European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

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thatdberight
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by thatdberight » Tue May 28, 2019 1:20 pm

nil_desperandum wrote: Labour is vehemently opposed to a "no deal" brexit
This bit is absolutely true.
nil_desperandum wrote:... so that's at least 55% in total opposed to the official Brexit Party position. I don't see how you can argue with those statistics.
I think it's dangerous to map "Voted Labour" to "Agree with their position on 'No deal'" that way. Clearly, yes, that 15% includes lots of people who think that way but I don't think you can take them all as read. Unless you give people a direct correlation between their vote and action, such extreme extrapolation is dangerous.

We're still in a very fluid situation. As a one-off example, I live with a 'Remain' voter. They are quite clear that we should leave having had a referendum. They would veer towards a softer version if they had their way. If pushed to choose between 'Remain' and 'No Deal', they'll take 'No Deal'. Reading that level of complexity from party votes isn't easy.
Last edited by thatdberight on Tue May 28, 2019 1:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue May 28, 2019 1:23 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Further up the thread I remarked about how often these rules are broken by different countries, who perhaps see it in their national interest to do so when they do, or believe their actions will find their way through the loopholes (see the links below). And there is nothing to stop a country from nationalising parts of its economy. Read these links for yourself and you'll see there are ways in which the government can direct investment into the economy without falling foul of EU state aid rules. As one link shows, Britain uses legitimate state aid less than a quarter as much as Germany does, and nearly half of France's total. Even then, the EU can not stop us from breaking their rules on state aid. There is no EU bureaucrat to physically or otherwise prevent us from doing so. There was no letter from them saying; "we hear you're considering state aid, so we're telling you you can't" They can only look into it afterwards. Far from being correct, your statement; "EU says no can do" isn't. It would have to be changed to; "did you do?"

Far from being pushed around on this issue we are likely to be the country that pushed strongest for restrictive state aid rules.

https://www.out-law.com/en/topics/eu--c ... state-aid/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.ippr.org/research/publicati ... and-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Back to reality.

The government listened to its legal advisors.

They said.

"The EU says - no can do, UK "

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Swizzlestick » Tue May 28, 2019 1:24 pm

He's like a robot.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue May 28, 2019 1:56 pm

Swizzlestick wrote:He's like a robot.

I'm now quoting directly from the actual letter sent to the government from its legal advisors.

"We cannot demonstrate the necessary commerciality required by State Aid Law to provide such support"

In other words , perhaps "simplistic", The EU says, "No can do , UK"

"There is no evidence that any earlier funding options involving government would have been lawful either"

In other words , The EU says, "No can do , UK"

"It would be unlawful to provide a guarantee or loan"

In other words , The EU says, "No can do , UK"

"We do not believe there is currently any level of investment government could make ( above the State Aid de minis of €200000 that could be deemed commercial and so legal"

In other words , The EU says, "No can do , UK"

It was not possible to fund a traditional loan financing that would be deemed to be successfully commercial to meet the State Aid commerciality threshold"

In other words , The EU says, "No can do , UK"

Your analogy with the axe and the neighbour is irrelevant if you simply look at what I'd said. Which simply saying the EU will not allow it. To use your analogy. You could if you wanted, axe your neighbour in the head. But by your own admission, and, mixing analogies, run the risk of all your other neighbours coming to you a axing you. Nevertheless, you're still forbidden, even if you go ahead and pay the consequences after. The EU is still saying, " No can do, UK"

Thanks for posting the tweet-

https://mobile.twitter.com/SimonClarkeM ... 1516826626" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It proves my "simplistic" point to be accurate and correct and concurs with what Dr Ruth Bender, Associate Professor of Corporate Financial Strategy, said when she was interviewed on Radio 5 Live Breakfast show on 31st March.

"Do EU rules prevent state aid to save British Steel?

