#politicslive

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Lancasterclaret
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Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:56 pm

Yes I agree with all that.

I don't think a 2nd ref will stop that, but to get to a 2nd ref then Parliament will change the law to either revoke it (or with the support of the EU) to extend it.

I'm like you, I can't see how we can't get a deal from here but you never know.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Damo » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:15 pm

Odds on no deal Brexit dropped slightly from 3/1 to 5/2.
Still time to make a small wager lads

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:21 pm

Anti "No deal" deals arriving in Parliament on Monday which will probably pass (unless Labour really are as bad as we all make out)

*EDIT - apparently need to control the debate first with bills and amendments
Last edited by Lancasterclaret on Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

dpinsussex
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Re: #politicslive

Post by dpinsussex » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:42 pm

I am no lib dem but well done Vince cable.
Won't support Corbyn in any more no confidence votes because he is playing party politics rather than acting on the wishes of his own members and Mps. Time he got off the fence and made his position plain.
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Re: #politicslive

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:04 pm

dpinsussex wrote:I am no lib dem but well done Vince cable.
Won't support Corbyn in any more no confidence votes because he is playing party politics rather than acting on the wishes of his own members and Mps. Time he got off the fence and made his position plain.
Vince Cable accusing Corbyn of playing party politics, is itself an act of playing party politics. After the government suffering such a huge defeat, Labour were constitutionally obligated to bring a vote of no confidence. And Cable and the other parties rightly supported this. The real question is how, after inflicting a humiliating defeat on their own leader, could so many Tory MPs then express confidence in her the following day? Or why, after two years of in-fighting, have the party of government - the one that has not bothered until now to seek input from other parties - still not agreed on a position? It's the Tories who have made this such a shambles, and they shoulder the entirety of the blame, as much as they're trying to pin it on other parties.

As for Corbyn's position - well it's the same as the official Labour Party position. The one voted for by members at conference. It has remained unchanged for months, so the only reason you think he's sitting on a fence is because you've read that somewhere. Try reading his own actual words, rather than what newspapers claim he believes:

https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corb ... wakefield/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:07 pm

Andrew, everybody knew that the confidence vote was a waste of time.

It had to be done, and now its done.

Now move on to what is possible with the current parliamentary arithmetic please (and what is official labour policy)

Which a different deal (softer brexit though) or another vote.

Thats all the Lib Dems are doing here, making sure that Labour don't waste anymore time.
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Re: #politicslive

Post by Chobulous » Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:25 pm

Labour's position voted for at conference ie all options are on the table are weasel words and nothing more. It's a way of saying "we don't want to upset our members nor the voters in what used to be our heartlands because we know they both want different things." That is the truth of it. Traditional Labour voters and metromen Labour members have diametrically opposed views.
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Re: #politicslive

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:49 pm

Chobulous wrote:Labour's position voted for at conference ie all options are on the table are weasel words and nothing more. It's a way of saying "we don't want to upset our members nor the voters in what used to be our heartlands because we know they both want different things." That is the truth of it. Traditional Labour voters and metromen Labour members have diametrically opposed views.
On the surface they may appear to be in opposition, however when it comes to bread and butter issues - housing, jobs, education, healthcare, transport, benefits, then they're much the same.

You think the Labour Party should have come up with a position designed to enrage one or another chunk of the membership? What would be the point? Weasel words? Maybe, but not quite a vacuous as "Brexit means Brexit"

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Re: #politicslive

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:20 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Andrew, everybody knew that the confidence vote was a waste of time.

It had to be done, and now its done.

Now move on to what is possible with the current parliamentary arithmetic please (and what is official labour policy)

Which a different deal (softer brexit though) or another vote.

