Burnley should be 6th

[MACCA]

Dumb and dumber

Look at me, look at me, I've got a screen to hide behind, so I can dish out insults left, right and centre when people dont agree with me.

But you've form it to be fair, so at least you're a consistent coward if nothing else.

[TVC15]

Look at me, look at me, I've got a screen to hide behind, so I can dish out insults left, right and centre when people dont agree with me.

But you've form it to be fair, so at least you're a consistent coward if nothing else.

You’re hilarious

[MACCA]

You’re hilarious

As I've learnt and said before, you're right.

[TVC15]

As I've learnt and said before, you're right.

That’ll learn me

[MACCA]

That’ll learn me

As much as itd please you, I won't hold my breath

[TVC15]

Wooosh

[MACCA]

Wooosh

You're right

[jrgbfc]

Dumb and dumber

Come on then, seeing as you're clearly way more intelligent than most of us mere mortals on here can you explain why it's useful? The fact that the better teams tend to create more chances is hardly earth shattering news is it?

[Tall Paul]

Is it just a case of comparing our expected goals for against their expected goals against that makes you say that?
Never looked at these before but always good to have an edge when placing a bet.

It's not quite as simple as that, but that's one aspect of it. The models give us a higher chance of winning than the bookies odds suggest. Although it's unlikely that the edge is that great, an edge is an edge.

I'm not totally convinced that the models know better than the bookies, but it's been a reasonably successful betting strategy for me this season.

[Bordeauxclaret]

It's not quite as simple as that, but that's one aspect of it. The models give us a higher chance of winning than the bookies odds suggest. Although it's unlikely that the edge is that great, an edge is an edge.

I'm not totally convinced that the models know better than the bookies, but it's been a reasonably successful betting strategy for me this season.

Absolutely.

I’ve seen it on the screen during MOTD but never paid much attention to it.
I’ll have a check of it properly before I stick them on.

[Lancasterclaret]

Interesting

One thing this does show is that the models think we are a good team.

Its interesting, because when we finished 7th we were definitely "model busting" and it was mentioned on numerous occasions.

[TVC15]

Interesting

One thing this does show is that the models think we are a good team.

Its interesting, because when we finished 7th we were definitely "model busting" and it was mentioned on numerous occasions.

We were ahead on a lot of the running statistics and also of course on minimal changes to the team. We also had a very good year in terms of injuries and suspensions.

I don’t know our expected goals for and against stats that season but I guess like you say we bucked the trend. We know our defence and keeper were outstanding that year blocking and saving many great chances and we also won a lot of tight games when we were under pressure.

That’s why these stats are probably more useful over a longer period of time as there will be more of a correlation with league position in the majority of cases - again it’s pretty logical really in the context that your “luck” runs out or you pick up injuries / lose players which is what essentially happened to us (and the Europa league of course)....to buck the trend you need a bit of a perfect storm with all the other things that matter.

[Tall Paul]

Interesting

One thing this does show is that the models think we are a good team.

Its interesting, because when we finished 7th we were definitely "model busting" and it was mentioned on numerous occasions.

Yes, we were model busting, we overperformed xG by 13 points that season, and sure enough, it wasn't sustainable (although we were terrible in the second half of the following season by any measure).

[aggi]

I seem to remember our actual goals conceded was way lower than the xGA when we came 7th.

There were theories that this was due to our different style of defending. Getting men onto the line to block the shot, using covering defenders to funnel the shots at the keeper, etc. meant that a shot from a position with usually high xG would be lower for us.

It's obviously not a good measure for one-off games but in the long-term most teams seem to revert roughly to what you'd expect from the model.

https://understat.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; has some good stuff on it.

[Dyched]

So they’ve analysed 300,000 shots to come up with this theory.

Shots by whom? When? What weather conditions? What footwear? What type of football was used? What was the speed of the pass/cross that went to the shooting player? What was the height of it?

All these things matter when it comes to a goalscoring opportunity.