Boris

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:08 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:As a percentage of trade we do send more to europe than they do to us. BUT as to the amount we trade between each other, they still export more to us, than we do to them. The deficit is in our favour.
They could day we wont trade with you, but this is the real world. Some of those countries in Europe, in fact none of them, can afford to lose that trade. The german and french car industries would be scuppered. We can always do a private deal with Korea or Japan to import their cars. I'm not saying that is what will happen, just an example of what could happen if either side decided to be stubborn.
The EU is propped up by Germany, France and us. If we leave with no deal , and take our 39 billion with us, those 2 countries have to fill the hole. They cant afford it, and their voters would have a fit if they even tried.
It is a mess, but people who pretend we are jumping off a cliff, or that the EU could just absorb the loss of trade and money are either lying or bullshitting.

Depending whose figures you use our exports to the EU are 45%-50% of our total exports. In comparison Germany's exports to the UK are ~ 7% of their exports and France is similar, even for Ireland it's only 12%. You're right that the EU exports a lot to us but if that ceased the pain would be spread across a lot of countries across a GDP something like 7 or 8 times larger.

I don't deny that it would be very damaging to them but it would be much more damaging to the UK and certainly wouldn't put us in a position of strength for negotiating a better deal than we have at the moment.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:10 pm

aggi wrote:And how did those people in the European Parliament get the job?

This is where their logic falls down. They claim to want to withdraw from the EU because it's not democratic, yet we vote for our representatives for the EU parliament in a way that's far more democratic than how we vote for MPs. And we vote for those people so that they will elect an EU president by means of a majority of our representatives. You don't even need a majority of your own constituency in the UK to be elected prime minister. Boris Johnson could get elected with 25% of his constituents voting for him, and 25% of the voters nationally voting for Tories. Yet somehow that's more democratic than how the EU do things. It's complete bullshit.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:13 pm

And the thing that's most dumb about it, is i'm pretty sure Damo and his fellow Brexiters know it's bullshit. It's about repetition. Repeat the lie over and over and over until people start thinking it's the truth.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:13 pm

Spijed wrote:How can he unite the people when he's hated in Scotland?

Clearly he's not popular in Glasgow

Scottish independence campaigners gathered in Glasgow to protest against the appointment of Boris Johnson as prime minister.

People carried Saltire flags and held signs saying: "Boris No! Independence Yes!"

Gary Kelly, an organiser from the pro-independence group All Under One Banner, said: "We knew it was going to be a prime minister Scotland wouldn't want."

Former Scottish politician Tommy Sheridan spoke to the crowd and criticised Mr Johnson's election by "less than 0.5% of the registered voters in the UK".

"The overwhelming majority of people here today are here because they're angry. They're angry that they weren't asked whether Boris Johnson should become the next prime minister."

Rumours that the Scottish Conservatives will split from the main party,can't see it myself but we live in turbulent political times.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:25 pm

aggi wrote:And how did those people in the European Parliament get the job?

They were elected.
I didnt vote in the European elections, but I'd like to bet there was nothing on the form that stipulated your vote only counted if they promised to elect the people you wanted at the top table?

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:25 pm

tiger76 wrote:Clearly he's not popular in Glasgow

Scottish independence campaigners gathered in Glasgow to protest against the appointment of Boris Johnson as prime minister.

People carried Saltire flags and held signs saying: "Boris No! Independence Yes!"

Gary Kelly, an organiser from the pro-independence group All Under One Banner, said: "We knew it was going to be a prime minister Scotland wouldn't want."

Former Scottish politician Tommy Sheridan spoke to the crowd and criticised Mr Johnson's election by "less than 0.5% of the registered voters in the UK".

"The overwhelming majority of people here today are here because they're angry. They're angry that they weren't asked whether Boris Johnson should become the next prime minister."

Rumours that the Scottish Conservatives will split from the main party,can't see it myself but we live in turbulent political times.

I think it's fair to say that when it comes to Scotland Boris is a dead man walking. As you say, unless the Scottish Conservatives split they will cease to exist in Scotland as a political force as he is hated so much up there!

