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IanMcL
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by IanMcL » Sat Apr 30, 2022 1:57 pm
That is what funds Russian war!
It is a huge shame that they cannot/will not make alternative arrangements, very swiftly.
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elwaclaret
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by elwaclaret » Sat Apr 30, 2022 2:18 pm
Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:59 am
Before this war I didn’t really look at Twitter, didn’t understand how it works, I had to ask on here how to copy a link. Now all this stuff from the war appears on my Twitter, probably an algorithm because I followed a few on the front line.
But I agree some unbelievable videos.
I joined Twitter about six months ago, primarily to see what is going on with the latest history findings (its a goldmine for the latest academic research) but I’ve gone from a daily check to about a dozen a day since the war started.
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TsarBomba
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by TsarBomba » Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:16 pm
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Colburn_Claret
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by Colburn_Claret » Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:46 pm
This mut could end up killing more Russians than the Ukrainians.
Would any sane state, have military strategy decided by a politician.
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Lancasterclaret
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by Lancasterclaret » Sun May 01, 2022 3:02 pm
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Lowbankclaret
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by Lowbankclaret » Sun May 01, 2022 3:16 pm
Don’t you find it strange we can see what’s going to happen by reading reports and seeing what’s going but then Russians appear unable to either see or avoid it happening.
That’s the second Command and control center Ukraine has hit successfully recently.
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JarrowClaret
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by JarrowClaret » Sun May 01, 2022 9:32 pm
Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Sun May 01, 2022 3:16 pm
Don’t you find it strange we can see what’s going to happen by reading reports and seeing what’s going but then Russians appear unable to either see or avoid it happening.
That’s the second Command and control center Ukraine has hit successfully recently.
I’m not sure of the size of Russian HQs but I imagine they would be similar to UK ones if not bigger they are likely to be huge with a massive electronic and noise signature if measures aren’t taken to disrupt elint etc then this is a very easy place to hit.
As an example during the invasion of Iraq 1 UK div HQ moved to about 5 miles off the Iraq border a few days before the invasion started. From the start of the move and until the war started we remained in total radio silence and I’m sure the EW guys recorded and played our electronic noise from the previous place. 1 of the first missiles the Iraqis fired landed near our previous position so the ruse worked! I imagine the Russians for whatever reason are not doing similar.
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Lancasterclaret
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by Lancasterclaret » Sun May 01, 2022 9:50 pm
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Lancasterclaret
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by Lancasterclaret » Sun May 01, 2022 9:53 pm
JarrowClaret wrote: ↑Sun May 01, 2022 9:32 pm
I’m not sure of the size of Russian HQs but I imagine they would be similar to UK ones if not bigger they are likely to be huge with a massive electronic and noise signature if measures aren’t taken to disrupt elint etc then this is a very easy place to hit.
As an example during the invasion of Iraq 1 UK div HQ moved to about 5 miles off the Iraq border a few days before the invasion started. From the start of the move and until the war started we remained in total radio silence and I’m sure the EW guys recorded and played our electronic noise from the previous place. 1 of the first missiles the Iraqis fired landed near our previous position so the ruse worked! I imagine the Russians for whatever reason are not doing similar.
I find it surprising that the Russians are still operating as if the various SIGNIT/HUMNIT intelligence sources don't exist
Absolutely no way that Ukraine isn't getting access to the info that NATO has, and surely that has sunk in with the Russians by now?
If the Gerasimov stuff is true, and he has been wounded, then that doesn't bode well for the Russian C & C being repeatedly hit, with the inherent disruption to Russian attacks that will cause
Anyone else still under the illusion that this is going to end anytime soon?
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JarrowClaret
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by JarrowClaret » Sun May 01, 2022 10:03 pm
Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Sun May 01, 2022 9:53 pm
I find it surprising that the Russians are still operating as if the various SIGNIT/HUMNIT intelligence sources don't exist
Absolutely no way that Ukraine isn't getting access to the info that NATO has, and surely that has sunk in with the Russians by now?