Thats all the Lib Dems are doing here, making sure that Labour don't waste anymore time.
I think it'll only ever come back to a second vote. If May accepted Britain staying in the customs union, then the EU have said they would reopen the conversation in light of this, but I can't see May taking this step. There is also not enough support in parliament for a no deal outcome, as Hammond illustrated yesterday with his call to business. Labour won't accept a deal in which Britain is out of a customs union, because the effect on jobs could be terrible, and it's also not a solution that fits with Northern Ireland. So that's the logjam as I see it, and if parliament usurp her to stop a no deal (but won't dissolve itself for another general election), then there is nowhere else to turn.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Damo » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:24 pm

There are 2 options left and 10 weeks to decide which route we go down.
Either rip up article 50 or leave with no deal.
There cannot be an extension. And there is no time to arrange a 2nd vote (even if there was an overwhelming desire for that) or a general election.
On 30th of March, if there is no deal then no deal is the legal default

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:35 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Vince Cable accusing Corbyn of playing party politics, is itself an act of playing party politics. After the government suffering such a huge defeat, Labour were constitutionally obligated to bring a vote of no confidence. And Cable and the other parties rightly supported this. The real question is how, after inflicting a humiliating defeat on their own leader, could so many Tory MPs then express confidence in her the following day? Or why, after two years of in-fighting, have the party of government - the one that has not bothered until now to seek input from other parties - still not agreed on a position? It's the Tories who have made this such a shambles, and they shoulder the entirety of the blame, as much as they're trying to pin it on other parties.

As for Corbyn's position - well it's the same as the official Labour Party position. The one voted for by members at conference. It has remained unchanged for months, so the only reason you think he's sitting on a fence is because you've read that somewhere. Try reading his own actual words, rather than what newspapers claim he believes:

https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corb ... wakefield/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
IF he has an opinion, then why can't he say what it is?
To vote against Mays deal I can understand, it was a bad deal. To then claim he won't negotiate with the PM UNLESS no deal is off the table is joke. It isn't up to her to take No Deal off the table. She is bound to the vote in the referendum, to leave.
What has he got to say that is constructive? The biggest decision this country has had to face in a lifetime, and he would rather score points over the floor of the house. If he thinks that is scoring him points with the country, he has his head stuck up his arse. People are sick and tired of politicians focusing on what is best for the Party, rather than what is best for the country. All politicians need to wake up to the fact that people aren't happy, and it isn't because we are leaving the EU, and it isn't because we are staying in the EU, it's because the incumbents in Parliament couldn't organise a **** up in a brewery.
Businesses up and down the country are crying out for this to be resolved. they don't care much which way it goes, so long as there is clarity, because you can't make plans for the future when you don't know what the future is. Corbyn is in a position to help in that process, he should be grateful that he has been included, because this isn't a Party issue. There are Labour members who want to leave, just as there are Labour members who want to stay. The sam was every other major party, why can't he do what is best for the country,for businesses, for me and you, and act like a man instead of a puppet.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Guich » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:39 pm

I fear Corbyn is simply making himself even more irrelevant in the 21st century.

If ever we needed a strong opposition this was it.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:56 pm

Chobulous wrote:Yes but the EU offers a much bigger, fatter, more nutritious, venal gravy train.
The EU train is for MEPs not our MPs. It’s like comparing a Bullet to a Northern Sprint!

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Colburn_Claret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:59 pm

AndrewJB wrote:I think it'll only ever come back to a second vote. If May accepted Britain staying in the customs union, then the EU have said they would reopen the conversation in light of this, but I can't see May taking this step. There is also not enough support in parliament for a no deal outcome, as Hammond illustrated yesterday with his call to business. Labour won't accept a deal in which Britain is out of a customs union, because the effect on jobs could be terrible, and it's also not a solution that fits with Northern Ireland. So that's the logjam as I see it, and if parliament usurp her to stop a no deal (but won't dissolve itself for another general election), then there is nowhere else to turn.
I don't think it can come back to a second vote, unless they want the country to rip itself apart.
Parliament had a say on what the deal should be, they don't have any right to overturn the referendum result.
If they had approved Mays deal it would have passed, and we would have left with a bloody awful deal. If they don't come up with something better before the end of March then we leave with No Deal.
The lies put forth by remainers, have all been in the hope of pressurising the general public into thinking that it was a bad idea, we need to rethink this.
The truth is we don't need the negativity they've cultivated over the last 2 years.
At worst with No Deal
We trade with Europe under the regulations of the WTO. The rest of the world doesn't complain about that so why should we.
We would be free to make trade deals with the rest of the world.
We would save ourselves £39 billion a year, we don't have to pay dues to a club we get nothing from.
Calais has already said that the scare stories of lorries parking up on the M20 are wrong, as it won't affect traffic.
No European workers are going to be extradited back home, they can stay here and work as long as they like.
No Brits are going to be repatriated either, theres no will for that, and the Spanish economy couldn't afford it anyway.
We will probably have to pay tariffs on our exports to Europe, but on the same token we can charge tariffs on goods coming from Europe. We can even use the money to help any businesses that find difficulty because of the tariffs, because due to the trade deficit and the £39 billion, we will be quids in.