"Unfortunately, yes. The fact that all the economic factors go against the UK steel industry is not relevant, nor is the potentially devastating impact on the wider local economy were it to close. The EU has already ruled on this: in January 2016 the competition commissioner ruled that the Belgian government had illegally provided €211m to steel companies in one of its depressed regions, and ordered that the money be repaid. She also announced an investigation into €2bn of similar aid given by the Italian government to support its steel industry."

"The EU takes the view that State aid cannot be used if it distorts competition, and that EU regional funding is available to help with the social consequences of closing down industries that are uncompetitive."

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Greenmile » Tue May 28, 2019 2:40 pm

Damo wrote:For greenmiles sake, can you clarify exactly how many pundits?
Looks like “generally” is another word you need to add to your vocabulary, along with “some”. Maybe try an online dictionary.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Damo » Tue May 28, 2019 2:52 pm

Greenmile wrote:Looks like “generally” is another word you need to add to your vocabulary, along with “some”. Maybe try an online dictionary.
Ah, you are ok with that one are you?
I would have expected you to be banal enough to want clarification whether all pundits thought that way, or if all pundits thought that way most of the time.
I'm guessing you dont have a point you are unable to counter

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by AndyClaret » Tue May 28, 2019 3:16 pm

According to Lord Ashcrofts poll after the EU elections of those who voted it split 52% brexit, 48% remain, who knew !

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Tue May 28, 2019 3:23 pm

AndyClaret wrote:According to Lord Ashcrofts poll after the EU elections of those who voted it split 52% brexit, 48% remain, who knew !

52 to 48 ? Another draw then

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by thatdberight » Tue May 28, 2019 3:45 pm

AndyClaret wrote:According to Lord Ashcrofts poll after the EU elections of those who voted it split 52% brexit, 48% remain, who knew !
Source?

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by aggi » Tue May 28, 2019 4:02 pm

A few interesting graphics from the Lord Ashcroft polls https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/05/m ... new-party/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Where votes have gone from the votes in 2017

Image

How Leave and Remain voters voted:

Image

How people will vote in the next general election

Image
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue May 28, 2019 4:02 pm

AndyClaret wrote:According to Lord Ashcrofts poll after the EU elections of those who voted it split 52% brexit, 48% remain, who knew !
Really not sure how he can come up with that figure based on the raw data.
If you were to say that Conservative and Labour are still "pro-brexit" parties, (but opposed to "no deal"), then it would be roughly 60 / 40 for brexit.
There isn't any way you can manipulate those figures to get a 52 / 48 split.
The only thing that's reasonably clear is, that based on a very low turnout - approx 34% favour a "no deal" brexit, approx 40% want to stop brexit, and we're not entirely sure what the other 25% or so voted for. One might assume that the faithful Tory voters back May's deal?, and that the Labour vote is broadly pro-a Customs union / single market "soft" brexit, but it's really pretty hard to judge why people voted Tory or Labour since their policies aren't clear.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by AndyClaret » Tue May 28, 2019 4:07 pm

thatdberight wrote:Source?
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/statu ... 9343118337" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

also makes the point that just because you voted Lib Dem, Plaid, SNP or Green, doesn't mean you don't support brexit.

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/statu ... 3872685058" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And this...

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/11 ... 9026388992" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Greenmile » Tue May 28, 2019 5:21 pm

Damo wrote:Ah, you are ok with that one are you?
I would have expected you to be banal enough to want clarification whether all pundits thought that way, or if all pundits thought that way most of the time.
I'm guessing you dont have a point you are unable to counter
Given the context in which it was used, the word “generally” gave me that information (ie most, but not all).

Look, if this carries on, I might have to start charging you for the English lessons.

Until then, though, I’ll just keep correcting you when make statements of all of a group of people when they only actually apply to some of that group.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by thatdberight » Tue May 28, 2019 5:22 pm

AndyClaret wrote:https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/statu ... 9343118337

also makes the point that just because you voted Lib Dem, Plaid, SNP or Green, doesn't mean you don't support brexit.