If the Gerasimov stuff is true, and he has been wounded, then that doesn't bode well for the Russian C & C being repeatedly hit, with the inherent disruption to Russian attacks that will cause
Anyone else still under the illusion that this is going to end anytime soon?
You are assuming they are able to act any other way!!
I am shocked that such a high level HQ/ meeting was held within range of the Ukrainians and that news of it happening was out days before it actually happened. Various accounts on Twitter were discussing him taking over the war suggesting it was a sort it or don’t come back moment maybe he took it too literal!
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Lancasterclaret
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by Lancasterclaret » Sun May 01, 2022 10:18 pm
JarrowClaret wrote: ↑Sun May 01, 2022 10:03 pm
You are assuming they are able to act any other way!!
I am shocked that such a high level HQ/ meeting was held within range of the Ukrainians and that news of it happening was out days before it actually happened. Various accounts on Twitter were discussing him taking over the war suggesting it was a sort it or don’t come back moment maybe he took it too literal!
I guess I was wondering why they are not taking more care over security, especially of their senior staff, ammo dumps and the like
If (and its hard to draw any other conclusion at the moment) everything is being run from Moscow and Putin is interfering, then they have completely forgotten what they learnt in WWII (which took them millions of casualties until they learnt)
I'm just surprised that they are still making the same basic mistakes I guess
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JarrowClaret
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by JarrowClaret » Sun May 01, 2022 10:31 pm
Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Sun May 01, 2022 10:18 pm
I guess I was wondering why they are not taking more care over security, especially of their senior staff, ammo dumps and the like
If (and its hard to draw any other conclusion at the moment) everything is being run from Moscow and Putin is interfering, then they have completely forgotten what they learnt in WWII (which took them millions of casualties until they learnt)
I'm just surprised that they are still making the same basic mistakes I guess
Maybe they have been watching Blackadder goes forth reruns and think it was a serious documentary and took what General Melchit said as sound advice. Yeh it is madness it s almost as if they need to purge a certain amount of men and equipment as they can’t use the better ones until they are all gone.
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Colburn_Claret
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by Colburn_Claret » Sun May 01, 2022 11:10 pm
JarrowClaret wrote: ↑Sun May 01, 2022 10:03 pm
You are assuming they are able to act any other way!!
I am shocked that such a high level HQ/ meeting was held within range of the Ukrainians and that news of it happening was out days before it actually happened. Various accounts on Twitter were discussing him taking over the war suggesting it was a sort it or don’t come back moment maybe he took it too literal!
He should put a hanky on his head, and put 2 pencils up his nose.
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Vegas Claret
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by Vegas Claret » Mon May 02, 2022 1:59 am
Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Sun May 01, 2022 9:53 pm
I find it surprising that the Russians are still operating as if the various SIGNIT/HUMNIT intelligence sources don't exist
Absolutely no way that Ukraine isn't getting access to the info that NATO has, and surely that has sunk in with the Russians by now?
If the Gerasimov stuff is true, and he has been wounded, then that doesn't bode well for the Russian C & C being repeatedly hit, with the inherent disruption to Russian attacks that will cause
Anyone else still under the illusion that this is going to end anytime soon?
last week I was a British mate who is over here in the US on a NATO contract (has been for years) - I wont say what he does but let's just say they know when Putin goes for a ****. Also, there is already a red line that so far Russia has not crossed.
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Lowbankclaret
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by Lowbankclaret » Mon May 02, 2022 10:12 am
JarrowClaret wrote: ↑Sun May 01, 2022 9:32 pm
I’m not sure of the size of Russian HQs but I imagine they would be similar to UK ones if not bigger they are likely to be huge with a massive electronic and noise signature if measures aren’t taken to disrupt elint etc then this is a very easy place to hit.
