Gary Lineker

[CoolClaret]

I think 99% of people don’t give a ******** what a fully fledged grown up does with their body. You want to transition and stuff go for it.

It stops when kids with underdeveloped brains have what could be fleeting feelings almost encouraged into making irreversible decisions and also when the rights of women, that historically speaking have only just had the same as men are being infringed from an extremely fringe section of society, that we still don’t fully understand about.

Expecting women to have to put up with it is irresponsible

[CoolClaret]

This is a lie. You're just telling/repeating lies.

Well it’s not is it. They exist, it happens. Plenty of testimonies

[Greenmile]

Ah ok that’s actually helpful, as I suspect this is where aggi was getting the wrong end of the stick.I have a great deal of empathy for anyone is either pre-op or post-op. When the GRA (I think I called it the GRR the other day grrr) was introduced this was exactly who it was aimed at. But I think it’s a common misconception that trans women fall into one of these categories. In fact, what we are seeing now is an increasing numbers of trans women who have no intention whatsoever of having any kind of op. Hence the increasing difficulty of knowing who is a predator and who just wants to live their best life.

So you have no interest in showing any empathy to trans people then? Thanks for clearing that up - your post from last night did sow some seeds of doubt, but now here you are smearing them all as potential predators.

[CoolClaret]

Some of Labour/the left being hellbent on this **** and refusing to do simple stuff like explaining what a woman is, is what will cause the tories to win another election and further continue to royally f*** the country.

Can we just fixate on the things that actually make a difference.

[SocialistClaret]

Well it’s not is it. They exist, it happens. Plenty of testimonies

45% - The percentage of trans people aged 19 and below who try to kill themselves

1% - The percentage of people who have any level of regret transitioning.


smh

[SocialistClaret]

Some of Labour/the left being hellbent on this **** and refusing to do simple stuff like explaining what a woman is, is what will cause the tories to win another election and further continue to royally f*** the country.

Can we just fixate on the things that actually make a difference.

I'm trying to fixate on something that actually matters. Healthcare for trans people.

Why are you talking about "What is a woman?". Why are you bringing that question up, out of nowhere, instead of talking about actual healthcare? Why are you fixating on that question so much that it'll just pop into your head when someone else is making a healthcare point?

It is YOU, and transphobes, who keep bringing that question up instead of talking about the actual issue.

[Greenmile]

Some of Labour/the left being hellbent on this **** and refusing to do simple stuff like explaining what a woman is, is what will cause the tories to win another election and further continue to royally f*** the country.

Can we just fixate on the things that actually make a difference.

As far as I can tell, the only person on this thread who has suggested that “this ****” will affect the way they vote is android, and I wouldn’t really class them as “Labour / the left”.

It’s the Tories (eg 30p Lee) who want to make the next election about culture wars like this (and the small boats), as they know it’s their only (small) hope of not being annihilated at the next GE.

[CoolClaret]

45% - The percentage of trans people aged 19 and below who try to kill themselves

1% - The percentage of people who have any level of regret transitioning.


smh

1% from a study of 8,000

That’s definitive isn’t it - not to mention it’s not long term analysis -

You scale that up to a substantial number say a million and that’s 10K regrets - do you think that’s acceptable?

[CoolClaret]

As far as I can tell, the only person on this thread who has suggested that “this ****” will affect the way they vote is android, and I wouldn’t really class them as “Labour / the left”.

It’s the Tories (eg 30p Lee) who want to make the next election about culture wars like this (and the small boats), as they know it’s their only (small) hope of not being annihilated at the next GE.

That’s it - I’m suggesting that the tories will blow topics like this up and will win a ton of votes from more ‘traditional’ northerners/red wall because they’ll prefer to vote against their own interests to win the ‘culture war’

[Swizzlestick]

That’s it - I’m suggesting that the tories will blow topics like this up and will win a ton of votes from more ‘traditional’ northerners/red wall because they’ll prefer to vote against their own interests to win the ‘culture war’

Think you need to look at the polling in the red wall seats. A lot of these voters can't afford to put the heating on. They don't give a flying about stuff like this. Just because oddballs like android have decided to blow it up and cast themselves as spokesperson of all women doesn't mean it's going to be affecting votes, however hard the Tories might try.

[Rowls]

It’s the Tories (eg 30p Lee) who want to make the next election about culture wars like this (and the small boats), as they know it’s their only (small) hope of not being annihilated at the next GE.

