Russia Invades

[elwaclaret]

Not intended as a political comment..or any kind of justification for the throwback that is Putin...I hope that him and his tribe of savages have a similar end to Saddam's.

..but I really hope nobody thinks that brainwashing and misleading the proles is purely an Eastern bloc tactic.
Our own masses are thoroughly brainwashed to an equal extent and for remarkably similar reasons..namely to enable our masters to keep firm control over us.

Not like this, not in your lifetime. If you were at Peterloo 1819 or living under the Georges 1-3 you’d have a point.

[JarrowClaret]

very interesting thread
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... -4K1IqkS4Q

I have seen multiple threads on Twitter about Russian vehicles the ones in Ukraine and have been abandoned etc seem to have a number of things wrong which suggest that basic maintenance hasn’t happened for maybe as long as over a year which is madness. The armour that is on trains coming from the east all looks very old the ZSU 23/4s are 1950s tech not sure if they have had a midlife upgrade but that is seriously old stuff and if there aren’t Ukrainian aircraft still in the air why do you need them?

[JarrowClaret]

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... operations

More analysis of the Russian air force

Again, unless there is a war none of us are seeing (and that is impossible in the era of the camera phone) then hard to argue with the conclusion

It seems that Russian Air is only getting shot down by Man Pads at the minute I just don’t get why you don’t take them out of the equation and fly too high above 10,000 feet I think. They don’t seem to be able or willing to use guided munitions which would allow them to fly that high.

So either they don’t care about Aircraft/ pilots we already know they have no feelings for the civilian population of Ukraine or they don’t have enough/ any guided weapons. Crazy

[elwaclaret]

I have seen multiple threads on Twitter about Russian vehicles the ones in Ukraine and have been abandoned etc seem to have a number of things wrong which suggest that basic maintenance hasn’t happened for maybe as long as over a year which is madness. The armour that is on trains coming from the east all looks very old the ZSU 23/4s are 1950s tech not sure if they have had a midlife upgrade but that is seriously old stuff and if there aren’t Ukrainian aircraft still in the air why do you need them?

Russia’s military investment all centred on rockets, military observers suggest… hence the Russian tactic of upping the stakes with missile strikes into city centre to ‘soften up’ opposition rather than deal with thousands of Russian body bags. I hope the Ukrainian resistance is avoiding being trapped in the city limits, because this will, in all likely hood require a General Robert E. Lee / U.S. Grrant approach… its the army Putin needs to take out not Capitol buildings.

[JarrowClaret]

Hmmm interesting thoughts in this thread if it is correct then Putin is winning hands down!

https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/150 ... 57185?s=21

[Firthy]

I still think the best thing NATO can do is provide them with aircraft. Poland and Romania have planes that Ukrainian pilots are capable of flying.

The Russians can't even abide by the ceasefire agreed at Mariupol to allow for a safe corridor. Russia has no intention of letting up, at some point the West has to do more or leave Ukraine to it.

[Vegas Claret]

...from the recent Putin speech

[Vegas Claret]

...

[elwaclaret]

...

As you say. Maybe a bit too amiable to the Russians?

[JarrowClaret]

Not sure if it has already been mentioned but it seems the Ukrainians flooded a reservoir to slow the Russians down in the north:

https://twitter.com/respectisvital/stat ... 44966?s=21

[elwaclaret]

One for you plane enthusiasts…

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 41386?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

I have seen multiple threads on Twitter about Russian vehicles the ones in Ukraine and have been abandoned etc seem to have a number of things wrong which suggest that basic maintenance hasn’t happened for maybe as long as over a year which is madness. The armour that is on trains coming from the east all looks very old the ZSU 23/4s are 1950s tech not sure if they have had a midlife upgrade but that is seriously old stuff and if there aren’t Ukrainian aircraft still in the air why do you need them?

Only use I can think of is that people who don't know what they are go "Oh, look how strong Russia is"

[Lancasterclaret]

ASB news are on twitter

They essentially just retweet what Russia allows them to

Its a good source for destroyed vehicles and stuff though, as long as they are not Russian

[JarrowClaret]

No words needed brave woman although it would seem she has dirt on Putin or someone! Her husband was putins mentor he died suspiciously apparently she has a document stating how he died exactly in a safe abroad.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/stat ... 50434?s=21

Edit: for clarity the brave woman is the Russian senator just in case there was any confusion

[elwaclaret]

Ukranians demonstrate through occupied city.

https://twitter.com/danriversitv/status ... 77604?s=21

[elwaclaret]

More Russians fleeing their regime…

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 16202?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Cannot say I’m deeply shocked if this proves to be accurate

https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/statu ... 76832?s=21

[JarrowClaret]

Highly respected military analyst Mike Martins thoughts, I have to say I am a little surprised at his conclusion but hey who am I to question him:

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/sta ... 47906?s=21

[JarrowClaret]

Cannot say I’m deeply shocked if this proves to be accurate

https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/statu ... 76832?s=21

Isn’t the UK the top of the list when it comes to the amount sanctioned off the Russian Government?

