UK Economy suffers Triple Blow

taio · Post by **taio** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:39 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:Many forcings can lead to recessions, just like many different forcings can lead to warming.

Which seems to be exactly the point Sidney was making.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:41 am

taio wrote:Which seems to be exactly the point Sidney was making.

No. He was trying to imply that Brexit can't possibly cause a recession because we've had recessions in the past, before Brexit.
It's the exact same tactic climate change deniers use to try and question the fact that our current climate change is largely man-made.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:44 am

Yes I do notice cause.

I just wondered why this was being blamed on Brexit and where the blame was directed when Brexit wasn't an issue.

I see I was right about the Uk having a recession during every decade though.
Seems the US has been the cause of a few too, which is interesting.

As for bias, I don't really have any, I just don't rush around waving my arms around blaming Brexit for everything when recessions are a common occurrence already.

taio · Post by **taio** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:45 am

I read it differently in that he was saying that a recession can be caused by several factors and it is inevitable there will be one in the next few years irrespective of Brexit. Most people would agree with that perhaps apart from Gordon Brown.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:45 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:No. He was trying to imply that Brexit can't possibly cause a recession because we've had recessions in the past, before Brexit.
It's the exact same tactic climate change deniers use to try and question the fact that our current climate change is largely man-made.

I didn't imply that at all, but good effort at putting words in my mouth.

We have recessions every decade, it's common enough that we all know it happens.
Without Brexit we'd probably have another one, that's my belief even if it may be wrong.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:46 am

taio wrote:I read it differently in that he was saying that a recession can be caused by several factors and it is inevitable there will be one in the next few years irrespective of Brexit. Most people would agree with that perhaps apart from Gordon Brown.

Ah Gordon "No more boom and bust" Brown...

taio · Post by **taio** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:46 am

Sidney1st wrote:I didn't imply that at all, but good effort at putting words in my mouth.

We have recessions every decade, it's common enough that we all know it happens.
Without Brexit we'd probably have another one, that's my belief even if it may be wrong.

Seemed pretty clear what you meant

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:54 am

taio wrote:Seemed pretty clear what you meant

Yes, that Brexit is a mere excuse.

taio · Post by **taio** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:58 am

You will see it differently just to trigger a disagreement. Was clear he was saying that there would be a recession at some point in the fairly near future even if we'd never voted to leave the EU. And he's right.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:00 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:Yes, that Brexit is a mere excuse.

Ah you're getting hung up on the use of a word, you've seized it and sticking to it.

Either way recessions happen every decade and have done since just after the war.
I'm not even surprised anymore when it does happen, are you?

I do actually think one would happen without Brexit, and there would be another one between 2020 & 2030.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:01 am

taio wrote:You will see it differently just to trigger a disagreement. Was clear he was saying that there would be a recession at some point in the fairly near future even if we'd never voted to leave the EU. And he's right.

Great news. Then we can do whatever we want and suffer no economic effects ever since recessions will happen anyway. Likewise we can pollute the atmosphere at will because climate change would happen anyway, eventually.

taio · Post by **taio** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:04 am

No we can't because we ought to always be preparing our economy for a downturn. So I disagree with that idea coz it's a dumb one.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:05 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:Great news. Then we can do whatever we want and suffer no economic effects ever since recessions will happen anyway. Likewise we can pollute the atmosphere at will because climate change would happen anyway, eventually.

You posted the link with proof we've had a recession during every decade since the war.

Completely different argument to climate change, so if you want that discussion start another thread, but I don't think we do enough to combat things like emissions etc if it helps.

We can't keep booming and busting, but we've done it for a long time now that it isn't a surprise when it happens due to whatever causes (turns out the yanks are a common cause).

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:06 am

Sidney1st wrote:I just don't rush around waving my arms around blaming Brexit for everything when recessions are a common occurrence already.

Car crashes are a common occurrence already, and have been occurring regularly for decades.

If I drive down the wrong side of a motorway, would it be fair to say that I'd be the cause of the inevitable crash that would ensue? Or should my stupid driving be dismissed because crashes happen all the time?

taio · Post by **taio** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:08 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:Car crashes are a common occurrence already, and have been occurring regularly for decades.

If I drive down the wrong side of a motorway, would it be fair to say that I'd be the cause of the inevitable crash that would ensue? Or should my stupid driving be dismissed because crashes happen all the time?

