke is still available for work....

download (31).jpeg

I thought he was employed at Elwood

[elwaclaret]

tbf, its a bloke standing up looking at them with something in his hand

Its not at that stage yet, but its just a matter of time before the Russians start shooting anything that they see, especially if they keep losing troops and equipment at the rate they are

I’m sure it’s a combination of being less sure than they were in many ways. Little doubt they have been told to stop letting people broadcast their deployments, given the threats made to students with camera’s trained on tanks, earlier. But yes I wouldn’t be too pleased to see anything pointing at me in a war zone in all honesty.

[Vegas Claret]

Rubbish!

The second Iraq war & the Afghan one...George Bush & friends'... was based on fabricated evidence of WMD.....387,000 civilians have lost their lives. 38 million people have been forcibly displaced in the post 9/11 wars
the wounded and maimed are not counted in this....American & UK bombs are just as deadly as Russian ones.....
But i like you're if you're not with us you're against us nonsense.....Gullible as fcuk!

Taffy, this thread is for info - we are trying desperately to keep the thread open and you are putting it at risk - please stop

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... Qpc4Q&s=19

Ukrainians have captured a Russian TOS-1A Thermobaric MRL....

[alboclaret]

tbf, its a bloke standing up looking at them with something in his hand

Its not at that stage yet, but its just a matter of time before the Russians start shooting anything that they see, especially if they keep losing troops and equipment at the rate they are

My thoughts exactly. The longer they are in the field the more paranoid and desperate they become which is when rules go out the window.

[Vegas Claret]

this is crazy
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498 ... XZRBtP2Mqw

[CombatClaret]

US defence analysis of why that convoy is still there

https://twitter.com/SashaIngber/status/ ... 9245790214

"Russians may be regrouping, rethinking, and reevaluating"

That's the most important part. The Russian's may finally be proving they are not insane in trying the same thing over and over expecting different results. That being sending small detachments in 'Race for the city' type operations then being surprised when they get minced.

With the shelling & missile attacks, it feels like a lot more systematic approach. My only surprise is that so far as we are aware they've not fully surrounded Kyiv. Stopping the flow of arms and food into the city should surely be priority one if they intend to take it.

[Vegas Claret]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498720233598734337

[Superjohnnyfrancis]

"Russians may be regrouping, rethinking, and reevaluating"

That's the most important part. The Russian's may finally be proving they are not insane in trying the same thing over and over expecting different results. That being sending small detachments in 'Race for the city' type operations then being surprised when they get minced.

With the shelling & missile attacks, it feels like a lot more systematic approach. My only surprise is that so far as we are aware they've not fully surrounded Kyiv. Stopping the flow of arms and food into the city should surely be priority one if they intend to take it.

Some of the Russian tanks look really old, looks like the new weapons Ukraine are using from the west are ******* them right up?

[Vegas Claret]

"Russians may be regrouping, rethinking, and reevaluating"

That's the most important part. The Russian's may finally be proving they are not insane in trying the same thing over and over expecting different results. That being sending small detachments in 'Race for the city' type operations then being surprised when they get minced.

With the shelling & missile attacks, it feels like a lot more systematic approach. My only surprise is that so far as we are aware they've not fully surrounded Kyiv. Stopping the flow of arms and food into the city should surely be priority one if they intend to take it.

https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1 ... 3717142529

[Vegas Claret]

Airbase in Kharkiv
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/14 ... XZRBtP2Mqw

[upanatem]

I found this a fascinating listen. It's a guy called David Murrin, who calls himself a 'global forecaster'. He has been speaking about the threats emanating from Russia and China for some time. Much of his output is behind a paywall; but this is a free listen. It's over 30 minutes in length. He summarises the war in Ukraine so far, our/the EU's reaction, where it could go from here and the bigger picture. Scroll down the page to the podcast entitled 'The state of it'.

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/media/pod ... ainian-war

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Airbase in Kharkiv
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/14 ... XZRBtP2Mqw

That's more than just an ammo dump going bang isn't it?

[Vegas Claret]

That's more than just an ammo dump going bang isn't it?

honestly not a clue tbh but it's grim - you can hear fighter jets though

[elwaclaret]

Europe making a point we don’t do dictators…

https://twitter.com/kyivpost/status/149 ... 10818?s=21

[elwaclaret]

German military histories take:
https://twitter.com/germilhistory/statu ... 26656?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

I found this a fascinating listen. It's a guy called David Murrin, who calls himself a 'global forecaster'. He has been speaking about the threats emanating from Russia and China for some time. Much of his output is behind a paywall; but this is a free listen. It's over 30 minutes in length. He summarises the war in Ukraine so far, our/the EU's reaction, where it could go from here and the bigger picture. Scroll down the page to the podcast entitled 'The state of it'.

