Covid-19

[Taffy on the wing]

Hi martin, I notice you are interested in methods of counting tests. But, what exactly are you aiming to count? The number of tests arranged on a particular day? The number of test swabs issued on a particular day? The number of test samples collected on that day? The number of swabs received at the labs? The number of swabs tested and results collated on that day? The results distributed to (a) the person tested and (b) their GP and other medical people who need to know and (c) employer, whether NHS, care home, other essential worker employer?

Does it matter that some people need to be tested twice? Does it make a difference if the person is tested once on Monday and a second time on Tuesday? Is that one person tested on Monday and one person tested on Tuesday? So, what is the number that matters if both tests were on the Monday?

It seems to me, once you understand what you are trying to measure that you count the way the gov't is counting, including swabs issued for home testing on the day they are posted out.

Yes, I'm sure there will be follow up on tests issued but not received back. Maybe some of these ordered the tests because a member of the household "had symptoms." Maybe the person got tested and was confirmed not to have covid-19, so, should the others, with no symptoms still do the test - and clog up a very busy system?

Nice job of twisting yourself into a Pretzel.......give yourself a pat on the back!

[tiger76]

It was definitely announced as all over 70's ought to isolate. I remember listening to the conference whilst driving home from work just before we closed.

The government's messaging has been, at best, confused and unclear throughout this.

I can't speak for Westminster,but the advice from the Scottish Government is similar to my knowledge,and they're also having issues in getting the message across.

Current letter on shielding 'can be confusing'

Anita Stratton from Global asks if there are plans for updated advice to those in the shielded category in Scotland and points out that the letters people are receiving are still signed off by former chief medical officer Catherine Calderwood, who resigned a month ago.

"Individuals may be added to the list on the clinical advice of their GP," says Health Secretary Jeane Freeman, who concedes the way the current letter is framed "can be confusing".

Professor Jason Leitch refers back to his earlier clarification, saying it should be a 12-week period of isolation from 26 March.

He says people on the list will receive advice close to the end of that period and he adds that Dr Gregor Smith, the interim chief medical officer, will be signing any new letters sent out.

"There is hope but the gains are fragile," says Scotland's national clinical director Jason Leitch as he reminds us of the lockdown guidelines.

If you have symptoms - a cough or a fever - you should be staying home for seven days
If you are in a household with someone with symptoms, you should remain at home for 14 days
If your symptoms worsen, you should call 111
Those on the shielded list (around 170,000 in Scotland) will have had letters telling them to stay at home from 26 March for 12 weeks
If you think you should be on the list, contact your GP
Those in the 'increased risk' category - the over-70s, get the flu vaccination for health reasons & pregnant women (around 1.6m people in Scotland) - can leave the house for essential reasons, but it would be safer if someone else did your shopping, picked up prescriptions etc.
If you cannot get that support there is a hotline 0800 111 4000
Then there is everybody else, who should only be leaving home for the four reasons spelled out over and over again - and be physically distancing when doing so.

[Grumps]

It was definitely announced as all over 70's ought to isolate. I remember listening to the conference whilst driving home from work just before we closed.

The government's messaging has been, at best, confused and unclear throughout this.

It was also announced that supermarkets would open specific hours fot the over 70s...i wonder when it all changed

[Paul Waine]

Just to clarify again, my "remedy" is to give the old people a freedom of choice, if you wish to go outside do so by all means but be aware you are potentially exposing yourself to the virus or equally if you wish to remain indoors where you feel safer do so by all means, I don't see the sense encouraging old people outside if the prospect frightens them or unsettles them just so there could have some exercise or socialise or obtain some vitamin D, what's beneficial is peace of mind & to feel safe & not pressured, I'm championing freedom of choice not just shoving old people outside when we believe it will benefit them but in truth it scares the s**t out of them, I hope I've cleared any misunderstandings up.

Hi Jakub, can I ask how old you are? However old you are today, you will in the years ahead you will get older and reach your 60s, 70s and 80s. When you get there you will understand that 60s and 70s and 80s are perfectly capable to make their own decisions. None of them will need you or anyone "to give the old people a (sic) freedom of choice." The older generations (note plural, not a single "old generation") will be able to make their own decisions. Some may have health problems, some may be frightened of the prospect of contracting covid-19 - though, it appears professional footballers like Aguerro also express this fear. Many will not be "frightened," they will already know that exercise and vitamin D is their best defence. They may have kept good health and got to their advanced age because they have all the "good habits" that give them good health. They will certainly have retained their ability to make their own decisions. They may even have the wisdom to pass on some of their learnings to the younger generations. Please let us know when you are ready to be advised by "the old people."