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/po ... if-he-isnt" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:28 pm

Spijed wrote:I think it's fair to say that when it comes to Scotland Boris is a dead man walking. As you say, unless the Scottish Conservatives split they will cease to exist in Scotland as a political force as he is hated so much up there!

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/po ... if-he-isnt" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The problem is that if Scotland ditch the UK then there's no reason to think Boris will lose his first election. Labour can't win without Scotland either helping them win or providing enough SNP representatives for a coalition. And i think Scotland is headed towards independence, because it's got to be clear by now that Scotland is never going to be reliably represented in Westminster.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:32 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:As a percentage of trade we do send more to europe than they do to us. BUT as to the amount we trade between each other, they still export more to us, than we do to them. The deficit is in our favour.
They could day we wont trade with you, but this is the real world. Some of those countries in Europe, in fact none of them, can afford to lose that trade. The german and french car industries would be scuppered. We can always do a private deal with Korea or Japan to import their cars. I'm not saying that is what will happen, just an example of what could happen if either side decided to be stubborn.
The EU is propped up by Germany, France and us. If we leave with no deal , and take our 39 billion with us, those 2 countries have to fill the hole. They cant afford it, and their voters would have a fit if they even tried.
It is a mess, but people who pretend we are jumping off a cliff, or that the EU could just absorb the loss of trade and money are either lying or bullshitting.

What you continually do is ignore the ill effects of a no deal exit for the average U.K. household, the sectors in which we already enjoy high levels of co-operation (55 areas), and our economy in general. Yes of course EU countries will be hit too, but what kind of pecuniary advantage do you think we’ll get out of leaving the threat of it on the table (and therefore having to go through the unnecessary expense of preparing for it)? What do you think we might ‘gain’ if the EU blinks first that will be worth the vast expense of preparing for a no deal, not to mention the ill will we will create by forcing EU countries to do the same? A tweak to the backstop? And what if they don’t blink, and we actually do crash out? Will you console yourself as you wait in a queue by the standpipe for your inadequate ration of water that we’ve finally taken back control, and kick your heels in the air at our independence? What will you say to people who were too poor to prepare and suffer? Or how would you feel about more criminals coming into the U.K. because we no longer share criminal intelligence as efficiently (or at all)?

If we take no deal off the table, we avoid all of this. At the end I don’t think it’ll matter, because our MPs are too conscientious to allow it to happen, but I think you’re being far too blasé about the consequences.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:35 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:This is where their logic falls down. They claim to want to withdraw from the EU because it's not democratic, yet we vote for our representatives for the EU parliament in a way that's far more democratic than how we vote for MPs. And we vote for those people so that they will elect an EU president by means of a majority of our representatives. You don't even need a majority of your own constituency in the UK to be elected prime minister. Boris Johnson could get elected with 25% of his constituents voting for him, and 25% of the voters nationally voting for Tories. Yet somehow that's more democratic than how the EU do things. It's complete bullshit.

I've stated plenty of times that I dont need several layers of elected people, deciding what i can and cannot do.
Whether the EU is more or less democratic is irrelevant. I want the people who make the big decisions in my world to be accountable for them.
I dont want to have to vote for someone, who will then vote for someone on my behalf, and then trust that person to make the decisions that the electorate asks them to make.
You only have to look at certain MP's, who completely ignore the wishes of the people (re brexit) who they are supposed to serve to see that multiple layers of governance is a bad idea. That's my view anyway. Swear and get angry at that as much as you like

dpinsussex · Post by **dpinsussex** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:35 pm

Good luck Boris in your new job.

Think you might need it to bring the whole bickering parliament together over such a devisive subject as brexit

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:41 pm

Damo wrote:I've stated plenty of times that I dont need several layers of elected people, deciding what i can and cannot do.
Whether the EU is more or less democratic is irrelevant. I want the people who make the big decisions in my world to be accountable for them.
I dont want to have to vote for someone, who will then vote for someone on my behalf, and then trust that person to make the decisions that the electorate asks them to make.
You only have to look at certain MP's, who completely ignore the wishes of the people (re brexit) who they are supposed to serve to see that multiple layers of governance is a bad idea. That's my view anyway. Swear and get angry at that as much as you like

Which big decisions in your world that the EU make are you talking about specifically?