It was the left who decided to make this an issue. Notably in the UK it was Laurie Penny and Owen Jones who brought it into the public consciousness. They saw it as the "next frontier" of civil rights.

The Conservatives certainly are happy to have this issue feature in public debate because they're confident that the majority of the public agree with them on these issues.

Like most of the public:

They're against deregulated self ID
They're against men competing in women's sports
They want to protect women only spaces
They don't believe there are 72 genders

[Jellybean]

This is a lie. You're just telling/repeating lies.

A quick look on Twitter gives many heart breaking examples of people who have transitioned, often through pressure from peers, family, authorities, and who are now detransitioning and they are thoroughly lost in life. One lady is currently drinking herself into the abyss, it's just gut wrenching to think she was advised to maim herself and try to change her very being to make her feel better when it will it clearly didn't come close to fixing the issues.

The scary thing for me is the movement, particularly in America, of parents taking the decision to have their children maimed, breasts removed etc and puberty blockers given when they are so young and have their whole lives ahead, they won't be able to becone a biological mother which is one of the most existence defining moments I've had as a woman. How many of us girls were tomboys and struggled with female puberty, I worry this is turning into some sort of cult that young kids are getting on board with to look cool

[CoolClaret]

Think you need to look at the polling in the red wall seats. A lot of these voters can't afford to put the heating on. They don't give a flying about stuff like this. Just because oddballs like android have decided to blow it up and cast themselves as spokesperson of all women doesn't mean it's going to be affecting votes, however hard the Tories might try.

Happy to be wrong but come election time when it comes in debates etc I think things you’d be surprised.

Hear many parents not happy with the state of ‘education’ around gender and what their kids are getting shown in school/tv

[SocialistClaret]

1% from a study of 8,000

That’s definitive isn’t it - not to mention it’s not long term analysis -

You scale that up to a substantial number say a million and that’s 10K regrets - do you think that’s acceptable?

OK. let's play with your number. 1 million

That's 450k people who attempt to kill themselves by age 19, and 10k people who have some level of regret transitioning

Surely we agree that 450k is larger than 10k?
Surely we also agree that suicide is worse that regretting transitioning?

If 2.22% of trans people who attempt to kill themselves are successful, that equals the total number of people who have some level of regret transitioning.

What percentage of people who attempt to kill themselves do you think are successful? And do you think it is higher or lower than 2.22%?
If you think it is higher than 2.22%, and your concern was about the statistics, then why are you more concerned about "trans regret" than dead trans kids?
If you think it's lower than 2.22% then you're beyond help.

[Rowls]

It’s the Tories (eg 30p Lee) who want to make the next election about culture wars like this (and the small boats), as they know it’s their only (small) hope of not being annihilated at the next GE.

They also know that Sir Kier has got himself into a mess on this subject.

At first he was all for new self ID so that any man can declare himself/herself to be a woman. Now he appears to be back tracking.

He previously refused to answer that tricky question, "What is a woman?"

He appears to be changing tact on this now and only thinks that 1 in a 1000 women has a willy.

If Labour don't want the Conservatives to make hay with this then they'll need to adjust their policy (whatever it is now) to something much closer to public opinion.

[Swizzlestick]

Happy to be wrong but come election time when it comes in debates etc I think things you’d be surprised.

Hear many parents not happy with the state of ‘education’ around gender and what their kids are getting shown in school/tv

Can only speak from experience (as a parent of a schoolchild) and I've noticed none of this. These things really do get blown out of proportion. Ditto TV.

[SocialistClaret]

A quick look on Twitter gives many heart breaking examples of people who have transitioned, often through pressure from peers, family, authorities, and who are now detransitioning and they are thoroughly lost in life. One lady is currently drinking herself into the abyss, it's just gut wrenching to think she was advised to maim herself and try to change her very being to make her feel better when it will it clearly didn't come close to fixing the issues.

The scary thing for me is the movement, particularly in America, of parents taking the decision to have their children maimed, breasts removed etc and puberty blockers given when they are so young and have their whole lives ahead, they won't be able to becone a biological mother which is one of the most existence defining moments I've had as a woman. How many of us girls were tomboys and struggled with female puberty, I worry this is turning into some sort of cult that young kids are getting on board with to look cool

Please. "A quick look on Twitter" does not trump a meta-analysis of 27 scientific studies that show the figure to be 1% of transitioners.

If you want to talk to me about improving healthcare for people who experience regret transitioning then you'll receive no dissent from me. But let's not pretend that it's a bigger issue than the 45% of trans kids who try to kill themselves.

