Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[martin_p]

From the EU's perspective, they can still claim Johnson's proposal was closer to meeting objectives but in the relatively minuscule timescale available it was impossible to feasibly strike a workable deal with regard to customs. They still hold the very strong card, narrative wise, that the time wasted since 2016 has made a no deal inevitable should that come to fruition.

And of course it has to be approved by the European Parliament and the current word is that there’s little chance of that in its current form. It would be a delicious irony if the vote was so close that the actions of the Brexit Party’s MEPs were crucial to it being accepted or not

[Erasmus]

I would say that the DUP have always been very pro-Brexit because it significantly undermines the Good Friday Agreement and widens the gap between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Being a member of the EU drew Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic much closer together and the DUP see leaving as a means of moving away from that. I don't think they have any other motivation in this whole debate. It's really counter-productive in that sense for those who would prefer peaceful co-existence in Ireland.

[Lancasterclaret]

I would say that the DUP have always been very pro-Brexit because it significantly undermines the Good Friday Agreement and widens the gap between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Being a member of the EU drew Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic much closer together and the DUP see leaving as a means of moving away from that. I don't think they have any other motivation in this whole debate. It's really counter-productive in that sense for those who would prefer peaceful co-existence in Ireland.

Often forgotten is that the DUP voted against the GFA and want it scrapped.

[summitclaret]

We have been repeatedly told though that the EU won't offer any concessions because they were unsure if they would be passed by a vote.

It does not need a formal vote. Clear public written statements from the ERG, DUP, Tory rebels, labour leavers and the relevant independents that they would vote for a deal along the lines of the new proposals would be adequate imo.

[summitclaret]

And of course it has to be approved by the European Parliament and the current word is that there’s little chance of that in its current form. It would be a delicious irony if the vote was so close that the actions of the Brexit Party’s MEPs were crucial to it being accepted or not

That would be a win win for me. If they get it through great. If it falls because of them, then the BP hands the next election to BJ and we leave a bit later.

[RingoMcCartney]

You need to stop viewing this from a Brexiteer point of view CC.

Us passing the deal through parliament in an indicitive vote is meaningless if the EU don't accept it.

This deal is very pro-Brexit , its not got a lot that the EU can agree to without throwing Ireland under the bus, which it will never do.

The cynic in me is screaming "this is all a con to make sure the Johnston wins his battle to be seen to be reasonable and the EU not to be"

A brexit deal that is guilty of being "very pro-Brexit "

Who'd have thought it!?





You're clearly not the high minded, political behemoth that you'd like to convince yourself and others of being are you Lancasterclaret!

When they release the pre match team sheets this weekend. I can imagine you taking an intake of breath and proclaiming. "Bloody hell, I'm not being funny, but the way Dyche has lined us up, I reckon he thinks we've a chance of winning!"


You've said what the cynic in you is screaming.

By saying ," This deal is very pro-Brexit " we also know what the Minister of The Bleading Obvious in you, is shouting too!

[willsclarets]

To call it a "pro-brexit" deal was perhaps a technical mis-step, but you're clutching at straws blowing it up into a faux pas worth that many hysterical laugher smileys. You know what he meant.

[RingoMcCartney]

To call it a "pro-brexit" deal was perhaps a technical mis-step, but you're clutching at straws blowing it up into a faux pas worth that many hysterical laugher smileys. You know what he meant.

Quick!

Look busy!

The Smiley Police are here!

[willsclarets]

good one.

[Lancasterclaret]

Good to see that the Uk Parliament can get a majority for a deal.

Course, the next problem is modifying it so that the Irish and the EU can also agree to it.

Thats not going to be easy, but its something.

[RingoMcCartney]

I'm confident that Lancasterclaret believes he's more than capable of explaining what he meant, when pointing out that a brexit deal was, " very pro-Brexit "

Its whether he's willing to get off his high horse and lower himself down to the rest of our level.