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:50 pm

Damo wrote:I've stated plenty of times that I dont need several layers of elected people, deciding what i can and cannot do.
Whether the EU is more or less democratic is irrelevant. I want the people who make the big decisions in my world to be accountable for them.
I dont want to have to vote for someone, who will then vote for someone on my behalf, and then trust that person to make the decisions that the electorate asks them to make.
You only have to look at certain MP's, who completely ignore the wishes of the people (re brexit) who they are supposed to serve to see that multiple layers of governance is a bad idea. That's my view anyway. Swear and get angry at that as much as you like

I'd take your complain more seriously if you weren't so blatantly anti-EU about it all. I don't remember seeing you joining in when i'd post threads and posts complaining about FPTP and how unrepresentative our democracy is. The only time you seem to care about it is when the EU's involved.

Well, tough ****. You voted for your MEPs, and no doubt you voted for the Brexit Party. We'll, those MEPs voted against the new European commission president, and they lost. Tough ****. Get over it. Isn't that what you lot like to say?

It's not like they have any real powers beyond picking commissioners and set the direction of parliament. Laws still need to be voted on by the representatives we elect.

This is a nonsense issue that you only care about because you're running out of real things to whine about when it comes to the EU. All your reasons for voting leave have been debunked so you're clinging to this worthless claim that isn't not democratic enough despite it being more democratic and more representative than the UK's ****** up version of democracy.

ClaretAL · Post by **ClaretAL** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:54 pm

tiger76 wrote:Clearly he's not popular in Glasgow

Scottish independence campaigners gathered in Glasgow to protest against the appointment of Boris Johnson as prime minister.

People carried Saltire flags and held signs saying: "Boris No! Independence Yes!"

Gary Kelly, an organiser from the pro-independence group All Under One Banner, said: "We knew it was going to be a prime minister Scotland wouldn't want."

Former Scottish politician Tommy Sheridan spoke to the crowd and criticised Mr Johnson's election by "less than 0.5% of the registered voters in the UK".

"The overwhelming majority of people here today are here because they're angry. They're angry that they weren't asked whether Boris Johnson should become the next prime minister."

Rumours that the Scottish Conservatives will split from the main party,can't see it myself but we live in turbulent political times.

In the Scottish referendum they voted to stay a part of the UK, so im not sure where the consensus from mini Crankie cones from that they didn't vote for a brexit? the fact they decided to be goverened by UK rules says they did?

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:59 pm

Before the 2015 election Cameron tweeted that the British people faced a choice between chaos under Labour, or a strong and steady hand under him. Osborne boasted of his “long term economic plan” - and where are they now?

In 2017 May introduced the famous “strong and stable leadership” - and we got?

Given he employs the same election guru, I can only imagine that in the next general election it’ll be something similar, or perhaps just the negative: “you don’t want a Marxist terrorist loving anti-Semite in number 10!!! (so vote for me instead”

And it’s all bullshit. Cameron in 2010: “No top down changes to the NHS” and without time to blush with shame, off went Lansley with his wrecking ball. IDS making dying people look for work, the explosion of in work poverty, and privatisations to rival Thatcher. People say Corbyn’s Labour will be too radical, but we’ve had ten years of extreme Tory radicalism, so if he just reverses some of their excesses that won’t be radical at all.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:03 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:I'd take your complain more seriously if you weren't so blatantly anti-EU about it all. I don't remember seeing you joining in when i'd post threads and posts complaining about FPTP and how unrepresentative our democracy is. The only time you seem to care about it is when the EU's involved.

Well, tough ****. You voted for your MEPs, and no doubt you voted for the Brexit Party. We'll, those MEPs voted against the new European commission president, and they lost. Tough ****. Get over it. Isn't that what you lot like to say?

It's not like they have any real powers beyond picking commissioners and set the direction of parliament. Laws still need to be voted on by the representatives we elect.

