Russia Invades

[elwaclaret]

There's absolutely no way Ukraine will concede land, they've taken the heaviest punch from Russia and shook it off already.

It remains to be seen but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Ukraine reclaimed Crimea before this is over, never mind the Donbas.

[elwaclaret]

Phillips-OBrian - U.S. Government making weapons specifically for Ukraine, and they seem to believe Ukraine are in pretty good shape.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... gpCZ60tMEQ

[Lancasterclaret]

As Russia continues to smash UKR cities to pieces under an almost endless bombardment of heavy ordinance, laying waste to building landscape and infastructure .Securing vast swathes of territorial and military dominance of their wanted eastern regions . Yet the west think UKR are winning . It’s a matter of time until Vlad secures his regions either by more force or UKR ceding Donbas .Vlad may have made a horse’s arse of the early stages but it was always gonna happen . A truly awful spectacle .

Firstly you are essentially right that he's wrecking Ukrainian towns and cities - in the Donbass region, the region he wants to capture

But

- This was supposed to be a two day military operation, in which the triumphant forces of imperial Russia occupied Ukraine and presented the West with a fait accompli

Now?

Its Day 60, he's desperately trying to hang on to what he has outside the Donbass, while trying to pretend his war aims where limited to occupying it (which he is also wrecking by blowing it up)

The reputation and international influence he has spent thirty years building up have been thrown away, the power of his armed forces have proved to be a lot less significant than everyone thought, and the damage his country is taking is going to take, well, more than his lifetime to repair

I don't see Ukraine being able to take back the Crimea for example, but there is real danger to Russia of them completely exhausting themselves against much more motivated and better equipped Ukrainian forces (and that imbalance will only get worse as time goes on)

I think Russia are relying on Western pressure (ie Germany or a Le Pen France) to force Ukraine to cede territory

I think that is up there with his strategic mistakes he's made so far, and won't end well

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA - Russia is bombarding Azovstal the factory, despite Putin giving assurances that they wouldn’t

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... gpCZ60tMEQ

How do people expect a negotiated settlement to ever be possible, when Putin tells lie after lie without compunction?

[Elbarad]

21 minutes ago
Ukraine has more tanks available in country than Russia, thanks to European deliveries of Soviet-era T-72 tanks: senior defense official. U.S. has NO tanks to give Ukraine because Ukraine military is using Soviet-era equipment

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/21-april- ... untry-than

[Lowbankclaret]

As Russia continues to smash UKR cities to pieces under an almost endless bombardment of heavy ordinance, laying waste to building landscape and infastructure .Securing vast swathes of territorial and military dominance of their wanted eastern regions . Yet the west think UKR are winning . It’s a matter of time until Vlad secures his regions either by more force or UKR ceding Donbas .Vlad may have made a horse’s arse of the early stages but it was always gonna happen . A truly awful spectacle .

I am not sure your assessment is 100% valid.
Yes Putins troops are laying waste to cities and villages.
Killing lots of civilians, and raping women and children.

But he is losing the information war, the west is disgusted at what his troops are doing in his name.
He has lost over 30% of his army and his equipment.
Ukraine now has more equipment than they started with, plus lots of new western stuff.

Added to that Russias over estimation of its abilities means it going to lose lots more Troops and equipment over the next two weeks in an attempt to WIN.

Once he is degraded by 50%+, Ukraine will start to take territory back.
IMHO of course.

[AlargeClaret]

I am not sure your assessment is 100% valid.
Yes Putins troops are laying waste to cities and villages.
Killing lots of civilians, and raping women and children.

But he is losing the information war, the west is disgusted at what his troops are doing in his name.
He has lost over 30% of his army and his equipment.
Ukraine now has more equipment than they started with, plus lots of new western stuff.

Added to that Russias over estimation of its abilities means it going to lose lots more Troops and equipment over the next two weeks in an attempt to WIN.

Once he is degraded by 50%+, Ukraine will start to take territory back.
IMHO of course.

Reasonable points . But I find it hard to believe Putin has lost 30% of his army and equipment . Though he’s certainly sustained considerable losses . ( we can never really know) However his losses are more easily replaced where UKR is almost entirely reliant now on western donated weapons etc

It seems almost impossible to imagine Putin not eventually securing his treasured Donbas region

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1517421897914503168

Russian war aims still appear to be on the optimistic side

I do hope the West are preparing to back Ukraine for the long term here, as I suspect Russia will just cripple itself rather than admit it has failed

[Lancasterclaret]

Reasonable points . But I find it hard to believe Putin has lost 30% of his army and equipment . Though he’s certainly sustained considerable losses . ( we can never really know) However his losses are more easily replaced where UKR is almost entirely reliant now on western donated weapons etc

It seems almost impossible to imagine Putin not eventually securing his treasured Donbas region

How are his losses more easily replaced?