[Spijed]

That would be a win win for me. If they get it through great. If it falls because of them, then the BP hands the next election to BJ and we leave a bit later.

If the Brexit party are to hand the next election to the Conservatives how do The Tories win in areas where it's clear that Labour voters will only vote for the Brexit party if they don't vote for Labour?

[KateR]

This is the thing, the alternatives are pretty easy to map for the foreseeable future.

What we are trying to do is absolutely a massive leap into the dark.

What would be sensible is a slow disentanglement from the EU, over a period of years with us preparing properly for each stage.

What we are almost certainly going to have if we leave is overnight chaos and a continuing failure to understand the reality of what we are doing.

Until Brexit politicians start to acknowledge reality, then the % of the population that wants to Brexit won't either, and people like me (who to the annoyance of many, is the Cassandra of the board) will worry about where that ends up.

All those people believing stuff about "sunlit uplands", "they need us more than we need them", "easiest deal in history"?

How are they going to react when they find out they have been lied to?

And then they will remember that the PM is a proven liar.

And then what?

Thats why I'm worried

Thank you
I do agree with your thoughts but of course coming at it from a different angle, there is no easy fix.

Funny, I nicknamed myself Cassandra when I was working full times for the obvious reasons you know

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm confident that Lancasterclaret believes he's more than capable of explaining what he meant, when pointing out that a brexit deal was, " very pro-Brexit "

Its whether he's willing to get off his high horse and lower himself down to the rest of our level.

Telling you again

If you ask me questions without insults, you'll get an answer.

If you don't, then I won't

Seems fair enough to me.

[KateR]

It's funny. On this board over quite a few years I've found myself defending Corbyn against various attacks (despite belonging to a different party), and yet I've never used the; "oh, I'm so bored of this" defense - which I can only assume you mean by "tiresome". Deal with the issue. If his dishonesty isn't important, then explain why. It's not just me, but quite a few people on here are highlighting it, and we all have different political persuasions.

"You would be flouncing about in the shadowed lowlands, searching for gold, in a field of glitter-covered turds" - Guess who made that quote to who?

Johnson is a liar, and most people are looking for honest people to be in charge. Some people will just accept whatever he says as being the truth. Let's see who wins.

Andrew,
I have explained, more than once, you just don't seem capable of understanding or you are being deliberately obtuse, however whatever reason you have I will not be engaging or debating with you again on this because I am bored of this one mantra and your lack of thoughtful meaningful dialogue/debate.

[JohnMcGreal]

Statement issued by the European parliament’s Brexit steering group (BSG):

First, the UK proposals on customs and on regulatory aspects explicitly provide for infrastructure, controls and checks but are unclear as to exactly where and how these would be carried out. Any form of controls and checks in and around the border would signify the end of frictionless trade and as such would harm the all-island economy as well as represent a serious risk to the peace process, and could imply a serious risk for consumers and businesses. The proposals tabled by the UK government thus breach a range of fundamental principles and red lines passed in the resolutions of this house. At the same time, such controls would not be sufficient to guarantee the protection of EU consumers and businesses in all circumstances, thereby potentially leaving the EU with a significant hole in its Single Market.

Second, the UK proposals would operationally only be worked out in detail by the EU and the UK, or in the UK unilaterally, during the fourteen-month transition period. This does not provide the necessary certainty or fulfil the agreed principles in the Withdrawal Agreement. This would mean the European Parliament would have to give consent to the Protocol without knowing its full implications, nor having any guarantee as to its legal operation. This is unacceptable.

Third, the right of consent being offered to the Northern Irish Assembly effectively makes an agreement contingent, uncertain, provisional and unilateral decision, instead of the safety net provided for by the backstop. Furthermore, the Northern Irish Assembly has not sat for nearly three years and it is questionable whether it would be able to reconvene and take on the responsibility for an international treaty of this nature.