Clearly it would have been caused by Brexit rather than you.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:10 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:Car crashes are a common occurrence already, and have been occurring regularly for decades.

If I drive down the wrong side of a motorway, would it be fair to say that I'd be the cause of the inevitable crash that would ensue? Or should my stupid driving be dismissed because crashes happen all the time?

What's a with the odd comparisons today??

You'd be the cause because of your stupid driving if that settles that one.

As for recessions they happen every single decade, Turtle was kind enough to post proof, since the 50's.
The country doesn't seem to learn from it, so they keep happening.
It would happen without Brexit, it happened before Brexit and will almost certainly happen after Brexit.
If it wasn't Brexit causing the next one it would probably be due to another collapse in the housing market due to stupidly high prices compared to lower wages, or something similar.
Maybe another banking crisis.
They even think the car financial system will be the next big implosion, this is where people 'lease' a car on finance but they're actually being conned.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:32 am

Some interesting comments above.

Measurement of economic activity is often expressed in terms of the rate of growth. If the rate is negative rather than positive for two quarters we term it a recession. Measurement, per se, does not determine the rate of growth. Governments, by and large, prefer positive growth rather than recession, but their actions do not necessarily lead to or assist growth (and politicians often claim credit for successes that are not theirs to claim).

Economic progress will always include "downturns" when old industries are replaced by new. There is no guarantee that the new industries will be based in the same places as the old; the opposite is more likely as the old industry continues, most likely fighting against decline, while the new establish themselves in other areas.

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:00 pm

Brexit strikes again!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40718892" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UpTheBeehole wrote:Well done Brexit.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:10 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... rexit-data
https://www.ft.com/content/8360ed4a-711 ... bd07df1a3c
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... b-meeting/

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:12 pm

Depending on your political point of view, you can ignore the ones you don't like or don't report what you want to read.

So if you ignore all the newspapers, the media agencies and daft sites like Guido Fawkes and the Canary, what do they say?

You get a better idea from there.

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:33 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Depending on your political point of view, you can ignore the ones you don't like or don't report what you want to read.
So if you ignore all the newspapers, the media agencies and daft sites like Guido Fawkes and the Canary, what do they say?
You get a better idea from there.

Decent post. But you cannot form an opinion by reading "sensible" news reports and taking a hypothetical middle path - you have to decide for yourself using your own discretion.

My link was posted in a sbit of silly ti-for-tat. In the true spirit of the OP

The OP proved nothing, my link proves nothing. Brexit is neither inherently good nor inherently bad. It is what we make of it.

I think we can Brexit a great success for the UK.

"Thanks a lot Brexit."

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:34 pm

We probably could if we had the greatest minds in the country on the task.

Unfortunately we've got David Davis, Theresa May and Boris Johnson.

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:36 pm

Where is the Intelligentsia to lead us ignorant serfs when we need it?

If only, if only there were some real clever metropolitan types to tell me as what to fink and what is good for me.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:43 pm

Well, the Brexiteers ignored the experts didn't they, and now we're led by a couple of backbench chancers and a weak woman who has spectacularly failed in every job she's held.

SussexDon1inIreland · Post by **SussexDon1inIreland** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:44 pm

Actually 'despite' Brexit today there have been three positive announcements Source Guido Fawkes Web Site

A hat-trick of #DespiteBrexit good news today, as three major employers strengthen their commitment to Brexit Britain. EasyJet has announced its largest ever intake of new cabin crew, recruiting an enormous 1,200 extra staff. More than half of that number will be based at London Gatwick. EasyJet became notorious for its sky-high levels of Remain rhetoric before the EU referendum; chief executive Carolyn McCall said Brexit “would not be good at all” for the airline. Good for those extra staff, though…

From the skies to the roads: BMW have announced that the new electric model of the iconic Mini will be manufactured in the UK, not in Germany. The car will be built at the firm’s Cowley plant, near Oxford. Business Secretary Greg Clark said the move was a sign that the UK is now “the go-to place in the world for the next generation of vehicles“. BMW were involved in a letter from car industry executives ‘leaked’ to the Guardian which claimed:

“For BMW Group, more than half of Minis built and virtually all the engines and components made in the UK are exported to the EU, with over 150,000 new cars and many hundreds of thousands of parts imported from Europe each year. Tariff barriers would mean higher costs and higher prices and we cannot assume that the UK would be granted free trade with Europe from outside the EU.”
But now BMW is building its new Mini in Britain…