As an example during the invasion of Iraq 1 UK div HQ moved to about 5 miles off the Iraq border a few days before the invasion started. From the start of the move and until the war started we remained in total radio silence and I’m sure the EW guys recorded and played our electronic noise from the previous place. 1 of the first missiles the Iraqis fired landed near our previous position so the ruse worked! I imagine the Russians for whatever reason are not doing similar.
Thankyou for a real world example . I just wo dear if the Russians are so arrogant , they just don’t think the Ukrainians can get to them
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Lancasterclaret
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by Lancasterclaret » Mon May 02, 2022 10:40 am
Worth mentioning as well that the US/NATO have spent twenty years tracking terrorists and jihadists who have extremely good procedures for avoiding being electronically tracked
In the meantime, the Russians have essentially been able to do what they want without any real interference from a superior enemy in Syria and other places, and won't have had to worry about how blase their communications procedures are
I bet every Russian position shines like a solar flare on every NATO tracking device, and the bigger the position, the bigger the electronic output
Basically, a lot more senior commanders are going to die (though it looks like the initial report about Gerasimov was incorrect, but the site he was at was attacked, and lots of Russians got taken out)
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Burnley1989
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by Burnley1989 » Mon May 02, 2022 11:28 am
Read this earlier on LinkedIn from an ex SAS soldier
The only way that Putin can win is if Zelensky makes a settlement.
Russia's campaign in Ukraine has exposed the ineptness of the Russian armed forces. All their operations thus far have failed, their technology either doesn't work or is thirty years behind the systems owned by the western powers. Every day that Ukraine resists is a nail in Russia's coffin. Russia cannot maintain a long war, it is losing too much equipment and men and it doesn't have the ability to replace them.
The Rouble is being artificially held up, the Russian stock market has been banned from selling, foreign business assets are being stolen. These short term funding attempts will run out in a matter of months and Russian will struggle to raise capital to rebuild, they will have bitten the hand that feeds them. No one will invest in them twice.
The money Russia earns from fossil fuels will diminish as the west gradually reduces their dependence on Russian oil. That will not return. In the long term Russia is already screwed. Financially Russia is small fry compared to NATO. The economies of the united democracies can outbuy him a hundred times. They have more money, more stuff and more people. On top of that Russia is bleeding experts, the young professionals are running for the door.
In the short term Putin needs a military victory but it's hard to see how that can be achieved now that western arms and training are arriving in the war zone. The mud (as I previously mentioned) is slowing the Russian advance. Moving in the Spring was simply foolish.
Russian troops are dissatisfied and demoralised. Generals are either in prison or in the ground, every time a Russian HQ sets up it gets hit (No one is asking why?). The ships in the Black Sea have withdrawn out of range of Odessa for fear of Neptune Missiles.
If Zelensky holds his nerve and stays in the fight for another ten weeks Russia will be unable to hold Ukraine or the Black Sea. They will threaten terrible consequences, they will stamp their feet, they will look to save face but it will be too late.
The best hope for Putin is to take his troops home and salvage what he can, but he won't. He will send his armies into a futile battle and drag his country back a hundred years. His brutal actions might be the catalyst that finally finishes the Russian Empire once and for all.
Slava Ukraine! Slava Zelensky!
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Lowbankclaret
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by Lowbankclaret » Mon May 02, 2022 12:55 pm
I think myself and several posters have speculated the same outcome as above. We did say he was going to have to pull away from the north as he was running out of kit and men to fight and that happened.
He then turned his attention to taking the Donbas and all his attempts to move forward appear to have been stopped and pushed back. The fighting appears to heavy and horrible with both sides suffering heavy losses. Ukraine is being supplied with guided munitions so they are creating heavy losses on Russian equipment. As well as the drone attacks I shared. Plus they now have switchblade drones.
Added to that they are now getting 155mm artillery that outranges the Russians.
