Russia Invades

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1504827646739640321

Map not really moving again, but this shows the gains of both sides

I reckon Sumy is now encircled to the NW, but the Russians have abandoned all hope of taking Myloki'v

Be very interesting to see if Ukraine can do more down there, as almost certainly Russia is transferring troops from that front to other fronts

Longer the cities hold, the harder it is for the Russians to resupply as they are essentially tied to the rail hubs within Russia

Different picture in the south, where the Russians can use captured ports like Berdyansk to resupply a lot closer to the front line

Also worth commenting on the MOD situation report regarding Kharki'v, they regard it as surrounded, and it clearly isn't, as the civilians are being evacuated by train and supply and ammo is going in the same way

[Lancasterclaret]

and Putin was there giving a speech

Nuremburg rally 2022

[Hipper]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 9022230548

Well, Russia pumping the maximum amount of gas through the pipelines of Ukraine to Western Europe, to raise funds to continue fighting the war

Considering the situation, this is remarkable

How representative is that?

https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/r ... ine-939590

Further I'm guessing that the weather over Europe, like here, is improving so reducing the need for gas etc..

[Lancasterclaret]

How representative is that?

https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/r ... ine-939590

"The Ukrainian gas transmission system operator sees Russian gas transit via Ukraine at maximum contractual volumes on Friday after two days of lower volumes, RIA news agency reported."

Whatever maximum contractual volumes are

Both accounts saying the same thing essentially (if I'm reading it right!)

[Hipper]

"The Ukrainian gas transmission system operator sees Russian gas transit via Ukraine at maximum contractual volumes on Friday after two days of lower volumes, RIA news agency reported."

Whatever maximum contractual volumes are

Both accounts saying the same thing essentially (if I'm reading it right!)

But are there normally ups and downs? I suspect there are, meaning that 'maximum contractual volumes' can occur at anytime. Meaning there's no significance in this. I don't know this, it's just a guess.

[Lancasterclaret]

But are there normally ups and downs? I suspect there are, meaning that 'maximum contractual volumes' can occur at anytime. Meaning there's no significance in this. I don't know this, it's just a guess.

I don't know either, but I still think its weird when you consider the fighting, that gas is still being shipped from one combatant through the territory of the other. Thats what threw me the most

Technically Russia are paying Ukraine for that transit, though how on earth that is being collected is anyones guess

[Hipper]

I don't know either, but I still think its weird when you consider the fighting, that gas is still being shipped from one combatant through the territory of the other. Thats what threw me the most

Technically Russia are paying Ukraine for that transit, though how on earth that is being collected is anyones guess

I must agree that you'd think the first thing the Ukrainians would have done was cut off that pipeline. Perhaps there's some agreement with Russia and/or western countries that the pipe will stay open.

[Hipper]

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1504827646739640321

Map not really moving again, but this shows the gains of both sides

I reckon Sumy is now encircled to the NW, but the Russians have abandoned all hope of taking Myloki'v

Be very interesting to see if Ukraine can do more down there, as almost certainly Russia is transferring troops from that front to other fronts

Longer the cities hold, the harder it is for the Russians to resupply as they are essentially tied to the rail hubs within Russia

Different picture in the south, where the Russians can use captured ports like Berdyansk to resupply a lot closer to the front line

Also worth commenting on the MOD situation report regarding Kharki'v, they regard it as surrounded, and it clearly isn't, as the civilians are being evacuated by train and supply and ammo is going in the same way

Interesting map.

It seems the next major milestone in this war will be the fall of Mariupol. That may then lead to the complete loss of the south of Ukraine. After that a march north for Kviv.

Signed, another armchair general.

[Spijed]

https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/ ... 1129101312

"BREAKING EU leaders are in possession of "very reliable evidence" that China is considering military assistance to Russia . The EU will "impose trade barriers against China" should Beijing proceed with Russia's request. EU-China summit is scheduled for April 1. #Dragonbear"

[Lowbankclaret]

I must agree that you'd think the first thing the Ukrainians would have done was cut off that pipeline. Perhaps there's some agreement with Russia and/or western countries that the pipe will stay open.

Basically from what I have read it’s along these lines.
Russia needs to send the gas to fund war.
We need the gas or our lights and heating goes off.

