Burnley fans being over-optimistic?

[boatshed bill]

- We have a new inexperienced manager.
- The playing squad has been totally overhauled
- We’ve lost a number of our best players
- We are quite likely to lose more of our best players (it’s a guess, but again a realistic view)
- We have signed young and inexperienced players from lower levels
- We currently don’t have a goalkeeper of sufficient quality to win promotion
- We currently don’t have a striker of sufficient quality to win promotion
- We are likely to make a few more signings before the end of the window, but it’s reasonable to think that these signings will be in a similar mould to the ones we’ve already made.
- Only 3 teams out of 24 can get promoted

Based on all of the above, I think it’s entirely realistic to suggest that winning promotion next season is unlikely. And I would say that it is optimistic to expect us to win promotion.

A few of those factors may well change before the end of the transfer window. The situation could become more favourable, it could even become less favourable. Who knows.

That's fairly close to correct:
But i would add:
we've shed a bit of the old deadwood
For all we know we've signed some real potential

[RVclaret]

- We have a new inexperienced manager.
- The playing squad has been totally overhauled
- We’ve lost a number of our best players
- We are quite likely to lose more of our best players (it’s a guess, but again a realistic view)
- We have signed young and inexperienced players from lower levels
- We currently don’t have a goalkeeper of sufficient quality to win promotion
- We currently don’t have a striker of sufficient quality to win promotion
- We are likely to make a few more signings before the end of the window, but it’s reasonable to think that these signings will be in a similar mould to the ones we’ve already made.
- Only 3 teams out of 24 can get promoted

Based on all of the above, I think it’s entirely realistic to suggest that winning promotion next season is unlikely. And I would say that it is optimistic to expect us to win promotion.

A few of those factors may well change before the end of the transfer window. The situation could become more favourable, it could even become less favourable. Who knows.

Forest had 7 new players in their team at the start of the season, took 1 point from their first 7, changed managers and won promotion.

The signings of ‘similar mould’ - I hope they are, that would be superb and reinforce my view that we can achieve promotion.

[Rileybobs]

You do realise the transfer window hasn’t ended yet?

Yes. If you read my post you’d see that unbelievably I do actually realise that. We can only base our predictions on where we are now and where we expect to be at the end of the window - as I also made pretty clear in my post.

[Rileybobs]

Forest had 7 new players in their team at the start of the season, took 1 point from their first 7, changed managers and won promotion.

The signings of ‘similar mould’ - I hope they are, that would be superb and reinforce my view that we can achieve promotion.

Derby had loads of new players too, didn’t they? I didn’t say we can’t achieve promotion, just that I believe it to be unlikely. I don’t think it’s such an ‘out there’ view.

[RVclaret]

Derby had loads of new players too, didn’t they? I didn’t say we can’t achieve promotion, just that I believe it to be unlikely. I don’t think it’s such an ‘out there’ view.

I’d say Derby’s situation is a million times different to ours right now.

I also don’t think to suggest promotion is more than possible is an ‘out there’ view.

[AfloatinClaret]

...a lot of Burnley fans... making really positive forecasts re the new season... Is there not a danger that having such high hopes they might quickly turn to disappointment...?

Surely that's what being a football fan (especially a Burnley one) is all about. If you can't be positive/excited/optimistic and dare I say it happy, in July, what chance have you got in February? All you can do then (just like you do with your summer holiday) is start looking forward to the next summer pre-season/transfer window and treat those odd seasons which go well as being like the occasional years when you're flush and can afford an extra winter/skiing holiday too.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Derby had loads of new players too, didn’t they? I didn’t say we can’t achieve promotion, just that I believe it to be unlikely. I don’t think it’s such an ‘out there’ view.

Was that Derby who were scrambling around to sign whoever they could for as little as possible due to their embargo and ended up with players like Ravel Morrison etc?

Yeah, not even comparable.

[Milltown1882]

Was that Derby who were scrambling around to sign whoever they could for as little as possible due to their embargo and ended up with players like Ravel Morrison etc?

Yeah, not even comparable.

That also lost players six months in because they weren’t allowed to extend contracts. Any contrast between us right now and Derby is completely thick.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

That also lost players six months in because they weren’t allowed to extend contracts. Any contrast between us right now and Derby is completely thick.

I'd forgotten about that one, makes the comparison even more absurd

[kentonclaret]

Forest had 7 new players in their team at the start of the season, took 1 point from their first 7, changed managers and won promotion.

The signings of ‘similar mould’ - I hope they are, that would be superb and reinforce my view that we can achieve promotion.