[SocialistClaret]

If Labour don't want the Conservatives to make hay with this then they'll need to adjust their policy (whatever it is now) to something much closer to public opinion.

"There go my people. I must find out where they are going so I can lead them"

[dsr]

We know what to do about it, you are the people standing in the way of us doing that. We KNOW that gender affirming care from a young age leads to reduced risk of suicide among young trans people, and that societal acceptance of trans people leads to improvements in their mental health.

It's not up for debate what needs to be done. We already know.

For the avoidance of all doubt,

Who's "we"?

[Jellybean]

So you're happy for children to be maimed and become infertile just in case they happen to feel suicidal when they're older? How many of the wider population have felt suicidal at any given time, I'd imagine a lot. How about fix the reason they feel so bad rather than destroying their body.

[CoolClaret]

OK. let's play with your number. 1 million

That's 450k people who attempt to kill themselves by age 19, and 10k people who have some level of regret transitioning

Surely we agree that 450k is larger than 10k?
Surely we also agree that suicide is worse that regretting transitioning?

If 2.22% of trans people who attempt to kill themselves are successful, that equals the total number of people who have some level of regret transitioning.

What percentage of people who attempt to kill themselves do you think are successful? And do you think it is higher or lower than 2.22%?
If you think it is higher than 2.22%, and your concern was about the statistics, then why are you more concerned about "trans regret" than dead trans kids?
If you think it's lower than 2.22% then you're beyond help.

You’re putting these numbers about like they’re absolutes.

These studies are one offs, very small sample sizes, non long term.

The study that you are quoting from was taken at the end of 2020 ie during pandemic where everyone’s head was f*****d, in that same study, 31% of native/indigenous youth attempted to kill themselves as well - what do you think the answer is there?

I don’t particularly subscribe to collective ethics tbh and I think things should be a case by case basis.

Lastly, this study was also out of America - I don’t think the same %s would be in say, France for example, wonder why that is? America has a lot to answer for, absolute swathes of their population are on a lot of unnecessary medication.

You’re advocating on policies on unsettled science based on small sample sized polls that we simply don’t fully understand.

[SocialistClaret]

Who's "we"?

Pretending to not know what "we" means is pretty weak

Even if you are proposing every prisoner has his or her own cell, that's going to take time. What do we do with the trans woman rapist in the meantime, if it can't be discussed? Discussion or no, the decision has to be made, and better made with discussion than without.

[CoolClaret]

Can only speak from experience (as a parent of a schoolchild) and I've noticed none of this. These things really do get blown out of proportion. Ditto TV.

That’s fair enough and is your n=1 experience.

I remember conversing with a work colleague and she told me about her daughter that is ‘non binary’ (the woman didn’t believe it btw) and out of her friendship group of 11 or so, only 3 of them ‘identified’ as ‘straight’, she was basically downplaying it and admitted as much that her daughter and friends were kind of unpopular and could well have arrived at their identities basically for exactly that - to have some actual identity.

[dsr]

Pretending to not know what "we" means is pretty weak

When I asked "what do we do about ..." I was referring to "we" as the general population as a whole.

Who are you referring to as "we"? By using the word "we", you clearly can't just mean yourself., At least one other person must share your views. Who is this person or these people?

[CoolClaret]

When I asked "what do we do about ..." I was referring to "we" as the general population as a whole.

Who are you referring to as "we"? By using the word "we", you clearly can't just mean yourself., At least one other person must share your views. Who is this person or these people?

SocialistClaret thinks extremely small opinion polls of 8,000 people should dictate scientific policy to fit his own world view. That’s about it

[SocialistClaret]

You’re putting these numbers about like they’re absolutes.

These studies are one offs, very small sample sizes, non long term.

...

27 one-offs. lol.


What are "testimonies" if not "one offs"?

Well it’s not is it. They exist, it happens. Plenty of testimonies

You are not to be taken seriously on this. You've an inability to think rationally if you think that 8,000 people across 27 scientific studies is debunked by a few individual testimonies on Twitter or Facebook, or wherever you get your "testimonies".

[SocialistClaret]

SocialistClaret thinks extremely small opinion polls of 8,000 people should dictate scientific policy to fit his own world view. That’s about it

Nope. I just think it's better than the bs you're peddling as evidence. I want more studies, but i'm also not willing to accept bad faith actors demanding ever increasing levels of evidence before we take an action they don't want to take to protect the lives of trans people.

