Russia Invades

[Firthy]

They've hit two schools and killed children, they're randomly shelling cities and killing civilians and continue to ramp up the invasion while using peace talks as a smoke screen yet the EU continue to buy gas and oil from them and won't implement the most damaging sanction because it will hurt the West's economy and push up prices. Small price to pay if it has the desired affect and saves Ukranian lives.

I can understand the West and NATO not wanting direct conflict because of the threat of a nuclear war but not imposing the most disruptive sanctions is a cop out IMO. I'm afraid the Ukranians will have to fight this war on their own.

[Lancasterclaret]

Richard Masters of the PL suggests "the war could be stopped if Putin was somehow taken out"

Just how powerful are the Premier League these days?

Is it a warning shot to those clubs wanting to join a European Super League?

https://twitter.com/ben_rumsby/status/1 ... 2889798661

[elwaclaret]

They've hit two schools and killed children, they're randomly shelling cities and killing civilians and continue to ramp up the invasion while using peace talks as a smoke screen yet the EU continue to buy gas and oil from them and won't implement the most damaging sanction because it will hurt the West's economy and push up prices. Small price to pay if it has the desired affect and saves Ukranian lives.

I can understand the West and NATO not wanting direct conflict because of the threat of a nuclear war but not imposing the most disruptive sanctions is a cop out IMO. I'm afraid the Ukranians will have to fight this war on their own.

Looks increasingly like the suppliers themselves are refusing to deal with Russia. Russian oil is currently two-thirds of the price of world oil price… but no one is buying.

[Lancasterclaret]

They've hit two schools and killed children, they're randomly shelling cities and killing civilians and continue to ramp up the invasion while using peace talks as a smoke screen yet the EU continue to buy gas and oil from them and won't implement the most damaging sanction because it will hurt the West's economy and push up prices. Small price to pay if it has the desired affect and saves Ukranian lives.

I can understand the West and NATO not wanting direct conflict because of the threat of a nuclear war but not imposing the most disruptive sanctions is a cop out IMO. I'm afraid the Ukranians will have to fight this war on their own.

Existing contracts I think

Contracts for the future not being bought at all

[Lancasterclaret]

More realistic map of Russian movements

Can't stress this enough, they can't possibly control the areas beyond these arrows, and if those areas are full of Ukrainians with AK-47s and RPGS, then their supply situation will become critical quickly

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1499384684807323656

[IanMcL]

Russia is a permanent member (for WW2), they can Veto any UN mandate.

As it is about them, their action is in breach. Expel them first!

[elwaclaret]

Amazing how Germany has changed its spots in reaction to the invasion. The pacifists of Europe are among the most damning in the West.

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 75457?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Good summary of the changes to the European security situation, from a former Finnish foreign secretary

Again, the world has changed overnight, and it will affect us all

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/14 ... 2992627716

[Colburn_Claret]

Amazing how Germany has changed its spots in reaction to the invasion. The pacifists of Europe are among the most damning in the West.

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 75457?s=21

Not so much pacifists. One of the conditions of the post WWII treaty was that Germany couldn't re-arm. That was removed several years ago, but they were far more interested in consolidating their manufacturing power than a military one. I think any German watching the Ukraine and looking at the body language of Putin, would accept that they can't go on ignoring the threat that still exists.

[Lancasterclaret]

Not so much pacifists. One of the conditions of the post WWII treaty was that Germany couldn't re-arm. That was removed several years ago, but they were far more interested in consolidating their manufacturing power than a military one. I think any German watching the Ukraine and looking at the body language of Putin, would accept that they can't go on ignoring the threat that still exists.

I don't think any European country can

I'll be amazed if we aren't having very urgent discussions about what direction to go with our armed forces.

The last review was only last year, but its got nothing in it about Russia deciding to go full USSR

[elwaclaret]

Amazing how Germany has changed its spots in reaction to the invasion. The pacifists of Europe are among the most damning in the West.

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 75457?s=21

Not that simple, sadly. The one legitimate avenue of World view that Russia cannot deny. That is why the UN are meeting daily despite the fact they know they cannot ‘pass’ anything. It is the world what Russia is, and allowing the Russian Government to openly demonstrate their warped view of the World is to blame for why the WORLD is effecting the lives of ordinary Russians.

It is he diplomatic lifeline and UN will be where the Russian capitulation will be first evident.

[elwaclaret]

Not so much pacifists. One of the conditions of the post WWII treaty was that Germany couldn't re-arm. That was removed several years ago, but they were far more interested in consolidating their manufacturing power than a military one. I think any German watching the Ukraine and looking at the body language of Putin, would accept that they can't go on ignoring the threat that still exists.

Quite right about the treaty WW2, but NATO has been asking Germany to pull their weight more in defence for several years, having removed the sanction. Germany has always refused.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status ... 1829397506

Putin called and talked to Macron for 1 1/2 hour today.

