Russia Invades

[Goalposts]

The UKR will need to rest , rearm and swap out troops soon so i expect things to slow down in the next 24 hours , or that’s what military doctrine would say , but the UKR performance and the russian collapse and speed at which they can reorganise remain unknown and speculative..

Still a remarkable 72 plus hours from the ukr

[CombatClaret]

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1568701282214641666
Ukrainian infantry crossing the Oskil River
If all Ukrainian units involved are carrying similar amounts of anti-tank weapons, then its going to be very hard for anything armoured to move freely to seal gaps and stop the penetration

It was successful in provoking Russia to move equipment and personnel to the southern front, including partly from Kharkiv region, said Berezovets.
“Meanwhile [our] guys in Kharkiv were given the best of western weapons, mostly American,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... n-campaign

[Lowbankclaret]

Looks to be old Lancaster, no blue tape etc on them, might also explain why they are so relaxed.

The speed of there advance certainly scares me though it is too quick almost does seem deliberate on the Russian side. Next few days will be interesting seen a few things suggesting a push south to the Black Sea as well.

I have read loads of stuff, watched loads of blogs etc.

My overall impression, which could biased, is that the Russians are overstretched, under equipped and of low moral.

They have lost 80% of the initial invasion force that is now KIA or injured.

I think and hope this collapse will continue

[Gaia]

You know things are going terribly for the Kremlin when their chief propagandist starts reminiscing about the good old times when songs were sang in both Ukrainian and Russian. That's after calling for our extermination for months.

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/15 ... -XELw&s=19

[Goalposts]

In a slightly amusing announcement of late the Kyiv council founded in 482 rescinded the decree allowing the formation of Moscow in 1147 granted by the council & by Grand duke. Yuriy. Moscow no longer exists as a city and cannot use the name moscow in any future city reconstitution…

[Rumbletonk]

Cheers to all that post the links and info on this thread. Much appreciated

[Hipper]

BBC latest:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62867560

[Hipper]

Have we seen this?

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/11/ ... -possible/

It says that Ukraine has one million combat troops.

I suspect this article is a bit pro-Ukraine but it seems to have O'Brien's seal of approval his Twitter page (which I've finally signed up to).

[bfcjg]

Couple of interesting articles.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/putin-finishe ... 14600.html
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/moscow-offici ... 17069.html

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-rus ... 20054.html

[Lancasterclaret]

Ukrainian troops right up to the border in Kharkiv oblast

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 3456531456

[Goalposts]

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 66/video/1

This is from a pro russian, shows a Ukrainian attack at Pisky which is next to Donetsk airport, loss of one tank and crew escape into woods, but gives a feel of the reality of it all

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/sta ... 0838308865

Border post completely deserted

Ukraine won't cross in any force (well, I don't think they will but who knows?) but they will be targeting military installations with the stuff they haven't got from Western sources, and they have captured/already have a fair amount of stuff to attack with

[JarrowClaret]

The UKR will need to rest , rearm and swap out troops soon so i expect things to slow down in the next 24 hours , or that’s what military doctrine would say , but the UKR performance and the russian collapse and speed at which they can reorganise remain unknown and speculative..

Still a remarkable 72 plus hours from the ukr

They are advancing with 2 (US) divisional size units forward with 1 behind in reserve, I imagine if any reserve will be needed it will be the third unit. Not sure this will slow it down though what will slow them down is when the Russians start reacting with fire on masse and holding ground rather than some sort of hasty retreat that we have seen recently.

On another note Russian missile strikes throughout Ukraine today a typical terrorist reaction.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Fireblade577/status ... 4328136707

Some bloke on twitter on Aug 20th absolutely predicting what would happen

[Lancasterclaret]

They are advancing with 2 (US) divisional size units forward with 1 behind in reserve, I imagine if any reserve will be needed it will be the third unit. Not sure this will slow it down though what will slow them down is when the Russians start reacting with fire on masse and holding ground rather than some sort of hasty retreat that we have seen recently.

On another note Russian missile strikes throughout Ukraine today a typical terrorist reaction.

And about all they have left now to do

Their cruise missile attacks on cities have been intercepted at greater and greater rates as Ukraine gets better equipment and better at spotting them and shooting them down

What you are seeing is degrading of Russian offensive ability and you do wonder what they have left in the tank

[NewClaret]

The tone of Russian TV is changing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNe ... 3909022720

The ending is brilliant. Although I wouldn’t be visiting any tall buildings if I were that chap.

[Lancasterclaret]

The tone of Russian TV is changing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNe ... 3909022720

The ending is brilliant. Although I wouldn’t be visiting any tall buildings if I were that chap.