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/statu ... 3872685058" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And this...

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/11 ... 9026388992" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Thank you. Although still just a poll that's at least better evidence than some of the wishful thinking we see on here. Fascinating that 1% of Brexit Party voters want to Remain and that significant numbers if LibDem supporters wish to leave.

So on top of everything else we'll have to layer complete stupidity and deliberately answering incorrectly to skew polls. I confess I'm guilty of that and I do believe it's more a Conservative / Leave supporter thing, the logic being:
1) There was a reluctance to admit to either of those views - even to a canvasser (this is now a recognised issue although it may only be temporary) which led to...
2) Unexpectedly good results for those views when the real poll happened which was...
3) Interpreted by some (not me) as the polling and media organisations being biased and trying to set an agenda which led to...
4) Some people deciding to lie about their intentions because... because why not?

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 28, 2019 5:29 pm

Dunno if this helps, but I remember seeing a survey (which I can't find sadly) in which you can probably safely put 30-40% of SNP voters in the leave camp as well.

No idea for Plaid, but imagine it would be similar.

Course, the economic arguments for an SNP supporter who wants to leave the UK AND the EU are mind bogglingly bad, but hey ho, thats the price that some see as perfectly willing to pay.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by thatdberight » Tue May 28, 2019 5:41 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Dunno if this helps, but I remember seeing a survey (which I can't find sadly) in which you can probably safely put 30-40% of SNP voters in the leave camp as well.

No idea for Plaid, but imagine it would be similar.

Course, the economic arguments for an SNP supporter who wants to leave the UK AND the EU are mind bogglingly bad, but hey ho, thats the price that some see as perfectly willing to pay.
That might explain why SNP only got the same % in these recent elections as at the 2017 GE. Probably bled some of their Leave supporters and picked up some others who backed their Remain stance.

I'd still be minded to count the obvious parties as all 'Remain' but it does show that the Brexit party is the only % you can 99% map to Remain or Leave. The benefit of having literally f*** all in the folder marked "Other Policies", I guess.

If 15% of those LibDem voters actually want to leave, we should just agree now that trying to interpret the Labour/Con vote is 100% guesswork and with that being 25% of those who bothered voting, we should stop talking about it.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue May 28, 2019 5:46 pm

thatdberight wrote:That might explain why SNP only got the same % in these recent elections as at the 2017 GE. Probably bled some of their Leave supporters and picked up some others who backed their Remain stance.

I'd still be minded to count the obvious parties as all 'Remain' but it does show that the Brexit party is the only % you can 99% map to Remain or Leave. The benefit of having literally f*** all in the folder marked "Other Policies", I guess.

If 15% of those LibDem voters actually want to leave, we should just agree now that trying to interpret the Labour/Con vote is 100% guesswork and with that being 25% of those who bothered voting, we should stop talking about it.
I think we can all vaguely agree the above, so long as we also assume that not every single Brexit Party voter wants a "No deal" brexit. Some will simply be a protest vote and others will see it as the only choice to get any sort of brexit, even though they would prefer, - "a good deal"

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by bfcjg » Tue May 28, 2019 5:54 pm

Be interesting to see how many under 25s actually voted as a percentage of the turnout and how they voted. That age group has been the most vocal about being shafted by older bigots.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Quickenthetempo » Tue May 28, 2019 6:16 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:I think we can all vaguely agree the above, so long as we also assume that not every single Brexit Party voter wants a "No deal" brexit. Some will simply be a protest vote and others will see it as the only choice to get any sort of brexit, even though they would prefer, - "a good deal"
Most would like a good deal, but we keep getting told there isn't one and this the best we could hope for.

