Covid-19

[Elizabeth]

I know I am a few hours late but have been watching a film starring my favourite film star Kirk ' the dimple' Douglas.

I am Ringo

[Paul Waine]

interesting news from Singapore plus some details that would be relevant to the Lockdown thread:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52232147

Meanwhile in Germany we see a different approach, wonder how this will turnout !

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52243158

Both interesting links, Kate.

This bit in the Germany report surprised me:

Farm workers fly in
In another exception to Germany's lockdown, the federal government is allowing thousands of Romanians and Poles to fly in to help with the spring harvest, especially to pick asparagus and strawberries.

[KateR]

Both interesting links, Kate.

This bit in the Germany report surprised me:

Farm workers fly in
In another exception to Germany's lockdown, the federal government is allowing thousands of Romanians and Poles to fly in to help with the spring harvest, especially to pick asparagus and strawberries.

very interesting times we are living through, will be the subject of numerous books/films and will be taught in schools/universities the world over in areas of politics, science/medical/geography, etc. etc. Things definitely happening that I certainly wouldn't have predicted two months ago, areas where we can only watch and see what happens, opening the beach in one area of Germany and allowing no one from other regions to use seems odd to me, will it result in an increase for that area, we will see?

The biggest test is coming for many in regard to lifting lockdowns of any shape or form and seeing the results, many will be watching, and the more that do the more others will question why not us?

[thatdberight]

But that is the whole point. The report is fairly neutral...but the super soaraway sun (OK I know it doesn't call itself that now) has printed a headline which implies that foreign health staff are bad.

Of course, it's a down-market rag that needs to grab its readers' little interest so it'll come up with a truncated, attention-grabbing summary but that's not an entirely unreasonable headline. If the writer of the report, Prof Peter Griffiths said, “Our results show how important it is to invest in the domestic supply of nurses.” then the failure to so invest must be damaging to the health service.

[Lowbankclaret]

Still better than post after post of people incorrectly extrapolating data, and then attempting to spread unbridled panic.

Interesting, been out delivering Face Shields again today.

It interesting to see that the people out and about are just ignoring the advise.

As for data, that data said we would hit 10,000 around this weekend, that was seen with much scepticism.

Then people say you want it to happen or some such twaddle.

You guys just read what bits you want to believe.

[dsr]

Is it too much to ask for the secretary of Health & Social care to field the question about the amount of people under his remit have died? And If he doesn't want to give a number explain the reasons and perhaps eulogise them instead of getting a lackey to do it so he can keep his hands clean.

How many was it?

(And I think you have a very old-fashioned view of boss-staff relationships there. Wherever you work it might be considered appropriate to call the factory hands or other lower paid workers "lackeys" - though very few places would go for that sort of master-serf implication nowadays - but never for senior management people.)

[LoveCurryPies]

CNN reporting the virus has reached an Amazon tribe. Young lad dies and fears are without a health system they could be wiped out.

[Lowbankclaret]

CNN reporting the virus has reached an Amazon tribe. Young lad dies and fears are without a health system they could be wiped out.

Cannot be true, ask the Covid experts on here, only 1% will die.

Papers eh!

[tim_noone]

Cannot be true, ask the Covid experts on here, only 1% will die.

Papers eh!

Well that gordleman did say........

[Spijed]

Cannot be true, ask the Covid experts on here, only 1% will die.

Papers eh!

Obviously you don't think there are many cases of people with no symptoms if you believe it's far higher than 1%.

[Lowbankclaret]

Obviously you don't think there are many cases of people with no symptoms if you believe it's far higher than 1%.

I know you have read my posts, and my opinion of the data.

My point is, you cannot have a 1% death rate and wipe out a whole tribe. QED.

[KateR]

however die it is to many. Re Amazon tribe measles imported by Europeans did a go job of decimating them so there is some chance they will be extremely hard hit, time will tell.

If 1% die will that not be a lot more than 10K? Not sure what was really being said between the two. But the 1% was for a country such as UK and others, you can't compare an Amazon tribe to a country, like taking a village in Northern Italy and trying to work numbers to suit the narrative

[Rileybobs]

I know you have read my posts, and my opinion of the data.

My point is, you cannot have a 1% death rate and wipe out a whole tribe. QED.

But a whole tribe hasn’t been wiped out.

[jackmiggins]

I believe much depends on genealogy & immunology. Depending on the size of the tribe, it is quite possible that the virus could prove fatal to an extremely high proportion of their population as it’s likely they haven’t been exposed to the same range, or extent, viruses as much of the World’s population.

