David Davis resigns

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:23 pm

aggi wrote:I guess the concern is that even including exports we are a net importer of food (with a large amount of that food coming from the EU). I think the stories are coming from the worse case scenario papers that the government seem to be preparing.

Hi aggi, again, I agree, we are a net importer. I believe a lot of the food imports come from the EU as a result of CAP. There's no overriding reason why all the food imports originate in the EU. There are very likely a number of African countries who would be delighted to be part of our supply line if the get the chance - it would be a good thing for their economic growth.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:26 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Hi aggi, again, I agree, we are a net importer. I believe a lot of the food imports come from the EU as a result of CAP. There's no overriding reason why all the food imports originate in the EU. There are very likely a number of African countries who would be delighted to be part of our supply line if the get the chance - it would be a good thing for their economic growth.

The EU is somewhat closer to us than Africa. And food is often perishable. I'm not an expert but maybe one reason so much of our food comes from the EU and not Africa is that it arrives fresher, arrives cheaper, and arrives more easily.

But i could be wrong. And if I am wrong then apparently i'm lying.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:40 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:The EU is somewhat closer to us than Africa. And food is often perishable. I'm not an expert but maybe one reason so much of our food comes from the EU and not Africa is that it arrives fresher, arrives cheaper, and arrives more easily.

But i could be wrong. And if I am wrong then apparently i'm lying.

Two things IT,

1) refrigeration;
2) a large number of fresh flowers are flown into UK every day from Kenya (maybe elsewhere as well). They use spare capacity from the returning aircraft. I'm sure they are kept chilled - just as the flowers that are trucked across from the Netherlands every day.

It's important for a gentleman to have a fresh button hole every moring, old chap!

PS: Wrong could just be mistaken or misinformed. I don't think you are lying.

randomclaret2 · Post by **randomclaret2** » Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:47 pm

Youd think those who espouse social justice and equality might want to spread some of our wealth towards the poorer countries of the world instead of further enriching Germany all the time

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:53 pm

randomclaret2 wrote:Youd think those who espouse social justice and equality might want to spread some of our wealth towards the poorer countries of the world instead of further enriching Germany all the time

We do. But what chance of us doing that with a free trade deal as opposed to a fair trade deal? To keep the UK economy going as best it can after we shoot ourselves in the foot we're hardly going to give those countries more favourable deals than they currently get from us, are we? Certainly not with this right-wing a government.

But I want to applaud what i'm sure is genuine concern for the plight of poor countries. Maybe you could express that concern the next time the right decides to bang their drum about foreign aid. Or maybe you could express that concern when some of them want to come here for something resembling freedom and a better life for themselves and their children.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:03 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:We do. But what chance of us doing that with a free trade deal as opposed to a fair trade deal? To keep the UK economy going as best it can after we shoot ourselves in the foot we're hardly going to give those countries more favourable deals than they currently get from us, are we?

Hi IT, thought you might appreciate a little data on Kenya's flower sector:

"Kenya is the lead exporter of rose cut flowers to the European Union (EU) with a market share of 38%. Approximately 50% of exported flowers are sold through the Dutch Auctions, although direct sales are growing. In the United Kingdom, supermarkets are the main outlets. Over 25% of exported flowers are delivered directly to these multiples, providing an opportunity for value addition at source through sleeving, labelling and bouquet production. Kenya flowers are sold in more than 60 countries.

"It is estimated that in Kenya, over 500,000 people, including over 100,000 flower farm employees depend on the floriculture industry impacting over 2 million livelihoods."

So far as I'm aware, no one ever advertises flowers/roses as being "fair trade." Free trade is all that is needed for industries to thrive. "Fair trade" is about (i) agreeing a split of revenues with the local producers and (ii) persuading consumer to pay a bit more for the fair trade product than the other one that may be cheaper but doesn't claim fair trade.

And, yes, a free trade deal will always be better than a deal that is not free trade - and it doesn't involve shooting anyone in the foot (or any other biody part).

PS: Yes, I know we don't eat flowers, but I guess the same opportunity could exist for lettuce and other high volume/low weight crops (whatever they are).

PPS: As all political geeks know: peanuts don't usually make a great crop in some African countries.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:12 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Hi aggi, again, I agree, we are a net importer. I believe a lot of the food imports come from the EU as a result of CAP. There's no overriding reason why all the food imports originate in the EU. There are very likely a number of African countries who would be delighted to be part of our supply line if the get the chance - it would be a good thing for their economic growth.