Nothing he said reassured the French at all, who are now preparing for the "worst"

Course, the worst isn't good

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1 ... 3151813632

Russians being the "good guys" in Kherson

Compared with blasting Khark'iv

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499273571645984769

[Lancasterclaret]

Russian TV

I mean, there are no words to how daft this all is, but if people don't hear anything else, and haven't for decades then......

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/14 ... 2191844353

[Firthy]

Existing contracts I think

Contracts for the future not being bought at all

And they won't break those contracts. Even the OPEC nations are cashing in on the war refusing to up production, they're sitting pretty with a barrel of crude oil at 120 dollars.

[Lancasterclaret]

And they won't break those contracts. Even the OPEC nations are cashing in on the war refusing to up production, they're sitting pretty with a barrel of crude oil at 120 dollars.

Yes, but those contracts will end, and Russia will have no one to buy their oil and gas

That is the ultimate sword of Damocles that we have (apart from THAT one) and it looks like we might have to use it

We might even have to break those existing contracts and take the hit if Russia continues the war its going

Honestly, they are rushing into full on mental warmongering over drive

The Duma are considering a draft proposal that anyone arrested for protesting against the war will be conscripted into the army ffs

[Lancasterclaret]

I can't put this any plainer than this

75% of their army is currently getting mauled in Ukraine

They don't have anything to threaten the West apart from stopping the oil and gas (which cripples their economy)

Unless they threaten with their strategic forces

It doesn't look good does it?

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

May have missed this further up but stories in the press Putin set to declare martial law and close Russia’s borders.

[Lancasterclaret]

May have missed this further up but stories in the press Putin set to declare martial law and close Russia’s borders.

I was going to mention it, but then it all went a bit silly with the stuff that Russia are coming out with

Thanks for posting it!

[GodIsADeeJay81]

I can't put this any plainer than this

75% of their army is currently getting mauled in Ukraine

They don't have anything to threaten the West apart from stopping the oil and gas (which cripples their economy)

Unless they threaten with their strategic forces

It doesn't look good does it?

Don't you mean 75% of th invading force and not their entire army?

[Lancasterclaret]

Don't you mean 75% of th invading force and not their entire army?

No, its 75% of their entire army

They pulled troops from everywhere to do this

[ALP]

Talks underway again

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1 ... 4464637969

[Vegas Claret]

I'm surprised the Ukrainian's/west haven't started using IED's in certain places (as grim as they obviously are)

[Vegas Claret]

No, its 75% of their entire army

They pulled troops from everywhere to do this

not what I'd read either, I was of the opinion that it was of an invading force. If what you say is true then they are even worse than previously thought

[Lancasterclaret]

not what I'd read either, I was of the opinion that it was of an invading force. If what you say is true then they are even worse than previously thought

I'll check my percentages, but they have pulled troops from all the other military districts

I think I got them from Rob lees thread so I don't think I'm far out

Main point is that they have no way of threatening NATO with conventional forces because they are in or around Ukraine

[taio]

No, its 75% of their entire army

They pulled troops from everywhere to do this

What's the source of your information on this?

[elwaclaret]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1 ... 3151813632

Russians being the "good guys" in Kherson

Compared with blasting Khark'iv

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499273571645984769

Bit late for a ‘hearts and minds offensive’ me thinks

[Lancasterclaret]

What's the source of your information on this?

Rob lees thread on twitter

I'll try to find it, but it might take some time as there has been quite a lot going on since he posted it pre-invasion

I might be out by a few percent, but seriously, they don't have the troops to threaten NATO and invade Ukraine

[Vegas Claret]

I'll check my percentages, but they have pulled troops from all the other military districts

I think I got them from Rob lees thread so I don't think I'm far out

Main point is that they have no way of threatening NATO with conventional forces because they are in or around Ukraine

the highest number I've seen anywhere was 190K

[Lancasterclaret]

Russian investment expert on Russian morning TV

(translation below footage)

https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1 ... 3063958530

[Lancasterclaret]

the highest number I've seen anywhere was 190K

Yeah, but again, they don't have the forces to threaten us and invade Ukraine

They just don't

Even their full army isn't big enough to take on NATO

[taio]

Rob lees thread on twitter

I'll try to find it, but it might take some time as there has been quite a lot going on since he posted it pre-invasion

I might be out by a few percent, but seriously, they don't have the troops to threaten NATO and invade Ukraine

Cheers. Surely he'll be incorrect especially pre-invasion - widely reported at the time that 150k - 190k we ready to be deployed. I think their active military personnel is circa 1m.

[Lancasterclaret]

Cheers. Surely he'll be incorrect especially pre-invasion - widely reported at the time that 150k - 190k we ready to be deployed. I think their active military personnel is circa 1m.

