Russia Invades

[Vegas Claret]

speaking of Russian heli's being shot down......
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1509 ... GjqYuIM_IQ

[Vegas Claret]

...

[Lowbankclaret]

https://twitter.com/terischultz/status/ ... 2313405445

Russian troops now in full retreat to North, NW, NE and East of Kyi'v

You are correct, lots of stuff on Twitter about towns being freed, latest Ivankiv.

[Lowbankclaret]

they are very effective if you can keep them in the air. I've no idea how many the Russians have lost now but it must be a reasonable number, as you say though, the flying too high is unfathomable !!!

Flying low at the speed they can travel, I have a bet I could hit one with an AK 47.

There will be balance, ground small arms fire and surface to air missiles.

[Lowbankclaret]

they are very effective if you can keep them in the air. I've no idea how many the Russians have lost now but it must be a reasonable number, as you say though, the flying too high is unfathomable !!!

Latest Russian losses estimated.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... YJJfp3xUVQ

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 2635088899

Russian forces no longer in Kyi'v oblast

Rob Lee just can't see how the Russians, even if they reorganise, can seize the Donbass

[Lowbankclaret]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 2635088899

Russian forces no longer in Kyi'v oblast

Rob Lee just can't see how the Russians, even if they reorganise, can seize the Donbass

It certainly appears they have left the area around Kyiv. Todays losses appear to be normal for the Russian army, around 80 pieces of kit.
I am seeing claims of switchblade 300 being used and taking out targets now.

[NewClaret]

It certainly appears they have left the area around Kyiv. Todays losses appear to be normal for the Russian army, around 80 pieces of kit.
I am seeing claims of switchblade 300 being used and taking out targets now.

Any estimates as to how long they can continue losing 80 pieces of kit before they have to wave the white flag? It sounds a lot to lose to the uninitiated.

That switchblade 300 seems an amazing piece of kit. Hope the US have provided lots of those.

[Leisure]

What's Switchblade 300?

[NewClaret]

What's Switchblade 300?

Worth a Google.

Basically a flying missile you can carry in a backpack and launch from a tube, anywhere. Looks more like a mini plane than a missile.

[Lowbankclaret]

What's Switchblade 300?

It’s a drone with a 1kg payload of explosive.
You can fly it around for up to 4 miles using it’s night or day
Time camera and select a target which it then auto attacks.

It’s like playstation warfare. But for real.

[Lowbankclaret]

Any estimates as to how long they can continue losing 80 pieces of kit before they have to wave the white flag? It sounds a lot to lose to the uninitiated.

That switchblade 300 seems an amazing piece of kit. Hope the US have provided lots of those.

At the current rate in around 5 weeks they will have lost 50% of the kit and probably 50% of troops of what they sent in.
Based on reports that he committed 70% of Russias forces.
He is drawing troops from other areas but that might mean uprisings in those areas.

The biggest issue for Ukraine is , running out of anti tank weapons. They are firing so many.

We have sent 4200 N-law atw. Wiki says they have not made circa 7000. Now I suggest they will have made more, but how many more.
Even the US has asked the Javelin manufacturer to up production so they can back fill stocks.

Now switchblade drones can be used in the same way and are cheaper, but no idea on stocks of these.

[elwaclaret]

ROB LEE: Piles of dead Russian airborne left behind in piles at Hostomel Airport

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1509 ... UusmJCPILA

[elwaclaret]

ROB LEE: More on Russian dead being left were they fell.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1509 ... UusmJCPILA

[Vegas Claret]

same here but this is a graphic video of civilians left in the street in Bucha. It's important to post because it shows the reality but it's not a nice video to watch
https://twitter.com/ViktoriiaUAH/status ... 9d9ZSO214Q

[Elbarad]

Gods that's horrifying.

[Lowbankclaret]

Whilst I agree we need to keep a distance and supply arms. Those images make me what to say, sod it let’s go in.

Seeing those images makes you cry, well it did me.

[ralph8]

After seeing some of the evidence above relating to large Russian losses- combined with a denial/information censorship of these losses by the Kremlin - a admitting to a few hundred lost only, surely now is the time for the Russian families to question - Whats actually going on?
The relatives of Russia's serving soldiers who do not know if their sons/daughters are still alive (unfortunately probably left for dead by a road side) should now agree to a major protest day in April and in Moscow demanding to know from the Kremlin leaders where their son's were sent and if they are still alive.
I don't think it would go down to well with the Russian population watching TV/Videos of Police/Authorities wading into the soldiers families in Red Square- not like the peace protesters where it does seem to be fair game in Russia.