Ukraine believes the western people would lose sympathy with them if they cut it off. Then not get the arms they are getting now from the west.

Everyone is in a catch 22.

[Billy Balfour]

I don't think China will provide military assistance to Russia. China will make a lot of noise about helping Russia while seeing what they can get out of the US for their continued neutrality.

Also, the level of sanctions applied on Russia would have been a big surprise to the Chinese. One more reason; they weren't informed of the full extent of Russia's invasion plans and no longer trust Putin, but of course they aren't going to say this in public. Yep, they'll make all the right noise re support for him while keeping neutral, but they won't damage their economy by sending military assistance.

[Lowbankclaret]

I don't think China will provide military assistance to Russia. China will make a lot of noise about helping Russia while seeing what they can get out of the US for their continued neutrality.

Also, the level of sanctions applied on Russia would have been a big surprise to the Chinese. One more reason; they weren't informed of the full extent of Russia's invasion plans and no longer trust Putin, but of course they aren't going to say this in public. Yep, they'll make all the right noise re support for him while keeping neutral, but they won't damage their economy by sending military assistance.

I hope your right, currently I think it’s 50/50.

I was talking to a friend this afternoon and Sanctions would have a massive impact on my old company. They now have massive amounts of parts made in China. The Russian sanctions are causing enough issues.

[conyoviejo]

Sanctions are better than nuclear war .

[Lowbankclaret]

Sanctions are better than nuclear war .

100% agree, we will feel sanctions on China much more than on Russia. Just about everything we buy now is made in China. All because Putin is deluded. It’s sad.

I have been 100% on the don’t get our soldiers involved for 22 days, but my resolve is fading. I am about 60/40 now we shouldn’t.

Providing Ukraine with thousands of switchblade drones is currently the best option out of this mess.

[Burnley1989]

100% agree, we will feel sanctions on China much more than on Russia. Just about everything we buy now is made in China. All because Putin is deluded. It’s sad.

I have been 100% on the don’t get our soldiers involved for 22 days, but my resolve is fading. I am about 60/40 now we shouldn’t.

Providing Ukraine with thousands of switchblade drones is currently the best option out of this mess.

I think we’ve spent too many years thinking we are a superpower that needs to get involved in any conflict, id rather we stay well away from sending our boys in

MODERATOR PLEASE NOTE: WORLD WAR 2 Debate deleted, its a good threads worth on its own, but this is not it.

[Vegas Claret]

Nixon with a good point

[JohnMcGreal]

Potentially 40,000 Syrian troops may have signed up to support Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

[bfcjg]

Potentially 40,000 Syrian troops may have signed up to support Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

I think this could well be a game changer, Putin on about the glorious Russian army and now they are so decimated they have called on another country, I think this edges NATO closer to getting involved.

[NewClaret]

I think this could well be a game changer, Putin on about the glorious Russian army and now they are so decimated they have called on another country, I think this edges NATO closer to getting involved.

Not seeing much, if anything, on here about the Ukrainians taking any victories in terms of destroying Russian equipment. If the Russians are bringing in extra forces, why don’t the Ukrainians go on a hard push & destroy a load of these convoys while they appear to be sitting ducks/going nowhere?

[Billy Balfour]

Interesting thread here on today's Z-rally in Moscow.

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?src=t ... hitechapel

[Lowbankclaret]

Not seeing much, if anything, on here about the Ukrainians taking any victories in terms of destroying Russian equipment. If the Russians are bringing in extra forces, why don’t the Ukrainians go on a hard push & destroy a load of these convoys while they appear to be sitting ducks/going nowhere?

Not sure they have the numbers to do that, they are using small and fast forces to attack small amounts of Russian forces at a time. The website showing loses still shows they hit the 60-80 pieces of kit in the last day. But it has been a slow news day.

[conyoviejo]

Biden warns China of the consequences if it supplies Russia with weapons in a 2 hour video call.

[Lowbankclaret]

Mariupol!! So sad.

https://news.sky.com/video/share-12569598

[Billy Balfour]

I read that thread I linked to about the Moscow Z rally and how Putin's henchmen get Russian public sector workers etc to 'support' his war, and I count my blessings that we live in a democracy.

[Colburn_Claret]

Potentially 40,000 Syrian troops may have signed up to support Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

This could be good news for all those Syrians living under the cosh. Those going to Russia will be canon fodder for Ukrainians, in those conditions and little training. When they don't come home again Assad will be a lot more vulnerable.

