Russia Invades

[Lowbankclaret]

This info was from listening to CNN a few days ago. I have not verified it anywhere else.

Russia has 6,000 nuclear warheads.

USA has 5,600 nuclear warheads.

[elwaclaret]

Kherson was not the only protests today in Ukraine. NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 30630?s=21

[bfcjg]

Any idea what the gunfire is after? Ukrainian troops firing while the dust settles or Russia opening fire
Putin shooting himself in the foot perhaps.

[elwaclaret]

This info was from listening to CNN a few days ago. I have not verified it anywhere else.

Russia has 6,000 nuclear warheads.

USA has 5,600 nuclear warheads.

I’d take figures like these from CNN with a large dose of salt, to be honest.

[elwaclaret]

Russian’s going for Ukrainian ‘hearts and minds’ during the protest in occupied Berdyansk today NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 79394?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Lawrence Freedman (War Studies -Kings College, London) - It’s Big picture, not individual gains that matters in this war (reacting to New York Times “Russian advances” report (and agreeing with Phillips OBrian’s assessment)

https://twitter.com/lawdavf/status/1505 ... 25889?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Energodar protestors refuse to be intimidated NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 08419?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Turkey reported that the peace talks are at an advanced stage

Look, there are going to be ups and downs from here on in, but Russia has basically thrown 30 years of progress into the bin, along with its reputation as a military power.

They won't get that back in Putins lifetime, and probably not at all

[yTib]

apparently one of putin's conditions are for ukraine to demillitarise.

if ukraine gives in to that what is to stop napoleon invading again in a few years time?

i would resist. resist.

[Lancasterclaret]

apparently one of putin's conditions are for ukraine to demillitarise.

if ukraine gives in to that what is to stop napoleon invading again in a few years time?

i would resist. resist.

It depends on what they mean by "demilitarise"

I don't think Ukraine will take it to mean what Russia wants it to mean, and though that might entail issues in years ahead, no one is going to forget what happened when Russia invaded

[Lowbankclaret]

I’d take figures like these from CNN with a large dose of salt, to be honest.

BBC breakdown of Russias nukes, 5,977.
Although they say 1,500 are either retired or going to be dismantled.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60564123

[Lowbankclaret]

A quick google says we UK have 120 nuclear warheads. As a comparison.

[yTib]

I

don't think Ukraine will take it to mean what Russia wants it to mean, and though that might entail issues in years ahead, no one is going to forget what happened when Russia invaded

whilst i broadly agree that is rather a sentimental viewpoint.

right now folk are dying and if putin feels he can get away with blue bloody murder that is a terrible stain on us all.

how folk retrospectively view russia's actions will not matter to a psychopath like putin.

[Lancasterclaret]

I

whilst i broadly agree that is rather a sentimental viewpoint.

right now folk are dying and if putin feels he can get away with blue bloody murder that is a terrible stain on us all.

how folk retrospectively view russia's actions will not matter to a psychopath like putin.

What I meant is that Russia won't forget what happened - its vaunted army defeated, its air force unable to carry out its missions, its Navy reduced to sheltering in friendly ports while NATO forces cruised outside

That alone will aid Ukraine in its defence in the future, they know they can stop the Russians, and the Russians know it to

Apologies for not being clear

[Vegas Claret]

We can identify War Crimes like never before on security cameras and mobile phone footage - prosecutions should be easiest ever - Stuart Steven’s (advisor to 5 Republican campaigns).

https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/stat ... 52165?s=21

even that.......why haven't the appropriate international authorities ALREADY issued an International arrest warrant for Putin and all his top ranking staff ?

[Lowbankclaret]

even that.......why haven't the appropriate international authorities ALREADY issued an International arrest warrant for Putin and all his top ranking staff ?

They have to collect evidence of the war crimes, which is very difficult in a war zone.

That evidence then needs to be heard in the ICC. Then once you have a verdict you can issue things.

[yTib]

if putin's condition is for ukraine to disarm he will surely add a proviso that he has russian inspectors to oversee it.

i know zelensky is over a barrel but there is no way on earth i would agree to those terms. you don't take a knife to a gunfight.

[yTib]

as for war crimes... there is no way in any universe where putin and his evil puppet labrov will ever stand before a tribunal.