In summary, the BSG has grave concerns about the UK proposal, as tabled. Safeguarding peace and stability on the island of Ireland, protection of citizens and EU’s legal order has to be the main focus of any deal. The UK proposals do not match even remotely what was agreed as a sufficient compromise in the backstop.

EU Parliament says Johnson's plan is not remotely acceptable.

[summitclaret]

If the Brexit party are to hand the next election to the Conservatives how do The Tories win in areas where it's clear that Labour voters will only vote for the Brexit party if they don't vote for Labour?

They still will to punish labour/LD for their anti brexit stances and to get rid of Corbyn. The sooner labour get someone like Benn or Cooper in charge the sooner they can will have a chance again.

[Lancasterclaret]

There are some proper throbbers in the government

Liz Truss is certainly the Conservative Diane Abbott.

Jesus.

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/117 ... to-know%2F" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RingoMcCartney]

Telling you again

If you ask me questions without insults, you'll get an answer.

If you don't, then I won't

Seems fair enough to me.

You're not in a position to "tell" me anything. Save your breath.

However you could always tell the other mere mortals what you mean by a Brexit deal being "very pro-Brexit"

[KateR]

Who for?

They were elected as Labour MPs.

They weren't elected to pass a Tory Brexit plan.

And there we have it in a nutshell, regardless of a referendum, regardless of trying to get Brexit done, whatever the party in government do vote against it because if it is good or at least workable then the electorate will see that in a positive way.

I for one certainly hope MP's see there duty is first and foremost to there constituents and not to a blind party policy, one that which continually changes and is simply not a policy but an adaptation to what they think might gain them a few votes or seats.

Fortunately we have witnessed MP's changing and backing something's they personally disagree with and go against the party policy, this is why some people hope that this new attempt might be received in that light in an attempt to break the deadlock, doubtful but just maybe. However as we all know it will depend on the EU's final answer before we will see the outcome.

[Lancasterclaret]

You're not in a position to "tell" me anything. Save your breath.

However you could always tell the other mere mortals what you mean by a Brexit deal being "very pro-Brexit"

Politeness will get an answer.

You really are not getting this are you?

[willsclarets]

They still will to punish labour/LD for their anti brexit stances and to get rid of Corbyn. The sooner labour get someone like Benn or Cooper in charge the sooner they can will have a chance again.

I wouldn't quite characterise Labour's position as "anti-brexit" at least not in the same terms as I would the Lib Dems and in the way it would play in a general election. You might be underestimating Corbyn here, I wouldn't be at all suprised if his opposition to a no deal (and basically any Tory deal) but falling short of revoking article 50 like the Lib Dems, plays well in an election campaign. They may mop up enough unsure brexiteers and remainers alike, especially in the wake of several failed attempts by the Tories to execute Brexit.

[summitclaret]

I wouldn't quite characterise Labour's position as "anti-brexit" at least not in the same terms as I would the Lib Dems and in the way it would play in a general election. You might be underestimating Corbyn here, I wouldn't be at all suprised if his opposition to a no deal (and basically any Tory deal) but falling short of revoking article 50 like the Lib Dems, plays well in an election campaign. They may mop up enough unsure brexiteers and remainers alike, especially in the wake of several failed attempts by the Tories to execute Brexit.

They might but I would suggest that leavers and the undecided are more likely to see that the new policy is be on the fence for a GE but is for remain really.

[willsclarets]

They might but I would suggest that leavers and the undecided are more likely to see that the new policy is be on the fence for a GE but is for remain really.

I don't think any committed leavers would vote Labour, but the undecided and tentative leavers/remainers may well based on the pledge to offer another referendum. According to whatukthinks.org , the 'undecided' as of 9th September is up around 28% which is significant (based on the question: "If there was another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, how would you vote?") The risk for Labour is that there isn't enough appetite for another referendum, but sitting on the fence might pay off. Especially since it would be a one-issue election, I've always felt Corbyn's attempts to win a GE would collapse on domestic policy, particularly the economy. If that ceases to matter, he has a chance.