We have enough evidence to act now to save these peoples lives. That doesn't mean we stop gathering evidence. Some people seem to prefer they kill themselves while we gather more, and more, and more evidence though. I wonder why?

[SocialistClaret]

We really need to do something about scientific illiteracy in this country. Across so many subjects (this one, climate change, vaccines, etc) too many people accept individual testimony over the conclusions of actual scientific studies and it's getting people killed.

[CoolClaret]

Nope. I just think it's better than the bs you're peddling as evidence. I want more studies, but i'm also not willing to accept bad faith actors demanding ever increasing levels of evidence before we take an action they don't want to take to protect the lives of trans people.

We have enough evidence to act now to save these peoples lives. That doesn't mean we stop gathering evidence. Some people seem to prefer they kill themselves while we gather more, and more, and more evidence though. I wonder why?

I’m not pedalling any bs as evidence - you’re the one cherry picking for your argument to be presented as gospel

… like the ‘study’ conducted during at the end of 2020 that showed that youths as a whole had increased attempts of suicide - wonder why?

Maybe trans would have less stigma and more acceptance (leading to less purported attempted/successful suicides) if we encouraged proper treatment… but not for kids on unsettled science? Or plonking trans women in women’s prisons/changing rooms?

Basically taking things slowly and scientifically, not jumping down a rabbit hole based on short term opinion polls

[SocialistClaret]

I’m not pedalling any bs as evidence - you’re the one cherry picking for your argument to be presented as gospel

...

A meta-analysis of over two-dozen scientific studies is literally the opposite of cherry-picking.

[CoolClaret]

A meta-analysis of over two-dozen scientific studies is literally the opposite of cherry-picking.

Boring - you were referencing the attempted suicide rate as gospel from a survey taken at the end of 2020.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dawnstacey ... e6c4ee716e

The ‘over two dozen scientific studies’ has a grand total of 8,000 patients. Which is absolutely cock all considering and is far from the settled science that you like to think it is.

[CoolClaret]

1% is massive, happy to concede in the future over longer term studies and the number is more like 0.01%

[SocialistClaret]

Boring - you were referencing the attempted suicide rate as gospel from a survey taken at the end of 2020.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dawnstacey ... e6c4ee716e

The ‘over two dozen scientific studies’ has a grand total of 8,000 patients. Which is absolutely cock all considering and is far from the settled science that you like to think it is.

You could have just asked me where i got my 45% figure from instead of trying to guess and then getting it wrong.

The number comes from evidence this PDF submitted to parliament as evidence.
https://committees.parliament.uk/writte ... 23299/pdf/

which comes from a University of Cambridge/Stonewall report which you can find here.
https://www.stonewall.org.uk/system/fil ... t_2017.pdf

FYI this is from 2017. You seem to think that the figure holds up from a 2020 study? Good to know. Thank you for accidentally adding to my supporting evidence.

If you want to link to a couple of Tweets or Facebook posts from the sources you value as important enough to ignore this then i'm willing to take a look.

[SocialistClaret]

1% is massive, happy to concede in the future over longer term studies and the number is more like 0.01%

If 1% is "massive" then what is 45%?

I would like an answer on this please.

[Rowls]

"There go my people. I must find out where they are going so I can lead them"

Yes, I suppose Sir Kier can try and inform them why they are wrong and see how it works out for him and the Labour Party.

I'm happy for him to give it a go but I'd prefer to have a conservative government than a socialist one.

[CoolClaret]

If 1% is "massive" then what is 45%?

I would like an answer on this please.

You really are boring.

That stonewall report polls just over 3,700 kids - with the vast majority being homosexual not trans.

The data there suggests/shows that:

1) there is a lot of bullying around lgbt in school, both direct and indirect (flippant use of ‘gay’ etc) - I’m not advocating for bullying lgbt

2) trans kids are bullied at a much higher rate than other minority group in school

3) the same study suggests that 22% of young gay/lesbian school kids have attempted to take their own life


No way does that data say that ‘45% of trans school kids attempt to take their own life because they have been denied gender reassignment surgery’

I think if you look at how many kids in general think about/attempt suicide as a direct result of bullying, you will see extremely strong correlation, you’re literally cherry picking and skewing data points to try to advocate gender reassignment surgery as being the absolute cause prevention, when it just isn’t

[android]

So you have no interest in showing any empathy to trans people then? Thanks for clearing that up - your post from last night did sow some seeds of doubt, but now here you are smearing them all as potential predators.