We could but I'm sure you're aware that this wouldn't be an overnight change and the deadline is fast approaching. It also wouldn't get around the delays due to checks at the border as we will be moving away from importing from a single market.

Little of this is insurmountable but much of it requires forethought, preparation and investment that doesn't seem to be happening.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:25 am

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:41 am

If it wins, then at least we know that is what enough want.

Lets be honest here, everyone would have to deal with it.

And we'd be alright eventually..........

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:46 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Lets be honest here, everyone would have to deal with it.
...

Over 2 years of you coming on here proving youve never accepted the result of the referendum would suggest otherwise.

Democracy - it means sometimes you lose.....

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:50 am

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:50 am

Two years of arguing with you has convinced me of two things Ringo

- You care passionately about Brexit

- You don't think that a Hard Brexit will affect you and your job

Nothing anyone says to you will change that so why bother?

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:52 am

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:04 am

Can't wait to see how it all turns out. Brexit's gonna multiply the impact of the coming recession so get saving your money now, because you're gonna need it. And yes, i'm aware that saving money instead of spending it will make the recession worse, but you gotta think about yourself.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:07 am

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:07 am

Mays deal would win every time though in an av referendum, no brexiteer would put remain as 2nd choice, and no remainer would put no deal as second choice. So by default, mays deal would win.

randomclaret2 · Post by **randomclaret2** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:09 am

I wouldn't be trusting a financial guru who relies on " gonna " and " gotta "

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:09 am

But at least we'd have the UK idea backed with a democratic vote.

Would give her a bit more clout with both her own MPs and the EU

Even though the May deal isn't ideal, it does (expensively) mean leaving the EU.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:09 am

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:10 am

I wonder what leavers make of the immigration figures released today?

Net long-term migration to the UK from the EU was 101,000 last year, the lowest estimate since the year ending March 2013, new figures show.
But the Office for National Statistics said that net migration from countries outside the EU had risen to 227,000, the highest level since September 2010.
The overall net migration figure was an estimated 282,000 in 2017, the highest for 18 months.
The data is for the first full calendar year since the Brexit vote.

(Taken from the BBC)
Looks like another of the "remainer" predictions might be true.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:11 am

claretandy wrote:Mays deal would win every time though in an av referendum, no brexiteer would put remain as 2nd choice, and no remainer would put no deal as second choice. So by default, mays deal would win.

So i suppose you think that makes it rigged?

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:13 am

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:14 am

claretandy wrote:Mays deal would win every time though in an av referendum, no brexiteer would put remain as 2nd choice, and no remainer would put no deal as second choice. So by default, mays deal would win.

Not necessarily the case.
Many brexiteers have already said that the "May fudge" would be far worse than staying in, because - arguably - it would give the UK even less control of it's own destiny.
(e.g. we would still be under the sphere of the ECJ, but wouldn't have any representation on it).

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:14 am

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:15 am

If it be your will wrote:It's interesting that claretandy thinks this, and he may well be right - who knows? - but I would have thought May's deal would be knocked out in the first round by an absolute mile, but perhaps not.

That would be my thought also - but it depends what method of AV is used.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:16 am

If 'Remain' was an option, we'd have to have buttoned-down guarantees from the EU on at least 4 things. Schengen opt-out, Euro opt-out, rebate and EU army. There may be others too. Otherwise(although I'm sure they would let it lie) as the Remain supporters often point out, you're in danger of voting for something whose details are unclear.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:18 am

Which is why we'd have to make sure that we could revoke Article 50.

I'm 100% sure we could, but you'd want it nailed down legally

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:19 am

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:19 am

thatdberight wrote:If 'Remain' was an option, we'd have to have buttoned-down guarantees from the EU on at least 4 things. Schengen opt-out, Euro opt-out, rebate and EU army. There may be others too. Otherwise(although I'm sure they would let it lie) as the Remain supporters often point out, you're in danger of voting for something whose details are unclear.

Yeah, i really am ****** off at how the EU have forced Schengen and the Euro on us, forced us to have no rebate and also about how we have the EU army patrolling our streets. No wonder we voted to leave

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:21 am

randomclaret2 wrote:I wouldn't be trusting a financial guru who relies on " gonna " and " gotta "

Not even Nobel prize winning economists? https://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/17/opin ... faith.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Your criteria for listening to someone is predictably stupid.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:22 am

If it be your will wrote:Come on IT. You're never one to shy away. What is your order of preference, then?

1. Remain
2. No deal

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:22 am

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:23 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:But at least we'd have the UK idea backed with a democratic vote.