[Lancasterclaret]

if putin's condition is for ukraine to disarm he will surely add a proviso that he has russian inspectors to oversee it.

i know zelensky is over a barrel but there is no way on earth i would agree to those terms. you don't take a knife to a gunfight.

I think we need to see more details

Russia hasn't won here, and everyone knows it, but most recognise that they must have something they could claim as a "win"

That will be key

[yTib]

I think we need to see more details

Russia hasn't won here, and everyone knows it, but most recognise that they must have something they could claim as a "win"

That will be key

agreed. russia will surely seek to save face.

i just hope ukraine doesn't geld itself in the process.

[Colburn_Claret]

apparently one of putin's conditions are for ukraine to demillitarise.

if ukraine gives in to that what is to stop napoleon invading again in a few years time?

i would resist. resist.

There is no way Ukraine are going to agree to that, the man is so untrustworthy.

[Vegas Claret]

...

[Lowbankclaret]

if putin's condition is for ukraine to disarm he will surely add a proviso that he has russian inspectors to oversee it.

i know zelensky is over a barrel but there is no way on earth i would agree to those terms. you don't take a knife to a gunfight.

Please don’t forget, Ukraine signed an agreement to go nuclear free.

Russia signed to say it would never attack.

We the west signed to agree we would defend them if someone attack.

We can see how that’s worked out for them.

Russia has attacked and we haven’t come to their defence. Apart from weapons.

[yTib]

We the west signed to agree we would defend them if someone attack.

that's not true, alas.

[yTib]

in fact i would make ukraine a nato member today. i would give the russians 24 hours to withdraw.

i reckon putin has no bluff to call but i'm guessing the controllers of the nuclear weapons do.

i think now is the time to call time on tyranny and if china doesn't like it tough tits. they need us just as much as we need them.

[Lancasterclaret]

in fact i would make ukraine a nato member today. i would give the russians 24 hours to withdraw.

i reckon putin has no bluff to call but i'm guessing the controllers of the nuclear weapons do.

i think now is the time to call time on tyranny and if china doesn't like it tough tits. they need us just as much as we need them.

Thing is, and I know this is hard, but you've got to look at this from a geo-political standpoint

Russia has completely failed in any of its strategic objectives (it will spin some things as a "win") and has completely collapsed its economic growth an focus of the past thirty years

It will still trade with the West, but the West needs reliable energy/supply partners, and they have proved that they are not even remotely reliable

They are already massively discounting oil to China and India, which are both perfectly happy to take it, but without giving Russia any clout over what they do.

Essentially Russia is heading into being part of the Sinosphere or the Anglosphere. There won't be a Russian sphere.

I can't stress how huge a defeat this is for Putin, and I hope he doesn't realise how big it is, because that will be something he will really struggle with

[yTib]

all good points lancaster but you are a rational person. putin is not.

ukraine and the west should never be in thrall to a tyrant. it might seem romantic but i just can't have it.

i'm in my mid forties but i would take up a gun to defend ukraine.

[Lowbankclaret]

that's not true, alas.

I should do more reading,

[Lancasterclaret]

all good points lancaster but you are a rational person. putin is not.

ukraine and the west should never be in thrall to a tyrant. it might seem romantic but i just can't have it.

i'm in my mid forties but i would take up a gun to defend ukraine.

Yup, I'm being rational on here, but I'm emotionally battered about what is happening to Ukraine

I'll never forgive Russia for this

[yTib]

Yup, I'm being rational on here, but I'm emotionally battered about what is happening to Ukraine

I'll never forgive Russia for this

is it russia or putin and his thug club?

i've heard several people characterise russians as being 'zombified'.

is this an accurate evaluation?

you cited further up nuremburg. were all those flapping ghouls innocent?

[Lancasterclaret]

is it russia or putin and his thug club?

i've heard several people characterise russians as being 'zombified'.

is this an accurate evaluation?

you cited further up nuremburg. were all those flapping ghouls innocent?

Almost certainly not, but how do you punish an entire country?

There were SS Generals walking free down the streets of Hamburg and places like that within five years, partly because of the situation with Russia, but mainly because you couldn't arrest and kill everyone who committed war crimes in WWII

I don't think Putin or his cronies will ever see the inside of an courthouse, but we can hope can't we?