Thing is, even the one who seemed to talk sense, they all don't get that Ukraine does not want to be part of Russia in anyway, shape or form

They think that can offer Ukraine some special status in Russia and it will all be fine

Until they get the hang of that then they will continue to make very bad decisions on how to deal with Ukraine and how Ukraine will deal with them

The key is the state duma member saying they will take as long it takes (as this is all state sanctioned)

If they aren't going to grasp the reality of the situation, then they will probably mobilise (which will help them in a long war, but not in the short or medium term) and will involve serious unrest at home and severe economic penalties (remember Ukraines economy is essentially f**ked because it has mobilised, but Ukraine is backed by essentially unlimited credit, while Russia is backed by North Korea, Syria and Iran)

[Lancasterclaret]

Thing is, even the one who seemed to talk sense, they all don't get that Ukraine does not want to be part of Russia in anyway, shape or form

They think that can offer Ukraine some special status in Russia and it will all be fine

Until they get the hang of that then they will continue to make very bad decisions on how to deal with Ukraine and how Ukraine will deal with them

The key is the state duma member saying they will take as long it takes (as this is all state sanctioned)

If they aren't going to grasp the reality of the situation, then they will probably mobilise (which will help them in a long war, but not in the short or medium term) and will involve serious unrest at home and severe economic penalties (remember Ukraines economy is essentially f**ked because it has mobilised, but Ukraine is backed by essentially unlimited credit, while Russia is backed by North Korea, Syria and Iran)

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 0272454663

Zelensky puts it much better

[ClaretLoup]

Yeah the one who wants to talk to the Ukrainians imagines that they can convince them to throw their lot in with Mafia run Russia after destroying large part of their infrastructure stealing their grain, looting their homes and cars, making 10 million women and children homeless, bombing shopping malls, apartment blocks and railway stations.

Let’s hope there is a complete military defeat for Russia as there will be no point negotiating with any Russian Government with Putin in charge or not. I think Zelensky has grasped this point.

[Lancasterclaret]

Great thread on why Russian morale is so bad, and not likely to improve

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 0466144261

[NewClaret]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 0272454663

Zelensky puts it much better

He does. Brilliant speech by Zelensky.

And this is another advantage Ukraine has: an inspiring leader. If I were living in the East and stuck on the fence at the start of the war (sure there’s a few of these), you couldn’t help being engaged more by Zelensky than Putin, who’s largely anonymous, regurgitates blatant lies when he does speak, and has a face like a slapped backside.

[Hipper]

https://twitter.com/Fireblade577/status ... 4328136707

Some bloke on twitter on Aug 20th absolutely predicting what would happen

One of the things mentioned is the Ukrainian 'institutes' being compromised by Russians so any war planning will become known to the latter. Presumably they have managed to sort this out.

[Hipper]

I like the look of this map! Astonishing achievement.

Kharkiv Battle Map Draft September 11,2022 (1).jpg (204.78 KiB) Viewed 3133 times

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ptember-11

[bfcjg]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568938225787363330
More scenes of liberation.

[Goalposts]

An interesting read, with some theories and possibilities of the road Russia now finds itself going down

https://paulmasonnews.medium.com/kharki ... 3041e505b6

[Lancasterclaret]

One of the things mentioned is the Ukrainian 'institutes' being compromised by Russians so any war planning will become known to the latter. Presumably they have managed to sort this out.

I think they have used this to their advantage, I do wonder if they leaked bits so that crystallised Russian intel to think it was all going to be happening down in Kherson

You are familair with the term "Maskirovka"?

Its a Russian military term for deception, and is probably best remembered for Operation Bagration in 1944

But the Ukrainians have used it brilliantly here, spending months talking up the Kherson offensive, including getting NATO allies to talk about it, to the extent that Russia (who have limited combat troops and formations now) to bet their defence on on Kherson Oblast

And this is the result

Remarkable

[LeadBelly]

As per LancasterClaret & NewClaret above, I think that speech by Zelensky is truly inspiring for his people, doubt even Churchill bettered that.

Do you still think that we (Rusiians & Ukrainians) are “one people”?
Do you still think that you can scare us, break us, make us make concessions?
You really did not understand anything.
Don’t understand who we are? What are we for? What are we talking about?

Read my lips:
Without gas or without you? without you
Without light or without you? without you
Without water or without you? without you
Without food or without you? without you
Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your “friendship and brotherhood”.

But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food … and WITHOUT you!

[Sottpark1 !]

That is an amazing piece of rhetoric, just wish it would filter through to the Russian masses..the garbage propaganda shows that air each night there, this crystallises the Ukrainian view its black to their white their is no happy reunion with “ mother “ Russia their Rus world view is doomed !

[JarrowClaret]

I think they have used this to their advantage, I do wonder if they leaked bits so that crystallised Russian intel to think it was all going to be happening down in Kherson

You are familair with the term "Maskirovka"?