Every week we frustratingly stay in, the more No deal gets popular.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by thatdberight » Tue May 28, 2019 6:46 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:I think we can all vaguely agree the above, so long as we also assume that not every single Brexit Party voter wants a "No deal" brexit. Some will simply be a protest vote and others will see it as the only choice to get any sort of brexit, even though they would prefer, - "a good deal"
I agree - it's perceived as a free hit and if 1% of Brexit Party voters want to remain there must be all kinds of views on there. If you wanted "definitely leave but not 'no deal'" I guess Conservative was the obvious choice but recognising that's anathema to some voters, yes, that's at least one group who voted Brexit Party but might not take the nuclear option if it came to it.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by TVC15 » Tue May 28, 2019 8:59 pm

bfcjg wrote:Be interesting to see how many under 25s actually voted as a percentage of the turnout and how they voted. That age group has been the most vocal about being shafted by older bigots.
I can’t remember the exact numbers but the younger population was the lowest turnout demographic in the election - this part of the population voted remain (majority).
It was a bit rich of the young ones to then blame the older generation (who mostly voted leave) for “ruining” their future. Though I do also remember a lot of the young first time voters commenting on how it was difficult to register to vote for first timers for the referendum.

If there is a second referendum then I think there will be a better turnout from this demographic - which will also be inflated by the number of new people who have reached voting age in the last few years. There will also be a number or the older generation who will have passed away since 2016.

Not sure of the net impact of these changes but it could be an important factor on the overall result.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 28, 2019 9:04 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:Most would like a good deal, but we keep getting told there isn't one and this the best we could hope for.

Every week we frustratingly stay in, the more No deal gets popular.
I get the frustration 100%, but I don't get the enthusiasm for a "No Deal"

One the more frustrating things from someone like me's point of view is that this is being regarded as an something to welcome, which just isn't backed up.

"No Deal" after the Withdrawal agreement I get, but to pretend we can just waltz off without having any issues is problematic to put it mildly, and biggest failure we have had is the unwillingness of all to explain this properly.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by If it be your will » Tue May 28, 2019 9:34 pm

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Last edited by If it be your will on Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Quickenthetempo » Tue May 28, 2019 10:10 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I get the frustration 100%, but I don't get the enthusiasm for a "No Deal"

One the more frustrating things from someone like me's point of view is that this is being regarded as an something to welcome, which just isn't backed up.

"No Deal" after the Withdrawal agreement I get, but to pretend we can just waltz off without having any issues is problematic to put it mildly, and biggest failure we have had is the unwillingness of all to explain this properly.
I just don't think it will be as bad you do.

Airbus have today come out and said they will be staying in the UK whatever happens with Brexit.

We just keep being lied to for political gain.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by If it be your will » Tue May 28, 2019 10:16 pm

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Last edited by If it be your will on Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 28, 2019 10:28 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:I just don't think it will be as bad you do.

Airbus have today come out and said they will be staying in the UK whatever happens with Brexit.

We just keep being lied to for political gain.
You'll need more than one company saying that to convince anyone, and I certainly wouldn't trust any multi-national on this beyond short term.

If the country is in the hands of 120,000 Conservative voters (over half over 65, 98% of all of them white) and they want a "No Deal" regardless, then things are going to get worse before they get better.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Quickenthetempo » Tue May 28, 2019 10:41 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:You'll need more than one company saying that to convince anyone, and I certainly wouldn't trust any multi-national on this beyond short term.

If the country is in the hands of 120,000 Conservative voters (over half over 65, 98% of all of them white) and they want a "No Deal" regardless, then things are going to get worse before they get better.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. Better men than me have tried and failed.

We have had 1000s of pages of Brexit talk with people trying to convince others to change their mind.

And not one person has budged an inch.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by If it be your will » Tue May 28, 2019 10:47 pm

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Last edited by If it be your will on Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
This user liked this post: Lancasterclaret

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 28, 2019 11:11 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:I'm not trying to convince anyone. Better men than me have tried and failed.

We have had 1000s of pages of Brexit talk with people trying to convince others to change their mind.