This is a nonsense issue that you only care about because you're running out of real things to whine about when it comes to the EU. All your reasons for voting leave have been debunked so you're clinging to this worthless claim that isn't not democratic enough despite it being more democratic and more representative than the UK's ****** up version of democracy.

I dont care how seriously you take my complaints pal.
I dont care what your opinion is of me, and you are welcome to insinuate I did one thing or the other.
Hopefully you are as rational and reasoned the next time I tell you what I think of you and your stance on all the matters you opine on. And especially, your conspicuous expression of moral values

Edit to say, I'm convinced also, that your problem with FPTP stems from what Ringo aluded to earlier, regarding voting never seeming to go the way you personally want it to

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:18 pm

tiger76 wrote:Clearly he's not popular in Glasgow

Scottish independence campaigners gathered in Glasgow to protest against the appointment of Boris Johnson as prime minister.

People carried Saltire flags and held signs saying: "Boris No! Independence Yes!"

Gary Kelly, an organiser from the pro-independence group All Under One Banner, said: "We knew it was going to be a prime minister Scotland wouldn't want."

Former Scottish politician Tommy Sheridan spoke to the crowd and criticised Mr Johnson's election by "less than 0.5% of the registered voters in the UK".

"The overwhelming majority of people here today are here because they're angry. They're angry that they weren't asked whether Boris Johnson should become the next prime minister."

They don't actually believe those comments. At least, when Gordon Brown became PM under the same circumstances, they weren't on the streets protesting. They don't like Boris, but instead of coming out and saying that's what it's about, they're inventing excuses to say why they think he shouldn't be PM.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:22 pm

aggi wrote:But given we'd be suffering far more than the EU looking at how much of our exports are to the EU compared to how many EU exports (or even individual countries excepting possibly Ireland) are to the UK it seems we'd be negotiating from an even weaker position.

In theory we could still trade under WTO legislation but that wouldn't include a lot of stuff such as elements of agriculture, financial services, etc

Just reading the No Deal preparations I'm not sure how well we'd do in this "who will blink first" game:

That comment is insanity. The current infrastructure is perfectly adequate to get essential supplies into the country, and it still will be after Brexit. The infrastructure will not change; all that will change is the paperwork.

And what this tweet is saying is that if we need essential products like water purifiers, and the paperwork can't be filled in on time, the government will have to choose between (i) saying sod the paperwork, let's get the goods in; or (ii) saying let the people die, paperwork is more important.

And this tweet says they will choose option 2. Well, they're wrong.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:24 pm

Damo wrote:I dont care how seriously you take my complaints pal.
I dont care what your opinion is of me, and you are welcome to insinuate I did one thing or the other.
Hopefully you are as rational and reasoned the next time I tell you what I think of you and your stance on all the matters you opine on. And especially, your conspicuous expression of moral values

Edit to say, I'm convinced also, that your problem with FPTP stems from what Ringo aluded to earlier, regarding voting never seeming to go the way you personally want it to

Then you are being convinced only by your own biases since ringos list is almost completely false, as i demonstrated and you clearly ignored because it doesn't fit your bias.

Edit: Hilariously (to me) the reason i voted Lib Dem in 2010 was because they supported Proportional Representation (other things to, but that was the most important to me). And when did Ringo's list start? 2010. So... that kinda pisses on your biased little cornflakes somewhat, doesn't it?

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:27 pm

ClaretAL wrote:In the Scottish referendum they voted to stay a part of the UK, so im not sure where the consensus from mini Crankie cones from that they didn't vote for a brexit? the fact they decided to be goverened by UK rules says they did?

That post displays a Johnsonesque level of dishonesty.
Sturgeon's claim that Scotland did not vote for brexit is based quite simply on how the Scots voted, - (i.e. by a large majority to remain in the EU).
Additionally of course, the Scots were promised in the Independence Ref. that if they voted to remain in the UK then they were voting to remain in the EU, so actually they've voted twice to remain in the EU.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:41 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:That post displays a Johnsonesque level of dishonesty.
Sturgeon's claim that Scotland did not vote for brexit is based quite simply on how the Scots voted, - (i.e. by a large majority to remain in the EU).
Additionally of course, the Scots were promised in the Independence Ref. that if they voted to remain in the UK then they were voting to remain in the EU, so actually they've voted twice to remain in the EU.