I'm not pretending it will be the land of milk and honey, there is bound to be bumps in the road, and winners and losers, as in everything else in life, but if for one second people stopped bleating on about all the bad things and instead focussed on all the good things that could come from this change there wouldn't be any panic of a no deal, or the whimpering for a second vote. For the vast majority of this country April will bring the usual showers. We'll get up and go to work. Get our pay slips at the end of the week. Look forward to a pint at the weekend. A check to see who the Clarets have coming up, and our only concern will be will we avoid the bottom three. By June people will be thinking, "was that it then?"
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Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:16 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Vince Cable accusing Corbyn of playing party politics, is itself an act of playing party politics. After the government suffering such a huge defeat, Labour were constitutionally obligated to bring a vote of no confidence. And Cable and the other parties rightly supported this. The real question is how, after inflicting a humiliating defeat on their own leader, could so many Tory MPs then express confidence in her the following day? Or why, after two years of in-fighting, have the party of government - the one that has not bothered until now to seek input from other parties - still not agreed on a position? It's the Tories who have made this such a shambles, and they shoulder the entirety of the blame, as much as they're trying to pin it on other parties.

As for Corbyn's position - well it's the same as the official Labour Party position. The one voted for by members at conference. It has remained unchanged for months, so the only reason you think he's sitting on a fence is because you've read that somewhere. Try reading his own actual words, rather than what newspapers claim he believes:

https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corb ... wakefield/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
He wasn’t constitutionally bound it was a choice he
made. As for his position - “a new customs union with a British say in future trade deals, a strong single market relationship, and a guarantee to keep pace with EU rights and standards”

Where do you start - this isn’t a serious and credible position that respects the referendum result it’s a cherry picking fantasy.

How can you be in a CU and strike bilateral deals with other countries? Why would the EU, once we have left, agree to let us have a say in their future trade deals?

What is a strong single market relationship? Will we get this for free or will we have to keep contributing to the EU budget? Will we have to accept free movement? Will

A guarantee to keep pace means we will have to follow their rules (with no input) and ECJ rulings (with no representation) not only on these matters but decisions on SM and CU?

If that is his position what exactly is the point of leaving? What part of the leave campaign- no free movement, no ECJ, striking own trade deals, does it respect?
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Re: #politicslive

Post by aggi » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:31 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:I'm not pretending it will be the land of milk and honey, there is bound to be bumps in the road, and winners and losers, as in everything else in life, but if for one second people stopped bleating on about all the bad things and instead focussed on all the good things that could come from this change there wouldn't be any panic of a no deal, or the whimpering for a second vote. For the vast majority of this country April will bring the usual showers. We'll get up and go to work. Get our pay slips at the end of the week. Look forward to a pint at the weekend. A check to see who the Clarets have coming up, and our only concern will be will we avoid the bottom three. By June people will be thinking, "was that it then?"
So what would the good things be? Compared to the decimation of the farming industry and that kind of stuff? I enjoy your optimism but it's a bit light on reality.

I guess the upside is that a number of people will get (a lot of) extra holidays.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Mala591 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:33 pm

If the EU could be persuaded to reopen the draft withdrawal agreement and allow the UK to unilaterally terminate the back stop after x months (12 months?) of negotiation deadlock then TM will probably be able to get her deal through government with the help of the DUP.