[dsr]

I don't think any committed leavers would vote Labour, but the undecided and tentative leavers/remainers may well based on the pledge to offer another referendum. According to whatukthinks.org , the 'undecided' as of 9th September is up around 28% which is significant (based on the question: "If there was another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, how would you vote?") The risk for Labour is that there isn't enough appetite for another referendum, but sitting on the fence might pay off. Especially since it would be a one-issue election, I've always felt Corbyn's attempts to win a GE would collapse on domestic policy, particularly the economy. If that ceases to matter, he has a chance.

I have my doubts that Labour's policy - which can be summed up, with a fair degree of accuracy, as "let's keep things as they are now" - will win many votes at all. The Conservatives will win votes because they claim (with some validity) to have a solution that will end this mess. The Liberals will win votes because they have a solution that they claim (with less validity) will end this mess. But Labour don't have any sort of sensible policy to end this mess, so they will get votes only frm those who don't care about Brexit or who think other matters are more important. And that may be the majority of the population, I dare say, but if they suddenly drop from (random numbers) 40% of the whole electorate to 40% of three quarters of the electorate, then it's big fall.

[RingoMcCartney]

Politeness will get an answer.

You really are not getting this are you?

You're assuming I want an answer.

Get over your self.

Thing is, when you regularly say to other posters, "you've gone full Ringo," "you're now sounding like Ringo" and "even Ringo wouldn't debate like that" or words to that effect. Which is something you're absolutely entitled to do.

Dont be surprised if I reckon that those that dish it out, should be able to take it.

That seems fair enough to me

[martin_p]

Good summary of the government’s thinking on the Irish border here.

https://newsthump.com/2019/10/02/govern ... ess-trade/

[willsclarets]

There are three policies as far as I can see: "Leave at all costs" (Tory) - "Remain at all costs" (Lib Dems) - "Have a second referendum" (Labour)

I think you're right in that Labour's position will be criticised for dragging it on, but the policy to reject a no deal and have a second referendum will be seen by some as a sensible policy on Brexit. I don't think it's accurate to suggest their position will only be attractive to those who don't care about it.

The tories will have the added scrutiny as "the party who made this mess" too, which won't help their cause.

[dsr]

Good summary of the government’s thinking on the Irish border here.

https://newsthump.com/2019/10/02/govern ... ess-trade/

It's not a good summary, because yet again someone does not understand what "control of our borders" means. It has NEVER BEEN SUGGESTED that leaving the EU will stop Europeans from entering this country. There is no suggestion of detailed visas being obtained that will stop people crossing the border. The point of "control of our borders" is that it will be possible, if desired, to prevent people from coming here to work. Not that it will prevent them coming here at all.

[martin_p]

It's not a good summary, because yet again someone does not understand what "control of our borders" means. It has NEVER BEEN SUGGESTED that leaving the EU will stop Europeans from entering this country. There is no suggestion of detailed visas being obtained that will stop people crossing the border. The point of "control of our borders" is that it will be possible, if desired, to prevent people from coming here to work. Not that it will prevent them coming here at all.

You know it’s a joke right?

[dsr]

You know it’s a joke right?

There is no telling what is a joke and what isn't on this subject.

[Lancasterclaret]

You're assuming I want an answer.

Get over your self.

Thing is, when you regularly say to other posters, "you've gone full Ringo," "you're now sounding like Ringo" and "even Ringo wouldn't debate like that" or words to that effect. Which is something you're absolutely entitled to do.

Dont be surprised if I reckon that those that dish it out, should be able to take it.

That seems fair enough to me

You don't want an answer?

So you just want to log on to have a go?

Hey man, whatever floats your boat.

At least we know now

[Lancasterclaret]

And there we have it in a nutshell, regardless of a referendum, regardless of trying to get Brexit done, whatever the party in government do vote against it because if it is good or at least workable then the electorate will see that in a positive way.