At the start of the season Forest were 11/2 (best price William Hill generally 9/2 or 5/1) to gain promotion. You can only imagine what price they must have drifted out to after taking just 1 point from the opening 7 fixtures! Not worth taking an early punt on the Clarets unless you think we are going to come flying out of the traps.

[Rileybobs]

Was that Derby who were scrambling around to sign whoever they could for as little as possible due to their embargo and ended up with players like Ravel Morrison etc?

Yeah, not even comparable.

I think some of you really struggle. RV used the example of Forest being promoted after starting the season with 7 new players. So I showed the flip side of that. Just because a team got promoted having made such significant changes to their team doesn’t mean that it is a recipe for success. Obviously Derby aren’t comparable with Burnley, just like Forest aren’t. And as RV pointed out, Forest sacked their manager after a handful of games which I’m guessing isn’t in our blueprint.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

I think some of you really struggle. RV used the example of Forest being promoted after starting the season with 7 new players. So I showed the flip side of that. Just because a team got promoted having made such significant changes to their team doesn’t mean that it is a recipe for success. Obviously Derby aren’t comparable with Burnley, just like Forest aren’t. And as RV pointed out, Forest sacked their manager after a handful of games which I’m guessing isn’t in our blueprint.

So if Derby obviously aren't comparable, why try to use them as a comparison?
I'm not the one struggling with anything, that would be you.

[Rileybobs]

So if Derby obviously aren't comparable, why try to use them as a comparison?
I'm not the one struggling with anything, that would be you.

If you read my post you will see that I haven’t compared Derby to Burnley. Some of you seem to be diving into responses without reading posts properly, or understanding the context in which they were written (ie, the post quoted).

[kentonclaret]

The 3 clubs relegated from the PL last season were the 3 lowest scoring clubs.

The 3 clubs promoted from the Championship last season happened to be the 3 highest scoring clubs.

Although Huddersfield finished one place above Forest they finished the season scoring 64 goals, some way short of the 73 scored by Forest.

IF we harbour realistic dreams of promotion a prolific striker MUST be a priority.

[Spiral]

I'm just hoping to be entertained this season. Results are what they are. I've no clue how this season is going to pan out because I've literally never heard of half of the lads we've signed. I'd be surprised if we were around the play-offs. Were we to have done what we did the last time we were relegated and kept most of the squad we'd be favourites, but we neglected the squad for a few seasons and so find ourselves with old players leaving because we don't want them, some good players leaving for free because we can't hold on to them, and other talent available for bargain prices (Pope, Collins, Cornet). The reality is that such immense rebuilds more often than not take time to bear fruit. Crystal Palace-type situations where it clicks practically overnight are novel, I think.

Under those conditions promotion seems a pipe dream. Aggressive attacking football has been a bit sparse the last three seasons or so. In general Burnley has been a bit of a slog to watch post-Europa, with the odd decent game or spurt of form coming along every once in a while to keep me from sacking it off altogether. So if we're looking clear of relegation by the spring and most importantly we're trying to play with aggression, I'll be content to view this season as a platform to build on. I'll be okay with a bit of tippy-tappy if that's what the system Vinny wants to play dictates, but I don't think I can bear to watch a season of us playing not to lose. Lets take some risks on the pitch, please.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

If you read my post you will see that I haven’t compared Derby to Burnley. Some of you seem to be diving into responses without reading posts properly, or understanding the context in which they were written (ie, the post quoted).

If you read my post you'll see I didn't mention Burnley as the comparison.

Just give it up, it was a naff comparison and you're just digging yourself a bigger hole trying to get out of it.

[Rileybobs]

If you read my post you'll see I didn't mention Burnley as the comparison.

Just give it up, it was a naff comparison and you're just digging yourself a bigger hole trying to get out of it.

It. Wasn’t. A. Comparison.

[Billy Balfour]

Most people I know are being way over-optimistic. Many saying a top 6 finish is the minimum for a relegated EPL club, but they aren't taking into account that we had an aged EPL squad that had been starved of funds for years, along with the fact that most of the cream has left/leaving.


This isn't just a renovation project, it's a full rebuild on limited resources. A strip down, head skim, rebore, and replaced all the bearings with parts of unknown quality. A two season project to get everything running smoothly, if all the parts work out and don't fail.

Mid-table finish with entertaining football is my expectation. Anything better, and I'll be extremely happy. The season after this one is the one that counts and will decide our long term future.

[tiger76]

Optimism is natural at the outset of the season, but I fear many Burnley fans are setting their expectations too high given the scale of the change, new manager, practically a new squad, and also a a brand new style of play, plus many of those new signings lack Championship experience, plus the key spine of the team we've lost, especially in defence.