There isn't a reserve to speak of that has better equipment than went in two months ago. They will run out of equipment faster than Ukraine will, certainly on current losses

I sort of agree with your last line, but that would not be worth his crippling Russia for a decade for, and certainly would not be worth the losses his army, his prestige and his diplomatic clout have suffered

Regarding the Russian losses, if you don't believe the estimates from Ukrainian sources (fair enough) then the open source counting with photo evidence are a good guide. If you have got an alternative source that shows Russia losing a lot less than that shows, then please share it

[AlargeClaret]

How are his losses more easily replaced?

There isn't a reserve to speak of that has better equipment than went in two months ago. They will run out of equipment faster than Ukraine will, certainly on current losses

I sort of agree with your last line, but that would not be worth his crippling Russia for a decade for, and certainly would not be worth the losses his army, his prestige and his diplomatic clout have suffered

Regarding the Russian losses, if you don't believe the estimates from Ukrainian sources (fair enough) then the open source counting with photo evidence are a good guide. If you have got an alternative source that shows Russia losing a lot less than that shows, then please share it

It’s not that I “ don’t believe “ about the losses, let’s face it Putin has been given a very bloody nose thus far . But it’s tricky to ever know what Russia really has in the way of new hardware . How many armoured vehicles are rolling out the factories every day ? Or is it an outdated semi rust bucket of armour they have ? . Simply put I can’t see Putin losing the areas he now has and by troop numbers alone , any “ big push “ could see UKR having no choice but to sue for peace .

[Lancasterclaret]

It’s not that I “ don’t believe “ about the losses, let’s face it Putin has been given a very bloody nose thus far . But it’s tricky to ever know what Russia really has in the way of new hardware . How many armoured vehicles are rolling out the factories every day ? Or is it an outdated semi rust bucket of armour they have ? . Simply put I can’t see Putin losing the areas he now has and by troop numbers alone , any “ big push “ could see UKR having no choice but to sue for peace .

Not enough to replace the losses - I'm going off fag packet economics and armament production here, but you are looking at a decade before Russia reaches the capability it had two months ago. That is getting worse every day, and if he doesn't have the equipment, then his army isn't going to be able to hold against Ukrainian armoured counter attacks

The biggest problem they have is that they are absolutely flying through their stocks of "smart weapons". Once they run out of them, they just can't be replaced as they almost certainly need hardware that they can no longer get

The danger remains that the Russians want more than they can get, and they persist in believing that is possible, and they cripple themselves trying to do it, face complete collapse and escalate

[Lowbankclaret]

It’s not that I “ don’t believe “ about the losses, let’s face it Putin has been given a very bloody nose thus far . But it’s tricky to ever know what Russia really has in the way of new hardware . How many armoured vehicles are rolling out the factories every day ? Or is it an outdated semi rust bucket of armour they have ? . Simply put I can’t see Putin losing the areas he now has and by troop numbers alone , any “ big push “ could see UKR having no choice but to sue for peace .

Russias tank factory has a capacity of 200 tanks per year from what I have read, but Russia didn’t procure many of its latest version as it was way over priced compared the older model tanks.
Also due to sanctions it has shut down production due to a lack parts it buys from the west. So no new tanks are being made currently.
One tank commander was sent back to Russia to start bringing out its reserves from storage. Most had had all the rare metals removed and a large amount without large parts like engines. The report said 1% of the reserve were serviceable. He shot himself, so he must have thought fait was his best outcome.
Analysts give different amounts of tanks he had at the start of the war, but the maximum I have seen was 2,100, with most stating numbers around 1,800, photo verified amount of tank losses is around 540, with claimed over 800.

Ukraine has apparently now got double the amounts of tanks it started with due to capturing so many.

On soldiers, Ukraine are saying they have killed over 20,000, most analysts say injured amount are normally 3 times dead. That s a total around 70 to 80,000. He sent in around 180 to 200,000 with very little in reserve. Hence they are trying to recruit in Africa.

It’s not going well at all for Russia.

As Lancaster said, Ukraines biggest issue is running out of smart weapons.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://static.rusi.org/special-report- ... -z-web.pdf

PDF on the current short, medium and long term risks, and that it looks like Russia is preparing for a long war (with a fair bit of Russian destabilisation attempts in Moldova)

[JarrowClaret]

Russias tank factory has a capacity of 200 tanks per year from what I have read, but Russia didn’t procure many of its latest version as it was way over priced compared the older model tanks.
Also due to sanctions it has shut down production due to a lack parts it buys from the west. So no new tanks are being made currently.
One tank commander was sent back to Russia to start bringing out its reserves from storage. Most had had all the rare metals removed and a large amount without large parts like engines. The report said 1% of the reserve were serviceable. He shot himself, so he must have thought fait was his best outcome.
Analysts give different amounts of tanks he had at the start of the war, but the maximum I have seen was 2,100, with most stating numbers around 1,800, photo verified amount of tank losses is around 540, with claimed over 800.