[Lancasterclaret]

Highly respected military analyst Mike Martins thoughts, I have to say I am a little surprised at his conclusion but hey who am I to question him:

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/sta ... 47906?s=21

That is stark

I have to agree that some Russian units are already combat incapable due to morale/equipment issues (200th Motor Rifle Brigade on the Khark'iv front appears to one)

Now if enough of them end up in the wrong point of the line, and the Ukrainians attack that bit, then they might well collapse

But have the Ukrainians got the combat/mobility power to pull that off?

Not sure

[elwaclaret]

Isn’t the UK the top of the list when it comes to the amount sanctioned off the Russian Government?

Quite right, that has more to do with the amount of dirty money previously allowed to swill around London. There are several people more qualified than I talking about Conservatives trying to change existing law permanently, going through the Lords, when what is needed is short term emergency legislation… creating a lot of questions, why?

[elwaclaret]

Quite right, that has more to do with the amount of dirty money previously allowed to swill around London. There are several people more qualified than I talking about Conservatives trying to change existing law permanently, going through the Lords, when what is needed is short term emergency legislation… creating a lot of questions, why?

Just to add its like writing to the FA to see if a Sunday league game can go ahead without a linesman.

[JarrowClaret]

That is stark

I have to agree that some Russian units are already combat incapable due to morale/equipment issues (200th Motor Rifle Brigade on the Khark'iv front appears to one)

Now if enough of them end up in the wrong point of the line, and the Ukrainians attack that bit, then they might well collapse

But have the Ukrainians got the combat/mobility power to pull that off?

They have the manpower and the weapons and his reasoning is sound and his last point about leaving your dead behind is interesting. We only have to remember the extraordinary lengths we went to bring everyone home from Afghan going as far as guys volunteering to get strapped to an Apache to pick bodies up the Russians just seem to be leaving them.

[elwaclaret]

Good point Jarrod / Lancaster.

The reason Russians are leaving their dead is Putin doesn’t want body bags. The whole ‘collective’ mentality of the average Russian, means for the majority a number is enough. We talk of individual freedom, but they have never had it nor have their parents or grandparents - most remain models of Stalin’s Great Leap Forward…

[Spijed]

Was it Putin who ordered a temporary ceasefire to allow people to leave in two cities?

If so, it seems a bit puzzling from someone who has no qualms about committing mass genocide.

[Aclaret]

What about this massive convoy that isn't moving ?
Russians have now been sat, sleeping in trucks & tanks for up to a week, can't imagine they will be getting fed right, morale must be rock bottom.

[BERNIEU]

If so, it seems a bit puzzling from someone who has no qualms about committing mass genocide.

Not really. It seems he flips a coin each morning before breakfast.

[Lancasterclaret]

Good point Jarrod / Lancaster.

The reason Russians are leaving their dead is Putin doesn’t want body bags. The whole ‘collective’ mentality of the average Russian, means for the majority a number is enough. We talk of individual freedom, but they have never had it nor have their parents or grandparents - most remain models of Stalin’s Great Leap Forward…

Big problem with that is that 1000s of Russian parents and relations are going to say

"Where is my son Mr President?"

That isn't going to go down well

[elwaclaret]

Was it Putin who ordered a temporary ceasefire to allow people to leave in two cities?

If so, it seems a bit puzzling from someone who has no qualms about committing mass genocide.

British intelligence are suggesting Putin agreed to the ceasefire because his CinC told him they needed to reorganise.

[Lancasterclaret]

What about this massive convoy that isn't moving ?
Russians have now been sat, sleeping in trucks & tanks for up to a week, can't imagine they will be getting fed right, morale must be rock bottom.

There is a link further up the thread

That convoy will now be completely out of fuel, with most if not all the vehicles with drained batteries as well

Basically with the weather conditions, they are stuck to the road

[elwaclaret]

Big problem with that is that 1000s of Russian parents and relations are going to say

"Where is my son Mr President?"

That isn't going to go down well

Well they’ve been made to sign that thy are not in Ukraine, so they’ll never know where they died. You also have to consider the majority of the army are drawn from remote villages not cities.

[ClaretInLeeds]

Big problem with that is that 1000s of Russian parents and relations are going to say

"Where is my son Mr President?"

That isn't going to go down well

You keep making these statements, but the majority of the Russian population still back Putin and believe that Ukraine are the aggressors.