I for one certainly hope MP's see there duty is first and foremost to there constituents and not to a blind party policy, one that which continually changes and is simply not a policy but an adaptation to what they think might gain them a few votes or seats.

Fortunately we have witnessed MP's changing and backing something's they personally disagree with and go against the party policy, this is why some people hope that this new attempt might be received in that light in an attempt to break the deadlock, doubtful but just maybe. However as we all know it will depend on the EU's final answer before we will see the outcome.

I think if there was a Brexit deal that took into account Labour concerns, then I'd completely agree with you.

But this doesn't do that. Its a Brexit for the right wing of the Conservative Party, and because its that, it takes no account of Labour concerns, EU concerns and especially Scottish and Irish concerns.

Its not a unifying Brexit, unless the aim is to unify against it.

[martin_p]

Not many positive noises coming from the EU today.

[aggi]

I have my doubts that Labour's policy - which can be summed up, with a fair degree of accuracy, as "let's keep things as they are now" - will win many votes at all. The Conservatives will win votes because they claim (with some validity) to have a solution that will end this mess. The Liberals will win votes because they have a solution that they claim (with less validity) will end this mess. But Labour don't have any sort of sensible policy to end this mess, so they will get votes only frm those who don't care about Brexit or who think other matters are more important. And that may be the majority of the population, I dare say, but if they suddenly drop from (random numbers) 40% of the whole electorate to 40% of three quarters of the electorate, then it's big fall.

What solution is that? They've had a variety but there isn't one that I've thought "This will end this mess"

[dsr]

What solution is that? They've had a variety but there isn't one that I've thought "This will end this mess"

Leaving the EU. At the moment, businesses (and everyone else, of course) don't know whether we are in or out or shaking it all about. Once we're out, we're out. The future position will be much more certain.

Further messes will arise, I dare say. But this current mess is largely that one side is trying to leave the EU and the other side is trying to thwart them. That particular struggle will have ended if we leave.

[Mala591]

Next step is for the EU to formally list their objections/concerns in Johnson's draft proposals. Then several days of intense negotiations to try and reach a compromise acceptable to both sides.

The indication that the UK parliament will support the Johnson proposals cannot be underestimated and this will put pressure on the EU to find a solution that will avoid a no-deal exit.

[willsclarets]

I really don't think that pressure is equal to the big red flag raised by the northern Ireland customs solution. I may be wrong but I suspect that will stop any deal even reaching parliament.

[RingoMcCartney]

Politeness will get an answer.

You really are not getting this are you?

Listen to yourself!

"Politeness will get an answer"

You sound like the head mistress of young ladies finishing school! When exactly, did I sign up for improving my etiquette and manners in
preparation for entry into society.!!!??




Are you Miss Jean Brodie!!??

[Lancasterclaret]

Leaving the EU. At the moment, businesses (and everyone else, of course) don't know whether we are in or out or shaking it all about. Once we're out, we're out. The future position will be much more certain.

Further messes will arise, I dare say. But this current mess is largely that one side is trying to leave the EU and the other side is trying to thwart them. That particular struggle will have ended if we leave.

It won't though.

Thats why its important for your Brexit that you do this bit 100% correct.

[Lancasterclaret]

The indication that the UK parliament will support the Johnson proposals cannot be underestimated and this will put pressure on the EU to find a solution that will avoid a no-deal exit.

It can't be overestimated either, and I feel that it already has been.

What isn't acceptable to the EU will remain unacceptable to the EU.

I'm still of the opinion that this is backed by the DUP and ERG because they know the EU will never accept it.

[aggi]

Leaving the EU. At the moment, businesses (and everyone else, of course) don't know whether we are in or out or shaking it all about. Once we're out, we're out. The future position will be much more certain.

Further messes will arise, I dare say. But this current mess is largely that one side is trying to leave the EU and the other side is trying to thwart them. That particular struggle will have ended if we leave.

I haven't seen a solution from them to end the uncertainty though. They haven't got a deal that will float and obviously No Deal won't give any certainty.

