Russia Invades

[Chobulous]

Israel only protects Israel.

And your point is?

[Lancasterclaret]

And your point is?

I did wonder what he's on about

Israel has "Iron Dome", which is a ludicrously expensive (but pretty effective) anti-missile system

It would cost more than anyone could afford to put something like that into Ukraine

[Chobulous]

It’s the sort of thing that you get in Saturday night dinner party talk in Islington

Israel is surrounded by implacable enemies, no surprise then that they have an iron resolve to defend themselves.

[Lancasterclaret]

Israel is surrounded by implacable enemies, no surprise then that they have an iron resolve to defend themselves.

Yeah, my normally lefty views are a bit conflicted when it comes to Israel

I certainly wouldn't rely on anyone else to defend me if I was an Israeli

[Chobulous]

A can of worms is Zionism and not really for this thread, but how to you balance the birth of a nation from the coming together of a diaspora that suffered the most horrific genocide in modern times with their terrible oppression of another group of people. As I said not for this thread.

[Lowbankclaret]

Good post from Corky,

Just to add to what he said, again wish I had linked this yesterday.

The was an intercepted phone call, I know these could be fake. But in it the soldier told the story.

The new guys have been thrown into the front line, he was in the second line and there was a third line behind him. He explained his job was shoot any Russian soldiers who tried to retreat from the front line and he knows if he tries to retreat the guys in the third line will shoot him.

Now listening to that, And having seen the battles and maps play out. Ukraine has continually being trying to out flank the Russians, and when they do it just collapses. It does make sense , as once you get the third line to either retreat/run/kill them. They all just run off, until they can be regrouped and reset in the same manner. Crazy way to fight, no wonder moral is bad.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome

For those (I know its wiki, but its a good source for stuff like this) for want to know about "Iron Dome"

[Lancasterclaret]

Good post from Corky,

Just to add to what he said, again wish I had linked this yesterday.

The was an intercepted phone call, I know these could be fake. But in it the soldier told the story.

The new guys have been thrown into the front line, he was in the second line and there was a third line behind him. He explained his job was shoot any Russian soldiers who tried to retreat from the front line and he knows if he tries to retreat the guys in the third line will shoot him.

Now listening to that, And having seen the battles and maps play out. Ukraine has continually being trying to out flank the Russians, and when they do it just collapses. It does make sense , as once you get the third line to either retreat/run/kill them. They all just run off, until they can be regrouped and reset in the same manner. Crazy way to fight, no wonder moral is bad.

I read that as well, but it was criminal conscripts in the first line, conscripts in the second line, and regulars in the third line

It sounds far too much like what the Soviets did in WWII to be true, and if this was true, then you'd have mass desertion

Sadly I don't think its true

[Lowbankclaret]

Not exactly on thread but this is the EU response to the gas shortage. It’s good to know the info. Well worth a listen.
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... Oa-EG9kErg

[Hipper]

Russia begins evacuation from Kherson:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63311744

[Lancasterclaret]

Russia begins evacuation from Kherson:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63311744

Just going to post this

I mean, its screams "Get out while you still can" and that will almost certainly result in the Russian army units on the wrong side of the Dnipro wondering whether they will get left behind

Put it one way, if I was a conscript or in the DNA or LNA units, I'd be very concerned that I'd be left behind

[IanMcL]

And your point is?

It was in answer to the Q above.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

I see a couple of journos are now saying it's highly likely Putin will use nukes in Ukraine...

[Boss Hogg]

It’s almost like a teenager who’s found an arsenal of weapons whose only experience is playing computer war games. Now it’s not going his way toys are being thrown out the pram. Using Nuclear will not result in a good outcome for either side or one of the leaders and the casualty rate for both in the short and long term will be horrific. Why sign up for radiation exposure so you can try and claim some contaminated land that you don’t need and some people that hate you.

[claret2018]

I see a couple of journos are now saying it's highly likely Putin will use nukes in Ukraine...

Just one journalist that I can see, and not a reliable one.

[Lancasterclaret]

It’s almost like a teenager who’s found an arsenal of weapons whose only experience is playing computer war games. Now it’s not going his way toys are being thrown out the pram. Using Nuclear will not result in a good outcome for either side or one of the leaders and the casualty rate for both in the short and long term will be horrific. Why sign up for radiation exposure so you can try and claim some contaminated land that you don’t need and some people that hate you.