I don’t see any outcome in a none nuclear war other than Ukraine ultimately pushing Russian troops out of Ukraine altogether.
With countries intent on stopping buying hydrocarbons from Russia, it’s not going to have the funds to rearm any time soon.
If Russia starts throwing Nukes around, unfortunately I don’t see much of mankind left in the aftermath.
The madness I have seen on Russian TV, is deluded people who don’t understand a radioactive future. Last one was saying just one missile would cause a radioactive tidal wave that would obliterate the UK. They are coming across as a crazy race of people.
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JimmyRobbo
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by JimmyRobbo » Mon May 02, 2022 12:56 pm
I lurk on this thread, constantly.
Many thanks to the mods and the knowledgeable ones for posting updates. You know who you are. There are 4 or 5 of you that post links and make comments which make me believe you have genuine understanding.
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JarrowClaret
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by JarrowClaret » Mon May 02, 2022 1:17 pm
Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 10:40 am
Worth mentioning as well that the US/NATO have spent twenty years tracking terrorists and jihadists who have extremely good procedures for avoiding being electronically tracked
In the meantime, the Russians have essentially been able to do what they want without any real interference from a superior enemy in Syria and other places, and won't have had to worry about how blase their communications procedures are
I bet every Russian position shines like a solar flare on every NATO tracking device, and the bigger the position, the bigger the electronic output
Basically, a lot more senior commanders are going to die (though it looks like the initial report about Gerasimov was incorrect, but the site he was at was attacked, and lots of Russians got taken out)
Not just that Lancaster the Humint in the ground will be unreal the Ukrainians will have dickers everywhere let’s face it everyone is now a humint source.
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elwaclaret
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by elwaclaret » Mon May 02, 2022 1:59 pm
Phillips OBrian - Ukraine making significant progress striking out of Kharkiv, demonstrating Russian concentration around Donbas is leaving their front line far too stretched elsewhere, and the Ukrainians are now taking full advantage.
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... dE4o1YZGwA
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Lowbankclaret
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by Lowbankclaret » Mon May 02, 2022 6:01 pm
Elwa, it’s interesting that people were debating about, did Russia hold back its best kit to deploy later. I think we know that answer now. At this rate in 10 weeks time Ukraine could be rolling back into the Crimea.
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GodIsADeeJay81
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by GodIsADeeJay81 » Mon May 02, 2022 9:04 pm
I know we've got systems that can track where artillery is firing from and return it, will that will work with this older russian stuff?
I'm assuming the newer artillery uses electronic equipment that makes it easier to find them, does the old stuff?
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NewClaret
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by NewClaret » Tue May 03, 2022 8:38 am
GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 9:04 pm
I know we've got systems that can track where artillery is firing from and return it, will that will work with this older russian stuff?
I'm assuming the newer artillery uses electronic equipment that makes it easier to find them, does the old stuff?
No idea on the answer to your question, but I am pretty worried that they must have more modern equipment somewhere? Are they waiting for Ukraine to use all their weapons on the old stuff before sending the better stuff in?
Although that video posted yesterday seems to suggest even worse kit is being sent!!
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Lancasterclaret
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by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 03, 2022 10:28 am
NewClaret wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 8:38 am
No idea on the answer to your question, but I am pretty worried that they must have more modern equipment somewhere? Are they waiting for Ukraine to use all their weapons on the old stuff before sending the better stuff in?
Although that video posted yesterday seems to suggest even worse kit is being sent!!
Not a chance
What they might be doing is stripping the units on the borders of their decent equipment and sending it to Ukraine, while replacing the stuff on the borders with repaired/reconditioned equipment (most of which won't be in working order)
It would be absolute suicide for a country the size of Russia, with all the potential internal and border issues to do this btw, but that is where they are
The longer this goes on, the danger of really serious flare ups on the other borders seriously increases (bizarrely, the one border they can safely do this on is the NATO one, as they know that we are a defensive alliance)