[Lancasterclaret]

You keep making these statements, but the majority of the Russian population still back Putin and believe that Ukraine are the aggressors.

Yes, but for how long?

I can't stress this enough, but the Russian TV stations are saying one thing, and everything else is saying something else

You can't hide from reality in the age of the camera phone and world wide communications

[elwaclaret]

You keep making these statements, but the majority of the Russian population still back Putin and believe that Ukraine are the aggressors.

That is changing quickly in the cities - some fantastic scenes today around St. Petersburg, so big there was a noticeable absence of State presence. But yes the vast majority will take longer to fully realise, such is their trust of the state.

[ClaretInLeeds]

Yes, but for how long?

I can't stress this enough, but the Russian TV stations are saying one thing, and everything else is saying something else

You can't hide from reality in the age of the camera phone and world wide communications

But the majority of Russians are brainwashed and don’t want to hear a bad word about Putin. That’s the difference. Want.

[Spiral]

I read somewhere that it's suspected they're cremating dead soldiers before returning them home. Mobile crematoriums were photographed a day or so into the invasion. I suspect it's because Russia doesn't want the optics that come with coffins being loaded off transport vehicles. No amount of state propaganda can make you rationalise losing a son, and in their anger those bereaved families will begin to ask why their bodies were not repatriated. I'm making a lot of assumptions about the state of Russia's repatriation operation, but there crematoriums were seen, and you can't not be suspicious as to why why anyone would bring one to an invasion. This is what's giving me a gut feeling that the tweed above predicting military collapse and a political end for Putin seems totally plausible.

Economic stability is the biggest reason for Putin's support in Russia and thanks to the sanctions in place that trust will be completely evaporated within weeks of not days. If we sanction Russian oil and gas he's toast. It'll hurt a lot of Europeans, but it might be a price worth paying to rid us all not only of him, but also the pan-Slav ideology & foreign policy doctrine serving it. Keep Kyiv in Ukrainian control by hook or by crook, and squeeze so hard economically that Russia becomes insolvent. Military coup against him, parliamentarian enablers arrested, interim govt etc. Not easy, not clean, not at all guaranteed that it'll bear any fruit, but there have been equally powerful people all though history who have met unceremonious downfalls where weeks and months prior it seemed an impossible thing to think. Lots of wishful thinking on my part, but I can only see a humiliating military defeat for the Russians. I absolutely cannot see a victory for him in Ukraine, even if he somehow manages to cling on to power in Russia.

[IanMcL]

Was it Putin who ordered a temporary ceasefire to allow people to leave in two cities?

If so, it seems a bit puzzling from someone who has no qualms about committing mass genocide.

Except the ceasefire didn't happen!

[Lancasterclaret]

But the majority of Russians are brainwashed and don’t want to hear a bad word about Putin. That’s the difference. Want.

I'd agree with that as well, but there is a limit to just how far that can go when faced with reality

By that reality, I mean walking down the town street and wondering why all the shops are closed, wondering why everything suddenly costs a lot more, wondering why Mishka next door hasn't heard from her son for a while, which is so unlike him etc etc etc

[elwaclaret]

This is what the West is up against… there is fake news, then there is cgi.

https://twitter.com/alexkhrebet/status/ ... 69799?s=21

[tiger76]

That is changing quickly in the cities - some fantastic scenes today around St. Petersburg, so big there was a noticeable absence of State presence. But yes the vast majority will take longer to fully realise, such is their trust of the state.

I guess that's what decades of indoctrination does to a population, and it seems to be a generational divide, where the older demographic toe the party line, but the younger age groups, who no doubt have more access to a variety of news sources are more aware of what's really happening, and aren't as easy to suppress.

Easy for us to sit here in the west, or other democracies and criticise, but fair does to those protestors prepared to put their heads above the parapet in Russia, and if the numbers continue to grow it will become a whole lot harder for the authorities to continually silence the demonstrations, although I've no doubt they will certainly try.

[ClaretInLeeds]

I'd agree with that as well, but there is a limit to just how far that can go when faced with reality

By that reality, I mean walking down the town street and wondering why all the shops are closed, wondering why everything suddenly costs a lot more, wondering why Mishka next door hasn't heard from her son for a while, which is so unlike him etc etc etc

But when faced with the truth, these people are denying that Putin would do this - even when given evidence. The Russian public don’t believe he is capable of killing what the Russian public describe as “their own people” of Ukraine.

That just does not bode well at all.

[Lancasterclaret]

But when faced with the truth, these people are denying that Putin would do this - even when given evidence. The Russian public don’t believe he is capable of killing what the Russian public describe as “their own people” of Ukraine.

That just does not bode well at all.