Ukraine has apparently now got double the amounts of tanks it started with due to capturing so many.

On soldiers, Ukraine are saying they have killed over 20,000, most analysts say injured amount are normally 3 times dead. That s a total around 70 to 80,000. He sent in around 180 to 200,000 with very little in reserve. Hence they are trying to recruit in Africa.

It’s not going well at all for Russia.

As Lancaster said, Ukraines biggest issue is running out of smart weapons.

Just to add last night it was reported by a pro Kremlin publication that they had 13,000 men confirmed dead and another 7000 missing it was a post that was quickly removed so Ukrainian figured of around 20,000 might be reasonably accurate after all.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/statu ... 3Y9aeDp3eg

[Vegas Claret]

and let's not forget the Ukranian's are getting a **** load of training from the West. The up to the second information they are getting is vital too.

[Lowbankclaret]

Just to add last night it was reported by a pro Kremlin publication that they had 13,000 men confirmed dead and another 7000 missing it was a post that was quickly removed so Ukrainian figured of around 20,000 might be reasonably accurate after all.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/statu ... 3Y9aeDp3eg

Zelensky said the other day that they had 7,000 dead Russian soldiers in the morgues that the Russians will not collect.

So I agree the numbers must be about the ball park we are talking about.

This all adds up to fact that Russia’s army is being severely degraded. That’s why they have had to change to just taking the Donbas, I just don’t think it’s going to be easy for the Russians .

I also don’t think Zelensky is going to do a deal whilst he is getting all the kit the west is sending.

From the stuff I am reading on Twitter from people who are actually fighting, it appears most Russian troops don’t have night vision and the Ukrainians are doing night sorties, taking out equipment and soldiers in the night and then backing away.

https://twitter.com/canadianukrain1/sta ... PQ4H-PYBgQ

[Lowbankclaret]

This is apparently the new plan for Russia, let’s see how it pans out.

B39FDBBC-635F-4ECD-A208-E3801B2E0CE2.png (936.18 KiB) Viewed 3286 times

[Lancasterclaret]

This is apparently the new plan for Russia, let’s see how it pans out.

B39FDBBC-635F-4ECD-A208-E3801B2E0CE2.png

It makes no sense at all that

They are fighting to hang on to Kherson, and have zero amphib threat to Odessa or Mykolaiv because of what happened to the Moskva

But if it is the plan, then its going to be a long war, and you are going to see Russia absolutely ramp up the rhetoric

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1 ... 9789355009

Update on US aid to Ukraine - that is a lot of artillery, and it outranges the Russian ones

[Lancasterclaret]

More on the US 155mm howitzers, what they can do, and what they come with

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status ... 7215764481

[bfcjg]

Shouldn't wish ill health on people but there are exceptions.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp

[Lowbankclaret]

This is where the main battle is happening now. In the short term I can see Ukrain losing this ground, but it must not let it’s troops get encircled.

C1EF205C-F89F-4855-8840-E475128E1A40.jpeg (299.4 KiB) Viewed 3229 times

[Lowbankclaret]

It makes no sense at all that

They are fighting to hang on to Kherson, and have zero amphib threat to Odessa or Mykolaiv because of what happened to the Moskva

But if it is the plan, then its going to be a long war, and you are going to see Russia absolutely ramp up the rhetoric

Link to where the map came from, think she is a Ukrainian MP.

https://twitter.com/innasovsun/status/1 ... leTPXo3Rog

[Lancasterclaret]

Link to where the map came from, think she is a Ukrainian MP.

https://twitter.com/innasovsun/status/1 ... leTPXo3Rog

Oh, i'm sure its what they want to do mate, its just that it looks impossible with the situation as it stands

[Lowbankclaret]

Oh, i'm sure its what they want to do mate, its just that it looks impossible with the situation as it stands

My guess is Russia thinks that doable, but Ukraine are just about to more kit as you posted that outranges Russias kit. In two weeks time we will see where this is going to go I think. If Russian degradation continues, I can see Ukraine not agreeing to a cease fire. They will want to push Russia off its land.