Would give her a bit more clout with both her own MPs and the EU

Even though the May deal isn't ideal, it does (expensively) mean leaving the EU.

It doesn't mean leaving the EU at all.
As long as Brussels can exercise their voice over Westminster, in order to allow us access to anything they deem warrants it, we are still part of the EU.
Mays deal was the worst scenario. We aren't in, so don't get all the benefits, and we aren't out so can't pick our own path.
I want a deal, but not at any price. No deal, and a hard Brexit, is still better than a bad deal.
The only thing preventing a deal that suits everybody is the intransigence of the EU negotiators. They could say yes to a deal tomorrow, but that would backfire on their idea that the EU is necessary. It isn't. We could achieve all of the dreams of the people of Europe without Brussels, all it takes is like minded people to cooperate. You can't dictate cooperation.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:25 am

If it be your will wrote:Would you accept/support a second referendum, of an AV type, between 1) No-deal 2) May's deal 3) Remain ?
What would win, do you think?

Edit - Oh, and what would your order of preference be? Genuinely interested in leavers' opinions are on this.

Edit II - I should at least answer my own questions: I support a second AV referendum. If the date of leaving can be put back to say, 2028, my order would be 1-3-2.
If the date of leaving was March 29 2019, my order would be 3-1-2. I think '2' would always come last for me because it's so intellectually incoherent and stupid. (*These views are preliminary and might be subject to change)

I've answered this before. The demand from the likes of Adonis are a vote on the deal.

So, he can have that!

However, if you respect democracy and therefore accept the result of the biggest single expression of democracy the UK has witnessed. Then you have to have this question, as the 2nd referendum question.

The UK is leaving the European. Union. The government has negotiated a trade deal on your behalf. Do you want to Leave the EU and it's associated bodies on which basis?

1 leave with the deal

2, leave without a deal.

The first referendum is respected and the rabid Remoaners get their vote on the deal.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:27 am

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:27 am

If it be your will wrote:I assumed it would be to write 1, 2, 3 in order of preference, with the lowest total of 1s in the first round being eliminated and having their second choices added to the remaining 2 options. I can't think how else it could be done. Is there another way it could be done?

Yes. You can remove all the 1s and then have each voter draw a diagram of what they'd like to happen. And then, because it would be easier and less chaotic than whatever the **** May is doing now, we have the government negotiate towards the average of all those diagrams.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:29 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Which is why we'd have to make sure that we could revoke Article 50.

I'm 100% sure we could, but you'd want it nailed down legally

And this is you "Lets be honest here, everyone would have to deal with it." This is you "dealing with it!"?

Let's be honest. You're no democrat.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:29 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:Yeah, i really am ****** off at how the EU have forced Schengen and the Euro on us, forced us to have no rebate and also about how we have the EU army patrolling our streets. No wonder we voted to leave

Just because we have those opt-outs now, doesn't mean we would have them if we applied to withdraw Article 50. Article 50 can only be withdrawn with the permission of the other 27, unanimously, and would be subject to whatever terms and conditions they choose to impose.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:29 am

At the danger of going through all this again

- it was "Yes" or "No" - you interpret it the way you wanted to, I do as well

- You refuse to accept that the four pillars of the EU are non-negotiable. Why on earth would you still think they are?

- Norway is not in the EU and neither is Switzerland. They have deals with the EU where you have to accept some loss of sovereignty. To think you can have a deal with ANY country without suffering some loss of sovereignty (ie a court to sort out disagreements) is disingenuous at best

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:30 am

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:31 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:At the danger of going through all this again

- it was "Yes" or "No" - you interpret it the way you wanted to, I do as well

- You refuse to accept that the four pillars of the EU are non-negotiable. Why on earth would you still think they are?

- Norway is not in the EU and neither is Switzerland. They have deals with the EU where you have to accept some loss of sovereignty. To think you can have a deal with ANY country without suffering some loss of sovereignty (ie a court to sort out disagreements) is disingenuous at best

Customer: I'd like to buy this thing
Cashier: OK. That will be this amount of money
Customer: No deal. I'd like to buy this thing but not suffer any loss of money
Cashier: But sir, that's n... *[interrupted]*
Customer: WHY ARE YOU OPPRESSING ME?!

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:35 am

I would have thought that the proposed AV would make no difference to the result. Taking the referendum result as a starting point, we had:

Remain 48%
Leave 52%

So if we have a 3-way referendum, the result (all else being equal)

Remain 48% less x% for May's deal
Leave 52% less y% for May's deal
May's deal x+y%.