[Elbarad]

I'd be interested to see people's thoughts on the different death rates of people who have tested positive. This takes out of the equation the untested, asymptomatic folks. For reference I'm using data from this website, which I believe is good data coming from Johns Hopkins Univ in Baltimore. The one thing I wish it had was a total number of US deaths to make it an easier comparison. But looking at CNN's data it shows 18, 693 at the time I wrote this.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/he ... and-cases/

That puts the US fatality rate at .037%. Again, this does not include asymptomatic cases or cases not tested so not a final number by any means. Doing the same math of UK cases I come up with a fatality rate of .12%. a rate of .1277% for Italy, and a rate of .0266% for Germany.

This is data from some of the countries that I believe the numbers for but it's interesting to me that they vary so widely. I do not believe the USA and Germany are especially more healthy (certainly not the obesity cursed USA or have markedly better health care available.

I'm truly not trying making a point, or scoring points, I'm just curious as to what the thoughts are from people from another country. I'm just searching for a reason that these countries who I believe have comparable health care, and who report their data as accurately as possible would have such a wide variance.

I'm not a maths specialist by any means, so perhaps I'm doing my figures wrong. I'm simply dividing deaths by cases tested positive.

Edit: Is it simply a question of people being tested? The number of tests available in the US is often reported as being low, often enough that I tend to believe it. But if that was the reason then I would have to believe that the number of tests available in the UK and Italy are much fewer.

[Zlatan]

Cannot be true, ask the Covid experts on here, only 1% will die.

Papers eh!

When 2 billion people are dead worldwide I’ll listen to you about death rates as that is the amount based on your 26% death rate

[Bfcboyo]

I watched that documentary film with Gwyneth Paltrow in and Laurence Fishhead last night. Its frightening what is happening in the US right now. I went out looting this morning following the advice from Matt Damon in the doc.

[Devils_Advocate]

I'd be interested to see people's thoughts on the different death rates of people who have tested positive. This takes out of the equation the untested, asymptomatic folks.

Hi Elbarad, this is just one artcles views and whilst it doesnt have all the answers and might have inaccuracies in itself it does outline a few possible reasons why the death rates for different countries vary so much


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 ... tes-differ

[paulatky]

Worrying development in South Korea where 91 people yesterday who tested positive had already had the disease.

[CombatClaret]

Official UK government risk register from 2008

EVUKGg8XQAA_edC.jpg (70.04 KiB) Viewed 3423 times

[dsr]

Worrying development in South Korea where 91 people yesterday who tested positive had already had the disease.

Probably means they had it and it hadn't gone away.

[AndrewJB]

OK.

Some of your points are factually correct. Newspapers, like many things, for example are owned by rich people. Yes.

I noticed you left out some of the original's most jaundiced comments but still, "Do the owners benefit from Conservative policies?" just leads down the usual rabbit hole. Yes, in my view. Because we all do, in my view. There. Easy. Back to square one. Because the insinuation behind the comment was.. "... to the detriment of others".

Stupid game this. AndrewJB will keep seeing the world his way. I'll keep seeing it mine. You'll imagine you're somewhere balanced and impartial in the middle while liking posts that say right-wing politics is about fear and left-wing politics is about making things brilliant and fixing things. At least AndrewJB knows where he stands.

My original response to Ringo set out why the Guardian isn't just a left wing version of the Telegraph, so therefore not one set of biased views instead of another. The key point with this is that the Guardian is not owned by or beholden to any person or group. It is more free than the rest of our "free" press. Editorially it is "left of centre" though to underline the point, there is no shadowy group in the background that benefits from this stance. Its news reporting is not compromised by the editorial position, and for this reason it's seen as a trusted news source around the world.

In comparison to this, we've agreed the right wing press is owned by very rich men, and these men gain under the policies of the Tory Party. Another point I made, and one you haven't commented on is these newspapers actively campaigned for a Tory government, and actively campaigned against the other parties - effectively acting as the propaganda arm of the Conservative Party. The cancelling of the Leveson Inquiry, and the refusal to implement Leveson's proposals can be seen as quid pro quo. It's all a matter of public record, so while the Guardian informs people, the right wing press largely do not.

[thatdberight]

Cannot be true, ask the Covid experts on here, only 1% will die.

Papers eh!

It was good when you had something useful to do. It both showed your good side and stopped you showing your foolish side.

[thatdberight]

I know you have read my posts, and my opinion of the data.

My point is, you cannot have a 1% death rate and wipe out a whole tribe. QED.

"There are fears". They haven't actually been wiped out. That's not even what CNN's report says. It's just what somebody said on here. But, instead of asking for a source, you jump on it because it backs up your lunatic theories. Do you know how daft that is?

[thatdberight]

My original response to Ringo set out why the Guardian isn't just a left wing version of the Telegraph, so therefore not one set of biased views instead of another. The key point with this is that the Guardian is not owned by or beholden to any person or group. It is more free than the rest of our "free" press. Editorially it is "left of centre" though to underline the point, there is no shadowy group in the background that benefits from this stance. Its news reporting is not compromised by the editorial position, and for this reason it's seen as a trusted news source around the world.