The EU will be extremely reluctant to do this but with March 30th rapidly approaching they might decide that it is the only way to avoid a no deal Brexit.

This proposed solution would also satisfy our MP Julie Cooper who has gone on record as saying she couldn't support the current deal until the UK has the option of a unilateral termination clause.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by RingoMcCartney » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:36 pm

PEOPLES VOTE-

The 1st Peoples Vote was won by Leave in June 2016.. The mandate it gave to the government has not been implemented.

If there was a second referendum it would mean in order to have their view enacted , Leave voters would have to win TWO referenda. Remain would only have had to have won ONE.

How is that fair or democratic?

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Re: #politicslive

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:47 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:I don't think it can come back to a second vote, unless they want the country to rip itself apart.
Parliament had a say on what the deal should be, they don't have any right to overturn the referendum result.
If they had approved Mays deal it would have passed, and we would have left with a bloody awful deal. If they don't come up with something better before the end of March then we leave with No Deal.
The lies put forth by remainers, have all been in the hope of pressurising the general public into thinking that it was a bad idea, we need to rethink this.
The truth is we don't need the negativity they've cultivated over the last 2 years.
At worst with No Deal
We trade with Europe under the regulations of the WTO. The rest of the world doesn't complain about that so why should we.
We would be free to make trade deals with the rest of the world.
We would save ourselves £39 billion a year, we don't have to pay dues to a club we get nothing from.
Calais has already said that the scare stories of lorries parking up on the M20 are wrong, as it won't affect traffic.
No European workers are going to be extradited back home, they can stay here and work as long as they like.
No Brits are going to be repatriated either, theres no will for that, and the Spanish economy couldn't afford it anyway.
We will probably have to pay tariffs on our exports to Europe, but on the same token we can charge tariffs on goods coming from Europe. We can even use the money to help any businesses that find difficulty because of the tariffs, because due to the trade deficit and the £39 billion, we will be quids in.

I'm not pretending it will be the land of milk and honey, there is bound to be bumps in the road, and winners and losers, as in everything else in life, but if for one second people stopped bleating on about all the bad things and instead focussed on all the good things that could come from this change there wouldn't be any panic of a no deal, or the whimpering for a second vote. For the vast majority of this country April will bring the usual showers. We'll get up and go to work. Get our pay slips at the end of the week. Look forward to a pint at the weekend. A check to see who the Clarets have coming up, and our only concern will be will we avoid the bottom three. By June people will be thinking, "was that it then?"
I'm a bit confused by your previous post. What points has Corbyn been "scoring"? If it's because he's pointing out how inept this government is, well, that's actually his job. The government has made an absolute shambles out of this, and it's his duty to the country to hold them to account. Playing politics is the dice game the posh boys played that got us into this mess, and Theresa May has not in any way carried things forward to an acceptable degree. Why is she only talking to other parties now? By sidelining the other parties, she played politics over this for two years.

I'm glad Labour have set their stall against a no deal brexit. You say there's no mandate to suspend A50, or for a second referendum? Well equally there's no mandate to leave without a deal. You think it'll be fine? Well I disagree, and the weight of evidence and considered opinion is on my side. Thankfully, I don't think it'll happen. Parliament will have the numbers to prevent it. The person for you to blame when this happens is Theresa May.
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Lancasterclaret
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Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:51 pm

Jesus, are we seriously back to "we just need to believe more"?

I mean, come on!

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:54 pm

YESSSSSSSSSS Ringo is back!

Get in.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:12 pm

Bordeauxclaret wrote:YESSSSSSSSSS Ringo is back!

Get in.
I thought I'd clicked onto a match thread then!
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Re: #politicslive

Post by biggles » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:18 pm

TM gave her word that we would leave the EU on 29 March. even for a Tory politician, for her to use the old 'things have changed since i promised that' would be too much. it wouldn't surprise me if either she goes [then all options are back on the table, ,including a 2nd ref, Brexit being delayed etc] or she stays and extends the leave date. personally, despite what the EU say, I think the EU can still give TM something extra [probably involving the backstop] just to get this deal [which TM and the EU would accept] through.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by summitclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:31 pm

Biggles. That's obviously the way forward. The EU won't want to as they want total control of the trade discussions. The DUP have been saying for weeks sort the backstop and its a deal.