[Vegas Claret]

new Sushko, again no idea to it's validity
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... DtTnF2Pt9g

[Lancasterclaret]

same here but this is a graphic video of civilians left in the street in Bucha. It's important to post because it shows the reality but it's not a nice video to watch
https://twitter.com/ViktoriiaUAH/status ... 9d9ZSO214Q

Good luck to the Russians pretending that bloke lying by his bloke is a "legitimate military target"

[box_of_frogs]

It’s a drone with a 1kg payload of explosive.
You can fly it around for up to 4 miles using it’s night or day
Time camera and select a target which it then auto attacks.

It’s like playstation warfare. But for real.

Warhead on the 300 is a lot smaller than 1kg. It won’t take out anything armoured, it’s a low collateral person killer.

[Hipper]

After seeing some of the evidence above relating to large Russian losses- combined with a denial/information censorship of these losses by the Kremlin - a admitting to a few hundred lost only, surely now is the time for the Russian families to question - Whats actually going on?
The relatives of Russia's serving soldiers who do not know if their sons/daughters are still alive (unfortunately probably left for dead by a road side) should now agree to a major protest day in April and in Moscow demanding to know from the Kremlin leaders where their son's were sent and if they are still alive.
I don't think it would go down to well with the Russian population watching TV/Videos of Police/Authorities wading into the soldiers families in Red Square- not like the peace protesters where it does seem to be fair game in Russia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60946340

[Lowbankclaret]

Warhead on the 300 is a lot smaller than 1kg. It won’t take out anything armoured, it’s a low collateral person killer.

I understand it’s a very small drone, the company website shows it hitting something similar to Toyota flat back. It’s a small explosion but would probably mean it would not be useable.
The 600 as I am sure you know can hit an armoured vehicle but it’s bit heavy to be running around the countryside with it on your back. The US Gov didn’t release which variants it had sent.

[box_of_frogs]

All pretty much correct Lowbank.

[JarrowClaret]

A few Newspapers reporting that HVM **** down a MI28 yesterday or day before the helicopter had it’s tail cut off. I did wonder when I first saw the video but I doubted it as there looks to be only 1 dart and it seems to head for the engines so could be a heat seeker(stinger).

[Gaia]

The cannon fodder Russian conscript soldiers tend to come from the poorer areas of Russia. A hospital list of injured soldiers in Belarus the most common name was Mohammed and they were from the Dagestan area. Youngsters from Moscow and St Petersburg are more likely to dodge the draft as they know how to.

[elwaclaret]

Peter Caddick-Adams - Russian losses 17,700 soldiers, 625 tanks, 316 Artillery systems, 143 Aircraft and 131 Helicopters - Ukraine’s chief of staff has reported in a communique.

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... VpChjvb_LA

[JarrowClaret]

A few Newspapers reporting that HVM **** down a MI28 yesterday or day before the helicopter had it’s tail cut off. I did wonder when I first saw the video but I doubted it as there looks to be only 1 dart and it seems to head for the engines so could be a heat seeker(stinger).

Ha ha clearly my sausage fingers misspelt shot

[box_of_frogs]

A few Newspapers reporting that HVM **** down a MI28 yesterday or day before the helicopter had it’s tail cut off. I did wonder when I first saw the video but I doubted it as there looks to be only 1 dart and it seems to head for the engines so could be a heat seeker(stinger).

Yeah, I’m 50:50 on whether it was a Starstreak or not. No smoke trail and little to no explosive detonation. I’ve also seen a picture on twitter potentially showing the tail already detaching whilst another projectile is yet to hit. Both these make me lean towards HVM. That said, could easily be manpad(s) of whatever type after the rocket has burnt out.

[JarrowClaret]

Yeah, I’m 50:50 on whether it was a Starstreak or not. No smoke trail and little to no explosive detonation. I’ve also seen a picture on twitter potentially showing the tail already detaching whilst another projectile is yet to hit. Both these make me lean towards HVM. That said, could easily be manpad(s) of whatever type after the rocket has burnt out.