I can't see x+y% getting anything like enough votes to be in the top two. Remainers surely won't vote for it in significant numbers, and I doubt they could get half or almost half of Brexiters to put it as first choice because it's much more like Remain than like Brexit (IMO). And so May's deal gets ditched and we're back to a straight vote between Stay and Go.

And after all, the EU hasn't been making any effort to win friends in the past two years. As as Mrs May showed in the last general election, a policy of "vote for us because the other lot are worse" doesn't always win.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:38 am

And again, at the risk of going over old ground

- Leave promised a Brexit that is impossible

- Which is why its been watered down each month as the reality has sunk in.

- When asked for an alternative plan, no one in Leave has got one, or has ever said what one would involve

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:39 am

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:42 am

If it be your will wrote:I doubt that will never be put to a referendum - it'd never get through parliament. You've sort of bypassed the first round and that's not fair. So in a 3-way referendum, what would be your order?

"Would you accept/support a second referendum, of an AV type"

Should've made it more clear. No.

You option is entirely loaded , in so much as , "No-deal 2) May's deal 3) Remain ?" It completely ignores the result of the biggest single expression of democracy the UK has witnessed !!!!

And you "doubt that will never be put to a referendum - it'd never get through parliament. You've sort of bypassed the first round and that's not fair. "

You're right it won't. Why because parliament is packed to the gills with Remoaners who simply don't accept the result of the referendum therefore, democracy.

And if it's "not fair" to "bypass the first round" what's "fair" about completely ignoring the referendum result!

1 You asked a question.

2 I gave you my answer.

3 You don't like the answer.

4 Now your asking me again in order to try and get the answer you want.

This is straight out of the EU's Guide To Referendums And Democracy!!!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:42 am

Ringo, your posts on a whole host of subjects on this board mean you are completely the wrong person to argue about someone democratic credentials.

IMHO of course!

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:45 am

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:46 am

If it be your will wrote:I would imagine it would be 'Remain on the current terms', which satisfies your demands. I appreciate we might need EU27 permission for this, but I think we'd get it. Assuming this was the case, what would your order of preference be, then?

I really doubt that. The EU has shown its steadfastness to its own principles in this matter and the UK's reluctance on such matters has long been an issue. In negotiating with a tail-between-the-legs UK that was asking to withdraw Article 50, I see no reason why it wouldn't leverage that. I know I would if I were them. What else would they want? Guarantee by treaty of no further in/out vote for 30 years? Not unreasonable. I wouldn't want to be dicked about like this again.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:47 am

dsr wrote:I would have thought that the proposed AV would make no difference to the result. Taking the referendum result as a starting point, we had:

Remain 48%
Leave 52%

So if we have a 3-way referendum, the result (all else being equal)

Remain 48% less x% for May's deal
Leave 52% less y% for May's deal
May's deal x+y%.

I can't see x+y% getting anything like enough votes to be in the top two. Remainers surely won't vote for it in significant numbers, and I doubt they could get half or almost half of Brexiters to put it as first choice because it's much more like Remain than like Brexit (IMO). And so May's deal gets ditched and we're back to a straight vote between Stay and Go.

And after all, the EU hasn't been making any effort to win friends in the past two years. As as Mrs May showed in the last general election, a policy of "vote for us because the other lot are worse" doesn't always win.

You don't appear to be considering that it's perfectly possibly that there were some people who were convinced to vote leave based on the Leave campaigns promise that we could get a soft Brexit. When that possibility is completely removed if/when 'May's deal' is eliminated, what makes you think that those who were convinced to vote Leave on the promise of a soft Brexit wouldn't choose May's Deal and have Remain as their second choice?

That's why i'm confident Remain will win. Because in the original referendum people who voted Remain knew that they wanted to remain. There wasn't various degrees of remain. There wasn't a Hard of Soft Remain being talked about. It was just Remain. But that's not true of the Leave vote. Vote Leave basically pooled together all of the Hard and Soft Brexit voters to win, and then didn't know which of the two options they wanted when they won (which is why we're in this mess now).

IF in a ranked choice referendum May's Deal is eliminated in the first round then Remain will win comfortably. Remain will be starting at about 48% because their vote in the original referendum was a solid, certain vote to remain. But those people who were only convinced to vote leave because of the promise of a Soft Brexit will obviously have Remain as their second choice.

But if something other than May's Deal is eliminated first round then May's Deal will win.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:49 am