There will be something that can be compromised on if both sides are willing

Only one I can think of that has any chance is that Russia gets the Crimea and the two Eastern Provinces (ie stuff it invaded in 2014) but Ukraine is allowed to join NATO and the EU

As that is a complete and utter strategic defeat for Russia, it will only fly if he can point to the occupation of the land, but who is going to trust Putin to stick to his word now?

Its a real mess

[Cheshireclaret]

This is Russia, not North Korea. There will be a hardline (probable majority) of the public that choose to believe he is the leader absolute and that everything they are fed is true but the demonstrations we are seeing; the dedication of the brave journalists I hear on the news channels; the likely communication back to families from western cities where rational media is accessible; the hard reality of how the sanctions stop you getting bread, water, power, fuel, money, anything all with a backdrop of young men going on manoeuvres and never being seen again.

It’s hard to understand how the regime works in a country like Russia but there are a LOT of well-educated, eyes wide open people in that country and whilst Putin might convince the old guard that life was so much better when they were the USSR, that will soon start to crumble when their fridges are empty, their kid’s schools are shut and the lights aren’t working.

[Spiral]

But when faced with the truth, these people are denying that Putin would do this - even when given evidence. The Russian public don’t believe he is capable of killing what the Russian public describe as “their own people” of Ukraine.

That just does not bode well at all.

When we talk of his popular support there's an underlying implication in the conversation along the lines, 'so what would it take for the people to rise up against him?' and on that point I agree with you for the most part. I think owing to their political environment (not their character as human beings) the Russians are at this point, by and large, too lethargic for a popular uprising. However, the more pressure Putin feels the more paranoid he becomes. The more paranoid he becomes the more he alienates those around him whom he needs to stay in power. The people won't revolt, and he certainly knows that better than us, but he'll still feel the pressure of having to deal with the economic situation, forcing him to take more risks, opening him up to greater blunders which might further alienate his 'court', and no king can survive without his court.

[JarrowClaret]

Quite right, that has more to do with the amount of dirty money previously allowed to swill around London. There are several people more qualified than I talking about Conservatives trying to change existing law permanently, going through the Lords, when what is needed is short term emergency legislation… creating a lot of questions, why?

I don’t get the Oligarch thing if honest I am willing to be taught though although I am aware of the Russian money in London. That said we are sanctioning the Russian Government and we must be doing something right if we are being singled out for threats from Putin.

[Lancasterclaret]

Renewed push from the US for Ukraine to get fighter jets from Poland

Be interesting to see if this come to anything

[elwaclaret]

I don’t get the Oligarch thing if honest I am willing to be taught though although I am aware of the Russian money in London. That said we are sanctioning the Russian Government and we must be doing something right if we are being singled out for threats from Putin.

I don’t go heavily in for that sort of thing, the invariably links from Historians tbh. We are the biggest disappointment of all for Putin - he saw the nation in meltdown, demonstrations while not covered are every week in London, the shambles over Afghanistan and with a Prime Minister whose party is soaking up Russian money, and a PM holding up despite scandal after scandal, London stock market and still the beating heart of self interest and greed…. He was winning, hands down - in two weeks he’s blown it spectacularly.

…and merely speculative but it ll seems to have come from the fall out from the Newcastle takeover.

[Lowbankclaret]

Yes, but for how long?

I can't stress this enough, but the Russian TV stations are saying one thing, and everything else is saying something else

You can't hide from reality in the age of the camera phone and world wide communications

From what I have read, in Russia, all TV stations have been shut down. As has Facebook and Twitter .

The new law brought in today would also mean sharing so called false news, ie civilian shelling would result in a 15 year jail penalty.

Not a good idea to be in a Russian jail.

[elwaclaret]

I don’t get the Oligarch thing if honest I am willing to be taught though although I am aware of the Russian money in London. That said we are sanctioning the Russian Government and we must be doing something right if we are being singled out for threats from Putin.

It’s not hard to get a threat from the Kremlin… I’ve been logged for a visit by the Kremlin Humanitarian representatives, apparently. I wrote back “it must be a bloody long list if I’ve made it.” Half hoping I get a mention in Putin’s next rant.

[Cheshireclaret]

Renewed push from the US for Ukraine to get fighter jets from Poland

Be interesting to see if this come to anything

The obvious point for Poland to make is that this is a great suggestion aside from the fact that :-

1. We’re already taking in more refugees than we can handle and slowly but surely likely to be drawn into the war politically

2. You’re over there Mr Biden. We’re next door but one. If we provide these planes that makes us next on the list (if we’re not already).

3. Are you going to buy them off us and lend them to Ukraine? Who arms them? How do we get repeat munitions to them?

It drags Poland fair square into it and is NATO flexing its’ muscles by proxy. I can’t see Poland doing that.