[Lowbankclaret]

So we are going to give challenger 2 tanks to Poland so they can send T72 tank to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... leTPXo3Rog

[elwaclaret]

Michael Kofman - (Director of Russian Studies CNA) - Russia has been defeated in Vosnesenk and Mykolaiv, and may now be heading for defeat in Donbas within weeks.

https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/statu ... SRl8SX1D7A

[IanMcL]

NEXTA - Russia is bombarding Azovstal the factory, despite Putin giving assurances that they wouldn’t

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... gpCZ60tMEQ

How do people expect a negotiated settlement to ever be possible, when Putin tells lie after lie without compunction?

I am not sure Outin has any control over what happens on the ground. He can set the task and say much, however, the Generals and in particular, the men on the ground, do not appear to be that disciplined.

[elwaclaret]

I am not sure Outin has any control over what happens on the ground. He can set the task and say much, however, the Generals and in particular, the men on the ground, do not appear to be that disciplined.

Maybe not, but he does carry responsibility

[Hipper]

So we are going to give challenger 2 tanks to Poland so they can send T72 tank to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... leTPXo3Rog

I was just reading that last year we had 227 Challenger 2s. The plan is to upgrade 148 of these to Challenger 3s, presumably leaving the rest surplus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-s ... e-57025266

Are we giving or selling, along with some training presumably.

The Poles already have the Leopard 2.

https://www.military-today.com/tanks/pt_16.htm

[Vegas Claret]

send them 50 A10's and it'll be over by Tuesday

[elwaclaret]

Peter Caddock-Adams: Why May 9th is so important a date for Russia.

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... SRl8SX1D7A

[JarrowClaret]

I was just reading that last year we had 227 Challenger 2s. The plan is to upgrade 148 of these to Challenger 3s, presumably leaving the rest surplus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-s ... e-57025266

Are we giving or selling, along with some training presumably.

The Poles already have the Leopard 2.

https://www.military-today.com/tanks/pt_16.htm

They are going with British crews, I suspect it will be partly what was already planned I’m sure they do an exercise over there. I guess they will stay longer than would normally happen they would stay until Poland get replacements.

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent - Mass systematic murder of civilians now revealed in Bucha.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... SRl8SX1D7A

[bfcjg]

Kyiv Independent - Mass systematic murder of civilians now revealed in Bucha.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... SRl8SX1D7A

My God these people are really a sub human species they won't stop in Ukraine. The army that helped defeat nazi fascists doing this, NATO cannot stand by, these animals must be exterminated if not who's next Poland,Finland ? Enough is enough. Surely honourable Russian soldiers,fathers,sons brothers cannot stand by and watch this brutal attack.on mainly females and innocents.

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent: Netherlands to supply Ukraine with self-propelled howitzers

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... SRl8SX1D7A

[IanMcL]

Maybe not, but he does carry responsibility

For sure. Just that he cannot promise anything, as they don't react on the ground.

Bumping him off could be very good.

[Lancasterclaret]

Quite surprised that we haven't announced a defence review because of what is happening in the Ukraine to be honest

Pretty clear we need to recalculate what the dangers are (again sadly) and certainly increase defence spending

[bfcjg]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exclusive-fra ... 23493.html
With friends like these who needs enemies?

[elwaclaret]

ROB LEE: Russia now supplying kit for their army via crowd funding.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1517 ... Y6XlInBJlA

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/statu ... MogHQ&s=19

This is ...erm....an interesting suggestion by some Germans.

[Vegas Claret]

...

[elwaclaret]

...

Noticeable how beaming India was about Johnson’s visit too… it looks like the ‘fence sitters’ are reading the tea-leaves (tbf Turkey have quietly supplied kit to Ukraine, understandably unwilling to leave themselves open to Russian reprisals until now) .

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent - President Zelenskiy describes the Russian military as ‘stinky bastards’ in an outburst after a Odessa air-strikes kill a three month old baby.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... aO4h5oLh7Q

[Lowbankclaret]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 02_NHGo6kg

This I agree with.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 8592643072

Reported Ukrainian attack on a Russian command post in the Kherson sector - 2 generals killed, one wounded

[elwaclaret]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 02_NHGo6kg

This I agree with.

Seems reasonable - several ‘Russia Studies’ experts are suggesting that Russian forces will be spent, and defeated within weeks. The fact that Russia has been reduced to crowd funding equipment also tells us how close to the edge their military now is.

[elwaclaret]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 8592643072

Reported Ukrainian attack on a Russian command post in the Kherson sector - 2 generals killed, one wounded

It does seem Russia has employed every tactic for ‘how to NOT win a war’. I’d expect it of a banana republic but not ‘a world power’.

[Taffy on the wing]

The Germans have been very disappointing throughout this war!
I had thought better of them.

[Murger]

The Germans have been very disappointing throughout this war!
I had thought better of them.

2 world wars should tell you different