I hope we can challenge for a PO place, but I'm in the camp who'll be happy simply to allow our new signings to gel, and this is a long term project, so patience is vital, my concern is if we aren't challenging near the top of the table come the new year, Kompany will come under pressure from elements of our fanbase.

The things which excite me regarding this coming season is apart from the promising new signings, who'll finally provide youthful endeavour, and maybe get fans out of their seats by playing an attacking brand of football, is that it appears our own youth prospects will be given a fair crack of the whip, something which wasn't the case under the previous manager rightly or wrongly.

My ambitions for the campaign are to maybe finish top 10, and take both domestic clubs seriously for once, a cup run always generates a buzz for any club, and we're long overdue one of those.

[RVclaret]

Answer to the OP

- yes I think there is some over-optimism, however people are entitled to do so after what's been a miserable couple of years watching us
- suggestions we will 'p*** the league' which I've seen on twitter or walk the league as I've seen on here do seem quite unrealistic
- however if we keep this exact team as it stands right now and add more quality, maybe we could be seen as a favourite for auto, however...

My own thoughts

- it's still hard to know what expectation to have given there's 7 weeks left in the window.
- if we start the season with a completely new back 5, and central midfield, it's hard to see how we can gel soon enough and find the consistency required.
- my hunch is that the club are on 'operation lower wage bill' to bring it down to a sustainable level - basically it needs to be on a big downwards trend - i am sure that is a requirement of the lenders, to know their money will be paid back. Many clubs that mess up, it's because of the wage bill.
- this would mean more sales of the PL wage players (despite the cuts, they'll still be biggish for this league) and why I don't believe they will targeting the much craved 'quality experience' people want (as it costs)
- but i'm also very happy with the incomings so far and would be more than happy if we repeat this kind of business to fill more holes.
- also i'm excited to see a better brand of football and watch some young talented players (inc some of our own existing u23s) develop under Kompany.
- i am cautiously optimistic of a good season where we 'could' compete for the top 2 but i think a top 6 finish would be impressive (if my above hunch plays out)

[Lancasterclaret]

You do realise the transfer window hasn’t ended yet?

Yes

That doesn't change any of the points being raised by the post does it?

[RVclaret]

Quite like this quote from Josh Cullen

'I trust the manager to put together a well-rounded squad here who can go and challenge'

It kinda represents where I’m at

[elwaclaret]

I think the outgoings have been inevitable and the recruitment has been focused and sensible.

Get the team spirit going and a couple of incomings I think we’ll be around the play-offs and growing. I’ve seen nothing to suggest this summer has not been as expected, disappointing to see so many stars leave but not surprising.

I expect a stuttering start and then surge as players find their feet… yes I think we can win promotion, but I’m glad we’re not counting on it.

[nyclaret]

Yes

That doesn't change any of the points being raised by the post does it?

Why can’t people just calm down and see where we’re at come September?

[Lancasterclaret]

Why can’t people just calm down and see where we’re at come September?

Everyone is calm

The reality is that we are having a massive squad overhaul and that will take time for everyone to gel and that they can't replace what we've lost

They might over time, but straight away?

Not a hope

If it helps, I put THB and Cullen in the "ready to go now", Twine and McNally in the "will need time but no reason why they can't be v good championship players", Bastien in the "worth a gamble, could be brilliant, could be completely anonymous" and CEK in the "will need time buts its a gamble worth taking"

Just want to make sure that they are given the time and the support that they need

[Quickenthetempo]

I was very optimistic, but Alan Pace is slowly strangling every last drop out by selling our stars for peanuts.

The outside world seem to know we're a sinking ship, but it's taking us Clarets a little time to believe.

[claretonthecoast1882]

Over optimistic is a bit of a stretch.

Reading posts on this thread and board in general, I would more say it is more glass 80% empty and a hole in the bottom of the glass

[Tribesmen]

Just love the first game of the season everyone starts level and you just never know what will happen but you always hope for the best .

Now going back a good few decades , i used to run up the stairs at the Bee Hole End so i could see the ground again in all it's wonder and my eyes would sparkle at how green and perfect the grass was .

[Dyched]

I’m more excited than optimistic. Perhaps better football, younger exciting players, new manager and finally football back to some normality eg 3pm Saturday, 7.45pm Tuesday.

The only out going that disappoints is Ben Mee tbh. Tarks was always going to and Collins? Well isn’t that what we want to do? Buy players, sell for profit? Obviously we’d have liked more for him and had him longer. Cornet I think will probably go and I’m not fully convinced McNeil will. He needs a really good season in the Championship I feel. He hasn’t be great for quite a while now.