[yTib]

how do you punish an entire country was my point.

putin is the rotter here. the russians are victims as well. brainwashed.

[Lowbankclaret]

Thing is, and I know this is hard, but you've got to look at this from a geo-political standpoint

Russia has completely failed in any of its strategic objectives (it will spin some things as a "win") and has completely collapsed its economic growth an focus of the past thirty years

It will still trade with the West, but the West needs reliable energy/supply partners, and they have proved that they are not even remotely reliable

They are already massively discounting oil to China and India, which are both perfectly happy to take it, but without giving Russia any clout over what they do.

Essentially Russia is heading into being part of the Sinosphere or the Anglosphere. There won't be a Russian sphere.

I can't stress how huge a defeat this is for Putin, and I hope he doesn't realise how big it is, because that will be something he will really struggle with

As I mentioned previously, in agreement to this post.
The UK is going to stop buying all oil and gas from Russia.
The EU intend to reduce by 80% by the end of the year. If they succeed that’s going to dent Russias money coming in.

When all those Russians who own flats and villa’s in the west understand they cannot go again in the foreseeable future and might even lose them because they cannot pay the taxes due to sanctions.

Then there are the people like myself who have now looked at solar on the house. I tried to book a slot for someone to come out, searches are up by 5 times. No slots to come out for a quote.

The sums currently, £8000 outlay, saves £800 a year at current prices. Will be £1600 a year at new prices. Looks a no brainer now.

[Lowbankclaret]

Yup, I'm being rational on here, but I'm emotionally battered about what is happening to Ukraine

I'll never forgive Russia for this

Me too, I hadn’t posted for 24 hours as I was just so upset and to emotional.

[Vegas Claret]

I don't think Putin or his cronies will ever see the inside of an courthouse, but we can hope can't we?

and this is why the authorities need to get on with issuing international arrest warrants for him and his top chiefs - it's a symbolic gesture BUT would mean that the countries they would be able to travel to will be incredibly limited. It's another sanction effectively. There is plenty enough evidence already, it's only a matter of time (again, something Ukrainians don't have)

[Vegas Claret]

Me too, I hadn’t posted for 24 hours as I was just so upset and to emotional.

it's exhausting

[Lowbankclaret]

it's exhausting

The bomb hitting Theater with up to 1200 women and kids meant I had to have a time out. Some are still trapped apparently. Sitting here not being able to do anything just got to me.
My posts would have been irrational.

[elwaclaret]

Peter Craddock-Adams view of Ukraine today

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 53511?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

He's concentrating on the still active fronts today

Kharki'v, Donestk, Mariupol

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1505385093485015041

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Interntional quoting a CNN Interview with President Zelenskiy (not seen full interview for wider context): territory handover is not an option in peace negotiations.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 51074?s=21

[elwaclaret]

LIGHT RELIEF: This must be a Burnley (formerly) made G-Plan kitchen…

https://twitter.com/_smartuk/status/150 ... 60452?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Tractor boys at it again OSINTtech

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 26597?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

Weiss called it stirring the pot !

[Vegas Claret]

don't mind admitting it, this had me in tears. Zelensky is phenomenal
https://twitter.com/Nikolay_Nikolov/sta ... I8H7fppFcw

[bfcjg]

BBC News - War in Ukraine: Anti-war opinions can cost Russians their jobs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60793446
The Russian people will only take so much from Putin.

[bfcjg]

Hopefully this should help stabilise fuel prices.
BBC News - Saudi Aramco ramps up investment to boost production
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60812330

[Vegas Claret]

new Kofman thread
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/statu ... VcUSDuY-SA

[elwaclaret]

The wife of a former Ukraine MP has been caught trying to escape with $28,000,000 in Ukrainian banknotes and Euro 1.3M. Caught by Hungarian border guards. NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 81313?s=21

[elwaclaret]

ELINT : Russia Defence Ministry demand newer to surrendering Muriupol by tomorrow morning, ultimatum.

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status ... 89092?s=21

[elwaclaret]

ELINT Say footage released yesterday of Belarus armour moving up toward Ukraine may be Belarus joining the Russian attack on Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/elintnews/status/15 ... 33988?s=21