In comparison to this, we've agreed the right wing press is owned by very rich men, and these men gain under the policies of the Tory Party. Another point I made, and one you haven't commented on is these newspapers actively campaigned for a Tory government, and actively campaigned against the other parties - effectively acting as the propaganda arm of the Conservative Party. The cancelling of the Leveson Inquiry, and the refusal to implement Leveson's proposals can be seen as quid pro quo. It's all a matter of public record, so while the Guardian informs people, the right wing press largely do not.

Let's not. Even in a short piece like this, your argument is so full of what are, to you, clearly linked facts and to me suppositions and overstretches that we're not going to agree. Ever. You keep punting for your view of the world and I'll keep reassuring myself that, when it matters, the majority of people choose not to agree with it.

[dsr]

COVID-19.

There is important information to be found on this thread about covid-19 and hopefully this thread will continue to be about covid-19.

Anyone who wishes to talk about national newspaper editorial policy, I have set up a new thread for you. Go and use it.

[thatdberight]

COVID-19.

There is important information to be found on this thread about covid-19 and hopefully this thread will continue to be about covid-19.

Anyone who wishes to talk about national newspaper editorial policy, I have set up a new thread for you. Go and use it.

If anyone comes here looking for important information, they need redirecting pronto. This is just an internet message board.

[thatdberight]

917 more deaths (with all the data flaws, omissions and delays we know about) in the previous 24 hours. Lower than yesterday. Evidence tentatively suggesting we're starting to hit a peak (today's figure not yet on this graph).

Screenshot_20200411-144556.jpg (123.27 KiB) Viewed 3271 times

[CombatClaret]

917 more deaths (with all the data flaws, omissions and delays we know about) in the previous 24 hours. Lower than yesterday. Evidence tentatively suggesting we're starting to hit a peak (today's figure not yet on this graph).

Weekends have always shown reduced numbers due to reporting practices.

Daily data is very noisy, long terms trends will show the truth.

[paulatky]

I know you have read my posts, and my opinion of the data.

My point is, you cannot have a 1% death rate and wipe out a whole tribe. QED.

Yes you can.The 1% death rate is worldwide average so there will be places with higher and places with lower.

[Elbarad]

Hi Elbarad, this is just one artcles views and whilst it doesnt have all the answers and might have inaccuracies in itself it does outline a few possible reasons why the death rates for different countries vary so much


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 ... tes-differ

That was a very interesting article and by chance dealt with the exact countries I was asking about. Thank you.

[thatdberight]

Weekends have always shown reduced numbers due to reporting practices.

And yet what really happened...

April 04 (Saturday) - deaths reported higher than the previous day and the two days that followed
March 28 (Saturday) - deaths reported higher than the previous day and the two days that followed
March 21 (Saturday) - deaths reported higher than the previous day and the two days that followed

Don't you check stuff isn't just your perception before you post it?

[dsr]

If anyone comes here looking for important information, they need redirecting pronto. This is just an internet message board.

And redirecting is exactly what people do. If you don't know there's anything to look for, it's very hard to find; so many people raise issues on here that it lets us all know what we're looking for.

[thatdberight]

And redirecting is exactly what people do. If you don't know there's anything to look for, it's very hard to find; so many people raise issues on here that it lets us all know what we're looking for.

Yes, and I've tried to do that repeatedly. But not all directions are equal. The single best advice I would believe I could give anyone is find a credible official source and stick to it. Ignore mine and other posters' posts - even when they purport to be neutral or factual.

The official source may be wrong - but it's a better bet than even the sum of the offerings on here.

PS: Obviously don't ignore my post advising you ignore my posts. Just the rest of them. Would be my advice.

[paulatky]

And yet what really happened...

April 04 (Saturday) - deaths reported higher than the previous day and the two days that followed
March 28 (Saturday) - deaths reported higher than the previous day and the two days that followed
March 21 (Saturday) - deaths reported higher than the previous day and the two days that followed

Don't you check stuff isn't just your perception before you post it?

But yesterday was a bank holiday so not fair to compare todays reported numbers with previous Saturdays

[tiger76]

The death figures have been up and down all week,there is signs that the peak may be nearing,but it's far too early too state that yet.

And bear in mind all these numbers are only deaths recorded in hospitals,the true final figures will sadly be much higher,once fatalities in the care sector and the community are added,to counter that it does state corona related deaths,so it might well be the case that many of these patients would have passed away due to other causes,this is why it's hard to ascertain definitive numbers.

Analysis: Too soon to know whether UK deaths slowing

Robert Cuffe

BBC head of statistics

In its daily update, the Department of Health and Social care has announced 917 new coronavirus-related hospital deaths in the UK.

