Russia Invades

Valerie Insinna - follows up on Vegasclaret’s earlier post - not all “hypersonic” missiles are equal.

https://twitter.com/valerieinsinna/stat ... 30336?s=21

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 9:36 pm

Cubanforever · Post by **Cubanforever** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:02 pm

Russia have broadcast (admitted to their own) that the high ranking Naval Officer Andrei Paly has died in Mariopol and that they are making ultimatums on Ukranian troops in the city to lay down their arms before the early hours of tomorrow....in fact saying that "they'll give free passage to people who want to leave" only after the troops walk out after laying down their arms which is complete blackmail by Russia on innocent people.
I fear Putin is going to do something even worse to Mariopol and justify it to Russia as revenge for the death of the naval guy whilst not allowing Ukranians to leave the city........if only the Russian people knew what he was doing, there would be millions on the streets of Moscow and he'd be strung up by his ankles from a lampost like Mussolini...what a f*****g turd he is

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:07 am

missile strike on shopping mall in Kyiv
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505 ... s2NuCEV9EQ

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 5:00 am

March21st
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent

Ammonia leaks from Sumy chemical plant.

The governor of Sumy Oblast Dmytro Zhyvytsky said on March 21 that ammonia leaked from Sumykhimprom chemical plant at 4:30 a.m. local time as a result of Russian airstrike.........

March 19
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 0513416196

Firthy · Post by **Firthy** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:00 am

Cubanforever wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:02 pm
Russia have broadcast (admitted to their own) that the high ranking Naval Officer Andrei Paly has died in Mariopol and that they are making ultimatums on Ukranian troops in the city to lay down their arms before the early hours of tomorrow....in fact saying that "they'll give free passage to people who want to leave" only after the troops walk out after laying down their arms which is complete blackmail by Russia on innocent people.
I fear Putin is going to do something even worse to Mariopol and justify it to Russia as revenge for the death of the naval guy whilst not allowing Ukranians to leave the city........if only the Russian people knew what he was doing, there would be millions on the streets of Moscow and he'd be strung up by his ankles from a lampost like Mussolini...what a f*****g turd he is

Seriously, he'll only allow civilians to leave if the army in Mariupol surrender. Basically, surrender or we'll keep killing civilians. I get more angry and frustrated everyday and feel totally helpless. How long can the West let this go on for, at some point we have to intervene or stand by and watch Ukraine slowly be destroyed.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:38 am

Rational me here

Russia will be looking at the equipment and troop losses its taking in Mariupol, and then looking at Sumy, at Kharki'v, at Kyi'v, at Dnipro, at basically every Ukrainian town and city and wondering how on earth they win this

Every single minute that any Ukrainian city holds is more damage to Russia

I wouldn't say Ukraine hold all the cards here, but there isn't anything that Russia can do to win this, all they can hope to do is that they can get Ukraine to give them some sort of win

I think the more Russia bombs innocent civilians, the harder Ukraine will resist calls to give Russia that "win", and that would leave Russia in an unwinnable war with its economy in ruins

Putin doesn't survive that I think

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:53 am

Firthy wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:00 am
Seriously, he'll only allow civilians to leave if the army in Mariupol surrender. Basically, surrender or we'll keep killing civilians. I get more angry and frustrated everyday and feel totally helpless. How long can the West let this go on for, at some point we have to intervene or stand by and watch Ukraine slowly be destroyed.

It's cruel but:

1. As mentioned before, intervening more then we currently are risks escalation and perhaps annihilation.
2. By entering a war with Russia, even if it doesn't escalate to nuclear, will lead at least to economic damage to the west, further strengthening China.
3. I think the powers that be in the west are looking at the bigger and longer picture. We are allowing Russia to get bogged down in Ukraine and prolonging their struggle by providing suitable weapons (we are also seeing how the Russian military and their weapons (and ours for that matter - the ones we've given Ukraine) behaves in war time - always useful for military strategists). In the medium term this degrades Russia, at least militarily and economically, probably politically too. The winners here would be the west and China.
4. It's true you could consider a different approach - what happens if Russia succeeds in breaking up or even getting complete control of Ukraine. That will give them a completely destroyed country lacking a large part of its population. Much of that population will have left the country and will be initially a burden on Europe. They also won't be going back home. It will also put Russia on the border of Poland and Romania in particular leading to tensions in those countries. However Russia will have to bare the cost of repairs and bringing its military up to strength again as well as cope with the economic consequences if we keep up sanctions (which of course we may not out of self interest).

Ultimately do we care more about Ukrainians then ourselves? Do you want our people to die to save Ukrainians? Would they do it for us?

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:37 am

There is no benefit that I can see from NATO intervening. It would extend the conflict, not guaranteed to save more lives or prevent displacement and infrastructure damage, while having monumental risks. Already a quarter of the population are displaced, the best thing for those people now is to ensure stability in the country they end up in.

