Imploding Charlie

[nil_desperandum]

I would.

Maybe you can afford to? ....many families can't.
I think - my opinion, that for many on a low income, keeping your head above water is the absolute bottom line, and if it came down to it that would be the priority. (Ideally of course the choice wouldn't have to be made).

[Guich]

I think in reality very few people knew how they would be impacted in money terms by the vote; and that hasn't changed much.

Everyone knew that the Brexit Bus figure of £365m was the headline number, not the net contribution. Equally many will have spotted the project fear tactics that worked so well for Cameron in the General Election (regarding the threat of SNP influence). So a lot of what the remain campaigners said appeared disingenuous.

So people voted largely on whether they like the idea of a political European union or not, with a number of factors built in, not just economic.

[Greenmile]

I haven't had time to read the linked article yet, but weren't most of the economists' predictions based on Cameron's (broken) promise to trigger Article 50 the day after the result, if leave won?

[Lancasterclaret]

There is a massive difference between going "course I would" on a football message board and the actual reality if it actually happens.

Hopefully we can make a success of it, though the lack of a clear direction coming from our leaders is a cause for concern.

[nil_desperandum]

I haven't had time to read the linked article yet, but weren't most of the economists' predictions based on Cameron's (broken) promise to trigger Article 50 the day after the result, if leave won?

I think that's a reasonable assumption. They couldn't base their predictions on the basis that Cameron was a serial liar.

[RocketLawnChair]

What I find very interesting about the Brexit threads on this forum are the amount of actual experts we have in our little band.

Can I just say though in this debate that the Bank Of England no less have admitted that their forecasts have been in their own words "a Michael Fish moment" yet posters on here are saying they are actually wrong too say that. We are talking about the Bank of England here not some column in a daily rag that some on here seem to store so much faith in.

[Spijed]

I think in reality very few people knew how they would be impacted in money terms by the vote; and that hasn't changed much.

Everyone knew that the Brexit Bus figure of £365m was the headline number, not the net contribution. Equally many will have spotted the project fear tactics that worked so well for Cameron in the General Election (regarding the threat of SNP influence). So a lot of what the remain campaigners said appeared disingenuous.

So people voted largely on whether they like the idea of a political European union or not, with a number of factors built in, not just economic.

With regards to the NHS headline figure, has there been any evidence either way to say whether the NHS will be better off in or out of the EU?

[nil_desperandum]

Can I just say though in this debate that the Bank Of England no less have admitted that their forecasts have been in their own words "a Michael Fish moment" yet posters on here are saying they are actually wrong too say that. We are talking about the Bank of England here not some column in a daily rag that some on here seem to store so much faith in.

That's not factually correct with regards to the Brexit predictions. Whilst Haldane admitted to economists making errors in predictions, the "Michael Fish moment" he specifically referred to was in failing to predict the 2008 crash.
Here's the BBC summary of his comments:
"Mr Haldane went on to describe the failure to understand the impact of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 as the profession's "Michael Fish moment" - when the weather forecaster suggested in 1987 there wasn't a hurricane on the way before record high winds devastated large parts of the south east of England.

To be clear, Mr Haldane was talking about economists as a whole - not just the Bank - and said he still fundamentally agreed with the Bank's central forecast - made last November - that 2017 and 2018 could see a "material" slowdown in economic activity and a significant rise in inflation.
The Bank was right to suggest that sterling would fall in value following a Brexit vote."

[Rowls]

...I dare say Cameron, had he thought he could get away with it, would have produced a calculator that told people what their salary would be in 5 years' time with Brexit or without; but even he couldn't swing those figures and make them real.

It's essentially what George Osborne pretended his department had calculated. In the end, it doesn't matter.

Anyone who understood the calculation and the figure knew it was stupid guesswork and presented GDP as household income but for most of the electorate it was lost in the glut of the other arguments that were being made.

[ClaretMoffitt]

It's essentially what George Osborne pretended his department had calculated. In the end, it doesn't matter.

Anyone who understood the calculation and the figure knew it was stupid guesswork and presented GDP as household income but for most of the electorate it was lost in the glut of the other arguments that were being made.

4.3k a year average household income loss ring any bells lads?