That figure is down from the 980 new deaths it reported yesterday.

In fact, the growth in the number of new deaths has stalled over the past four days.

In some other countries that have implemented lockdowns, the numbers of reported deaths stopped growing about three weeks into lockdown.

Today is too soon to know for sure whether we have reached that point.

There have been reporting lags at weekends and it is possible that the bank holiday weekend will see deaths go unreported until next week.

New coronavirus-related reported hospital deaths in the UK:

11 April: 917
10 April: 980
9 April: 881
8 April 938
7 April: 786
6 April: 441
5 April: 621

[NottsClaret]

Going to come as a nasty shock to some when the virus is over and 1,600 people still die every day.

[thatdberight]

The death figures have been up and down all week,there is signs that the peak may be nearing,but it's far too early too state that yet.

I believe we're in complete agreement.

[thatdberight]

But yesterday was a bank holiday so not fair to compare todays reported numbers with previous Saturdays

In what way? In any particular way or just in some way that it's always worse than it seems?

I have two friends who work in the non-patient-facing areas of the healthcare system. Please be assured that the concept of a bank holiday didn't exist yesterday for them any more than the doctors and nurses.

[TVC15]

But yesterday was a bank holiday so not fair to compare todays reported numbers with previous Saturdays

What ?
How exactly do you think a bank holiday impacts the reported numbers ?

[CombatClaret]

And yet what really happened...

April 04 (Saturday) - deaths reported higher than the previous day and the two days that followed
March 28 (Saturday) - deaths reported higher than the previous day and the two days that followed
March 21 (Saturday) - deaths reported higher than the previous day and the two days that followed

Don't you check stuff isn't just your perception before you post it?

I did not say the number would not be higher than the days preceding, I said it would be reduced, as in from the true number.

"Experts are warning against over-interpreting daily figures of people dying with Covid-19, since they often reflect reporting delays.
Many hospitals will not report deaths that happened over the weekend until the middle of the following week."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52167016

So kindly do some research yourself, it's a very common factor and one that's been commented on many times.

[ICL]

There’s been some discussion about death rates and how normal / abnormal it is now. PHE publish total weekly (all causes) deaths for the UK. It is principally used to track the impact of seasonal flu. The data usually lags about week behind the publish date.
Here is the overview up to week 11, you can see we were having a ‘good’ flu winter.

IMG_0005.PNG (483.38 KiB) Viewed 3057 times

Skip forward to the latest released figures and you can see the start of the impact COVID-19. Unlike anything seen in recent times in this country.

IMG_0004.PNG (609.33 KiB) Viewed 3057 times

[thatdberight]

I did not say the number would not be higher than the days preceding, I said it would be reduced, as in from the true number.

"Experts are warning against over-interpreting daily figures of people dying with Covid-19, since they often reflect reporting delays.
Many hospitals will not report deaths that happened over the weekend until the middle of the following week."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52167016

So kindly do some research yourself, it's a very common factor and one that's been commented on many times.

Well aware of that. That's why my comment was phrased as carefully as it was - absolutely in line with what's said above. Not over-interpreting or relying on one day or making out that we were anything but maybe starting to hit a peak.

It wasn't me who made the demonstrably erroneous statement that "Weekends have always shown reduced numbers". They haven't. Saturdays have shown higher numbers.

Just in case you've misremembered and think I said, "Yay! It's over", here's what I said with the 4 caveats highlighted.

"Evidence tentatively suggesting we're starting to hit a peak"

[Top Claret]

Thick Burnley folk parked up around Clowbridge res today, whilst Lancashire constabulary out delivering Easter eggs

[keith1879]

Let's not. Even in a short piece like this, your argument is so full of what are, to you, clearly linked facts and to me suppositions and overstretches that we're not going to agree. Ever. You keep punting for your view of the world and I'll keep reassuring myself that, when it matters, the majority of people choose not to agree with it.

So what are the suppositions and overstretches?

[Elizabeth]

Not sure which thread this belongs on.
A man was threatened by police with some kind of spray. His crime? Dropping off goods at a vulnerable relatives
Before any apologists jump on this, the police have apologised.

[thatdberight]

So what are the suppositions and overstretches?

I have no arguments. I'm a scared sad Tory boy who makes stuff up. Does that allow us to stop?

[keith1879]

I have no arguments. I'm a scared sad Tory boy who makes stuff up. Does that allow us to stop?

It's more or less what I expected. Have a good weekend.

[Lowbankclaret]

CK, thank you for your kind donation.
Two new printers have arrived and will be manufacturing tomorrow morning.
318 delivered Face Shields.
1700 to go.

https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding ... =WKWj6v72q

[Lowbankclaret]

Worrying development in South Korea where 91 people yesterday who tested positive had already had the disease.

There are reports saying there are three strains, I guess you can catch all three.