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/media/pod ... ainian-war

interesting listen, thanks for posting

[tarkys_ears]

A report on russians using unencrypted analog comms. Along with no morale, no food and no supplies... explains why most of the strikes are missiles coming from Belarus

https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1 ... 9618503680

[TsarBomba]

I wish this thread would be pulled, it’s all emotional one sided rhetoric . Any chance of a Russian view ?

I follow a number of Russian accounts. One of them is by the mercenary group, Wagner.

Their videos are depraved, and will happily show the mutilated bodies of Ukrainian soldiers, whilst glorifying in the wanton destruction of a sovereign nation and its people.

I won’t be posting their links under any circumstances.

[TsarBomba]

Nord Stream 2 files for bankruptcy- Swiss officials.

[Vegas Claret]

Nord Stream 2 files for bankruptcy- Swiss officials.

I saw that but it's since been denied - time will tell

[TsarBomba]

I saw that but it's since been denied - time will tell

Yes, apologies, just seen the comments underneath. Now denying that they have filed for bankruptcy, although earlier all employees had reportedly been made redundant.

[Vegas Claret]

Yes, apologies, just seen the comments underneath. Now denying that they have filed for bankruptcy, although earlier all employees had reportedly been made redundant.

you would suspect it's only going to be a matter of time anyway

[KateR]

you would suspect it's only going to be a matter of time anyway

I was rather hoping that had really happened, it's the sort of thing that will really strike at them in terms of what will they gain at the end of this. I can see the sanctions going on a long time at this rate, and it's the ordinary people that it really bites, Putin and friends wont have any hardships in reality from the sanctions Yet they will clearly milk that in the propaganda machine for all it's worth, decrying the West and "look what they are doing to you and our economy".

I think it's a step to far at this moment in regard to the effect it will have in Europe, but I can see that some people will really realize what has been said by many regarding energy security.

[willsclarets]

I was rather hoping that had really happened, it's the sort of thing that will really strike at them in terms of what will hey gain at the end of this, I can see the sanctions going on a long time at this rate, and it's the ordinary people that it really bites, Putin and friends wont have any hardships in reality from the sanctions Yet they will clearly milk that in the propaganda machine for all it's worth, decrying the West and "look what they are doing to you and our economy".

I think it's a step to far at this moment in regard to the effect it will have in Europe, but I can see that some people will really realize what has been said by many regarding energy security.

On the other hand, I have a slim hope that the Russian people will see that putin and his pals enjoy all the benefits of Western values and are rolling in cash. The question "why are you doing this to our economy?" is one I hope they start to ask, surely the idea of liberation won't wash for long. Slim hope mind, I know.

[tiger76]

I was rather hoping that had really happened, it's the sort of thing that will really strike at them in terms of what will hey gain at the end of this, I can see the sanctions going on a long time at this rate, and it's the ordinary people that it really bites, Putin and friends wont have any hardships in reality from the sanctions Yet they will clearly milk that in the propaganda machine for all it's worth, decrying the West and "look what they are doing to you and our economy".

Yes it's a tricky balance with the sanctions, obviously the west want to hurt the Putin regime rather than the Russian populace, many of whom are against the war anyway.

And the issue might be if Putin then uses it as a way to paint the west in a bad light, but equally we can't just sit back and do nothing, and short of taking military action, which has been repeatedly ruled out, sanctions are the best weapon to try and damage the Putin war effort.

[KateR]

On the other hand, I have a slim hope that the Russian people will see that putin and his pals enjoy all the benefits of Western values and are rolling in cash. The question "why are you doing this to our economy?" is one I hope they start to ask, surely the idea of liberation won't wash for long. Slim hope mind, I know.

I totally agree but they know what happens as in the past and very recently, it basically need the whole country to act as one and I, unfortunately, don't believe they will. They will say it to each other, but will not want to be taken away from families, especially with harder times arriving every day of there normal lives at the moment, unfortunately they're not hurting enough for it to happen now or IMO for the month of March. A lot can happen in a day here, let alone a month, it's just ridiculously futile in many ways and causing so many pain unnecessarily.

[KateR]

Yes it's a tricky balance with the sanctions, obviously the west want to hurt the Putin regime rather than the Russian populace, many of whom are against the war anyway.

And the issue might be if Putin then uses it as a way to paint the west in a bad light, but equally we can't just sit back and do nothing, and short of taking military action, which has been repeatedly ruled out, sanctions are the best weapon to try and damage the Putin war effort.

Unfortunately sanction are the only avenue open, I wouldn't like to see the West/NATO move into the Ukraine and actually start fighting, for me it will make it worse and it will escalate and there will be no winners, just losers. I also don't think the sanctions will hurt enough for quite a long time and it will be well past where the Ukraine are stopping the Russian "might", it will have turned to street fight against an occupying force, it's just a very bad situation all round.

[Vegas Claret]

not sure I believe this tbh but if it turns out to be true then that's pretty incredible

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent again… claiming a capture of a Russian ‘soldier’
https://twitter.com/rezarvhimi/status/1 ... 40545?s=21