[Spijed]

At the same time, Nigel Farage doesn't have a better grasp of the financial realities for the UK outside of the EU than anyone else. He's as guilty as everyone else of making it up as he goes along.

[RocketLawnChair]

The parts of the reel selected suit your stance though nil. He clearly admits in several other paragraphs that the forecasts following a leave vote were clearly wide of the mark.

[Damo]

There is a massive difference between going "course I would" on a football message board and the actual reality if it actually happens.

Hopefully we can make a success of it, though the lack of a clear direction coming from our leaders is a cause for concern.

The stories of people being hit in the pocket were circulating long before the referendum.
It didn't stop the majority voting to leave.
I can't understand why you assume people saying they are prepared to take the hit, be it on here or anywhere else, are doing so out of bravado

[Rowls]

At the same time, Nigel Farage doesn't have a better grasp of the financial realities for the UK outside of the EU than anyone else. He's as guilty as everyone else of making it up as he goes along.

Nigel, for all his bombast and other faults, has never fallen into the trap of declaring predictions as gospel. (Unless anyone knows otherwise)

He usually says things like "the future for Britain outside the single market is bright because we can open up trade with the rest of the world".

And in that respect he is completely right - Brexit is neither innately good or bad, it is what we make of it. If we can agree a multitude of trade deals with countries that was not possible whilst we were restricted by EU rules then it could benefit our economy enormously.

[JohnMcGreal]

The stories of people being hit in the pocket were circulating long before the referendum.
It didn't stop the majority voting to leave.
I can't understand why you assume people saying they are prepared to take the hit, be it on here or anywhere else, are doing so out of bravado

If they're not doing so out of bravado, they're doing so out of something much less flattering.

[Damo]

If they're not doing so out of bravado, they're doing so out of something much less flattering.

Care to elaborate?

[Spijed]

Nigel, for all his bombast and other faults, has never fallen into the trap of declaring predictions as gospel. (Unless anyone knows otherwise)

He usually says things like "the future for Britain outside the single market is bright because we can open up trade with the rest of the world".

And in that respect he is completely right - Brexit is neither innately good or bad, it is what we make of it. If we can agree a multitude of trade deals with countries that was not possible whilst we were restricted by EU rules then it could benefit our economy enormously.

But he, like many others talk about brand new markets. Don't we already export some of the finer things in life, such as our top end cars around the world, for example?

Is there any evidence that the number of Aston Martin cars that are sold is restricted because of our current membership of the EU?

[Damo]

But he, like many others talk about brand new markets. Don't we already export some of the finer things in life, such as our top end cars around the world, for example?

Is there any evidence that the number of Aston Martin cars that are sold is restricted because of our current membership of the EU?

Spijed, are you a car importer/exporter by any chance?

[nil_desperandum]

The parts of the reel selected suit your stance though nil. He clearly admits in several other paragraphs that the forecasts following a leave vote were clearly wide of the mark.

I'll accept that point RLC, providing you equally acknowledge the point made by Greenmile (above) - that these predictions were based on the assumption that Cameron would make good his promise to trigger Article 50 the day after the referendum.
Instead, he resigned, and Mark Carney (BofE) intervened to stimulate the economy, and do much to reassure business and the financial markets.

[Spijed]

Spijed, are you a car importer/exporter by any chance?

No

[Lancasterclaret]

I can't understand why you assume people saying they are prepared to take the hit, be it on here or anywhere else, are doing so out of bravado

Because it hasn't (or might not) happen yet.

[lucs86]

"I'm very sorry, we're going to have to make you redundant. But on the plus side the Protection of Badgers Act 2019 contains no references to European Directives and 1 of the local Polish shops is also shutting down".

"Buzzin".

[Right_winger]

No comment by imploding arsehole on this thread yet?

[Damo]

Because it hasn't (or might not) happen yet.

Are you talking about brexit or the financial hit?
Either way, people voted despite the gloomy forecasts.
And still voted leave

[Imploding Turtle]

4.3k a year average household income loss ring any bells lads?

The average household income last year was estimated to be £26,400. Since the day before the referendum the pound has dropped 17% ($1.47 then versus $1.22 today) in value against the dollar. Compared to the dollar we are already £4,488 worse off.