[summitclaret]

There are three policies as far as I can see: "Leave at all costs" (Tory) - "Remain at all costs" (Lib Dems) - "Have a second referendum" (Labour)

I think you're right in that Labour's position will be criticised for dragging it on, but the policy to reject a no deal and have a second referendum will be seen by some as a sensible policy on Brexit. I don't think it's accurate to suggest their position will only be attractive to those who don't care about it.

The tories will have the added scrutiny as "the party who made this mess" too, which won't help their cause.

You have got the tory policy wrong. It's leave with a deal but with no WA if the EU won't agree one.

[KateR]

I think if there was a Brexit deal that took into account Labour concerns, then I'd completely agree with you.

But this doesn't do that. Its a Brexit for the right wing of the Conservative Party, and because its that, it takes no account of Labour concerns, EU concerns and especially Scottish and Irish concerns.

Its not a unifying Brexit, unless the aim is to unify against it.

Well like every discussion and thought on this overall subject it all depends on which side of the argument you come from as to your take away and thoughts for the near/mid/long term future, hopefully we can all agree on this point, queue the jokes

If we look at some facts that I also we can agree on (the two of us plus hopefully others) there is no point trying to debate them now as they are a fact of life, these are:

1. DC went to EU got nothing, called for a referendum, result of referendum: decision to leave, yes point taken, small majority.
2. Did people tell untruths/exaggerate to make there cause sound better, yes. Call it lie if you wish, makes no difference.
3. All MP's (parliament) voted to enact Article 50
4. Quickly moved from easy to do to wow this is not easy to downright difficult (and just about impossible shortly IMO)
5. Opposition parties and some Tory MP's (Parliament) continually vote against a Government deal, it's a non-starter
6. Change of PM in order to move forward with Brexit, no change in Parliament. (Am deliberately leaving out some facts)
7. PM/Government presents alternative plan, numerous against MP's now agreeing to new plan (Maybe Parliament majority for)

Simplified version of event dating back several years, and could add reams more but for this purpose I do not believe relevant.

So here we are today, now we are all guessing, maybe with 90%+ certainty but still a guess.

A. Will the new plan as is be agreed by EU, think we can all agree the guess in a resounding NO.
B. Will EU try to work around the new plan to something Gov/BJ accepts, maybe try, outcome no not acceptable to BJ.
C. BJ presents "facts" to parliament in a EU last attempt to do a deal before 31 Oct. BJ recommends NO, Parliament vote - NO
D. Parliament now also sees, (which it should have done long since) not possible to do a deal with the EU that it would accept.
E. Path forward; GE or New Referendum. Jump straight to revoke Article 50 will be tabled, my guess not a chance.
F. Extension granted in this phase, can anyone truly believe that a resolution can be agreed by both sides to leave, not me.

Will some people move to there was a willingness that has been rejected and they will never move from the backstop position. This move could be towards No deal, queue ERG/DUP maybe some labour. Or move to remain, revoke Article 50, stay, queue Lib/Dems/Remainers and some labour. However this is immaterial as Parliament wont do either of those and we move, as a first default GE.

My thoughts on parties:
I. SNP, a group clearly will campaign on Remain, plus Indy mark 2, another bunch of MP's who will not honor the results of Indy 1.
II Lib/Dem along with Green and certain independents campaign on remain, revoke Article 50, stay, everything will be ok.
III Tory campaign on leave, given thoughts on A above, it will be a No Deal Leave campaign
IV Brexit Party also campaign on No Deal Leave.
V Labour, am not really sure what they will campaign off, if it's we will negotiate a deal, who would believe it?

GE results anyone's guess but I would be in the 95%+ that Lib/Dems and Greens will have gains but no where near enough.
Will Tory/Brexit party work together, doubtful, some Brexit MP's but not enough. Lot's of pre-work already been done here.
Labour I forecast will lose seats from pre-GE. Will they try to work with Lib/Dems/Greens/SNP to form a Gov, don't think so
SNP win but lose more seats, Indy 2 and trying to work a deal with EU to remain are really hurtful to those North of that border.