Its a Russian military term for deception, and is probably best remembered for Operation Bagration in 1944

But the Ukrainians have used it brilliantly here, spending months talking up the Kherson offensive, including getting NATO allies to talk about it, to the extent that Russia (who have limited combat troops and formations now) to bet their defence on on Kherson Oblast

And this is the result

Remarkable

Not sure there was all that much deception if I’m honest, they clearly advertised Kherson a lot more but the build up in the North was noticeable and never hidden so I suspect it was always going to be a double effort at some point.

My friend is in the South and his language suggests that This is still a main effort clearly he is guarded in what he says but the tone and words he uses does not suggest anything other than trying to take back the south. In the south they have been deliberately taking there time to limit loss of life and to attrit the Russians as much as possible before moving in. In the North they got very little resistance it would seem partly because some of the troops were moved to Kherson, Donbas et but also because the Russians just didn’t have any fight in them surrendered or ran away.

[bfcjg]

The tone of Russian TV is changing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNe ... 3909022720

The ending is brilliant. Although I wouldn’t be visiting any tall buildings if I were that chap.

The only concern is that a couple of the pundits appear more deranged then Putin. Great ending and more cracks appearing.

[LeadBelly]

An interesting read, with some theories and possibilities of the road Russia now finds itself going down

https://paulmasonnews.medium.com/kharki ... 3041e505b6

Yes there are some good & interesting lines of analysis there that I've not seen covered elsewhere. When I linked through there was a bit highlighted:
" Putin is being defeated because he has reduced the Russian security elite to a clique that cannot face, vocalise or accurately analyse the truth- either about the enemy or about itself"

This is a good point and made me smile - recognising the Sun Tzu "The Art of War" piece written over 2000 years ago.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

[Lancasterclaret]

Not sure there was all that much deception if I’m honest, they clearly advertised Kherson a lot more but the build up in the North was noticeable and never hidden so I suspect it was always going to be a double effort at some point.

My friend is in the South and his language suggests that This is still a main effort clearly he is guarded in what he says but the tone and words he uses does not suggest anything other than trying to take back the south. In the south they have been deliberately taking there time to limit loss of life and to attrit the Russians as much as possible before moving in. In the North they got very little resistance it would seem partly because some of the troops were moved to Kherson, Donbas et but also because the Russians just didn’t have any fight in them surrendered or ran away.

I dunno

They clearly had the eyes of the Russian high command fixed on Kherson, enough so that they both moved reinforcements there and enough for them to leave a crucial part of the front very lightly held (Kupanysk was a Ukrainian target in the spring as well)

Plus its very hard to hide evidence of an offensive, especially with all the UAVs, HUMNIT and SIGNIT being generated

Either way, they have either planned it brilliantly or taken advantage of a localised attack and maximised it very successfully

With Ukraine in charge of Kupyansk and the border opposite Kharkov, it pretty much removes the danger of an envelopment around Sloviansk and Krematorsk, and almost certainly will allow more advances deeper into Donestk and Luhansk oblasts, which is really bad news if you are a Russian supporter in either region

[claretonthecoast1882]

As per LancasterClaret & NewClaret above, I think that speech by Zelensky is truly inspiring for his people, doubt even Churchill bettered that.

Do you still think that we (Rusiians & Ukrainians) are “one people”?
Do you still think that you can scare us, break us, make us make concessions?
You really did not understand anything.
Don’t understand who we are? What are we for? What are we talking about?

Read my lips:
Without gas or without you? without you
Without light or without you? without you
Without water or without you? without you
Without food or without you? without you
Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your “friendship and brotherhood”.

But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food … and WITHOUT you!

You would imagine even someone like Putin on hearing this might start thinking we aren't gonna win this

[Billy Balfour]

Takes some doing to argue against the Kremlin line on Russian TV. I don't think I would be so brave.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1569266417085579265

Battle fatigue?

Constant ops degrading the service schedule?

Either way, Russian Su-25SM crashes after taking off

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russias-relia ... 00936.html
Article regarding Russian reliance on mercenaries now.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 1691335681

Russian Opsec is hopeless

They are allowing people to film a tank column going through a very recognisable Ukrainian city without a care in the world

[karatekid]

I’m amazed that in this day of satellites and drones Russia still fell for the ruse of a Ukrainian counter attack in the South. Why didn’t they pick up the movement of troops and equipment?
Maybe the Ukrainians dropped a body with a briefcase attached full of fake plans.

[Lancasterclaret]

I’m amazed that in this day of satellites and drones Russia still fell for the ruse of a Ukrainian counter attack in the South. Why didn’t they pick up the movement of troops and equipment?
Maybe the Ukrainians dropped a body with a briefcase attached full of fake plans.