Relative to the dollar £26,400 the day before the vote is worth £21,912 today.

The funny thing is though, Osborne wasn't even talking about households being £4,300 worse off already. He was talking about it happening by 2031.

[RocketLawnChair]

I'll accept that point RLC, providing you equally acknowledge the point made by Greenmile (above) - that these predictions were based on the assumption that Cameron would make good his promise to trigger Article 50 the day after the referendum.
Instead, he resigned, and Mark Carney (BofE) intervened to stimulate the economy, and do much to reassure business and the financial markets.

Of course I will acknowledge that nil because I see good and bad in both sides of the debate and really struggle to form a personal agenda within all the topics brexit entails,,, and then role them all into one...I would have voted "middle" in the referendum If it was on the ballot paper..

I personally voted on what was currently beneficial to my current career in which exporting is key. But good and bad things happened to me pre brexit and I'm expecting pretty similar post brexit...

[JohnMcGreal]

Care to elaborate?

When people tell me they're prepared to be financially worse off as long as we leave the European Union, I don't think they're brave. I think they're reckless and a bit daft.

[Imploding Turtle]

Even by the standards of this topic as debated here and elsewhere, that's a staggeringly dishonest distortion.

Care to explain how? The value of our currancy is dependent on how it compares to foreign currencies. And relative to foreign currencies, broadly speaking, ours has gone down quite a lot because of the referendum result. So how is what i've said a dishonest distortion?

[summitclaret]

Another key issue for me voting to leave was I felt that the euro is unsustainable and will eventually cause massive problems for all of us, but much less if for us we are out of the EU and have set up many more trade deals elsewhere.

Also, Merkel spooked many by inviting migrants as well as geniune AS to come on in. I think it is now generally accepted that more should have been done to house AS safely nearer to their points of escape. This imo would have saved many lifes lost in transit.

[ClaretMoffitt]

Care to explain how? The value of our currancy is dependent on how it compares to foreign currencies. And relative to foreign currencies, broadly speaking, ours has gone down quite a lot because of the referendum result. So how is what i've said a dishonest distortion?

I don't feel 4.3k worse off a year, nor does anyone I know. Certainly not since June. If people we're truly being hit so hard in their monthly pay packet, don't you think the very active,passionate and loud remainers would have made a vocal point about that by now? If everyone was losing as much money as you say, they'd certainly have enough support. I mean it's about £350 a month we are talking about here.

[summitclaret]

"When people tell me they're prepared to be financially worse off as long as we leave the European Union, I don't think they're brave. I think they're reckless and a bit daft."

What about people that can't see what the pace of cultural change might bring? How reckless could that be in the long if control is not restored?

[Imploding Turtle]

Two things. One, feelings and facts are two different things. And two, no one is saying you will be worse off.

[Imploding Turtle]

"When people tell me they're prepared to be financially worse off as long as we leave the European Union, I don't think they're brave. I think they're reckless and a bit daft."

What about people that can't see what the pace of cultural change might bring? How reckless could that be in the long if control is not restored?

What country that places controls on changes to its culture would you like us to be like?

This is an open question to everyone btw, not just you. I'm just quoting you.

[ClaretMoffitt]

Two things. One, feelings and facts are two different things. And two, no one is saying you will be worse off.

So who is this segment that are losing give or take £350 a month since June (depending on their salary), just curious.

[nil_desperandum]

I don't feel 4.3k worse off a year, nor does anyone I know. .

In general you are right, but for some people the plunge in the pound will have made them 4.3k worse off, or indeed better off.
As an example: My wife gets quite a lot of her income in Euros. We are therefore quite a bit better off this year than we were last year, so that's the consolation for me since I am concerned overall about the impact of Brexit.

[summitclaret]

The answer IT is bleeding obvious, but is not something many dare say in public, but very many do in private and that is just storing up more trouble.

Just go with the flow on Brexit pal.

[Imploding Turtle]

So who is this segment that are losing give or take £350 a month since June (depending on their salary), just curious.

It's not a segment, it's an average of every household.