[elwaclaret]

Russians now digging in.

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/statu ... 61795?s=21

[elwaclaret]

World Food Aid now warning that the supply chains into Ukraine were now collapsing under the bombrdmet. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1504 ... 60099?s=21

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: An in-depth look at the sanctions and what they mean in practice:-

https://twitter.com/reuterslegal/status ... 44224?s=21

[elwaclaret]

President Zelenskiy warns that ‘hundreds’ still remained trapped under the bombed theatre in Mariupol. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1504 ... 53377?s=21

[elwaclaret]

OSINTtechnical - Russians checking males leaving Mariupol for identifying tattoos.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 02725?s=21

[Lowbankclaret]

Biden warns China of the consequences if it supplies Russia with weapons in a 2 hour video call.

Let’s hope and pray they listen.

[NewClaret]

Not sure they have the numbers to do that, they are using small and fast forces to attack small amounts of Russian forces at a time. The website showing loses still shows they hit the 60-80 pieces of kit in the last day. But it has been a slow news day.

I read they have 200+ planes. Surely they can spare a couple to fly over these convoys each day and land some missiles through them to blow them up one by one?

[Gaia]

The Syrian mercenaries have been offered about £300 dollars a month by Putin.

[Vegas Claret]

...

[elwaclaret]

And here is the Major General that made Peter Caddick-Adams as a source pretty cast iron for me (if you are quick before he self censors)…

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 93570?s=21

[Lowbankclaret]

...

Wow, 5 or 6 now.

[Mala591]

1. Aim to cut off Russian oil from Europe
2. UK needs Iranian oil
3. UK pays off long standing £300 million debt to Iran
4. Nazinin released
5. UK buys Iranian oil

Am I being too cynical?

[Lowbankclaret]

1. Aim to cut off Russian oil from Europe
2. UK needs Iranian oil
3. UK pays off long standing £300 million debt to Iran
4. Nazinin released
5. UK buys Iranian oil

Am I being too cynical?

Probably unconnected.

Russia is not going to turn off the oil.

It needs the money to fund the war.

[JarrowClaret]

Johnny Mercer Conservative MP been in and around Irpin, Kyiv etc this week wow I didn’t expect to read that.

[Lowbankclaret]

Johnny Mercer Conservative MP been in and around Irpin, Kyiv etc this week wow I didn’t expect to read that.

Braver man than me. Props to him.

[Vegas Claret]

what's happened to Tsar Bomba ? Not seen him on here this week

[Taffy on the wing]

The Syrian mercenaries have been offered about £300 dollars a month by Putin.

Offer them $400 to turn on the Russians.......problem solved.

[Gibbo]

Interesting article by Andrew Neil

ANDREW NEIL: Why Putin is now in real trouble in Ukraine. https://mol.im/a/10628889 via
@MailOnline

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Reports of a Hypersonic missile being fired at Ukraine by Russia
The West doesn't have the tech to stop those at present.

[bfcjg]

Surely the Russian people will turn when the grim reality of their leaders plan to import 40,000 arab mercenaries to kill fellow Slavs.

[NewClaret]

Surely the Russian people will turn when the grim reality of their leaders plan to import 40,000 arab mercenaries to kill fellow Slavs.

If they haven’t turned at the barbarity to date, I can’t see what would.

[BigChaCha]

I've stopped reading or watching the mainstream news sources on this crisis and now just come here lol... Absolutely brilliant thread and well done to CT for bringing it back and also a pat on the back for the moderators who are now doing a sterling job by it keeping it on track.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Surely the Russian people will turn when the grim reality of their leaders plan to import 40,000 arab mercenaries to kill fellow Slavs.

They probably aren't being told about it

[Hipper]

World Food Aid now warning that the supply chains into Ukraine were now collapsing under the bombardmet. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1504 ... 60099?s=21

This I would suggest is another part of the Russian strategy.

In a country of 44 million with about 4 million having left, there are still a lot of mouths to feed.

[Hipper]

REUTERS: An in-depth look at the sanctions and what they mean in practice:-

https://twitter.com/reuterslegal/status ... 44224?s=21

Legal niceties can be dealt with later. This is war now.