Covid-19

[Zlatan]

....Start breaking the guidelines

where have you been the past couple of weeks - Westminster Bridge...; street parties everywhere... (anecdotally from Facebook) - people already dont give a sh1t anyway...

[Grumps]

where have you been the past couple of weeks - Westminster Bridge...; street parties everywhere... (anecdotally from Facebook) - people already dont give a sh1t anyway...

I was meaning those who are abiding by the rules now, deciding to break them

[Lowbankclaret]

It could be the cocopops, or not just having a go at someone as soon as you see certain usernames. Iam trying, but failing miserably at times
I think it has started, and I think the government need to explain how the exit will look, if, certain criteria is met. That's what's happened in Spain and Italy, they know, if they continue to behave, when they'll be allowed out etc

Sturgeon said in her address today that she cannot see any relaxation happening next week.

I also agree that people are returning to work and traffic is building back up in my humble opinion.

Next weeks figures will be interesting to see. I don’t think the government can keep this lockdown going a lot longer as redundancy notices start getting handed out.

[dsr]

We have already relaxed in my household. My mother (aged 87) was definitely showing signs of wear and tear and so we went for a walk along the canal. It did her a lot of good.

There are a lot of people of similar age who, if forced into lockdown for months, will not come out the other side, or they will cease to be able to function independently. Lockdown as it is now must not continue because it will take more lives than it will save.

[Grumps]

Sturgeon said in her address today that she cannot see any relaxation happening next week.

I also agree that people are returning to work and traffic is building back up in my humble opinion.

Next weeks figures will be interesting to see. I don’t think the government can keep this lockdown going a lot longer as redundancy notices start getting handed out.

Traffic was its highest yesterday for a weekday since lockdown. It could be people travelling for tests, but I doubt it. More cars about round here after dark than there has been

My big pull would be going to see young grandchildren

My relatives in care homes I accept will be a big no for a long time, you just hope you get to see them

There needs to be a carrot at the end of a long stick, but all rumours are there won't be.

There are so many excuses for being out, they will start getting stretched

[jrgbfc]

The government and media are hinting that lockdown is going to be extended until end of May, with nothing to very little changing when its reviewed next week.

[NottsClaret]

My parents are at the stage where if they're told again to 'shield' themselves until there's a vaccine or whatever I think they'll just ignore it. Being locked up at home and not seeing the grandkids isn't really living, so what's the point?

We'll all have to adapt how we live until there's a solution but we absolutely need some flexibility and some hope now. Stay home, stay safe is wearing thin when people's health - and particularly mental health - is already suffering. Not to mention when you lose your job and your kids education goes to s**t.

[aggi]

I went to donate blood the other day which is right in the centre of London (just off Oxford Street). The centre of London was very empty: a few delivery drivers, a few people around the BBC but that was about it. However, I've done the same drive a few times over the past month and, the roads were busier and more people were around on the streets as you got out of central London. Certainly the busiest I've seen it since the lockdown started.

[FactualFrank]

Reports that the lockdown may be extended until June.

[martin_p]

I don’t know what people think the solution is. More contact will mean more infections which will mean more deaths. Evidence today that children may be as infectious as adults even though they have very mild symptoms. It sucks, I get that, but the alternative is more death, maybe yours or someone you love.

[Grumps]

My parents are at the stage where if they're told again to 'shield' themselves until there's a vaccine or whatever I think they'll just ignore it. Being locked up at home and not seeing the grandkids isn't really living, so what's the point?

We'll all have to adapt how we live until there's a solution but we absolutely need some flexibility and some hope now. Stay home, stay safe is wearing thin when people's health - and particularly mental health - is already suffering. Not to mention when you lose your job and your kids education goes to s**t.

Those at the top of the age range will certainly start taking risks, who knows how longs left anyway, like I said grandchildren are a big pull. Italy and Spain have recognised this.... Would be foolhardy if we didn't.

[Grumps]

I don’t know what people think the solution is. More contact will mean more infections which will mean more deaths. Evidence today that children may be as infectious as adults even though they have very mild symptoms. It sucks, I get that, but the alternative is more death, maybe yours or someone you love.

Report today says no child in the world has passed the virus on, so that spread is stopped. Spread the other way can be prevented by distancing, which is what Italy are proposing. The small family gatherings, keeping 2m away and wear mask. Not ideal but better than nowt.

[martin_p]

Report today says no child in the world has passed the virus on, so that spread is stopped. Spread the other way can be prevented by distancing, which is what Italy are proposing. The small family gatherings, keeping 2m away and wear mask. Not ideal but better than nowt.