The last paragraph is a red herring. You surely aren't suggesting that if the Scots had voted for independence from the UK, they would also have been voting to leave the EU? I think you'll find both options, UK or non-UK, at that time involved staying in the EU.

Valid point about the Scottish votes in the Brexit referendum, though.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:41 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:The problem is that if Scotland ditch the UK then there's no reason to think Boris will lose his first election. Labour can't win without Scotland either helping them win or providing enough SNP representatives for a coalition. And i think Scotland is headed towards independence, because it's got to be clear by now that Scotland is never going to be reliably represented in Westminster.

Scotland will leave the UK at some point, that's the primary aim of the SNP, Brexit is just a convenient excuse.
However, they won't be fully independent for long because the SNP is desperate to get Scotland into the EU.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:42 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:Scotland will leave the UK at some point, that's the primary aim of the SNP, Brexit is just a convenient excuse.
However, they won't be fully independent for long because the SNP is desperate to get Scotland into the EU.

Presumably with all the related paraphernalia, hard border with England, trade barriers with England, etc.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:46 pm

Damo wrote:They were elected.
I didnt vote in the European elections, but I'd like to bet there was nothing on the form that stipulated your vote only counted if they promised to elect the people you wanted at the top table?

That's how a representative democracy works though. It's not like in the UK we get a say on everything, we elect a representative and they make the decisions for the next 5 years (and that can even extend to selecting a PM at times).

Your second argument, that you want to get rid of additional layers of democracy, is totally different and reasonable enough (although most people do struggle to name half a dozen EU laws that actually impact on their life). Obviously you can question whether the UK is then the right size to represent you, would an English or Lancashire government be better.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:49 pm

dsr wrote:Presumably with all the related paraphernalia, hard border with England, trade barriers with England, etc.

Well as an independent country they'd have to use WTO rules.
The hard border wouldn't be needed until they joined the EU, because it's an EU requirement in all fairness, and joining the EU could take them a number of years.

Bfcboyo · Post by **Bfcboyo** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:49 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:(i)I swear when i have too little respect for either the person, or the post, i'm replying to. For someone like you you'll find I waste zero time using more respectful language. Maybe you should just "believe" that i'll gain respect for you so that you don't get upset by my asterisks in future.

(ii) I don't firmly believe that the experts are always right. That's another of your bullshit lies that you can't help yourself from spreading because you are a fundamentally dishonest person. This is why i have no respect for you. Not because you disagree with me so much. I don't care about that. The reason you get no respect from em is because you're always so full of ****. You just lie so ******* much. Everything you post is in bad faith. I say that i believe the overwhelming majority of experts and any layman who doesn't is a moron, and you pretend to yourself and others that that means i believe "the experts are always right".

Here you go, i'll set you a little task and we'll see if you're capable of pulling it off with any honesty whatsoever. If you fail you will be torn in half by the giant veal calves I rescued tied to your testicles. You claim that the experts have already been proven wrong about Brexit. Obviously you're talking about being proven fundamentally wrong because surely not even you would consider a point of imprecision in a volatile scientific field like economics to, so why don't you explain to me just *how* the overwhelming majority of experts have been proven wrong already by Brexit. I wait with bated breath for your response.if your response is not to my liking two udders will appear from each side of the room enticing the calves to tear your tackle in two

'Here you go, i'll set you a little task'
Very SAW moviesesque

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:53 pm

Bfcboyo wrote:'Here you go, i'll set you a little task'
Very SAW moviesesque

I thought perhaps you were posting that in response to turtle's desperate claim [post 249] that he isn't insulting and doesn't swear.

Bfcboyo · Post by **Bfcboyo** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:55 pm

tiger76 wrote:Clearly he's not popular in Glasgow

Scottish independence campaigners gathered in Glasgow to protest against the appointment of Boris Johnson as prime minister.

