#politicslive

Guich · Post by **Guich** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:32 am

Yes, but mathematically speaking, doesn't it all depend when you hop over from being young to old?

I'm still young by your reckoning but my lad doesn't think that

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:47 am

dsr wrote:But the other major flaw is in your logic, and I see why you don't want to argue it. You say that in two years, there isn't enough time for people to change their mind, so over a two year period there is certain to be a swing towards Remain; in a longer period, eg. 40 years, there can be a swing to Leave as there was between 1974 and 2016.

A forty year period is made up of 20 two-year periods. Every one of those two year periods, by your argument, is too short for a people to change their minds - there is a guaranteed swing to Remain. So for 20 consecutive periods we get a swing to Remain, but then at the end there has been a swing to Leave? That doesn't work under any arithmetic.

You’re using that as an argument against someone’s logic? Seriously?

Caballo · Post by **Caballo** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:53 am

Caballo wrote:And everyone in the middle is getting older. What's that saying, If you're not a socialist a 20 you've got no heart, if you're still one at forty, you've got no brain.

aggi wrote:I discussed this with Ringo previously. He struggled a bit with how to categorise the genius socialist Stephen Hawking ...

I think it's general consensus rather than an absolute fact aggi.

Chobulous · Post by **Chobulous** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:02 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:Based on 2m more young (18-24 )and 2m fewer old people (65+) and based on young people turnout of 64% and 90% for the old people the net gain for remain would be

There is a fundamental flaw here unless I am very much mistaken. The new demographic to consider is not young people 18-24 it is young people 18-19 ie those young people who were too young to vote at the last referendum but are now old enough to vote. Those who are now 20-24 were old enough to vote then so cannot be included in this new demographic.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:06 am

Chobulous wrote:There is a fundamental flaw here unless I am very much mistaken. The new demographic to consider is not young people 18-24 it is young people 18-19 ie those young people who were too young to vote at the last referendum but are now old enough to vote. Those who are now 20-24 were old enough to vote then so cannot be included in this new demographic.

Despite the figures and workings out of people on here the people who have the real figures have done the working out and said demographics point to a remain majority. That’s the story. The figures on here are irrelevant.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:07 am

Chobulous wrote:There is a fundamental flaw here unless I am very much mistaken. The new demographic to consider is not young people 18-24 it is young people 18-19 ie those young people who were too young to vote at the last referendum but are now old enough to vote. Those who are now 20-24 were old enough to vote then so cannot be included in this new demographic.

Which age bracket do you suppose those 18 and 19 year olds would fall into when yougov does their poll to measure voting tendencies of the following age groups:

a) 18-24
2) 25-49
3) 50-64
d) 65+

You have all three lifelines intact.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:15 am

That was more condescending than I intended it to be. I don't care enough to apologise, only enough to acknowledge it.

But to explain simply, I wasn't including 20-24 year olds. I was only counting the 2 million new young voters and i applied the voting tendencies of the age bracket that they would fall in to to estimate the voting tendency of these new 2 million voters.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:15 am

Those who are now 20-24 were old enough to vote then so cannot be included in this new demographic.

No, but they are still in the 75% remain bracket.

it only swings above 50% to leave at 50+ (and only just then), it only gets to 75% leave at 70+ (I think)

Putting it bluntly, people can change their minds, but you can't vote if you are dead.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:19 am

Seems the only way to resolve this is a second referendum!

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:23 am

martin_p wrote:Seems the only way to resolve this is a second referendum!

And thEn whAt? BEst Of fIvE? bEst Of sEvEn? WhEn ArE yOU gOIng tO rEspEct thE LArgEst EvEr ExprEssIOn Of dEmOcrAcy thE wOrLd hAs EvEr sEEn?

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:24 am

John Bercow-

Back in november I pointed out that his position should have been untenable following the QC lead independent parliamentary inquiry into bullying in Westminster. Female MPs who claimed they were lifelong campaigners for women , left women's groups bewildered, when they saved Bercow from being sacked. Emily Thornbury and Margaret Beckett both openly admitted he had to be kept in place in order to " Stop Brexit " This is an establishment and political class, stitch up when they claimed "Brexit is more important than bullying!"

I said his role would be "pivotal"

And low and behold we saw what happened in parliament last week. Rather than apply the rules as they were, and had been for hundreds of years, he over turned years of parliamentary procedural process and allowed an amendment by arch Remoaner, Dominic Grieve, to a motion, that he'd previously told Peter Bone , brexiteer, was " NOT AMENDABLE" !

When I made my prediction I was told "you do know he's just there to facilitate parliament"

Since then, he decided to to choose an amendment this week , that made reference to the Irish Backstop, that was seen by many commentators as having the ability to galvanise the Tories.