I’m not sure how they could say that given that not every country is doing contact tracing, have you got a link to the story I’d be interested in understanding how they’ve drawn that conclusion.

[ksrclaret]

Reports that the lockdown may be extended until June.

I think by the end of June many more people will have lost their discipline. If that’s the plan, I think we need some light at the end of the tunnel too.

[jrgbfc]

I think by the end of June many more people will have lost their discipline. If that’s the plan, I think we need some light at the end of the tunnel too.

Another 3 week extension would take us up to the end of May. I think that will be as far as they can go, people will just stop complying with it if they try and extend it any further. I think the government will realise that as well.

[ksrclaret]

Another 3 week extension would take us up to the end of May. I think that will be as far as they can go, people will just stop complying with it if they try and extend it any further. I think the government will realise that as well.

Yes of course sorry I meant end of May/ start of June. I’m losing track of time already!

[NottsClaret]

I don’t know what people think the solution is. More contact will mean more infections which will mean more deaths. Evidence today that children may be as infectious as adults even though they have very mild symptoms. It sucks, I get that, but the alternative is more death, maybe yours or someone you love.

Strictly speaking, it's not more death, but potentially earlier death. The death rate remains pretty consistent at 100% for everyone in the long run. And that's how people of their generation might be thinking, I know my parents are. Eeking out a bit more time in miserable isolation at the expense of all the kids and young families doesn't really appeal to them.

People have got such a fear of this virus now it's already harming the health propects of younger generations also as they're too terrified to go the their GP or get referred for cancer or cardiac problems. We're literally tens of thousands down on where we should be in a couple of months. We're getting so obsessed with one health issue and not seeing the damage everywhere else. Just because there isn't a headline figure running on the 24hr news doesn't mean it isn't happening.

Add in the economic collapse and poverty which is unfolding now and for many years and you can see how lockdown is going to push the original 'doomsday scenario' figures for Covid19 pretty close.

[Grumps]

I’m not sure how they could say that given that not every country is doing contact tracing, have you got a link to the story I’d be interested in understanding how they’ve drawn that conclusion.

Google it.... Just like I was told to do on another matter this morning

[FactualFrank]

Another 3 week extension would take us up to the end of May. I think that will be as far as they can go, people will just stop complying with it if they try and extend it any further. I think the government will realise that as well.

I can tell people aren't sticking to it now.

The roads are certainly busier than when lockdown started. Considerably so.

[jrgbfc]

I can tell people aren't sticking to it now.

The roads are certainly busier than when lockdown started. Considerably so.

Yeah, last week seemed to be when traffic starting picking up. I think a lot of self employed/tradesmen are getting on with it, now the initial panic customers had of them going in their houses is over.

[martin_p]

Strictly speaking, it's not more death, but potentially earlier death. The death rate remains pretty consistent at 100% for everyone in the long run. And that's how people of their generation might be thinking, I know my parents are. Eeking out a bit more time in miserable isolation at the expense of all the kids and young families doesn't really appeal to them.

People have got such a fear of this virus now it's already harming the health propects of younger generations also as they're too terrified to go the their GP or get referred for cancer or cardiac problems. We're literally tens of thousands down on where we should be in a couple of months. We're getting so obsessed with one health issue and not seeing the damage everywhere else. Just because there isn't a headline figure running on the 24hr news doesn't mean it isn't happening.

Add in the economic collapse and poverty which is unfolding now and for many years and you can see how lockdown is going to push the original 'doomsday scenario' figures for Covid19 pretty close.

It’s more death this year, as the figures are proving. I can understand a devil may care attitude if you’ve got less than 12 months to live, although it’s still a selfish attitude as breaking lockdown may well be giving someone else an earlier death, but if you haven’t then it’s a few months, maybe until the end of the year. Things will gradually get better. At least the PM seems to have the right idea. Him getting the virus and thankfully surviving might turn out to be the best thing that has happened in seeing us safely through this as it seems to have given him a more cautious attitude.

[Grumps]

I’m not sure how they could say that given that not every country is doing contact tracing, have you got a link to the story I’d be interested in understanding how they’ve drawn that conclusion.

Guardian on Monday for one, plenty of other links

[martin_p]

Google it.... Just like I was told to do on another matter this morning

That’s the first thing I did. Found a reference to it on the telegraph site but that’s all behind a paywall. Where did you find it?

[Devils_Advocate]

I’m not sure how they could say that given that not every country is doing contact tracing, have you got a link to the story I’d be interested in understanding how they’ve drawn that conclusion.