Simply, they were being told by all the information available that the attack was coming at Kherson

Once they got into that mindset, anything coming out of Kharkiv could be disregarded as a normal rotation of troops, or even exhausted troops from the Kherson front coming to the Kharkiv front for R & R

If you (or in this case, the Russian C & C) are convinced that one thing is right, and everyone is telling you that it is, then its very hard to change that mind set

Operation Crusader 1941-42 in the desert v Rommel

Rommel became fixated on taking Tobruck, so anything that distracted him from doing that, he ignored. Once the allies started some false infor about moving troops to Syria in case the Russians collapsed, he seized on that

Even when he was shown pictures of the Allied railway line from Mersa Matruh being extended towards the front line, he refused to see because it told him stuff that he didn't want to hear

Now if Rommel can be fooled, then its not that hard to imagine the very hard pressed and political appointees of the Russian army can be as well

[Colburn_Claret]

Not sure there was all that much deception if I’m honest, they clearly advertised Kherson a lot more but the build up in the North was noticeable and never hidden so I suspect it was always going to be a double effort at some point.

My friend is in the South and his language suggests that This is still a main effort clearly he is guarded in what he says but the tone and words he uses does not suggest anything other than trying to take back the south. In the south they have been deliberately taking there time to limit loss of life and to attrit the Russians as much as possible before moving in. In the North they got very little resistance it would seem partly because some of the troops were moved to Kherson, Donbas et but also because the Russians just didn’t have any fight in them surrendered or ran away.

I read a report a couple of days ago, that the Ukrainians rounded up known collaborators and sympathisers, before they started massing for the push. It's great to feed on all this information, especially when it's positive news, but the need for secrecy is just as important today as it was in WWII. Only in this technological age secrecy, and disinformation, is a hell of a lot harder.

[Lowbankclaret]

Extreme caution on watching this link. This shows very close combat in the trench’s and Russians get shot.

I saw it yesterday but thought it might get deleted.

https://twitter.com/languageiearner/sta ... PlLg10HHsA

[Hipper]

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1569266417085579265

Battle fatigue?

Constant ops degrading the service schedule?

Either way, Russian Su-25SM crashes after taking off

Poor flying I'd suggest.

The rear aircraft doesn't follow exactly his leader's behaviour and so has to turn sharper to keep in position. He over does it.

[Lowbankclaret]

Poor flying I'd suggest.

The rear aircraft doesn't follow exactly his leader's behaviour and so has to turn sharper to keep in position. He over does it.

I have just watched it several times, because those aircraft have loads of power, so I was surprised when it crashed.

If you watch the exhaust trail the aircraft that crashes it appears to increase power as both planes do and you can see from both planes a dark exhaust trail.
That crash plane trail goes darker and then stops.

I prophase he had an engine failure of some type, not a catastrophic one, seen loads of those on video and aftermath of parts I have seen.

[Oshkoshclaret]

Overbanked slow and heavy, stall. Wake turbulence possibly a factor.

[Lancasterclaret]

Russian Frogfoot narrowly avoiding being hit by MANPADS

https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/ ... 7681628161

[Hipper]

I have just watched it several times, because those aircraft have loads of power, so I was surprised when it crashed.

If you watch the exhaust trail the aircraft that crashes it appears to increase power as both planes do and you can see from both planes a dark exhaust trail.
That crash plane trail goes darker and then stops.

I prophase he had an engine failure of some type, not a catastrophic one, seen loads of those on video and aftermath of parts I have seen.

Yes I see that now. Good spot!

Flame outs I think they're called. Could be caused by anything then. Seems to coincide with reaching 180 degrees bank. Also looks like he flies into the wake of the first aircraft. Of course this pilot had no chance then, being so near to the ground and at 180 degrees bank (which is not a good angle for lift!)

[bfcjg]

An American general give his view on the collapse of Russia.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/collapse-russ ... 52649.html
More comments on the capitulation of the Russian army.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/surrender-fev ... 56989.html

[Colburn_Claret]

An American general give his view on the collapse of Russia.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/collapse-russ ... 52649.html
More comments on the capitulation of the Russian army.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/surrender-fev ... 56989.html

I went into a link on the second thread, re the tone of the broadcasts.

It isn't just what they say, it's the rhetoric they use, the body language. There is real hatred in them, hatred for a people they think shouldn't exist, unless it's under a Russian regime, and hatred because they are getting their arses kicked. Can anyone imagine our presenters talking about "squeezing the life out of this snake", or "stamping on their necks". These aren't people, they are animals. The Psyche of some of these Russians leaves no hope of a happy ending to this war. They need to be defeated totally, and/or the Russian people rising up and removing them.
There is no reasoning with anyone who can use this language in a debate

[TonbridgeClaret]

Has anyone seen an updated map? According to this, Ukraine has liberated a further 20 settlements today.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/surrender-fev ... 56989.html