He's now probably going to be denied a peerage for his blatant bias, and failure to do his job of being referee and simply tearing the rule book up and just doing what he can to co-conspire with Remoaners.

Not one to boast, but he really has been "pivotal" And I really have been a Mystic McCartney!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:24 am

HOW DARE YOU MOCK DEMOCRACY

IF WE DONT GET OUT WAY, WE WILL BE ON THE STREET AND WE' WILL FORCE THIS ON PEOPLE COS WE ARE THAT DEMOCRATIC.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:30 am

A lot of students registered to vote before the 2017 election, and as we know played an important part in several university towns. I wouldn't discount their influence in a second referendum.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:31 am

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/fo ... -190296737" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

More info on Norway +

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:35 am

You've gotta love a group of people who quite rightly despise Bercow for being a bully and want him to lose his job, but at the same time are big Trump fans.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:43 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:John Bercow-

Back in november I pointed out that his position should have been untenable following the QC lead independent parliamentary inquiry into bullying in Westminster. Female MPs who claimed they were lifelong campaigners for women , left women's groups bewildered, when they saved Bercow from being sacked. Emily Thornbury and Margaret Beckett both openly admitted he had to be kept in place in order to " Stop Brexit " This is an establishment and political class, stitch up when they claimed "Brexit is more important than bullying!"

I said his role would be "pivotal"

And low and behold we saw what happened in parliament last week. Rather than apply the rules as they were, and had been for hundreds of years, he over turned years of parliamentary procedural process and allowed an amendment by arch Remoaner, Dominic Grieve, to a motion, that he'd previously told Peter Bone , brexiteer, was " NOT AMENDABLE" !

When I made my prediction I was told "you do know he's just there to facilitate parliament"

Since then, he decided to to choose an amendment this week , that made reference to the Irish Backstop, that was seen by many commentators as having the ability to galvanise the Tories.

He's now probably going to be denied a peerage for his blatant bias, and failure to do his job of being referee and simply tearing the rule book up and just doing what he can to co-conspire with Remoaners.

Not one to boast, but he really has been "pivotal" And I really have been a Mystic McCartney!

.
You have very much been a Mystic McCartney (I thought about this last week), but I still like John Bercow and think he's a very good speaker. I'm not aware of the bullying allegations against him, but I know that several Tory MPs who have major sexual harassment allegations against them have been given back the whip (no pun intended) by the Tories, so whatever it is he doesn't deserve to lose his job.

Someone said earlier that Bercow is bigoted and incompetent, but the real reason Tories hate him is because he hasn't let them run the rule over parliament. He's stood up for opposition parties in the face of Tory tyranny. As a leaver I would have thought this would resonate with you.

android · Post by **android** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:48 am

Ringo - you were right about Bercow and I did make that point in your absence. Welcome back to you and IT!

On the 2nd ref, I get the demographics point but I have a genuine question. Do you actually know Leave voters who have changed their mind? I don't know any who have. I do know a good number of Remain voters who would vote Leave in a 2nd ref (mainly to implement the result of 1st). Alan Johnson said the same on This Week last night. It is only my small world (and AJ's) but I get the impression the only thing that would stop another Leave win would be apathy / frustration if people didn't see the point of voting, as the politicians can't be trusted to implement the result.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:48 am

Farage is back as just seen on Sky News. He cleverly positioned himself well away from UK IP and clearly close to the tory right. Whether you agree with him or he is by far the best advocate for leave. He knows the EU better than anyone. I can't help thinking that we would be on the verge of leaving with a good deal if he had been involved in the discussions.

If we don't leave properly the tories and labour need to be very concerned about Farage as he is talking about a new party being formed.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:52 am

He knows the EU better than anyone

True, his knowledge of the EU expenses claims are second to none.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:54 am

summitclaret wrote:Farage is back as just seen on Sky News. He cleverly positioned himself well away from UK IP and clearly close to the tory right. Whether you agree with him or he is by far the best advocate for leave. He knows the EU better than anyone. I can't help thinking that we would be on the verge of leaving with a good deal if he had been involved in the discussions.

If we don't leave properly the tories and labour need to be very concerned about Farage as he is talking about a new party being formed.

I wonder if he's trying to edge his way into the Tory party. I've speculated before that he might start a new party and try to do a Macron by leading a new party to government, but what if his plan is simply to move into power more directly by becoming a Tory?

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:56 am

Meant to add. A euro sceptic party would smash an euro elections this may if A 50 is extended.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:58 am

Well, it would have to be a new one then, as the UKIP/Robinson alliance has cost them big style.