UTC

[IanMcL]

Too many changes.

[bfcmik]

The 3 clubs relegated from the PL last season were the 3 lowest scoring clubs.

The 3 clubs promoted from the Championship last season happened to be the 3 highest scoring clubs.

Although Huddersfield finished one place above Forest they finished the season scoring 64 goals, some way short of the 73 scored by Forest.

IF we harbour realistic dreams of promotion a prolific striker MUST be a priority.

I think a big plus for us is that we can hope for more goals from midfield then we have had for several years. If you look at the promoted clubs they had lots of goals from midfielders and defenders to top up what their strikers managed.

Also, both Bashley and JRod may thrive against the slightly more open Championship defenders rather than the already tuned in defences they faced in the Premier League.

[jojomk1]

With the current squad the positions at the centre back area shows a lot of inexperience (mind just as important as well as skills)

If Ben Davies is available from Liverpool he has a wealth of experience at Championship level and would seem to be an ideal starter alongside someone like Harwood-Bellis

With the amount of knowledge from Pope, Tarks and Mee we were relatively strong at the back in the past but, whilst I applaud the summer signings with the future in mind, I worry that two new guys together from the start of the season could be too much to ask

And yes I still only see long as back up - unless Kompany can see other things

[evensteadiereddie]

I was very optimistic, but Alan Pace is slowly strangling every last drop out by selling our stars for peanuts.

The outside world seem to know we're a sinking ship, but it's taking us Clarets a little time to believe.
[/quote

[Culmclaret]

If you are not optimistic there is very little enjoyment to be had from being a football fan of any club outside the big four. I have been critical of the new owners up to now but this looks like a fresh start after a much loved old product had gone horribly stale. I am looking forward to a seeing a style of football closer to that with which we used to be associated as a club.

[Joe14]

We just have to be realistic. My prediction is championship winners next season, top 7 Premier League finish season after, Europa league season after and Champions League the following season. Keep it real and don’t expect too much

[KRBFC]

Your view is that the level of player we are signing is not really that great, my view is that the level of player we are signing is just fine.

But you haven't even really seen them play? is it not more realistic to wait until you've seen them play before making daft suggestions like top 2.

[RVclaret]

But you haven't even really seen them play? is it not more realistic to wait until you've seen them play before making daft suggestions like top 2.

Seen some of them play, done a lot of research on others. Easy to get a good understanding on the level of players these days if you know the right places to look. Particularly with data becoming more prevalent.

You are right that we need to also see them play together etc to have more clarity. Though from the outside, I’m seeing a lot of pundits / analysts being very impressed with our business so far. Kinda like Palace’s window last summer, I was personally very impressed and thought that recruitment set them up for a good season, whereas others thought they were doomed and relegation certs with Viera.

[KRBFC]

Seen some of them play, done a lot of research on others. Easy to get a good understanding on the level of players these days if you know the right places to look. Particularly with data becoming more prevalent.

You are right that we need to also see them play together etc to have more clarity. Though from the outside, I’m seeing a lot of pundits / analysts being very impressed with our business so far. Kinda like Palace’s window last summer, I was personally very impressed and thought that recruitment set them up for a good season, whereas others thought they were doomed and relegation certs with Viera.

I also thought Palace did great business last summer but that's because I'd seen all of their signings actually play 20+ times each. I worry the 3 defenders we've got are all really really inexperienced in a back 4.

[SouthLondonexile]

Well I would say I’m being realistic. So long as we have a decent set of forwards, fit and raring to go I’d say we have reason to be satisfied.
Selling Collins was a bit of a blow, at 21 I don’t think he was going to hold the line securely without Ben and James.
However, in God and Vincent I trust.
Can we please get some decent Belgian beer and a couple frite Vans with decent mayo into the ground.

[bfcmik]

With the current squad the positions at the centre back area shows a lot of inexperience (mind just as important as well as skills)

With the amount of knowledge from Pope, Tarks and Mee we were relatively strong at the back in the past but, whilst I applaud the summer signings with the future in mind, I worry that two new guys together from the start of the season could be too much to ask

And yes I still only see long as back up - unless Kompany can see other things

Egan-Riley and Harwood Bellis have played together many times in City's very successful u23s and well as spending lots of time training together, if they don't know each other's game by now they never will, so it is not like signing a couple of players who have never seen each other before. McNally, Long and Thomas are decent back ups - I know many people have their grievances with Long but he hasn't really let us down that I can immediately recall. Cullen is an excellent defensive midfielder in front of them, especially if we go to 3 at the back.