The balance of power in the world is teetering one way then the other, these are tough considerations, care must be taken. Maybe squeezing Russia slowly gives Ukraine the best chance of long term happiness? There has to be a condition to trade with our countries - don’t do this any military action elsewhere other than peacekeeping without a UN resolution, or we cut off trade.

Where does this lead us? Tragically a very long drawn out conflict, the first to be 24/7 on social media which has the power to cause us damage to our mental health. It seems like increasingly it will be cruise missiles and residential area carnage. I’m now keeping the news off, apart from keeping a little abreast from Twitter and the newspaper. I’m certainly keeping my family away from it, while doing what I can charitably.

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:50 am

The drone strikes appear to be incredibly successful for Ukraine, ramp up that attack tenfold and they'll do serious damage to the Russians.

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:52 am

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:07 am
missile strike on shopping mall in Kyiv
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505 ... s2NuCEV9EQ

Johnson’s thinking of popping over there today.

Good luck, mate! Really, really stupid idea.

Firthy · Post by **Firthy** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:56 am

I totally understand the need for the West not to get more involved due to escalation between Russia and the West and the ultimate threat of a nuclear war but it doesn't stop me feeling helpless. I too no longer watch the news on TV, I read this thread and BBC news so can choose what I read and when I read it. The news on TV just keeps repeating the same stories throughout the day. I just hope that when this is all over that Ukraine is still standing and Putin and his cronies get what they deserve, though I doubt they will as they won't leave their country and sanctions against the country and those responsible is probably the best the West can do. I get no satisfaction from the fact that he is ruining Russian lives and making them and their country pariahs, a lot of them are as innocent as the Ukranians and have been brainwashed over the years by the state. There no winners in this war, just losers.

Billy Balfour · Post by **Billy Balfour** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:09 am

Last night, BBC R4 said that China and India are buying Russia oil at discounts up to 25%. Also, Zelensky has lambasted Israel for refusing to sanction Russia. Israel is also refusing to send weapons to Ukraine. I'm not surprised at the first two. Pretty disgusted at the third.

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:34 am

Ammonia leak at chemical plant in Sumy. Interesting.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:40 am

I've just seen a horrible thread on twitter that I won't post on here.

Hundreds of pictures/videos supposedly in the Ukraine where militia groups/national guard whatever you want to call them, are torturing/beating people for not wanting to fight or being Russian civilians.

Certainly puts a different light on it if true, but there were so many it certainly looks true.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:56 am

Give us the link Quick

Look, the key is who and what sort of accounts are sharing it

Be very easy to check out the verification of it

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:18 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:40 am
I've just seen a horrible thread on twitter that I won't post on here.

Hundreds of pictures/videos supposedly in the Ukraine where militia groups/national guard whatever you want to call them, are torturing/beating people for not wanting to fight or being Russian civilians.

Certainly puts a different light on it if true, but there were so many it certainly looks true.

Agree with Lancaster, we need a source on that, there is a lot of false flag information. For example far more about such events behind the Russian lines as separatists take revenge on Ukrainians. Sources are key, so the source itself can be investigated.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:27 pm

I was reading Gary Neville's twitter feed about players shouldn't show their faces after defeat and someone posted it in replies. I know nothing of who has posted it.

Warning not pleasant viewing. https://twitter.com/Youblacksoul/status ... F8NkWb4wAA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:52 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:27 pm
I was reading Gary Neville's twitter feed about players shouldn't show their faces after defeat and someone posted it in replies. I know nothing of who has posted it.

Warning not pleasant viewing. https://twitter.com/Youblacksoul/status ... F8NkWb4wAA

Suspect this has been removed by Twitter as Russian propaganda - just done a search against your link (I cannot directly link as I keep an app version running in the background) but a direct search against the link says the post does not exist.

Middle-agedClaret · Post by **Middle-agedClaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:54 pm

Looks like pro-Russian propaganda
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3 ... -not-smart

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:56 pm

Funnily enough, the NEW YORK TIMES have just tweeted how to avoid innocently spreading misinformation and checks you can perform…

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1505 ... 62791?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:02 pm

REUTERS : NATO’s Vulnerable Eastern flank

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 74145?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:04 pm

Middle-agedClaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:54 pm
Looks like pro-Russian propaganda
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3 ... -not-smart

Great find. Seems to confirm.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:05 pm

I have just looked at the account and is certainly pro Russia.

I didn't want to look at any more of the stuff to be honest, but it's certainly one sided. Not that any of us would be able to tell the difference if they all speak Russian.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:06 pm

REUTERS: (Shock/horror) Russia saying little progress in peace talks.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 35282?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:15 pm

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/ ... 8625836032

Think its safe to say that Russia is cracking down in the towns and cities they occupy

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:18 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:04 pm
Great find. Seems to confirm.