There you go Martin and it all looks a bit inconclusive to me at this point in time

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... 9-11980568

[martin_p]

Guardian on Monday for one, plenty of other links

Ok, we have conflicting science then as a report today says children are as infectious as adults. I’d want the science to be more consistent before letting children near the elderly. We need to make sure we’re not drawing conclusions based on the wrong things. It’s certainly likely that children have caused few infections as in most countries children are either banned from leaving the house (Spain until recently) or not encouraged to do so other than for exercise. Given that you’re supposed to go shopping by yourself most children stay well away from others, although I accept that’s not the case when there’s a single parent. Plus there’s this possibly Covid related new disease they’ve discovered in small numbers, that needs more investigation too.

[CombatClaret]

The lockdown is what's pushing the R number down so no surprises they will keep adding weeks for as long as possible while they get testing and contact tracing in place at the same time as infection rates come down.
They botched the preparedness and first wave so they now they are doing all they can to avoid a second peak and every day we're still inside helps.

The potential child infection news today will be a massive blow as that will likely have been among the first steps they were looking at, if it increases R by even a small amount it could be enough to tip us over 1 again and back to increasing rates of infection.

[CombatClaret]

There you go Martin and it all looks a bit inconclusive to me at this point in time

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... 9-11980568

That Swiss study is full of holes.

[Grumps]

Ok, we have conflicting science then as a report today says children are as infectious as adults. I’d want the science to be more consistent before letting children near the elderly. We need to make sure we’re not drawing conclusions based on the wrong things. It’s certainly likely that children have caused few infections as in most countries children are either banned from leaving the house (Spain until recently) or not encouraged to do so other than for exercise. Given that you’re supposed to go shopping by yourself most children stay well away from others, although I accept that’s not the case when there’s a single parent. Plus there’s this possibly Covid related new disease they’ve discovered in small numbers, that needs more investigation too.

I thought you meant the Italian lockdown

The children stuff was sky news today

[Paul Waine]

I can tell people aren't sticking to it now.

The roads are certainly busier than when lockdown started. Considerably so.

Busier roads? that's just all the additional online shopping slots and a few more click and collect for groceries...oh, and all the DIYers heading to B&Q (and other stores) for that extra pot of paint and the rest...

[martin_p]

I thought you meant the Italian lockdown

The children stuff was sky news today

And here’s the ‘children are infectious’ story, also from today.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020 ... ng-schools

As I said, it’s all too inconclusive to take any decisive action on yet.

[aggi]

Strictly speaking, it's not more death, but potentially earlier death.

Vaguely related to this, I saw an interesting study somewhere that puts the average years of life lost at something like 14 which puts into context somewhat the suggestion that it mainly those who are old or ill and wouldn't survive much longer.

[NottsClaret]

Vaguely related to this, I saw an interesting study somewhere that puts the average years of life lost at something like 14 which puts into context somewhat the suggestion that it mainly those who are old or ill and wouldn't survive much longer.

Seems unlikely, in Italy the average age of death was 79.5. Life expectancy in the UK is 81.

Mind you, I might think differently about it if I make it to 78.

[dsr]

Vaguely related to this, I saw an interesting study somewhere that puts the average years of life lost at something like 14 which puts into context somewhat the suggestion that it mainly those who are old or ill and wouldn't survive much longer.

It would be if true. How rigorous a study?

The average age of death in Italy is 79 compared with the "normal" average age of 82. Difference 3 years.

[Zlatan]

My employer has sent out an e-mail formulating furlough plans into the middle of July, so I'm going to be home for quite some more time yet.

[Zlatan]

From the Government Update...

R<1 now. Good, its about bloody time. Estimated between 0.6 and 0.8

It would have been there weeks ago with the compulsory use of face masks in public, IMO.

[tiger76]

Bad news 1st

UK death toll reaches 26,711

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologises for "not being part of the trio for so long".

He thanks everyone for "doing such a good job in my absence" and thanks the NHS, both for his care when he was suffering with coronavirus and for his "much happier visit" for the birth of his son yesterday.

The PM says the total number of deaths in the UK has now reached 26,711.

"We grieve for them and with them, but as we grieve we are strengthened in our resolve to defeat the virus," he says.

Now the good news

Johnson: UK is 'past the peak'

Boris Johnson says the UK is "past the peak" of coronavirus.

[aggi]

Seems unlikely, in Italy the average age of death was 79.5. Life expectancy in the UK is 81.

Mind you, I might think differently about it if I make it to 78.

But if you make it to 79.5 you're generally expected to go on a reasonable time longer to cancel out all the people who died young. The average life expectancy of an 80 year old is higher than the average expectancy of a newborn. This table, although American, shows it well https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html Average remaining life of a newborn is 80 years, average remaining life of an 80 year old is 10 years.