Goalkeeper is the one that worries me a little, gone from having a surfeit of riches to mere decent keepers almost overnight

[Newcastleclaret93]

Egan-Riley and Harwood Bellis have played together many times in City's very successful u23s and well as spending lots of time training together, if they don't know each other's game by now they never will, so it is not like signing a couple of players who have never seen each other before. McNally, Long and Thomas are decent back ups - I know many people have their grievances with Long but he hasn't really let us down that I can immediately recall. Cullen is an excellent defensive midfielder in front of them, especially if we go to 3 at the back.

Goalkeeper is the one that worries me a little, gone from having a surfeit of riches to mere decent keepers almost overnight

From what I can see online Egan Riley and THB have only played together twice?

[GodIsADeeJay81]

From what I can see online Egan Riley and THB have only played together twice?

They were in the same youth set up for a number of years weren't they?
It's more than likely they played together more than twice in the youth system.

[Newcastleclaret93]

They were in the same youth set up for a number of years weren't they?
It's more than likely they played together more than twice in the youth system.

They were in the same set up but slightly different age groups.

From what I can see THB was in the u23s when Riley was in u19s and u21s.

Then when Riley was in u23s, THB was on loan at various clubs. I had a look at the season they over lapped and it looks like they had 2 games together.

[jojomk1]

They were in the same youth set up for a number of years weren't they?
It's more than likely they played together more than twice in the youth system.

Playing together in a youth system (if they did indeed), is nothing like playing together at Championship level

HB has some experience from loans but ER has none

McNally has had one season at League 1 level

[Zom Zom]

There’s been some serious changes, but I am less concerned about going into the new season with our younger, fresher group than I would have been with the staid same old.

I’m fairly optimistic, and looking forward to a brand of football that perhaps we have not seen from a Burnley side for quite some time. It might work a treat, it might not, but at least it’s a new approach which adds a little excitement in itself.

Let’s see where it takes us.

[mikeS]

Looking forward to seeing the next generation Burnley side, a young, hungry, settled team, playing good football, and 50 points on the board ASAP.

[tiger76]

There’s been some serious changes, but I am less concerned about going into the new season with our younger, fresher group than I would have been with the staid same old.

I’m fairly optimistic, and looking forward to a brand of football that perhaps we have not seen from a Burnley side for quite some time. It might work a treat, it might not, but at least it’s a new approach which adds a little excitement in itself.

Let’s see where it takes us.

The whole squad needed a shake up, and that would have been true even if we'd remained in the PL.

Far too many in their comfort zones at Burnley, and also too many on big wages who weren't pulling their weight, plus who had little or no resale value, that model couldn't continue as it wasn't viable in the long run.

Yes this new approach carries risk, but I prefer us to undertake the rebuild in this manner, than carry on down recruiting ageing senior pros.

For me if it takes 2 years to gain promotion then fine, as long as we're moving in the right direction and playing some decent attractive football with a hungry youthful side I'll be happy, at least it's something different after the past 2 years of slow decline.

Let's just get behind the lads next season and embrace this change, it might take time, but I'm confident it will pay dividends in the long term if we stay patient, and allow the process to run it's course.

[dsr]

One thing football supporters need to learn - even Burnley fans after a successful 30 years or so - is to get your optimism in early. Dreaming of winning the league is fun, and it's easier to do before the season starts than it is when you're bottom at Christmas.

[Dingo]

I think we can distinguish between optimism about the process we're now undertaking and optimism about the outcome. The direction we're now going in under VK/AP feels right to me as if it works then over time we'll have all the right conditions in place for longer term sustainability whilst also being competitive. Whether it produces immediate results or not, and ultimately promotion in a year or two (or relegation), remains to be seen, but I can see VK putting together a well organised team with a clear plan (as we saw with Dyche last time we were promoted, just a different style) and that level of organisation makes me think we can be do well over the next 12 months. But if you listen to the comments of our new signings, my impression is that behind the scenes the club/VK is telling them that promotion next season is the immediate aim, so we might as well hope for that too!

[KRBFC]

I think we can distinguish between optimism about the process we're now undertaking and optimism about the outcome. The direction we're now going in under VK/AP feels right to me as if it works then over time we'll have all the right conditions in place for longer term sustainability whilst also being competitive. Whether it produces immediate results or not, and ultimately promotion in a year or two (or relegation), remains to be seen, but I can see VK putting together a well organised team with a clear plan (as we saw with Dyche last time we were promoted, just a different style) and that level of organisation makes me think we can be do well over the next 12 months. But if you listen to the comments of our new signings, my impression is that behind the scenes the club/VK is telling them that promotion next season is the immediate aim, so we might as well hope for that too!

We can't become sustainable in the Championship, we need PL football.