I can't find it, but I was reading a former CIA Russian specialist comment about this

Essentially, Putin might well use them, but only if he thinks he can still survive after using it

The analysist was very clear that he thinks that the West have already made it very clear to him what the consequences would be for him and that as long as they maintain that level of pressure, then he won't risk it

He also stated that he thinks that Russia and Putin can survive the loss of Donestk and Luhansk, but not Crimea

It does rather suggest that any peace deal would have to involve some recognition of Russian occupation of Crimea, which I'm not sure would sent the correct message to Russia

[Lancasterclaret]

Russia declares martial law in the four annexed provinces and substantial changes to law in most of Southern and Western Russia

As always, what he says on TV and what he's actually doing are a lot harsher in practice

https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/ ... 4896167937

Pretty much an economic mobilisation as well

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1582690427127595009

Russia removing memorials to the victims of the Holodomor in Ukraine during the 30s

Erasing monuments won't change what happened lads

[Vegas Claret]

I can't find it, but I was reading a former CIA Russian specialist comment about this

Essentially, Putin might well use them, but only if he thinks he can still survive after using it

The analysist was very clear that he thinks that the West have already made it very clear to him what the consequences would be for him and that as long as they maintain that level of pressure, then he won't risk it

He also stated that he thinks that Russia and Putin can survive the loss of Donestk and Luhansk, but not Crimea

It does rather suggest that any peace deal would have to involve some recognition of Russian occupation of Crimea, which I'm not sure would sent the correct message to Russia

I think Zelensky has been pretty forthright in his view that Ukraine will never agree to Crimea

[Dark Cloud]

Strikes me that most people who live in Kherson believe they are Ukrainian, so really don't want to move out and into Russia or even "pseudo" Russia. The problem is if they stay in the city they'll get pummelled in the cross fire when (if) the fighting starts. It's a very tough one I guess, but the way the Russians are behaving they're making it very clear they think the fight for Kherson is coming, is coming soon and that they don't expect to hold the city.

[Colburn_Claret]

I think Zelensky has been pretty forthright in his view that Ukraine will never agree to Crimea

And he shouldn't.

There are so many ways that this could go, going forward. The only way to prevent this from happening again, is for Putin to gain nothing from this war. The lives lost, on either side, is irrelevant to him, all that matters is justifying it, by gaining land. He has to lose, if only to prevent a repeat.

[Lancasterclaret]

I think Zelensky has been pretty forthright in his view that Ukraine will never agree to Crimea

Yeah

Will be an issue that I feel

Plus you wouldn't trust the Russians at all unfortunately

But there would be some scope for a settlement if they could come to some agreement over Crimea

[NewClaret]

Yeah

Will be an issue that I feel

Plus you wouldn't trust the Russians at all unfortunately

But there would be some scope for a settlement if they could come to some agreement over Crimea

I’m pretty sure that if Putin offered to end the war today and give back all but Crimea, Zelensky would reluctantly agree to it to end the suffering. But Putin won’t make offers, so the war will continue & by the time Putin twigs he’s not going to win, Ukraine will have reclaimed all but Crimea and Putin will have nothing left to bargain with.

In some respects I hope they invade Crimea first and put Russia straight on the back foot.

[Lancasterclaret]

I’m pretty sure that if Putin offered to end the war today and give back all but Crimea, Zelensky would reluctantly agree to it to end the suffering. But Putin won’t make offers, so the war will continue & by the time Putin twigs he’s not going to win, Ukraine will have reclaimed all but Crimea and Putin will have nothing left to bargain with.

In some respects I hope they invade Crimea first and put Russia straight on the back foot.

I'm pretty sure that Ukraine won't be able to retake Crimea sadly

[Elbarad]

I'm pretty sure that Ukraine won't be able to retake Crimea sadly

I think it depends on how much territory the Russians give up after they leave Kherson. If they somehow can be pushed so that the Himars are in range of the Kerch bridge I don't know how Russia KEEPS Crimea. If they can reach the bridge, they can reach any ports in Crimea, how would they supply any of their force there or reinforce them?