I'll try and find the actual study but the above principle was part of it.

[NottsClaret]

But if you make it to 79.5 you're generally expected to go on a reasonable time longer to cancel out all the people who died young. The average life expectancy of an 80 year old is higher than the average expectancy of a newborn. This table, although American, shows it well https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html Average remaining life of a newborn is 80 years, average remaining life of an 80 year old is 10 years.

I'll try and find the actual study but the above principle was part of it.

I feel like we've taken online squabbling to a higher level here. I'll need to read up on this in the morning, too late in the day to work it out now.

[aggi]

I feel like we've taken online squabbling to a higher level here. I'll need to read up on this in the morning, too late in the day to work it out now.

and

It would be if true. How rigorous a study?

The average age of death in Italy is 79 compared with the "normal" average age of 82. Difference 3 years.

This is the study https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

Methodology looks pretty sound from what I can see, although I'm obviously not an expert.

[tiger76]

Hmm! debatable whether the UK did everything right,or at the right time,his last sentence is telling though,could we really see a sea change in government spending,sounds like it.

UK 'did right things at right time'
There's a question about the death toll in the UK and the lessons the government has learned from it.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says international comparisons are "difficult" - and says the UK locked down earlier in its stage of the epidemic than countries like France and Italy.

He says he thinks "broadly speaking" that the UK did "the right things at the right time", although ministers are "learning lessons every day".

Asked whether public services will need to be cut as a result of increasing national debt, Mr Johnson says he thinks the economy will "bounce back strongly".

He says "austerity" is "certainly not part of our approach".

[Lowbankclaret]

From the Government Update...

R<1 now. Good, its about bloody time. Estimated between 0.6 and 0.8

It would have been there weeks ago with the compulsory use of face masks in public, IMO.

Have you bought any yet, I got 50 of amazon, arrived in 8 days.

[Lowbankclaret]

My employer has sent out an e-mail formulating furlough plans into the middle of July, so I'm going to be home for quite some more time yet.

I am furloughed to the end of May.

Based on BA, Boeing, Lufthansa etc.

I don’t expect to be returning at all if I am honest.

Using this furlough as a trial retirement.

[Zlatan]

Have you bought any yet, I got 50 of amazon, arrived in 8 days.

what's the point until they're compulsory? The only reason to wear one is to protect other people and this country is full of selfish tw@ts who cant even watch TV for the good of the country for a few weeks

[Zlatan]

I am furloughed to the end of May.

Based on BA, Boeing, Lufthansa etc.

I don’t expect to be returning at all if I am honest.

Using this furlough as a trial retirement.

I'm still working from home, although there is a shared furlough scheme where we are on 3 week shifts to be furlough - I start mine next week

[Lowbankclaret]

what's the point until they're compulsory? The only reason to wear one is to protect other people and this country is full of selfish tw@ts who cant even watch TV for the good of the country for a few weeks

Because when they are compulsory they will be in short supply.
It’s coming next week, so get your order in now was my point.

[Lowbankclaret]

Plus the testing number rose to 81,000 .

I am going to give them credit for getting it so high. May have missed the target, but I think it’s a great effort.

Testing is the thing that’s going to make a difference.

[taio]

Because when they are compulsory they will be in short supply.
It’s coming next week, so get your order in now was my point.

I doubt they would be compulsory and if they aren't I can't see I'd need to wear one.

[taio]

Plus the testing number rose to 81,000 .

I am going to give them credit for getting it so high. May have missed the target, but I think it’s a great effort.

Testing is the thing that’s going to make a difference.

They haven't yet missed the target. That's yesterday's figure. Expect them to hit the target tomorrow.

[Lowbankclaret]

I'm still working from home, although there is a shared furlough scheme where we are on 3 week shifts to be furlough - I start mine next week

I spoke to my boss last week.
I told him to prioritise some of the young lads with families to be in work.
They need to have a job after this and see a future. It’s those people I feel sorry for.

I have the possibility of retirement. Whilst younger than I wanted, I think I can afford it. Just have had to make some adjustments to my plan.
Like I was going to buy the one and only ever new car, but will just scrap that idea.

[Grumps]

Plus the testing number rose to 81,000 .

I am going to give them credit for getting it so high. May have missed the target, but I think it’s a great effort.

Testing is the thing that’s going to make a difference.

I bet its close when today's figures are added
I also bet that if they are a thousand short they'll be plenty lining up to criticise that they didn't reach the target
It will be very quiet if the target is reached.