And not one person has budged an inch.
Trust me Quick, its not better men. I prefer people with evidence rather than people telling me a load of crap based on their personal vision of Brexit, or just complete mentalists with chips on their shoulder because I live more than a stones throw away from Burnley.

And I think you are wrong, people have shifted but I couldn't tell you if it would make a difference.

We are going to find out though.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 28, 2019 11:13 pm

If it be your will wrote:Here you go, AndrewJB. I managed to dig it out. Grace Blakeley (also of the IPPR) putting forward the Lexit case on This Week a couple of months ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etolOksmsLo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(There's something here for everyone, every position is represented within 15 minutes. It's decent viewing.)

Edit - and, if you're tempted by Lexit, this is Grace Blakeley again: https://novaramedia.com/2018/06/24/fina ... resist-it/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
She was on that Frankie Boyle thing. I have to be honest and thought she was really attractive (which isn't how you are supposed to do these debates!)

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed May 29, 2019 8:27 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:You'll need more than one company saying that to convince anyone, and I certainly wouldn't trust any multi-national on this beyond short term.

If the country is in the hands of 120,000 Conservative voters (over half over 65, 98% of all of them white) and they want a "No Deal" regardless, then things are going to get worse before they get better.

That is one of the main issues, people were very quick to post on here when Airbus may have left, they didn't need other companies to say the same before it was put on here. When they come out and state they aren't moving it comes with a caveat that more is needed. Those who are embedded on either side won't budge an inch which is exactly why we are where we are today.

It isn't a crime to be over 60 and white in this country.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 29, 2019 8:57 am

Who said it was?

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by aggi » Wed May 29, 2019 9:09 am

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:That is one of the main issues, people were very quick to post on here when Airbus may have left, they didn't need other companies to say the same before it was put on here. When they come out and state they aren't moving it comes with a caveat that more is needed. Those who are embedded on either side won't budge an inch which is exactly why we are where we are today.

It isn't a crime to be over 60 and white in this country.
I hear they send you to jail if you say you're English though.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed May 29, 2019 10:16 am

aggi wrote:I hear they send you to jail if you say you're English though.

True and also there will be no electricity for their 42" hd tv's in the cells if we leave the EU.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 29, 2019 10:22 am

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:
It isn't a crime to be over 60 and white in this country.
Had to nip out so the answer was more glib than I intended.

That age bracket and ethnic group won't have problems with the mortgage, jobs, money, schools, they will believe that only free loaders use food banks etc etc etc

Its not exactly a balanced view of the UK problems

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by aggi » Wed May 29, 2019 11:32 am

If it be your will wrote:So you've been researching, then?? I remember reading that IPPR report myself. The IPPR is a really good resource, because it seems to have some fiercely intelligent people in it, with a range of views. I liked that report, I really did - it was fair and thoughtful (compared to the tosh The Guardian often puts out whenever the EU is involved). I imagine you and I could debate aspects of it, and the authors' interpretations, all day. I'm not dismissing it by any stretch, but it was written by remain supporting members (Tom Kibasi writes the more intelligent 'remain' articles for the Guardian). There are some Lexiters at the IPPR, too (Grace Blakely seems to be everywhere at the moment). I'd quite like the Lexiters at the IPPR to have a go at a similar article.

But I bet, having read all this, there's a small part of you is thinking "Hmm. The Lexiters do have a point, don't they? I'm not persuaded, but they do at least have a point." As such, I'm hoping you can see the challenges facing the Labour front bench when it comes to what on earth they should do with the brexit mess. And why Corbyn only ever gave the EU 7/10.

(It's actually the Public Procurement Rules I find most objectionable, not the state-aid rules. But I'm sure you'll move onto those soon.)
On the state aid and the labour manifesto I came across this article http://renewal.org.uk/blog/eu-law-is-no ... -programme" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and a reasonably lengthy detailed analysis behind it http://renewal.org.uk/files/Tarrant_Bio ... pdated.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I've only read the shorter article but their view (and they seem eminently qualified to comment) is that the state aid rules wouldn't have caused any issues with the labour manifesto.