People carried Saltire flags and held signs saying: "Boris No! Independence Yes!"

Gary Kelly, an organiser from the pro-independence group All Under One Banner, said: "We knew it was going to be a prime minister Scotland wouldn't want."

Former Scottish politician Tommy Sheridan spoke to the crowd and criticised Mr Johnson's election by "less than 0.5% of the registered voters in the UK".

"The overwhelming majority of people here today are here because they're angry. They're angry that they weren't asked whether Boris Johnson should become the next prime minister."

Rumours that the Scottish Conservatives will split from the main party,can't see it myself but we live in turbulent political times.

Your reading into this too much.
That is a standard benifits queue up there in Glasgae.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:59 pm

dsr wrote:The last paragraph is a red herring. You surely aren't suggesting that if the Scots had voted for independence from the UK, they would also have been voting to leave the EU? I think you'll find both options, UK or non-UK, at that time involved staying in the EU.

Valid point about the Scottish votes in the Brexit referendum, though.

I wasn't suggesting that at all. I was simply reiterating what Cameron etc told them as they were casting their independence votes. They were told that only by voting to remain part of the UK could they retain their EU membership, and that if they left the UK they would de facto leave the EU and would have to apply to join / accept the Euro etc, so as I said they actually voted twice to remain in the EU.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:02 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:Well as an independent country they'd have to use WTO rules.
The hard border wouldn't be needed until they joined the EU, because it's an EU requirement in all fairness, and joining the EU could take them a number of years.

I'm not an expert, but how could they operate under WTO terms without a hard border?

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:04 pm

Move over Tommy, it's Boris Johnson Tuesday.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:05 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:I'm not an expert, but how could they operate under WTO terms without a hard border?

It would never come to that. A deal would be struck before Scotland left the U.K. and things would largely remain the same.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:07 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:I'm not an expert, but how could they operate under WTO terms without a hard border?

Dunno, the EU is the one demanding a hard border, if we aren't in the EU and Scotland go it alone, then initially they won't be in the EU either so if we don't want a hard border then we don't have to knock one up until they joined the EU.

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/201 ... r-borders/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Interesting read about hard borders and a brief on some WTO rules.
Basically they don't require us to have a hard border.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:11 pm

Bfcboyo wrote:Your reading into this too much.
That is a standard benifits queue up there in Glasgae.

Us leaving the EU makes it more likely for Scotland to leave the UK. It might be worse for everyone, but that's how it is.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:13 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:Scotland will leave the UK at some point, that's the primary aim of the SNP, Brexit is just a convenient excuse.
However, they won't be fully independent for long because the SNP is desperate to get Scotland into the EU.

It's not just a convenient excuse. It's a campaign promise that if Scotland is taken out of the EU against its will then the SNP will call a referendum on independence. I don't know why you people like to accuse them of some kind of skulduggery here because they have been completely open about it.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:13 pm

Let's have a look at some possible outcomes from the Johnson Premiership: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng ... -scenarios" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bfcboyo · Post by **Bfcboyo** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:20 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Us leaving the EU makes it more likely for Scotland to leave the UK. It might be worse for everyone, but that's how it is.

Daint worry boot me sonny. I have a foot on both sides the border. If things go te shat I'm declaring my right to Scottish citizenship.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:22 pm

martin_p wrote:It would never come to that. A deal would be struck before Scotland left the U.K. and things would largely remain the same.

You would hope, but given the opinions of people on here, the Scots might best be served by holding out for a no deal exit from the UK - thereby holding the 'nuclear' button to make sure the UK blinked first because although most Scottish produce goes to the rest of the UK, still lots of UK produce goes to Scotland, so even though we're bigger then them we might decide in the face of their 'Bannockburn Spirit' that we must give way on important issues (or maybe not. We might instead decide to go toe to toe with them an impoverish everyone).

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:24 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:It's not just a convenient excuse. It's a campaign promise that if Scotland is taken out of the EU against its will then the SNP will call a referendum on independence. I don't know why you people like to accuse them of some kind of skulduggery here because they have been completely open about it.