GE results will drive whether we leave No Deal or we Remain, Revoke Article 50. I do not believe there will be any appetite to try to negotiate another deal with the EU.

Back to today, both EU Ireland adamant regarding no border, so what happens if GE brings No Deal, potentially it means sort yourselves out, there will be a hard border and other major risks, GFA for example. Is this risk real, that is what you have to ask yourselves and put on a EU/Ireland cap and decide now because I can not see going back if the GE goes against them. If your answer is that the risk is low, maybe given UK's lack of unity and parliaments inability to agree anything, maybe the upside of Remain outweighs the risk.

Back to today and the exciting/critical things to look out for along with my thoughts
Will the EU negotiate and form a deal - NO (resolved this month)
Will Parliament agree, don't think there will be anything to agree or not but if there is - Yes (resolved this month)
Will we leave Oct 31st, - No (Will be resolved this month)
Will we have an extension, - Yes (will it be 3 months, maybe but am skeptical, more likely a Year or to Dec 2020.
Will we have a GE - YES (Will it be this year, only if it is in Nov, doubtful but possible, most likely scenario Feb 2020)
Will we Leave - YES (doubtful with a deal but I still hope so)
Will the remain people accept the GE results, NO (I hope so but am doubtful)
Will the EU/Ireland come back if it is a No Deal result YES (will they get anything YES I believe they would but not as good as being offered today)

anyway for what it is worth that is my thoughts, unfortunately not in a nutshell sorry

[KateR]

Well like every discussion and thought on this overall subject it all depends on which side of the argument you come from as to your take away and thoughts for the near/mid/long term future, hopefully we can all agree on this point, queue the jokes

If we look at some facts that I also we can agree on (the two of us plus hopefully others) there is no point trying to debate them now as they are a fact of life, these are:

1. DC went to EU got nothing, called for a referendum, result of referendum: decision to leave, yes point taken, small majority.
2. Did people tell untruths/exaggerate to make there cause sound better, yes. Call it lie if you wish, makes no difference.
3. All MP's (parliament) voted to enact Article 50
4. Quickly moved from easy to do to wow this is not easy to downright difficult (and just about impossible shortly IMO)
5. Opposition parties and some Tory MP's (Parliament) continually vote against a Government deal, it's a non-starter
6. Change of PM in order to move forward with Brexit, no change in Parliament. (Am deliberately leaving out some facts)
7. PM/Government presents alternative plan, numerous against MP's now agreeing to new plan (Maybe Parliament majority for)
8. DUP/NI results I simply do not know enough but since majority voted to stay the DUP may also lose seats

Will there be another coalition, Yes I think so but hope not.

Simplified version of event dating back several years, and could add reams more but for this purpose I do not believe relevant.

So here we are today, now we are all guessing, maybe with 90%+ certainty but still a guess.

A. Will the new plan as is be agreed by EU, think we can all agree the guess in a resounding NO.
B. Will EU try to work around the new plan to something Gov/BJ accepts, maybe try, outcome no not acceptable to BJ.
C. BJ presents "facts" to parliament in a EU last attempt to do a deal before 31 Oct. BJ recommends NO, Parliament vote - NO
D. Parliament now also sees, (which it should have done long since) not possible to do a deal with the EU that it would accept.
E. Path forward; GE or New Referendum. Jump straight to revoke Article 50 will be tabled, my guess not a chance.
F. Extension granted in this phase, can anyone truly believe that a resolution can be agreed by both sides to leave, not me.

Will some people move to there was a willingness that has been rejected and they will never move from the backstop position. This move could be towards No deal, queue ERG/DUP maybe some labour. Or move to remain, revoke Article 50, stay, queue Lib/Dems/Remainers and some labour. However this is immaterial as Parliament wont do either of those and we move, as a first default GE.

