Labour - either very confident or very stupid

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dsr
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Re: Labour - either very confident or very stupid

Post by dsr » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:30 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:I really don't think they would accept this, and the governments impact assessments also say the opposite - but, of course, (as you are going to tell us), these assessments could be wildly wrong.
Most accept that brexit is going to cost a lot of money in the short term. Whether there will be long term economic benefits - only time will tell.
(But I doubt I'll be around to enjoy them, unless we get some really good deals).
Really? As things stand, we pay about £8bn per year to the EU - if we were to remain, we would (all else being equal and ignoring inflation) still be paying this every year up to and beyond 2064.

CrosspoolClarets
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Re: Labour - either very confident or very stupid

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:20 pm

First of all, the money till 2064 or whenever is because we insisted on paying pensions when they are due not up front. The right option.

Second, it is only due as and when we strike a deal. If it is no deal, I expect no payment, or as a minimum not a diamond encrusted one.

May is doing better recently. A foreign policy crisis is always good to shore up support. If she is tough with Russia in a non military sense she will win people over. Conversely, most of the country has this week become more convinced that Corbyn would be a disaster for the UK. The Russians won’t ease off their tricks with him in charge, they will ramp them up. His lack of criticism of them yesterday was unprecedented for a major party UK leader, and shows he does not have this country at heart (he has many of it’s citizens at heart, but that isn’t the same thing). He cannot now get elected, I would bet my life on it.

So it’s an open door for May. Will she name Putins top 10 oligarch buddies in the UK, freeze their assets (including some very famous ones), and revoke their visas? Say their children cannot be educated in our universities? Taking money or investments from friendly but abhorrent regimes is one thing, taking them from enemies is quite another. THAT would send a strong message.

nil_desperandum
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Re: Labour - either very confident or very stupid

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:41 pm

dsr wrote:Really? As things stand, we pay about £8bn per year to the EU - if we were to remain, we would (all else being equal and ignoring inflation) still be paying this every year up to and beyond 2064.
Yes, most people with any interest in the topic are aware of this, and are also aware that it's well under 0.5% of GDP.
But now tell us what we don't actually know. i.e. how much will it cost per year for all the things that the 8.6 billion currently pays for and gives us access to?
What will we pay in order to access markets?, what will be paying additionally for security?, what will we be paying in order to secure our borders?
What will we pay to our farmers, the Welsh, the Irish etc. etc.? (They all want some, even areas that voted "leave").
Then there are things like science and technology, the list goes on.
Don't forget that the Norwegians pay roughly the same as us to the EU (per head of population) for all that they want / get out of it.

And all that before we even factor in our own governments impact assessments that suggest quite dramatic hits to most sectors with a resulting hit to the economy. tax revenues etc. (As I said in previous post these could be wrong).
And if we get a significant number of EU workers returning to Europe, and a significant number of ex-pats feel compelled to return to the UK, then the costs to the NHS and for social care will significantly escalate.
Of course there are economists who agree with you that we will be better off- but they are in the minority, and for you to state - as you did - that even pro-remainers believe we will be better off once we've left shows that you have not been listening to the remain arguments at all.
This user liked this post: UpTheBeehole

dsr
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Re: Labour - either very confident or very stupid

Post by dsr » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:11 am

That's not the argument. The point is, the Independent is telling us that if we leave the EU we will continue paying for pensions and stuff until 2064. And my point is, so bleeding what - if we stay in the EU we will continue paying for pensions and stuff until 2064. There are plenty of stories and arguments about the EU, and this isn't one of them.

BennyD
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Re: Labour - either very confident or very stupid

Post by BennyD » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:21 am

There’s no point in worrying about Brexit; if Corbyn gets in we will end up as Putin’s bitch instead of being Brussels’ bitch.

Lancasterclaret
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Re: Labour - either very confident or very stupid

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:06 am

Corbyn will get in if we get a "No deal" Brexit.

Up to you really. Whats is more important to you?

Imploding Turtle
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Re: Labour - either very confident or very stupid

Post by Imploding Turtle » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:18 am

BennyD wrote:There’s no point in worrying about Brexit; if Corbyn gets in we will end up as Putin’s bitch ...
On what are you basing that opinion?

AndrewJB
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Re: Labour - either very confident or very stupid

Post by AndrewJB » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:49 am

BennyD wrote:There’s no point in worrying about Brexit; if Corbyn gets in we will end up as Putin’s bitch instead of being Brussels’ bitch.
The Tories have accepted nearly a million pounds in donations from Russian oligarchs. Do you not find that alarming?

More cuts coming to in work benefits this April, and they've just cut free school meals (to get that one over the line they had to exempt Northern Irish children from the cut to get the support of the DUP). Balancing the books on the backs of the poor, but I think austerity will sink them.

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