Would be a weird one, as you'd expect pro-remain parties to do well as well.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:59 am

Don't agree. Remainers won't care.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:00 am

That makes no sense at all.

Why wouldn't they?

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:11 am

Ok to clarify. I don't think they will care enough to vote as most people normally don't in euro elections.

Also the more i think about rhe threat of a new euro sceptic party the more i think it is a brilliant move by Farage. Tye mere thought of it will cause panic in tory and labour and it may just get a deal sorted before 29 march.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:14 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:I wonder if he's trying to edge his way into the Tory party. I've speculated before that he might start a new party and try to do a Macron by leading a new party to government, but what if his plan is simply to move into power more directly by becoming a Tory?

You could be right. Either way it is good news for leavers and bad for remainers. Also it could give the establishment rhe kicking it deserves.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:14 am

summitclaret wrote:Don't agree. Remainers won't care.

Surely it's obvious that Farage would split the Tory party and Tory vote, in the way that Corbyn has split the left.
The most likely result: a strong Centre alliance of Remain "one nation conservatives" , liberals, greens and a large number of moderate remain Labour supporters.
Farage could actually be the catalyst for this major realignment, but due to the tribal nature of politics I doubt it will happen.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:15 am

summitclaret wrote:You could be right. Either way it is good news for leavers and bad for remainers.

lol. It's bad news for all of us if someone like Farage gets power.

I understand that you will get what you want in the short term and that's why you like the idea, but you're being pretty naive if you think that Farage will stand up for the liberal values that you enjoy.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:16 am

Cabinet ministers have told May to rule out a 'no deal' situation, so it's not just Labour against it now. All those hedge fund managers looking forward to selling the country short must be disappointed.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:17 am

Either way it is good news for leavers and bad for remainer

10% of people think he's ace.

90% of people think he's a self-serving narcissist all the way through to thinking he's a Russian Spy.

Its great news for people like me, cos plenty of leavers can't stand him

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:19 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:10% of people think he's ace.

90% of people think he's a self-serving narcissist all the way through to thinking he's a Russian Spy.

Its great news for people like me, cos plenty of leavers can't stand him

"Spy" is probably a bit much. "Asset" fits better.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:19 am

LC. You could be right in normal times. However its not and brexit trumps party politics.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:20 am

It does, but the personality counts as well.

Farage is leavers Blair mate. He might well be right on stuff*, but he's toxic.

*not to me like, but to others!

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:31 am

android wrote:Ringo - you were right about Bercow and I did make that point in your absence. Welcome back to you and IT!

On the 2nd ref, I get the demographics point but I have a genuine question. Do you actually know Leave voters who have changed their mind? I don't know any who have. I do know a good number of Remain voters who would vote Leave in a 2nd ref (mainly to implement the result of 1st). Alan Johnson said the same on This Week last night. It is only my small world (and AJ's) but I get the impression the only thing that would stop another Leave win would be apathy / frustration if people didn't see the point of voting, as the politicians can't be trusted to implement the result.

I don't know anybody who has changed their mind.

Question Time , last night, illustrated it perfectly. (Remember the BBC chooses its QT audience based on national figures not local figures, so accusations that Derby is a "Leave town anyway", don't hold water)

The biggest rousing cheer from the audience was when isabelle Oakshott said the only option was to "walk away" and leave the EU on WTO rules. It was met with, by far the biggest approving roar.

If the biggest single expression of democracy the nation has ever witnessed, is usurped by a cabal of duplicitous conniving MPS.

The suspicion held by the vast majority of people who don't live in the metropolitan London Borough of ivory towers, is that, the establishment and political class operate on behalf of London and the south east, will be confirmed.
Trust in MPs, parliament and most important of all, democracy itself, will shattered.

Geographically

Trans-generationally.

Permanently....

Guich · Post by **Guich** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:33 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Surely it's obvious that Farage would split the Tory party and Tory vote, in the way that Corbyn has split the left.
The most likely result: a strong Centre alliance of Remain "one nation conservatives" , liberals, greens and a large number of moderate remain Labour supporters.
Farage could actually be the catalyst for this major realignment, but due to the tribal nature of politics I doubt it will happen.

Didn't UKIP take more Labour voters than Conservative in the 2015 election? I think there could be a re-alignment along the lines you suggest as Farage isn't a party politician - he's a Brexiteer.

I suspect a centre party which disturbs the establishment, and is less self serving, would have a better chance than Macron had in France, as we are fundamentally a more conservative people. And some of Macron's unpopularity, apart from tax hikes, rides on his strong pro-EU stance.