My thoughts on parties:
I. SNP, a group clearly will campaign on Remain, plus Indy mark 2, another bunch of MP's who will not honor the results of Indy 1.
II Lib/Dem along with Green and certain independents campaign on remain, revoke Article 50, stay, everything will be ok.
III Tory campaign on leave, given thoughts on A above, it will be a No Deal Leave campaign
IV Brexit Party also campaign on No Deal Leave.
V Labour, am not really sure what they will campaign off, if it's we will negotiate a deal, who would believe it?

GE results anyone's guess but I would be in the 95%+ that Lib/Dems and Greens will have gains but no where near enough.
Will Tory/Brexit party work together, doubtful, some Brexit MP's but not enough. Lot's of pre-work already been done here.
Labour I forecast will lose seats from pre-GE. Will they try to work with Lib/Dems/Greens/SNP to form a Gov, don't think so
SNP win but lose more seats, Indy 2 and trying to work a deal with EU to remain are really hurtful to those North of that border.

GE results will drive whether we leave No Deal or we Remain, Revoke Article 50. I do not believe there will be any appetite to try to negotiate another deal with the EU.

Back to today, both EU Ireland adamant regarding no border, so what happens if GE brings No Deal, potentially it means sort yourselves out, there will be a hard border and other major risks, GFA for example. Is this risk real, that is what you have to ask yourselves and put on a EU/Ireland cap and decide now because I can not see going back if the GE goes against them. If your answer is that the risk is low, maybe given UK's lack of unity and parliaments inability to agree anything, maybe the upside of Remain outweighs the risk.

Back to today and the exciting/critical things to look out for along with my thoughts
Will the EU negotiate and form a deal - NO (resolved this month)
Will Parliament agree, don't think there will be anything to agree or not but if there is - Yes (resolved this month)
Will we leave Oct 31st, - No (Will be resolved this month)
Will we have an extension, - Yes (will it be 3 months, maybe but am skeptical, more likely a Year or to Dec 2020.
Will we have a GE - YES (Will it be this year, only if it is in Nov, doubtful but possible, most likely scenario Feb 2020)
Will we Leave - YES (doubtful with a deal but I still hope so)
Will the remain people accept the GE results, NO (I hope so but am doubtful)
Will the EU/Ireland come back if it is a No Deal result YES (will they get anything YES I believe they would but not as good as being offered today)

anyway for what it is worth that is my thoughts, unfortunately not in a nutshell sorry

[willsclarets]

You have got the tory policy wrong. It's leave with a deal but with no WA if the EU won't agree one.

With Boris Johnson exclaiming he'd rather be dead in a ditch than agree a Brexit extension, I think my assertion that the Tory policy is "leave at all costs" though lacking in nuance, is not wrong.

[Lancasterclaret]

Its still my belief that we will have an extension, an election and then whoever is in charge will dictate what Brexit we have or don't have.

I think the Tories have a much better chance of winning than anyone else, but its not a guarantee.

I think those who voted down Mays WA are now absolutely bricking it that they potentially lost Brexit, which goes a long way to explaining their support for this deal.

I think whatever happens, the divisions will persist and divide for at least a generation and if that is added to the trauma of a "No Deal" Brexit, then it might be a lot worse than that.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Love how Ringo has been stewing on Lancaster’s politeness post and had to reply twice to it over an hour apart.

Excellent. Classic Ringo.

[summitclaret]

With Boris Johnson exclaiming he'd rather be dead in a ditch than agree a Brexit extension, I think my assertion that the Tory policy is "leave at all costs" though lacking in nuance, is not wrong.

You either don't understand about negotiating positions or don't want to do you.

[willsclarets]

You either don't understand about negotiating positions or don't want to do you.

I'm not sure what your point is? In the event no successful negotiation can take place, Tory policy is to leave on a no deal. In what sense does this negate my basic assertion, in relation to the other party's positions, that Tory policy is "leave at all costs".