Good read that.
I love the, don't attribute to malice, what can be explained by stupidity.
I shall use that.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:22 pm

Worth pointing out as well that if stuff like that pops up in a completely random place (ie Gary Nevilles feed) then its certainly going to be fake

The Russian Government and Embassies are sharing this stuff, because they know (from past experience) that people will share it, despite all the warnings from everyone not to

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:27 pm

Phillip OBrian - thoughts on the latest MoD report from Ukraine

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 44611?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:34 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:06 pm
REUTERS: (Shock/horror) Russia saying little progress in peace talks.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 35282?s=21

I would say it is because Russia has not yet realised that they can ask for what Putin wants, but Ukraine don't need to agree to it

I would also say (tentatively) that the only problem is what Russia wants in regards to Ukrainian territory, and if they are willing to go somewhere on that, then there would be a good chance of peace

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:41 pm

Ukrainian Volunteers are hand rolling cigarettes for the troops - (just like prisons, one of the main forms of currency for fighting men) - they are rolling 30k per day. The second picture - Swastika on a red star reads: Nazi = Ruscists.

https://twitter.com/imatviyishyn/status ... 99682?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:48 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:34 pm
I would say it is because Russia has not yet realised that they can ask for what Putin wants, but Ukraine don't need to agree to it

I would also say (tentatively) that the only problem is what Russia wants in regards to Ukrainian territory, and if they are willing to go somewhere on that, then there would be a good chance of peace

Agree, but therein is the problem - Ukraine again reiterated over the weekend they will not agree to losing a yard of Ukrainian territory. I would say quite rightly, and I agree with them also that given Russian aggression, it is Russia that needs to pull out of Crimea at the end of negotiations, too and return it to its rightful owners.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:51 pm

NEXTA: Russian fighter- bomber invades Polish airspace after Poland offers to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine. Though this awaits confirmation by either Polish or NATO authorities, the report points out.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 22208?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:53 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:48 pm
Agree, but therein is the problem - Ukraine again reiterated over the weekend they will not agree to losing a yard of Ukrainian territory. I would say quite rightly, and I agree with them also that given Russian aggression, it is Russia that needs to pull out of Crimea at the end of negotiations, too and return it to its rightful owners.

I think Ukraine are probably quite willing to give the Crimea, but not Luhansk and Donestk oblasts

I can't see Russia giving up Crimea, and I can't see how giving up the Crimea by Russia could count as a win for Russia (however you spin it)

That rally in Moscow explicatively stated that Crimea was Russian

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:57 pm

Phillips OBrian - Passing of Mariupol ‘surrender demand’ and what it means (was it an empty threat) - Mariupol defenders, have a very different plan.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 56354?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:01 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:53 pm
I think Ukraine are probably quite willing to give the Crimea, but not Luhansk and Donestk oblasts

I can't see Russia giving up Crimea, and I can't see how giving up the Crimea by Russia could count as a win for Russia (however you spin it)

That rally in Moscow explicatively stated that Crimea was Russian

Agree Crimea could be a negotiation, but it ha never been recognised officially that Russia had any right to be there by the West - and it clearly offers Russia so much that I think it would be a big ‘ask’ given Russia’s continued rhetoric.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:04 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:01 pm
Agree Crimea could be a negotiation, but it ha never been recognised officially that Russia had any right to be there by the West - and it clearly offers Russia so much that I think it would be a big ‘ask’ given Russia’s continued rhetoric.

Yeah, get all that

But its only part of Ukraine due to an administration change in the old USSR

The big sticking point with it is that Russia can (and will) use it to strangle Ukrainian towns and cities in the Sea of Azov

There would have to be some pretty solid guarantees to Ukraine about access through the Kerch Straits

It would be interesting to see what Ukraine are asking for that is for sure

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:09 pm

The Critic looks at Russia’s big picture - and why Ukraine is proving Russia’s ‘bridge too far’

https://twitter.com/thecriticmag/status ... 82785?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:20 pm

Garry Kasparov - giving a yard to Russia in Ukraine will only feed Putin’s war lust.

https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1 ... 72291?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:28 pm

The ECONOMIST - Series on the Stalinization of Russia: Attacks failure following Putin’s catastrophic error make Russia vulnerable to panic and an increased danger to the West.

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status ... 15778?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:30 pm

ELINT - Ukraine issues country wide air attack alert

https://twitter.com/elintnews/status/15 ... 06211?s=21

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:32 pm

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/20/euro ... m=referral
I like this.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:33 pm

BBC - Hoax calls to cabinets ministers are from Russia.

https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1505 ... 24960?s=21

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:33 pm

this is interesting, for well over a week you couldn't track the tankers etc, just checked this morning and all are visible (as are some fighters) - there will be a point behind that for sure from NATO