The is no other way forward in the time left and May needs a way forward that keeps the DUP in the c and s agreement. No chance Norway will.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by jurek » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:46 pm

I think there have been many mistakes made by both main political parties in the lead up
to the vote in Parliament. The majority of these have been made by the Tory Party
and May in particular. Labour and Corbyn have stuck to the decision made at their conference
and Corbyn's refusal to talk to May without preconditions is, I believe, seriously flawed.

I just hope that somehow they (whoever they may be) can come up with a solution that can be brought
back to Parliament on Monday and get voted through although, at present, I have little confidence that will happen.

It probably needs someone from the EU to step in and propose a solution to the backstop
which is acceptable to the DUP and Parliament otherwise we could end up crashing out on no deal.
No deal would probably harm the EU as much, if not more, than it would the UK.

If that were to happen then the onus would be on the Labour Party to support it
but even then it might be voted down especially if the majority of Tory MP's who
opposed it in the first place continued to do so.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:57 pm

If that's the case, May will have to move quickly:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... referendum" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Given the evidence of the last two years, can you be confident in her ability to do so?

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Re: #politicslive

Post by biggles » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:18 pm

AJB - I would take, with a shovel of salt, anything that the Guardian publishes if you want an unbiased and honest opinion or even some actual facts! It's a tad biased.
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Re: #politicslive

Post by Darthlaw » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:25 pm

That guardian article... :lol:

It’s right to fear how much further (Leave) might go in the case of a second referendum, always wrong-footing a painfully fact-based gentler remain campaign.

I always enjoy a good chuckle.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by ClaretAndJew » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:26 pm

Isn't the Guardian one of the most respected newspapers we have?

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Re: #politicslive

Post by biggles » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:34 pm

only by those who respect it! if you are a liberal, socialist, fantasist, gullible etc. basically it writes stuff that its' readers want to read which just goes on to endorse their views and make them feel smug and compassionate. actually, .........that goes the same for most publications [without the compassionate in the main].

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:50 pm

Has anyone explained how Theresa May is going to unilaterally take “no deal off the table”?

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Re: #politicslive

Post by jurek » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:00 pm

The only way I can see is if she can somehow come back to Parliament
with a deal next week that is acceptable to a majority.
One that the EU will accept too.

She can try and put it on the back burner and request extra time
which would postpone it.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Somethingfishy » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:02 pm

Nick Boles doing a good job of selling the Norway option. Keep the economic benefits but out of the ridiculous USE side of things. Surely an option that would satisfy most people in the middle. Maybe not the hardline brexiteers or those campaigning against a democratic decision to get a result they want. (Peoples Vote)

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Mala591 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:09 pm

For the first time in two and a half years the EU are beginning to get genuinely worried (quite rightly imo) that a no deal Brexit might actually occur.

They will come to the realisation that May's 'trump card' is exactly that and the seals on the current withdrawal agreement will suddenly burst open for final clarification that the backstop can be brought to an end unilaterally by the UK in the event of 'complete breakdown in the future trade negotiation'.

You read it here first...

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Re: #politicslive

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:12 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:Has anyone explained how Theresa May is going to unilaterally take “no deal off the table”?
She can say she won't let it happen. She could do this by cancelling brexit, or postponing it. I'm sure the EU would appreciate, and go along with that.

Again you have to wonder; what has she been doing these last two years?