[Imploding Turtle]

Firstly because that's nobody's measure, certainly not the measure used by those who originally made that claim because not everything is about FX values and secondly, by picking one currency, even by your own flawed measure you've distorted it. Deliberately. For effect.

That's quite an accusation to make. You're saying i've deliberately distorted the truth. You're calling me a liar? What do you think is more likely, that i chose the Dollar because it's the most commonly used measure of the value of the GBP and i didn't feel like wasting time calculating the pounds devaluation against every major currency for people who aren't interested in new information, or did i deliberately choose the dollar, and only the dollar, because it gives the best facade for my point?

And if you still decide that i've deliberately tried to mislead, what is it about anything i've ever posted that makes you think i'm the kind of person who would do that?

[Damo]

When people tell me they're prepared to be financially worse off as long as we leave the European Union, I don't think they're brave. I think they're reckless and a bit daft.

I'm the short term.
Personally I'm thinking of my children's future.
But each to their own

[Damo]

The average household income last year was estimated to be £26,400. Since the day before the referendum the pound has dropped 17% ($1.47 then versus $1.22 today) in value against the dollar. Compared to the dollar we are already £4,488 worse off.

Relative to the dollar £26,400 the day before the vote is worth £21,912 today.

The funny thing is though, Osborne wasn't even talking about households being £4,300 worse off already. He was talking about it happening by 2031.

Here he is

[Imploding Turtle]

You're saying that to someone who avoids hyperbole and exaggeration when in serious discussion, and is prepared to explain how he has reached a fact-based opinion. You may as well be calling me a liar, it's equally as insulting.

[Imploding Turtle]

Feel insulted then. Feel also that your own perception of yourself is not shared by some others. Or don't. I don't care.

Me neither. I was just trying to get to the bottom of why you perceive me the way you do. I don't have a problem with you being wrong, but I thought you might.

[bluelabrador16]

In crude terms.....

IT
"The average household income last year was estimated to be £26,400. Since the day before the referendum the pound has dropped 17% ($1.47 then versus $1.22 today) in value against the dollar...."

United Kingdom: Imports, percent of GDP...approx. 30%, hence ..approx. 5% decline in household income. (£1346)

[Imploding Turtle]

You assume wrongly I give any credence to your definition of right and wrong. For someone who took three months to twig some of the basic currency impacts on, say, share prices to come on shouting the odds about FX impacts now does tickle me though, so... as you were.

What are you on about?

[dsr]

The average household income last year was estimated to be £26,400. Since the day before the referendum the pound has dropped 17% ($1.47 then versus $1.22 today) in value against the dollar. Compared to the dollar we are already £4,488 worse off.

Relative to the dollar £26,400 the day before the vote is worth £21,912 today.

The funny thing is though, Osborne wasn't even talking about households being £4,300 worse off already. He was talking about it happening by 2031.

The reason it's dishonest, turtle, (I suppose it may be an honest mistake, though I doubt it) is because it draws a conclusion that is not supported by the facts.

So the average household income last year was £26,400. The expenditure for that average household was (let's say) £26,400, break even point. At the end of the year, they were in the same financial position as they started.

The following year, the pound has dropped, so the £26,400 they earned (allow 1% inflation pay rise, now £26,664) is now worth $32,530. And the £26,400 they spent (plus inflation, now £26,664) is also worth $32,530. So they have earned £26,664 and spent £26,664, which gives the same result as last year - break even. They aren't £4,488 worse off.

Where your mistake (deliberate or otherwise) comes from is that you are assuming that the average household receives its money in US Dollars, but spends it in Sterling. I assure you, as I suspect you really know, that that isn't how it works. It's Sterling in, Sterling out, for most families.

[Damo]

The reason it's dishonest, turtle, (I suppose it may be an honest mistake, though I doubt it) is because it draws a conclusion that is not supported by the facts.

So the average household income last year was £26,400. The expenditure for that average household was (let's say) £26,400, break even point. At the end of the year, they were in the same financial position as they started.

The following year, the pound has dropped, so the £26,400 they earned (allow 1% inflation pay rise, now £26,664) is now worth $32,530. And the £26,400 they spent (plus inflation, now £26,664) is also worth $32,530. So they have earned £26,664 and spent £26,664, which gives the same result as last year - break even. They aren't £4,488 worse off.