They had one referendum, they were always going to have another.
The SNP doesn't want Scotland to be part of the UK, we all know that.
Brexit is the perfect excuse to hold another one and then to throw themselves back at the feet of the EU.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:29 pm

Bfcboyo wrote:Daint worry boot me sonny. I have a foot on both sides the border. If things go te shat I'm declaring my right to Scottish citizenship.

"I'm alright Jack!"

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:33 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:The problem is that if Scotland ditch the UK then there's no reason to think Boris will lose his first election. Labour can't win without Scotland either helping them win or providing enough SNP representatives for a coalition. And i think Scotland is headed towards independence, because it's got to be clear by now that Scotland is never going to be reliably represented in Westminster.

I'm not a betting man,but there must be a reasonable chance of the next UK GE happening before Indy Ref 2,if Labour are relying on picking up seats North of the border,i fear they're in for disappointment,if anything the SNP are the party best placed to make gains,now of course the SNP will make a 2nd Indy Ref a prerequisite of any form of coalition,and Corbyn has dropped subtle hints that he'd be more amenable then any Tory PM to this section 30 request.

What happens in the event of Scottish independence is more nuanced,the SNP could suffer the same fate as UKIP after the brexit vote,as their electoral base would have had it's wishes fulfilled,certainly there would be a realignment of traditional party lines,the Conservatives wouldn't be able to play the Unionist card any longer,but on the other hand they wouldn't be tied to London,and Ruth Davidson has shown that one-nation conservatism can win votes in Scotland.

Labour surely can't go any lower in Scottish vote-share then the 9% of the European Elections,and the LibDems will always have a base of 10% or so.

With the AV system that's used in Holyrood elections,coalition politics is inevitable at least in the short term.

What all the above means for England,and to a lesser extent Wales is unclear,but a more right Conservative party is much more likely with the break up of the union.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:47 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:It's not just a convenient excuse. It's a campaign promise that if Scotland is taken out of the EU against its will then the SNP will call a referendum on independence. I don't know why you people like to accuse them of some kind of skulduggery here because they have been completely open about it.

You can accuse the SNP of many things,but on this point they were very clear.

Taken from their 2016 Holyrood manifesto word for word.

Independence and the constitution
The SNP stresses that independence will only be achieved when the majority of people in Scotland want it to happen.

(It says the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is "clear and sustained evidence" that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people - or if there is a "significant and material" change in circumstances, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will.)

I don't see how they could be any clearer,in the event of the UK voting for brexit,and Scotland firmly rejecting brexit,they reserve the right to call another referendum.

And since then the Scottish Parliament has voted for such a measure to be enacted,so you can hardly say it's undemocratic.

Now legally the UK government could deny them this right,but that would be foolhardy,and if any PM did just that it would push people who are on the fence (like me) towards the yes camp,will Boris have the bottle to risk the precious Union.we'll have to wait and see.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:50 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:Dunno, the EU is the one demanding a hard border, if we aren't in the EU and Scotland go it alone, then initially they won't be in the EU either so if we don't want a hard border then we don't have to knock one up until they joined the EU.

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/201 ... r-borders/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Interesting read about hard borders and a brief on some WTO rules.
Basically they don't require us to have a hard border.

It's not just the EU that requires one. As the article you've linked says, the UK would lay itself open to complaints from other nations if we gave the EU special treatment by not having border checks. The requirement isn't that we have a hard border, it's that we treat everyone the same.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:58 pm

dsr wrote:That comment is insanity. The current infrastructure is perfectly adequate to get essential supplies into the country, and it still will be after Brexit. The infrastructure will not change; all that will change is the paperwork.

And what this tweet is saying is that if we need essential products like water purifiers, and the paperwork can't be filled in on time, the government will have to choose between (i) saying sod the paperwork, let's get the goods in; or (ii) saying let the people die, paperwork is more important.

And this tweet says they will choose option 2. Well, they're wrong.