Once EU squabbling is over and the dust has settled - I think a centre party could thrive.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:37 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Surely it's obvious that Farage would split the Tory party and Tory vote, in the way that Corbyn has split the left.
The most likely result: a strong Centre alliance of Remain "one nation conservatives" , liberals, greens and a large number of moderate remain Labour supporters.
Farage could actually be the catalyst for this major realignment, but due to the tribal nature of politics I doubt it will happen.

In normal times, and subject to the caveat below, such an alliance would be good and might give much needed long term stability. However, it won't happen if we can't control our own borders. That genie is out of the bottle and ain't going back in.

android · Post by **android** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:39 am

Thanks Ringo. My question was to everyone as well. Anyone know a leaver who has changed their mind? I have heard a few people on the radio say it but they sounded very much like they actually voted remain. Just can't see how remain would win if there is a similar turnout to the 1st.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:42 am

Whatever else happens remain would have to both win and beat 17.4m to be able to have a proper victory imo.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:42 am

I know a couple.

But I'm not daft enough to think that means remain would win because of it.

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:45 am

android wrote:Thanks Ringo. My question was to everyone as well. Anyone know a leaver who has changed their mind? I have heard a few people on the radio say it but they sounded very much like they actually voted remain. Just can't see how remain would win if there is a similar turnout to the 1st.

It’s like asking people “are you intellectually challenged?” I can’t see that many people openly admitting to changing their minds from Leave to Remain. I do know of some of my family members admitting it in private - they believed the lies of the Leave campaign and have regretted voting leave since the result and resulting political carnage.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:47 am

android wrote:Thanks Ringo. My question was to everyone as well. Anyone know a leaver who has changed their mind? I have heard a few people on the radio say it but they sounded very much like they actually voted remain. Just can't see how remain would win if there is a similar turnout to the 1st.

The unelected Andrew Adonis crowed last week. "Since the referendum around a million EU nationals have registered to vote."......

Burnley Ace · Post by **Burnley Ace** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:51 am

android wrote:Thanks Ringo. My question was to everyone as well. Anyone know a leaver who has changed their mind? I have heard a few people on the radio say it but they sounded very much like they actually voted remain. Just can't see how remain would win if there is a similar turnout to the 1st.

There’s a couple of people at work who admitted they voted leave to save the NHS and now realise it won’t and someone else who has said “they didn’t say it would be this hard”. Didn’t know if that counts as changed

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:53 am

summitclaret wrote:In normal times, and subject to the caveat below, such an alliance would be good and might give much needed long term stability. However, it won't happen if we can't control our own borders. That genie is out of the bottle and ain't going back in.

Not sure that the borders issue would be anywhere near the top of the list of priorities if a new centre party were setting out a new anti austerity, pro-enterprise agenda that focused on the NHS, education, cracking down on tax evasion, and narrowing the inequalities in society.

android · Post by **android** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:05 am

Ha ha - I'm getting a bit of stick, which is fine. I was just curious. There would be change in both directions in a 2nd ref but at least we know it is not just about demographics. Much would depend on how the question(s) are framed. Thanks for your answers, I'm returning to subs / spectators bench.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:08 am

Think we just have to get a deal.

Only questions I can see on a 2nd ref would be "leave with no deal" or "remain" and no one could honestly say that would help heal the country.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 am

android wrote:Thanks Ringo. My question was to everyone as well. Anyone know a leaver who has changed their mind? I have heard a few people on the radio say it but they sounded very much like they actually voted remain. Just can't see how remain would win if there is a similar turnout to the 1st.

National polling suggests that a fair number have (although it may also be due to the changing demographics that have been discussed at length above). You can ignore the absolute figures and look at the trends and there is a clear trend towards remain from leave.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:16 am

Think as well you have to take into account where we live as well.

Lancaster has swung from leave to remain according to the latest polls, Burnley hasn't for example

Chobulous · Post by **Chobulous** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:22 am

aggi wrote:National polling suggests that a fair number have (although it may also be due to the changing demographics that have been discussed at length above). You can ignore the absolute figures and look at the trends and there is a clear trend towards remain from leave.

Looking at the polling for the 3 main electoral events in the past 2 years one thing is clear. Polls are not reliable.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:24 am

Neither are lying chancers telling provable lies

But its not stopping millions thinking they are the 21st century equivalent of the Delphic Oracle.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:25 am

Chobulous wrote:Looking at the polling for the 3 main electoral events in the past 2 years one thing is clear. Polls are not reliable.

That's why I said to ignore the absolute figures and look at the trends. They may not be completely accurate in terms of absolutes (although a number were pretty accurate historically) but if you look at the trend it can show you which way the wind is blowing.