Maybe me being optimistic, but it's not out of the imagination.

[Lancasterclaret]

I think it depends on how much territory the Russians give up after they leave Kherson. If they somehow can be pushed so that the Himars are in range of the Kerch bridge I don't know how Russia KEEPS Crimea. If they can reach the bridge, they can reach any ports in Crimea, how would they supply any of their force there or reinforce them?

Maybe me being optimistic, but it's not out of the imagination.

Its more to do with the sheer lack of access to the Crimea from mainland Ukraine, most of which is a huge salt marsh

Russian artillery can completely dominate the area, and Russia controls the sea

HIMARS and stuff could inflict heavy casualties on the Russians absolutely no doubt, but the Ukrainian casualties would be horrendous as well

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/stat ... 5304729601

Russian war correspondent in Kherson

Main take aways

- telling everyone that Russia will lose battles
- usual stuff about potential war crimes (chemical weapons and flooding, which could be well be used by Russia, especially the flooding)
- telling everyone that Russian supply situation is critical
- telling everyone that only Ukraine attacks civilian infrastructure

I'd say that Russia will abandon Kherson, and blow the dam at Nerson Kharkova (spelling?)

But its stark how defeatist he is being, so clearly the Russian population are being primed for some very bad news

[jos]

I see a couple of journos are now saying it's highly likely Putin will use nukes in Ukraine...

From a Russian-speaking CIA operations officer who spent much of his career pursuing and countering Russian intelligence officers of Putin’s era,

Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was.

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addr ... at-he-was/

[Elbarad]

Its more to do with the sheer lack of access to the Crimea from mainland Ukraine, most of which is a huge salt marsh

Russian artillery can completely dominate the area, and Russia controls the sea

HIMARS and stuff could inflict heavy casualties on the Russians absolutely no doubt, but the Ukrainian casualties would be horrendous as well

Well, we'll see I hope. Because that'll mean the Ukrainians have moved the Russians out of the entirety of Kherson district to even contemplate attempting that. I actually agree with every reason you gave for your doubts, I just think they'd run out of food and munitions if they we able to cut the bridge fully, and rain shells on any port in Crimea. And they would run out of supply sooner rather then later. If they were able to push the Russians into Crimea, there'd be something like 50k troops there who'd need supply. That's a lot of hungry mouths.

The Russians have already moved a lot of their fleet away from the western ports of Crimea. Of course they could bring them back, but that puts them in danger.

[Colburn_Claret]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/stat ... 5304729601

Russian war correspondent in Kherson

Main take aways

- telling everyone that Russia will lose battles
- usual stuff about potential war crimes (chemical weapons and flooding, which could be well be used by Russia, especially the flooding)
- telling everyone that Russian supply situation is critical
- telling everyone that only Ukraine attacks civilian infrastructure

I'd say that Russia will abandon Kherson, and blow the dam at Nerson Kharkova (spelling?)

But its stark how defeatist he is being, so clearly the Russian population are being primed for some very bad news

I read the other day, that Crimea has no natural water supply. No springs or rivers run through the Crimea. It is dependent on the Dneiper river for supplying water to the whole area. If that's true blowing the dam would hurt Crimea much more than Ukraine.
Taking Crimea will be very difficult, but not out of the question. Russian conventional forces will take years, just to get back to where it was 8 months ago. Meanwhile Ukraine gets more and more sophisticated hardware. The training and the logistics it needs to maintain a constant pressure on the front line, wherever it is.
Big push, consolidate, reinforce, resupply, big push repeat, and every big push comes at massive cost to Russian lives, Russian morale, and Russian ability to resist the next big push.
It's a war of attrition that Russia cannot win, the only question is how far will Putin go to try to save face.

[Belgianclaret]

Looks to be heading for a stalemate down south, which could last for the winter period

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/us-hits-netwo ... 53055.html
America cracking down on sanction evasion.

[Hipper]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/stat ... 5304729601

Russian war correspondent in Kherson

Main take aways

- telling everyone that Russia will lose battles
- usual stuff about potential war crimes (chemical weapons and flooding, which could be well be used by Russia, especially the flooding)
- telling everyone that Russian supply situation is critical
- telling everyone that only Ukraine attacks civilian infrastructure

I'd say that Russia will abandon Kherson, and blow the dam at Nerson Kharkova (spelling?)