The comment was lifted from the Times. How reliable those whitehall sources are, your guess is as good as mine but I'd be surprised if the Times had totally made it up.

I guess our government isn't the only one making this decision, although I would agree that the scenario seems extreme. If the solution was as simple as you're suggesting though I imagine that the millions of pounds and thousands of man-hours wouldn't have been devoted to finding a solution.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:59 pm

Rick_Muller wrote:I leave the page for half a day and then I come back to this...

DickWaving.gif

Or another way of looking at it , would be that, it actually took you longer than you thought it would, to find that video clip you'd been looking at which you genuinely believed was appropriate and funny.....

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:03 am

aggi wrote:The comment was lifted from the Times. How reliable those whitehall sources are, your guess is as good as mine but I'd be surprised if the Times had totally made it up.

I guess our government isn't the only one making this decision, although I would agree that the scenario seems extreme. If the solution was as simple as you're suggesting though I imagine that the millions of pounds and thousands of man-hours wouldn't have been devoted to finding a solution.

I'm not saying the scenario might not cost billions for lost tariffs and so on, though I doubt it. But that would be a valid reason for spending the man-hours and money.

I'm just saying that the scenario won't stop vital supplies.

Right_winger · Post by **Right_winger** » Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:05 am

Trump and Boris excellent. A duo which winds up the gurning snowflakes no end.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:50 am

tiger76 wrote:I'm not a betting man,but there must be a reasonable chance of the next UK GE happening before Indy Ref 2,if Labour are relying on picking up seats North of the border,i fear they're in for disappointment,if anything the SNP are the party best placed to make gains,now of course the SNP will make a 2nd Indy Ref a prerequisite of any form of coalition,and Corbyn has dropped subtle hints that he'd be more amenable then any Tory PM to this section 30 request.

What happens in the event of Scottish independence is more nuanced,the SNP could suffer the same fate as UKIP after the brexit vote,as their electoral base would have had it's wishes fulfilled,certainly there would be a realignment of traditional party lines,the Conservatives wouldn't be able to play the Unionist card any longer,but on the other hand they wouldn't be tied to London,and Ruth Davidson has shown that one-nation conservatism can win votes in Scotland.

Labour surely can't go any lower in Scottish vote-share then the 9% of the European Elections,and the LibDems will always have a base of 10% or so.

With the AV system that's used in Holyrood elections,coalition politics is inevitable at least in the short term.

What all the above means for England,and to a lesser extent Wales is unclear,but a more right Conservative party is much more likely with the break up of the union.

I think a Labour government or a Labour-led coalition government could keep the UK together with first a referendum on Proportional Representation with the promise of Labour backing for PR, and if PR loses then Scotland can have a second Indyref. The biggest problem Scotland has with Westminster is that they're repeatedly voting for left of centre politicians and not being represented in Westminster, and that's a result of the FPTP system. With a PR system then Scotland will be able to exert as much influence as its votes demand, every parliament, and i think that will satisfy enough Scottish voters to make any second Indyref a bigger win for the No campaign than last time.

But i don't see any way Scotland remains in the UK without a change in our electoral system, or a reversal of Brexit.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:52 am

Right_winger wrote:Trump and Boris excellent. A duo which winds up the gurning snowflakes no end.

Says the political wing that flipped out over a woman sitting on a bus.

HieronymousBoschHobs · Post by **HieronymousBoschHobs** » Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:12 am

: poster,840x830,f8f8f8-pad,750x1000,f8f8f8.jpg (128.65 KiB) Viewed 1547 times

claretonthecoast1882 · Post by **claretonthecoast1882** » Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:31 am

ksrclaret wrote:Please tell me I've not just seen claretonthecoast criticise someone for insulting others.

It's literally all you do on this message board. As soon as you see a post you don't like you're in there like a tramp on chips, personally attacking them.

I criticise those on here who spend all their time bitching about the club, hence why you probably felt the need to comment.

Still at least you got a couple of likes, although one from greenmile isn’t a good thing another who likes to bully certain people on here. As for the other one not really worth a comment.

If you think my posts are personal attacks maybe you should get out more