Personally I don't have great issues with state aid rules (as it appears is the case for the UK in general given how low our state aid is compared to other countries in Europe). I spend a reasonable amount of time in the US working and some crazy stuff goes on with aid there with individual states bidding against each other to attract companies (Amazon and Apple are recent examples). I wouldn't like to end with a similar scenario here.

The other obvious issue is whether we'll adjust our stance on state aid after we leave the EU. Aside from the fact that it's something we haven't historically done, there is also the WTO issue and whether any future trade deal with the EU would contain similar rules.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by aggi » Wed May 29, 2019 11:42 am

If it be your will wrote:Great charts. But what do you make of these charts? I've been testing various narratives I could come up with, and none can be conclusively supported by these charts - loads of conflicting information whichever theory you try to apply to them. The only take home messages I could find were "The Lib Dem recovery might prove reasonably resilient" and "The Brexit Party might well be here to stay" (and, of course, that ChangeUK will vanish in a puff of smoke.)

Did you conclude anything?
I'd say the main conclusion is that it isn't as simple as people often try and make out. There are a myriad of reasons why people vote and how their vote progresses.

A few interesting things that struck me were how although a fair chunk of the Conservative vote went to the Brexit party a lower (than I expected) amount went to the lib dems.

The other noticeable thing was how few votes Labour lost to the Brexit party, they lost more to the Greens than the Brexit Party and even more to the Lib Dems. That suggests to me that they may want to soften their stance on Brexit, which may have been happening given the noises around the confirmatory vote in the past few days.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Caballo » Wed May 29, 2019 12:35 pm

aggi wrote:
The other noticeable thing was how few votes Labour lost to the Brexit party, they lost more to the Greens than the Brexit Party and even more to the Lib Dems. That suggests to me that they may want to soften their stance on Brexit, which may have been happening given the noises around the confirmatory vote in the past few days.
I suggests to me that the polled people in the south.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by If it be your will » Thu May 30, 2019 1:04 am

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Last edited by If it be your will on Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Erasmus » Thu May 30, 2019 8:25 am

To If It Be Your Will. I accept the points you make about membership of the EU preventing the British government from undertaking the type of state intervention that would be enormously beneficial to the people of this country. It would be ideal but I think the chances of that happening are very slim. What is far more likely is that if we leave the EU the Tories will take the opportunity to move towards further deregulation and erosion of workers' rights that are currently guaranteed by EU law.

As a comparison, there can be no doubt that Michael Foot was a finer man than Tony Blair and wanted to put in place policies that would have been highly beneficial for the poorest in society. However, in actuality Blair did more for those social groups than Michael Foot ever did, simply because he got elected.

It's the same with Jeremy Corbyn. It's notable that a lot of people on this board condemn Jeremy Corbyn in the strongest terms but none of them ever address the policies we wants to introduce, which would be highly beneficial for the country. However, the merits of his policies are irrelevant because I can't see how he will ever get elected.

The point is we have to settle for second best because it is substantially better than the unfettered Tories who will, as always, cut taxes for the rich by running down the public services. So we need a 'soft Labour' that is capable of winning an election and remaining in the EU as a second best that is still better than what the Tories will probably do if we leave the EU.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by summitclaret » Thu May 30, 2019 9:13 am

There was a chart shown on Peston last night that extrapolated the euro poll results to a GE. It had the Brexit Party winning a landslide with 414 seats. Labour on 67 amd the Tories with 1 seat. I know that would not happen, but it ought to.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 30, 2019 9:54 am

summitclaret wrote:There was a chart shown on Peston last night that extrapolated the euro poll results to a GE. It had the Brexit Party winning a landslide with 414 seats. Labour on 67 amd the Tories with 1 seat. I know that would not happen, but it ought to.
A Party that I'll remind you all doesn't have anything but one policy, and has one leader, who can't be removed.