Back to form I see Greenmile. It's a small illustration of the type of dishonesty that the likes of JKR have to put up with all the time. She writes about empathy for trans people (as I did) and then oddballs (touche Swizzler) like Greenmile and Swizzlestick come along and declare that what she really meant was the exact opposite of what she said, almost like they assume people cannot read! It's a product of "no debate" because they cannot answer the questions or debate the specific issues and once they realise people they disagree with have no hate they have nowhere to go but insults and lies. Just no point trying to have a sensible conversation with people like that, although I keep repeating the same mistake and trying - sigh.

[Gaia]

Nothing scientific about gender ideology.

[Greenmile]

Back to form I see Greenmile. It's a small illustration of the type of dishonesty that the likes of JKR have to put up with all the time. She writes about empathy for trans people (as I did) and then oddballs (touche Swizzler) like Greenmile and Swizzlestick come along and declare that what she really meant was the exact opposite of what she said, almost like they assume people cannot read! It's a product of "no debate" because they cannot answer the questions or debate the specific issues and once they realise people they disagree with have no hate they have nowhere to go but insults and lies. Just no point trying to have a sensible conversation with people like that, although I keep repeating the same mistake and trying - sigh.

This post could replace the following Wikipedia article in its entirety without anyone noticing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychol ... projection

[JohnMcGreal]

Yes, I suppose Sir Kier can try and inform them why they are wrong and see how it works out for him and the Labour Party.

I'm happy for him to give it a go but I'd prefer to have a conservative government than a socialist one.

You'll be getting one. That much is guaranteed.

[Rowls]

You'll be getting one. That much is guaranteed.

It's by far the most likely outcome but I think it'll be much narrower than the current polls suggest.

If Sunak can succeed in stopping the boats and the economy turns around (as predicted) then I think it'll be tight.

Let's be honest, Sir Kier has failed to catch the public's imagination (see the front page of today's Times) and is in the lead by default at present. The more the Conservatives bring up his failure to understand the simplest of things (eg. what a woman is) or his previous flips flops (see his stance on Jeremy Corbyn) or his political gaffes (supporting BLM, taking the knee) then the closer it will be.

The economy will continue to stagnate until we have a proper reforming government who take the necessary measures to reduce taxation and the size of the state.

[JohnMcGreal]

It's by far the most likely outcome but I think it'll be much narrower than the current polls suggest.

If Sunak can succeed in stopping the boats and the economy turns around (as predicted) then I think it'll be tight.

Let's be honest, Sir Kier has failed to catch the public's imagination (see the front page of today's Times) and is in the lead by default at present. The more the Conservatives bring up his failure to understand the simplest of things (eg. what a woman is) or his previous flips flops (see his stance on Jeremy Corbyn) or his political gaffes (supporting BLM, taking the knee) then the closer it will be.

The economy will continue to stagnate until we have a proper reforming government who take the necessary measures to reduce taxation and the size of the state.

I meant you'll be getting a conservative government. One of a different shade, probably, but it will be very long way from socialist, so don't worry.

I agree on the polling as well. It will be much closer than people think closer to election time.

[Rowls]

I meant you'll be getting a conservative government. One of a different shade, probably, but it will be very long way from socialist, so don't worry.

I agree on the polling as well. It will be much closer than people think closer to election time.

We're on the same page here (a rare occasion! ) but looking at it from different sides.

[Jakubclaret]

It's by far the most likely outcome but I think it'll be much narrower than the current polls suggest.

If Sunak can succeed in stopping the boats and the economy turns around (as predicted) then I think it'll be tight.

Let's be honest, Sir Kier has failed to catch the public's imagination (see the front page of today's Times) and is in the lead by default at present. The more the Conservatives bring up his failure to understand the simplest of things (eg. what a woman is) or his previous flips flops (see his stance on Jeremy Corbyn) or his political gaffes (supporting BLM, taking the knee) then the closer it will be.

The economy will continue to stagnate until we have a proper reforming government who take the necessary measures to reduce taxation and the size of the state.

It'll be decided on immigration as most contentious political issues are & the electorate don't trust labour enough to be sure they won't let bucket loads through & I think labour will fall on that, it the tories can shore that side up it'll be a stroll for them, NHS will be key as well just as big as immigration people don't have confidence at the moment in the NHS.