There has been a lot of things said about 'no deal' being our trump card, and a bargaining chip (as was also said about the fate of EU citizens living in the UK, and even denying European carriers our air space (that one was by David Davis)). I don't think that kind of adversarial negotiating technique has served us well. It's not a matter of just being nice and being taken advantage of, but setting out a position that the EU can take seriously, and negotiating without bluster. The manner in which we leave will inform the nature of our relationship with the EU moving forward, and the same works the other way - they won't want a new neighbour that feels ripped off and taken advantage of.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by nil_desperandum » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:13 pm

Somethingfishy wrote:Nick Boles doing a good job of selling the Norway option. Keep the economic benefits but out of the ridiculous USE side of things. Surely an option that would satisfy most people in the middle. Maybe not the hardline brexiteers or those campaigning against a democratic decision to get a result they want. (Peoples Vote)
But what would be undemocratic about putting the Boles proposal to the people, since it wasn't on the ballot paper in 2016? It could possibly solve things- albeit not everyone will accept it.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:14 pm

Fantastic interview with Tony Blair on PoliticsLive. That will have shifted about 0.5% to Leave in the polls. Andrew Neil skewered him, it caused that much perspiration it almost ruined Blair’s orange make-up. 2m people watching.

Nick Boles is simply not very intelligent. He got plain wrong the statement about the £39bn covering existing obligations. Actually, a OBR paper proves that nearly £20bn is for the transition period. He also lied (or got wrong) about Dan Hannan, who yes originally wanted a Norway deal but now openly says Norway Plus with a customs union would be terrible.

Of the 118 Tory rebels, around 100 want either Canada, No Deal or No Backstop. It’s obvious the way May has to go to avoid wrecking her party. A new leader would have had all this locked down by now, signing a Withdrawal Agreement, paying the money, and then starting to negotiate a free trade deal to avoid the Irish border becoming an issue.
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Re: #politicslive

Post by aggi » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:25 pm

The Tories aren't doing a great job of allaying fears that after Brexit they may look to weaken workers' rights and environmental protections.

Asked to identify areas where compromise might be possible, May’s spokesman pointed to workers’ rights and environmental protection

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Re: #politicslive

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:30 pm

biggles wrote:only by those who respect it! if you are a liberal, socialist, fantasist, gullible etc. basically it writes stuff that its' readers want to read which just goes on to endorse their views and make them feel smug and compassionate. actually, .........that goes the same for most publications [without the compassionate in the main].
I'm not big fan of the Guardian, but the paper has a rightful reputation for integrity (same on a global level for the BBC). You won't find many celebrity stories in it, and although the editorial stance is centre left, it doesn't misrepresent Theresa May's (or anyone else on the right) words in the same way the Mail or the Sun, or Express do so with Corbyn.

The article I linked - although an opinion piece (and I also chuckled at the same thing Darthlaw did) was mainly about the demographic shift, which is undeniable. Old people are dying, and young people are coming of age.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:30 pm

AndrewJB wrote:She can say she won't let it happen. She could do this by cancelling brexit, or postponing it. I'm sure the EU would appreciate, and go along with that.
She can’t do that without an Act of Parliament, which could rewind Article 50. The EU can extend Article 50 but will only do that if they can see a reason to do so and won’t do it indefinitely.

JC doesn’t trust the EU, hence his refusal to accept their assurances over the backstop and demand that it be legally binding and now he refuses to allow anyone in his party to speak with the Government until TM does something she cannot do.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Somethingfishy » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:35 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Fantastic interview with Tony Blair on PoliticsLive. That will have shifted about 0.5% to Leave in the polls. Andrew Neil skewered him, it caused that much perspiration it almost ruined Blair’s orange make-up. 2m people watching.

Nick Boles is simply not very intelligent. He got plain wrong the statement about the £39bn covering existing obligations. Actually, a OBR paper proves that nearly £20bn is for the transition period. He also lied (or got wrong) about Dan Hannan, who yes originally wanted a Norway deal but now openly says Norway Plus with a customs union would be terrible.

Of the 118 Tory rebels, around 100 want either Canada, No Deal or No Backstop. It’s obvious the way May has to go to avoid wrecking her party. A new leader would have had all this locked down by now, signing a Withdrawal Agreement, paying the money, and then starting to negotiate a free trade deal to avoid the Irish border becoming an issue.
Andrew Neill had him on toast. It was a brilliant watch. Denying he was telling the EU leaders to give us a bad deal so that we would be forced to have another vote and may remain. Then he caught him and he said he did want to stop Brexit from within. Gotcha Tony!