But yeah, thats not important at all.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by aggi » Thu May 30, 2019 10:33 am

summitclaret wrote:There was a chart shown on Peston last night that extrapolated the euro poll results to a GE. It had the Brexit Party winning a landslide with 414 seats. Labour on 67 amd the Tories with 1 seat. I know that would not happen, but it ought to.
Polls reckon they'll lose about 50% of their voters for a general election. Obviously where they lose those votes will impact on how it translates to seats. What they actually do now they've been elected will probably also impact. Will they develop some policies, who will they get into bed with, will they fade into obscurity (I imagine Farage will keep the public interest up, even if his party isn't actually doing anything), etc.

The biggest factors for them though are probably who becomes PM (I imagine Boris will get a lot of votes from them) and what progress is actually made on Brexit.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by dsr » Thu May 30, 2019 10:35 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:A Party that I'll remind you all doesn't have anything but one policy, and has one leader, who can't be removed.

But yeah, thats not important at all.
As Donald Trump found out, you don't need to be brilliant to win if your opponent is abysmal.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 30, 2019 10:40 am

dsr wrote:As Donald Trump found out, you don't need to be brilliant to win if your opponent is abysmal.
I wonder how long this will be unimportant though?

He's already said that UKIP went south because the members started having daft ideas.

And he's got 5 million people voting for him already, so why would he change that?

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by If it be your will » Thu May 30, 2019 11:13 am

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Last edited by If it be your will on Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Erasmus » Thu May 30, 2019 2:27 pm

Maybe it is an age thing but I have grown far more pragmatic over the years. Much as I despise Blair, mainly for the war in Iraq, it is undeniable that his governments did reverse the Tory policies of running down public services. The situation is desperate again now after years of ideological austerity and something has to be done very soon to save people from poverty, deprivation, poor education and unnecessary death. I don't care who the people are who do this or even what their ideology is, but something has to be done to stop the way this government is pandering to the rich at the expense of the poor.

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Imploding Turtle » Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:46 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:This is all good fun, but isn't solving anything.

If anyone can tell me of a different solution than a 2nd ref that will sort this I'm all ears.
Damo wrote:Leave the EU immediately. On the default, legal setting

Doctor: I'm diagnosing you with bone pain. Here's some painkillers for the bone pain.
Patient: Thanks. I hope this ends the pain

**a week later**

Patient: These pain killers for bone pain didn't work. Maybe it's not bone pain but actually muscle pain. Can you do another diagnosis thingy?
Doctor: I'm afraid i cannot rediagnose you. But we must end this pain. Here, take this gun and shoot yourself in the head. That will end your pain.
Patient: I feel like that has some side-effects that might be avoided by just rediagnos...
Doctor: The decision has been made and we must obey the original diagnosis.

**6 months later**

Doctor: Your rehabilitation is going well considering you lost so much of your brain since your treatment.
Patient: Yes. I can almost wipe my own drool from my chin now.
Doctor: Well, have a good day.
Patient: Oh, i plan to. It's the EU referendum today and i'm about to take back our sovrin.. slovering... slith... our borders!

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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:31 am

There is a video of Farage saying "Leaving the EU does not solve our problems"

He's normally very wrong, but he's spot on with that.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

Post by tiger76 » Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:10 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:There is a video of Farage saying "Leaving the EU does not solve our problems"

He's normally very wrong, but he's spot on with that.
Leaving the EU in itself doesn't solve our problems,but the onus for finding solutions will fall at the feet of the UK government of whichever colour.

For the first time in a generation UK politicians will have to take responsibility for the state of the country,they can't blame the Brussels bureaucrats if they balls up.

And crucially if they aren't up to the job the UK electorate will have the chance of kicking their butts out.

This might be why so many are worried,for a change they'll have to work for their generous pay and expenses.
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