[ClaretPete001]

Back to form I see Greenmile. It's a small illustration of the type of dishonesty that the likes of JKR have to put up with all the time. She writes about empathy for trans people (as I did) and then oddballs (touche Swizzler) like Greenmile and Swizzlestick come along and declare that what she really meant was the exact opposite of what she said, almost like they assume people cannot read! It's a product of "no debate" because they cannot answer the questions or debate the specific issues and once they realise people they disagree with have no hate they have nowhere to go but insults and lies. Just no point trying to have a sensible conversation with people like that, although I keep repeating the same mistake and trying - sigh.

I think you have to trust the audience in circumstances like these,,,

[aggi]

Care to explain Aggi? I quickly corrected it in a second post to many rather than most, as I don't have statistics on it but is was more of an observation rather than an expression of what I think. What is your objection? Is it the case that you regard Stonewall approved lesbians such as Alex Drummond with full beard and penis and sexually attracted to women, as a lesbian? It's a view that has taken hold, and perhaps you share it and that is what you mean, but can you not understand that is a bit offensive (and frankly demoralising and very scary) to many lesbians? A different view on the importance of sex does not mean that I am debating in bad faith (I don't see how that would benefit anyone) and I thought you were a bit better than that.

The thought process that seems to be that transsexuals are either post-op or intact heterosexual males (and a latter suggestion that a large enough subset of these are "predators" for it to be a large concern) shows what your view is.

I just find the whole thing pretty weird. Not so much the JK Rowling stance but all of the blokes who are so keen to jump on this as an erosion of women's rights who have been notably conspicuous on other debates on women's rights.

[Rowls]

It'll be decided on immigration as most contentious political issues are & the electorate don't trust labour enough to be sure they won't let bucket loads through & I think labour will fall on that, it the tories can shore that side up it'll be a stroll for them, NHS will be key as well just as big as immigration people don't have confidence at the moment in the NHS.

Immigration will be a factor. I can see the Conservatives retaining a decent proportion of the 'red wall' voters they won over with Boris but not in the same numbers.

Labour will retain their new core supporter base of metropolitan liberal city dwellers. There's going to be big swing towards Labour but how far it will swing is the question. The new constituency boundaries make it fairer towards the Conservatives so that will increase what Labour need compared to the last GE.

My gut instinct is for Labour to win with a minority in a hung parliament.

[JohnMcGreal]

We're on the same page here (a rare occasion! ) but looking at it from different sides.

I think Starmer is in danger of losing his USP, which is the appearance of a safe pair of hands, someone who is pragmatic and can solve problems. That was easy when up against a clown like Johnson or a deranged lunatic like Truss, but Sunak is proving to be quite good at portraying those virtues, even if there's not a lot substance behind it.

Unfortunately Starmer has completely shredded the progressive platform he won the leadership election on and has bet the farm on appealing to older, socially conservative voters in the hope they'll support him. It might work, but he doesn't have a strong policy platform or an energised core of supporters to fall back on if that fails. He might fall short.

Whatever happens, the chance of a Starmer led government suddenly shifting to a more progressive, pro-European, social democratic position once in government is close to nil. There'll be some tinkering around the edges but we'll be getting the same policies, by and large.

[JohnMcGreal]

My gut instinct is for Labour to win with a minority in a hung parliament.

I hope you're right.

[Rowls]

I think Starmer is in danger of losing his USP, which is the appearance of a safe pair of hands, someone who is pragmatic and can solve problems. That was easy when up against a clown like Johnson or a deranged lunatic like Truss, but Sunak is proving to be quite good at portraying those virtues, even if there's not a lot substance behind it.

Unfortunately Starmer has completely shredded the progressive platform he won the leadership election on and has bet the farm on appealing to older, socially conservative voters in the hope they'll support him. It might work, but he doesn't have a strong policy platform or an energised core of supporters to fall back on if that fails. He might fall short.

Whatever happens, the chance of a Starmer led government suddenly shifting to a more progressive, pro-European, social democratic position once in government is close to nil. There'll be some tinkering around the edges but we'll be getting the same policies, by and large.

I think Starmer's already blown any reputation he might have had with the trans farce and the BLM stance. Particularly with the voters he needed to win back - those blue collar workers aren't going to swing in big enough numbers for him.

However, they won't necessary stick with the Conservatives, for whom many of them were first time voters.

Viewing Johnson as "a clown" is the trap that all his opponents fell into. He was a serious politician when it came to campaigning and if the Conservatives had stuck with him he'd slay Starmer.

All IMO of course.

I think Starmer's on course to win by default and the interesting question will be if the Conservatives stick with Sunak or twist. I'd very much like to see Kemi Badenoch in the hot seat. She's easily the most impressive front bench politician in the Conservatives right now.