Amazon, meanwhile, is undertaking a massive expansion of its UK headquarters. The online retailing giant says it will take up the entire 15 floors of a newly constructed building near the City. The firm had planned to only occupy 11; now 450 new staff will work there. Doug Gurr of Amazon UK said:

“The U.K. is a fantastic place to find talent and we feel good about building a global R&D center here. We’re very confident we’ll be able to recruit everyone we need.”
In a staggeringly self-contradictory sentence, Bloomberg reports:

“Amazon is expanding its space in the new building, which features a roof garden and surrounded by new cafes and restaurants, amid nervousness in the property market created by uncertainty over the nature of the U.K.’s divorce from the EU.”

claretdom · Post by **claretdom** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:46 pm

Eventually most people will realise you don't need your hand holding all through life.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:48 pm

"Despite Brexit"

So you're admitting that brexit is a bad thing for the economy? Because that's what "despite Brexit" is saying.

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:50 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:Well, the Brexiteers ignored the experts didn't they, and now we're led by a couple of backbench chancers and a weak woman who has spectacularly failed in every job she's held.

Same "experts" who said Margaret Thatcher's economic policy was disastrous (months before the UK economy bloomed).

Same "experts" who said the UK would end up an economic backwater unless we joined the Euro (before the UK economy had the longest sustained period of growth on record and before the on-going, unresolved Euro-crisis).

Experts, eh?

We give them a bad name by being consistently brighter than they are.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:50 pm

If only, if only there were some real clever metropolitan types to tell me as what to fink and what is good for me.

That better be tongue in cheek Rowls, or you've just reached new levels of belmtardery.

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:52 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:So you're admitting that brexit is a bad thing for the economy? Because that's what "despite Brexit" is saying.

Poe's Law in action here?

Are you being intentionally "funny"?

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:52 pm

three huge companies announcing less than 2000 jobs, the majority of which will be london based.

magic news that.

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:55 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:That better be tongue in cheek Rowls, or you've just reached new levels of belmtardery.

Oh jeez.

According to a lot of the wisdom on here, not a day passes by whereby some anodyne opinion of mine propels me to "new heights" of some subjective level (when I'm not "plumbing new depths" of course). No wonder people think I'm somehow "looking down" on them (I'm never accused of "looking up").

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:01 pm

Is it tongue in cheek or not, or are you now just copying from the hymn book of Farage and Banks?*

*that is their favourite phrase when asked to come up with anything to back up their claims. Is that we've reduced you to?

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:30 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Depending on your political point of view, you can ignore the ones you don't like or don't report what you want to read.

So if you ignore all the newspapers, the media agencies and daft sites like Guido Fawkes and the Canary, what do they say?

You get a better idea from there.

This is how 4 different news outlets have reported Siemens future invest ment in post referendum Britain

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-li ... e-39652751" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; The BBC - positive

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... d-siemens/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The daily telegraph - positive.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/siemens-s ... nty-2017-3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; the business insider - positive.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... rexit-vote" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; - the Guardian - hell in a hand cart

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:36 pm

Rowls wrote:Brexit strikes again!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40718892" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And this comes hot on the heels of jaguar land rover announcing further massive investment in the UK.

What was it that Remoaner and former chancellor said as part of operation fear. Something about confidence evaporating over night , following a vote for Leave!?

Oh yes! This is it-

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... uk-economy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And Remoaners are still lying now.

ClaretEngineer · Post by **ClaretEngineer** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:50 pm

Lucky old Ecomony! I didn't even get that on my wedding night.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:14 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:three huge companies announcing less than 2000 jobs, the majority of which will be london based.

magic news that.

Hi quoon,

Amazon - yes, jobs are in London;
EasyJet - Gatwick is one of London's airports, but is outside the M25, so these jobs not strictly "in London."
BMW/Mini - Oxford is 60+ miles from London.

Other new jobs mentioned on this thread, though reported earlier:
Siemens - Libcoln
Jaguar Land Rover - Birmingham area.

Agree, it would be great to see more jobs in the North West. That will come.

Claret-On-A-T-Rex · Post by **Claret-On-A-T-Rex** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:28 pm

I'm coming to the UK for a visit next Friday, can't wait, the way things are going I'll be able to get two quid per Euro

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:37 pm

Is it any wonder that the country is going down the pan with so many people, no doubt in comfortable well paid jobs enjoying running the country down so they can say "told you so". For those of us working for themselves the down turn is a real problem, not merely something to gloat about.