Once the second stage motor has released the darts there would be no smoke as it is being guided purely by the laser grid then and kept in the air with momentum. I haven’t seen any pictures of the tail already being detached but as the darts tend to bounce around the laser grid that would definitely make me lean towards HVM as well.

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA - Russia could make $321 Billion from oil and gas sales in 2022 Bloomberg estimate

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... VpChjvb_LA

But revenues are now falling even without embargo’s being enforced

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... VpChjvb_LA

[elwaclaret]

THE OBSERVER - British Vols tell the newspaper why they are fighting for Ukraine

https://twitter.com/briw74/status/15102 ... VpChjvb_LA

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: Moscow’s harsh punishments for speaking out about Ukraine may be extreme, but it is not stopping those with something to say

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... floQUHlADQ

[box_of_frogs]

Once the second stage motor has released the darts there would be no smoke as it is being guided purely by the laser grid then and kept in the air with momentum. I haven’t seen any pictures of the tail already being detached but as the darts tend to bounce around the laser grid that would definitely make me lean towards HVM as well.

Yeah - agreed. The video also showed a mixed Havoc / Hokum combo I think. The lead was a bit further away but looked like a Hokum to me.

[elwaclaret]

Ukraine Tractor division at it again

https://twitter.com/briw74/status/15102 ... -9MAxXEZ0A

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent - Italy offers to oversee Ukraine neutrality

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... _9r0rXXUMw

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA - Russian students sent out on patrol as Russia struggles to police the population

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... _9r0rXXUMw

[elwaclaret]

LAWRENCE FREEDMAN RETWEET - Estimated positions 2nd April

https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/statu ... _9r0rXXUMw

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA - Liberated Borodianka

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... _9r0rXXUMw

[Lowbankclaret]

Oncoming off the city match I was slightly fed up, then you read this Twitter thread and you realise it does matter really.

https://twitter.com/dkaleniuk/status/15 ... sl_LW4Qu8w

[bfcjg]

Oncoming off the city match I was slightly fed up, then you read this Twitter thread and you realise it does matter really.

https://twitter.com/dkaleniuk/status/15 ... sl_LW4Qu8w

My God that is so sad,so horrendous. The poor girl. Putin is an evil sadist who hopefully will be brought to justice in this life or the next. As you say compared to what's happening in Ukraine we have absolutely nothing to be bothered about.

[elwaclaret]

Rob Lee: One that may be already on here that I’ve just seen - destroyed Russian convoy.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1510 ... 8wHWwLhqEg

[Hipper]

When you see a turret off the tank does it mean a magazine explosion - as happened on WW2 warships?

[elwaclaret]

Osinttechnical : Chernihiv - destroyed Russian radar transporter 9C36

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... PoxmDgFGjw

[elwaclaret]

OSINTtechnical - Former Russian dugout camp outside Kyiv

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... PoxmDgFGjw

[elwaclaret]

ELINT NEWS RETWEET - ANOTHER destroyed Russian column, this time in Irpin now being confirmed

https://twitter.com/ozkaterji/status/15 ... VxyQ1ImjXw

[Lowbankclaret]

So let’s talk tanks. I posted a % thread a few days ago.
I think it said the Russians committed 1700 tanks.
Photographic identification has 390 tanks Russia has lost.

343EF533-CC19-4A9B-AC47-63309593F90C.png (591.22 KiB) Viewed 2299 times

Ukraine's estimated Russian tank losses is 630.

C2D25BCA-7266-4BCE-89CD-91BCA5B21FDC.png (573.92 KiB) Viewed 2299 times

So we are on day 34, on estimates they are losing circa 18 tanks a day. On actual it’s 11 a day.

In circa 20 days time Russia is looking at losses of around 50% of its tanks. All the things I have read says all it’s tanks in storage have been stripped of rare metals engines etc. so no more to send to help.

This is not going well for Putin at all IMO. Surely once your equipment gets eroded beyond 50% your on the back foot from then on in.

[Lowbankclaret]

When you see a turret off the tank does it mean a magazine explosion - as happened on WW2 warships?

Could be H-law or Javelin missile, plus as you say munitions exploding.

[Lowbankclaret]

Making my point in pictures.

https://twitter.com/ozkaterji/status/15 ... OfZjaAMOmA

[elwaclaret]

Rob Lee - more captured Russian kit.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1510 ... LLwRrz1_Lg