But its stark how defeatist he is being, so clearly the Russian population are being primed for some very bad news

Pretty much what ISW is suggesting:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... october-19

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583053877498499074

Crikey!

[bfcjg]

And the nomination for support actors are
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/beleaguered-r ... 42494.html

[JarrowClaret]

https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583053877498499074

Crikey!

Not really a major concern as such I tend to believe the Russians in that it was a technical malfunction, mainly because of the wording used by Ben Wallace. If it was released deliberately I suspect that we would be discussing a rivet joint being **** down not sure it has the capabilities to avoid a missile launch with its role. Also it highlights again the state of the Russian equipment if we didn’t already know.

[Lancasterclaret]

Not really a major concern as such I tend to believe the Russians in that it was a technical malfunction, mainly because of the wording used by Ben Wallace. If it was released deliberately I suspect that we would be discussing a rivet joint being **** down not sure it has the capabilities to avoid a missile launch with its role. Also it highlights again the state of the Russian equipment if we didn’t already know.

Am surprised that they don't have NATO fighter escorts with them all the same

[Lowbankclaret]

Am surprised that they don't have NATO fighter escorts with them all the same

Fighters cannot stay in the air long enough to escort a plane that can fly for as long as a rivet joint aircraft.
I am sure you knew that.
You would need re fuellers with them. All getting very costly if you do that.

[Corky]

Heard about the Typhoon escort yesterday and wondered why it was happening. Now we know. Shame we still dont have the Nimrod MR2 as they carried a couple of air to air missiles.

[JarrowClaret]

Fighters cannot stay in the air long enough to escort a plane that can fly for as long as a rivet joint aircraft.
I am sure you knew that.
You would need re fuellers with them. All getting very costly if you do that.

They would probably need a refueller for the mission anyway but to have CAP up would be an escalation without obvious reason. If you look at recent Rivet joint missions that have been escorted by 2 Typhoons though.

[Vegas Claret]

doesn't require an escort, if Russia shot the Rivet down we would already be in WW3, no way Putin does that

[Lowbankclaret]

Oops , don’t mention Iranian drones.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... twdjYncIRg

[Lancasterclaret]

Fighters cannot stay in the air long enough to escort a plane that can fly for as long as a rivet joint aircraft.
I am sure you knew that.
You would need re fuellers with them. All getting very costly if you do that.

Well, you don't leave billion dollar elint aircraft unescorted as well

Apparently they now fly with escorts, so all is good!

[Lowbankclaret]

Well, you don't leave billion dollar elint aircraft unescorted as well

Apparently they now fly with escorts, so all is good!

Yes I read that ,

More chances for accidents.

[Hipper]

https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583053877498499074

Crikey!

Not 'at' a Rivet as said in your link. "Mr Wallace said that during an "interaction" one of the SU-27 aircraft "released a missile in the vicinity of the RAF Rivet Joint beyond visual range".


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63327999

And what's the 'civilian aircraft' mentioned in your link?

[Hipper]

Oops , don’t mention Iranian drones.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... twdjYncIRg

Like the little film/GIF under the story.

[Lowbankclaret]

I feel sorry for these ladies who husbands and sons have gone missing.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/sta ... QXRC4OE5DQ

[elwaclaret]

ELINT NEWS RETWEET (and comment) about:
JUST IN: White House NSC coordinator John Kirby says Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea assisting Russian pilots who bombarded Kyiv with Iranian drones on Monday.

"Iran is now directly engaged on the ground," Kirby says.

https://twitter.com/arawnsley/status/15 ... ibAOxrFlTg

[Vegas Claret]

ELINT NEWS RETWEET (and comment) about:
JUST IN: White House NSC coordinator John Kirby says Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea assisting Russian pilots who bombarded Kyiv with Iranian drones on Monday.

"Iran is now directly engaged on the ground," Kirby says.

https://twitter.com/arawnsley/status/15 ... ibAOxrFlTg

America's response will be interesting

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-state ... 38188.html
Interesting that there is more main stream criticism .