Its the actual combat power that is key though

They don't have 1,000,000 combat troops

They are not in a position to threaten us with their army and invade Ukraine, that is completely beyond their capability

[elwaclaret]

Russai’s fine of RosComNazdor treated with the contempt in deserves.. they will wait a couple of weeks and send 10cents

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 87104?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/kimwillsher1/status ... 5197451268

Bit more on his conversation with Macron

Sounds like he's going all for all Ukraine

I don't think he can do that, hold it and I also don't see how people close to him can't see that either

[Vegas Claret]

Yeah, but again, they don't have the forces to threaten us and invade Ukraine

They just don't

Even their full army isn't big enough to take on NATO

not debating that point, just the numbers you are quoting as deployed that's all

[Vegas Claret]

https://twitter.com/kimwillsher1/status ... 5197451268

Bit more on his conversation with Macron

Sounds like he's going all for all Ukraine

I don't think he can do that, hold it and I also don't see how people close to him can't see that either

grim, not sure what options it leaves for NATO at this point

[elwaclaret]

Britain wanting to formalise bans on remaining Russian Banks

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1 ... 81381?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Poland increasing defense spending from 2.5% of GDP to 3% of GDP next year

Surely that sort of increase is going to be across the board in NATO countries, or anyone who borders Russia

[taio]

Its the actual combat power that is key though

They don't have 1,000,000 combat troops

They are not in a position to threaten us with their army and invade Ukraine, that is completely beyond their capability

I'm not questioning the point about them attacking NATO at the same time. Incidentally that would be a completely different ball game. Im disputing the 75% figure. I don't believe it's close. I read something from a US spokesperson the other day who said two thirds of the invasion personnel had been deployed into Ukraine.

[JarrowClaret]

Interesting Twitter thread sort of about the Russian 1 start General apparently killed but mainly about the failure of Russian Paras.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 92423?s=21

[JarrowClaret]

https://twitter.com/kimwillsher1/status ... 5197451268

Bit more on his conversation with Macron

Sounds like he's going all for all Ukraine

I don't think he can do that, hold it and I also don't see how people close to him can't see that either

I don’t think his whole Army has the capacity to hold the whole of Ukraine, unless he is joined by others that is but it would need maybe a million Soldiers or similar.

[JarrowClaret]

I can't put this any plainer than this

75% of their army is currently getting mauled in Ukraine

They don't have anything to threaten the West apart from stopping the oil and gas (which cripples their economy)

Unless they threaten with their strategic forces

It doesn't look good does it?

75% of the force amassed near the border I think not the entire Russian Army.

[elwaclaret]

I'm not questioning the point about them attacking NATO at the same time. Incidentally that would be a completely different ball game. Im disputing the 75% figure. I don't believe it's close. I read something from a US spokesperson the other day who said two thirds of the invasion personnel had been deployed into Ukraine.

They’ll need more than that to make sure supplies get out of Russia the way things are going. Clearly some very influential people now risking imprisonment or worse for speaking out against the war, trusted Russian financial advisors and firms announcing the death of Russian financial industry.

[Firthy]

Yeah, but again, they don't have the forces to threaten us and invade Ukraine

They just don't

Even their full army isn't big enough to take on NATO

Hence the reason for the nuke threat.

[Paul Waine]

I'm very reluctant to get involved in this thread. I've no desire to put myself forward as an "armchair military strategist" or anything similar.

However, anyone who wants to get an idea on Russian military numbers I'd recommend to take a look at what the CIA's World Factbook says. They report 850,000 military.

Maybe WFB is incorrect, however, I'd also look for what RUSI and Economist Intelligence Unit say about the accuracy of WFB as a general guide.

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm not questioning the point about them attacking NATO at the same time. Incidentally that would be a completely different ball game. Im disputing the 75% figure. I don't believe it's close. I read something from a US spokesperson the other day who said two thirds of the invasion personnel had been deployed into Ukraine.

No, I get that

I think the state department said that 80% of the combat troops around Ukraine had now been deployed yesterday

I can't remember now if it was 75% or 65% of their total combat troops (not including reservists) deployed to outside Ukraine

Argh, I try to find the thread about it

[elwaclaret]

I'm very reluctant to get involved in this thread. I've no desire to put myself forward as an "armchair military strategist" or anything similar.

However, anyone who wants to get an idea on Russian military numbers I'd recommend to take a look at what the CIA's World Factbook says. They report 850,000 military.

Maybe WFB is incorrect, however, I'd also look for what RUSI and Economist Intelligence Unit say about the accuracy of WFB as a general guide.

Sadly Paul, the CIA have a long tradition of having their own agendas. Great source for the historian… not so useful for open access of what current thinking is.

[Lancasterclaret]

Russia clearly just now doing indiscriminate bombing of civilians

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1499414309645991957