Where your mistake (deliberate or otherwise) comes from is that you are assuming that the average household receives its money in US Dollars, but spends it in Sterling. I assure you, as I suspect you really know, that that isn't how it works. It's Sterling in, Sterling out, for most families.

You should of completely avoided the bait Turtle

[Imploding Turtle]

The reason it's dishonest, turtle, (I suppose it may be an honest mistake, though I doubt it) is because it draws a conclusion that is not supported by the facts.

So the average household income last year was £26,400. The expenditure for that average household was (let's say) £26,400, break even point. At the end of the year, they were in the same financial position as they started.

The following year, the pound has dropped, so the £26,400 they earned (allow 1% inflation pay rise, now £26,664) is now worth $32,530. And the £26,400 they spent (plus inflation, now £26,664) is also worth $32,530. So they have earned £26,664 and spent £26,664, which gives the same result as last year - break even. They aren't £4,488 worse off.

Where your mistake (deliberate or otherwise) comes from is that you are assuming that the average household receives its money in US Dollars, but spends it in Sterling. I assure you, as I suspect you really know, that that isn't how it works. It's Sterling in, Sterling out, for most families.

It wasn't a perfect refutation of an argument, nor was it intended to be because it wasn't responding to an argument at all. Moffitt make a dismissive post about Osborne saying that the average UK household would be £4,300 worse off in 15 years because of Brexit and i showed how by one measure we're already worse off. Moffitt, of course, didn't include the 15 years bit, but i wanted to show him how we're all already worse off as a result of the devalued Pound. The effects of this devaluation hasn't been felt yet, though i never claimed it was.

And i'm pretty sure i made a number of efforts to be absolutely clear that i was saying I was comparing the value of the average households income relative to the US dollar. I was never pretending that the average UK household is currently, actually over £4,300 British pounds worse off because it would be impossible to predict exactly how much the cost of living is going to go up over the next years or two as a result of our currency being devalued.

You and Tom are criticising me for presenting a conclusion that I have not presented, and making an argument that I have not made, and then called me dishonest for it.

As a side note, isn't it funny how you're not criticising Moffitt for deliberately excluding the "15 years" thing from Osbornes comment, you know, for effect? Isn't that dishonest? Actually, of course it's not, because it wasn't deliberate. But isn't it funny how you're willing to give someone with whom you agree the benefit of the doubt while jumping on the back of someone you don't?

[Imploding Turtle]

You should of completely avoided the bait Turtle

Even in threads started by shitkickers in bad faith i'll still try to have a reasonable conversation with someone if they're willing to have it. You weren't, but others were/are.

I was perfectly well aware of why you started the thread with that title, as cute as it is, which is why i didn't respond to your opening post. If you'd expressed more of a willingness to talk reasonably and like adults then you'd have got a response, but people like you don't have a tendancy to do that when it comes to disagreeing with others. It's not your fault it's just how you're wired and i'm not judging you for it. But it is a shame that we can't simply have a chat about things on which we disagree, isn't it?

[RingoMcCartney]

I predict some serious pedantry for starters. The liberal use of the word "idiot" for mains. And some obscure graphs for sweet.

Can't wait......

[Paul Waine]

The average household income last year was estimated to be £26,400. Since the day before the referendum the pound has dropped 17% ($1.47 then versus $1.22 today) in value against the dollar. Compared to the dollar we are already £4,488 worse off.

Relative to the dollar £26,400 the day before the vote is worth £21,912 today.

The funny thing is though, Osborne wasn't even talking about households being £4,300 worse off already. He was talking about it happening by 2031.

Hi IT, I'm sure you already know this - and perhaps someone else has already pointed it out (I've not read all this thread) - just because GBP has devalued against USD by 20% (or whatever the figure is today) doesn't make me worse off by 20%. If I have income in GBP and most of my payments obligations are in GBP, then my exposure to USD is mitigated. Your figures are only right if I get paid in GBP but life and work in New York - and so all my expenses are in USD.

Re Osborne's "forecasts" - agree, he was assuming an awful lot of things - and then had to look 15 years forward before he had a "scary" number. I guess he didn't see he wouldn't be around to do anything about it.