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Re: #politicslive

Post by summitclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:36 pm

If i was May i would be tempted to goad corbyn, cable, snp etc to put forward a motion to revoke A50. Labour would not dare. That would stop no deal.

The proposition would be lost. Then go back to the EU and call their bluff on no deal.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Somethingfishy » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:45 pm

AndrewJB wrote:I'm not big fan of the Guardian, but the paper has a rightful reputation for integrity (same on a global level for the BBC). You won't find many celebrity stories in it, and although the editorial stance is centre left, it doesn't misrepresent Theresa May's (or anyone else on the right) words in the same way the Mail or the Sun, or Express do so with Corbyn.

The article I linked - although an opinion piece (and I also chuckled at the same thing Darthlaw did) was mainly about the demographic shift, which is undeniable. Old people are dying, and young people are coming of age.
The demographic thing i find a bit of a red herring to be honest. As Andrew Neill pointed out... about middle age opinions often change. This is why younger people often vote Labour and older ones Conservative. This has been the case for a long while and so it must have happened that as the young got older their voting habits changed. The reasons are most likely due to accumulation of wealth and general life experience. Some people obviously stay affiliated all their lives..often upbringing and parental affiliation come into play. The same can be said of Brexit although it is obviously a shorter term thing.
It wouldn't come to pass if Brexit was a 50 year thing that eventually everyone would more or less be a remainer. It just doesn't work like that.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:03 pm

Its not though. No doubt there are middle aged people slowly becoming more right wing.

But in the context of the Brexit debate, the young vote remain (75%) and those that are dying off vote to leave (75%)

It not only matters, its crucial to how this will play out, neither party can afford to ignore the demographics and the reality if they get this wrong (if you are in any doubt, see Lib Dem vote)

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Re: #politicslive

Post by dpinsussex » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:06 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:PEOPLES VOTE-

The 1st Peoples Vote was won by Leave in June 2016.. The mandate it gave to the government has not been implemented.

If there was a second referendum it would mean in order to have their view enacted , Leave voters would have to win TWO referenda. Remain would only have had to have won ONE.

How is that fair or democratic?
I never thought I would say this but I agree with Ringo on a political thread. :)

I was a staunch remainer for the vote, however democracy said we leave much to my dismay.

Therefore we need to negotiate the best deal we can. Rest assured EU will not let us cherry pick everything we want.
Thiswas always going to have to be a compromise.

Corbyn is playing games for his own gain and not thinking about the wishes of the majority and what is best for the country. He couldn't care about the people he is supposed to be representing, just wants a go at the top job. Selfish individual.

Time for all politicians on all sides to get their acts together and get the best deal we can. If we can't agree then I don't see any other option than to leave with no deal.
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Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:14 pm

If we can't agree a deal then its a national failure that will make Suez look like a cakewalk.

Reservists are being called back into the army in case of a "No Deal" btw.

Which is frankly scary enough in its own right.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by aggi » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:24 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:If we can't agree a deal then its a national failure that will make Suez look like a cakewalk.

Reservists are being called back into the army in case of a "No Deal" btw.

Which is frankly scary enough in its own right.
You need to believe more.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by taio » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:25 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:If we can't agree a deal then its a national failure that will make Suez look like a cakewalk.

Reservists are being called back into the army in case of a "No Deal" btw.

Which is frankly scary enough in its own right.
Why is up to 350 reservists scary? It sounds like reasonable contingency planning to me.

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Re: #politicslive

Post by summitclaret » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:25 pm

The people i have the most respect for are those that voted remain that agree that we should leave. True democrats. Well done you guys.
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Re: #politicslive

Post by Steve-Harpers-perm » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:32 pm

summitclaret wrote:If i was May i would be tempted to goad corbyn, cable, snp etc to put forward a motion to revoke A50. Labour would not dare. That would stop no deal.

The proposition would be lost. Then go back to the EU and call their bluff on no deal.
If I was May I’d stop talking soundbite b@llocks.

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