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:08 pm

Brexit is killing this country. We can't survive without a friendly Europe to take our crap at inflated prices and supply labour at low prices.

...and the Tories are clueless, headless chickens.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:11 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Hi quoon,

Amazon - yes, jobs are in London;
EasyJet - Gatwick is one of London's airports, but is outside the M25, so these jobs not strictly "in London."
BMW/Mini - Oxford is 60+ miles from London.

Other new jobs mentioned on this thread, though reported earlier:
Siemens - Libcoln
Jaguar Land Rover - Birmingham area.

Agree, it would be great to see more jobs in the North West. That will come.

Toyota announced £240,000,000 upgrade of their plant in Derbyshire in March.

Vino blanco · Post by **Vino blanco** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:29 pm

After reading the opening post, I immediately slashed my wrists. I think I have killed myself but I can't be sure. Bloody Brexit, heh?

Walton · Post by **Walton** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:42 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Toyota announced £240,000,000 upgrade of their plant in Derbyshire in March.

Dependent on tariff-free trade

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:52 pm

Even if Brexit resulted in mass extinction for mankind, it would of been worth it just for some people's reactions on here

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:22 pm

Walton wrote:Dependent on tariff-free trade

Well, that will be easily achievable in the UK at least. The anti-Brexit people are telling us that German cars are going to be hit with a double whammy of terrible exchange rates AND huge tariffs, thus adding perhaps 25% to the list price; this opens up a huge hole in the market for British-built cars. Great opportunity for Toyota, especially as imports from Japan have no reason to change.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:23 pm

Walton wrote:Dependent on tariff-free trade

From how I understand it, the £240,000,000 is not dependent on tariff free trade.

The massive investment will go ahead, regardless.

The CEO appears to WANT tariff free trade. But this investment goes ahead anyway.

""Our investment demonstrates that, as a company, we are doing all we can to raise the competitiveness of our Burnaston plant in Derbyshire," President and CEO of Toyota Motor Europe Dr Johan van Zyl said.

"Continued tariff-and-barrier free market access between the UK and Europe vital for future success' says car manufacturer's president.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 33736.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It sounds as if tariff free trade is desirable but the investment is not dependent on it.

This was announced in March. Sky news included the Toyota investment in a bulletin about the new BMW Mini.

And to think the Remoaners on here scoffed, at the suggestion that the Germans would invest in England before Germany!

BennyD · Post by **BennyD** » Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:37 am

dsr wrote:Well, that will be easily achievable in the UK at least. The anti-Brexit people are telling us that German cars are going to be hit with a double whammy of terrible exchange rates AND huge tariffs, thus adding perhaps 25% to the list price; this opens up a huge hole in the market for British-built cars. Great opportunity for Toyota, especially as imports from Japan have no reason to change.

A positive post? Bloody Brexit.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:54 am

Paul Waine wrote:Hi quoon,

Amazon - yes, jobs are in London;
EasyJet - Gatwick is one of London's airports, but is outside the M25, so these jobs not strictly "in London."
BMW/Mini - Oxford is 60+ miles from London.

Other new jobs mentioned on this thread, though reported earlier:
Siemens - Libcoln
Jaguar Land Rover - Birmingham area.

Agree, it would be great to see more jobs in the North West. That will come.

hi paul, thanks for the geography lesson.

the south east is basically london these days so lets not quibble about where the airport is

the mini thing is irrelevant because there's nothing new coming from it. they're just continuing to build the car there as it makes sense not to move it. they aren't even making the batteries there, they'll still be shipped in so i'd expect that to be revisited when they find out what tariffs they'll have to pay.

all three of yesterday's 'positive' news items are meaningless in the grand scheme of things. if bmw had decided to base production of a new model here with 1000s of jobs created, that would be worth shouting about.

i wish i shared your confidence that jobs will be coming to the north. as we've seen this week with the rail announcements, its pretty clear where this shitheap of a government's priorities lie. and its not anywhere north of watford.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:58 am

All HS2 will do is move the commuters to London into the areas where they currently are not.

That not a problem in itself, but it does seem a ridiculously expensive way doing it.

RocketLawnChair · Post by **RocketLawnChair** » Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:05 am

quoonbeatz wrote:all three of yesterday's 'positive' news items are meaningless.

Yet every time we get a 'negative' news item it's taken as gospel by some on here.