[Paul Waine]

Nice job of twisting yourself into a Pretzel.......give yourself a pat on the back!

Pretzels are a symbol of love, Taffy. Thank you.

[claretandy]

Thread...

[Paul Waine]

Thread...

What's the problem in Germany? Capacity for 800,000 tests per week (114,286 per day), but only performed 436,137 last week - average 62,305 per day? That's only 55% of capacity.

And 436,137 is the highest weekly testing Germany has carried out.

[claretonthecoast1882]

What's the problem in Germany? Capacity for 800,000 tests per week (114,286 per day), but only performed 436,137 last week - average 62,305 per day? That's only 55% of capacity.

And 436,137 is the highest weekly testing Germany has carried out.

Read something that stated Scotlands target was 10,000 tests a day but are only actually doing between 1 and 2,000 tests a day. I wrongly thought it was just England not reaching their target with the way the usuals have been carrying on with their point scoring.

[Swizzlestick]

Read something that stated Scotlands target was 10,000 tests a day but are only actually doing between 1 and 2,000 tests a day. I wrongly thought it was just England not reaching their target with the way the usuals have been carrying on with their point scoring.

Where did you read that?

[tiger76]

Where did you read that?

Scottish Government's own website has all the latest stats.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... scotland/

There was less than 2,000 tests yesterday,now that could be low due to it being a weekend,but it's a long way from the amount Nicola Sturgeon promised,eventually the target is to achieve 10,000 tests a day.

Even looking back over the last week the SG is a long way off their stated intention.Although the reports are conflicting i have to say.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/184 ... arget-53/

https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/scotland-testing/

If you want to compare England/Scotland this article should provide context

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-52471298

[Spijed]

What's the problem in Germany? Capacity for 800,000 tests per week (114,286 per day), but only performed 436,137 last week - average 62,305 per day? That's only 55% of capacity.

And 436,137 is the highest weekly testing Germany has carried out.

Germany has a fraction of our deaths and all the government and its supporters are worried about is how many more tests we have conducted than them.

Well done!

[android]

Our "Success"

As not all clarets will be familiar with Z scores, could you explain your understanding of the graph you posted?

[AndrewJB]

Countries around the world are developing contact tracing apps. In the U.K. we’re going against science once again, and building one that the government can use to watch us, and gather data on where we go and who we speak with.

https://www.businessinsider.nl/cybersec ... =true&r=US

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -18-months

[Grumps]

Countries around the world are developing contact tracing apps. In the U.K. we’re going against science once again, and building one that the government can use to watch us, and gather data on where we go and who we speak with.

https://www.businessinsider.nl/cybersec ... =true&r=US

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -18-months

Have the government ever done anything right in your eyes.
I thought a tracing app would need to know where you go, but maybe that's me just being simple.

[Devils_Advocate]

Thread...

There's been two issues at play where the govt has come under fire.

The first was around the test volumes and our ability to increase it which up until the vast improvements over the last few weeks was a cause for concern.

If we are now happy to compare with Germany lets do so

Tests per week

22/3: UK = 40k, Germany = 350k
29/3: UK = 50k, Germany = 360k
5/4: UK = 70k, Germany = 400k
12/4: UK = 85k, Germany = 400k
19/4: UK = 180k, Germany = 350k
26/4: UK = 270k, Germany = 470k

The govt has made some real progress and we are getting to a good position but the second issue that the criticism has been about these last few days is more about the govts honesty and integrity.

Yet again there is misinformation, confusion and spin and it just really undermines the trust and support a lot of people have for the govt.

If they would have not treated the 30th April like a campaign push / PR exercise and been honest about missing a really challenging target but been proud to have achieved the increase in volume they actually delivered then they would have had the majority of people like me on their side

Andy posted a tweet from Steve Baker which was essentially showing off at how Cummings can use data and targets to make the govt look good and this is the problem. Stop p*ssing around trying to look and sound good and just get on with doing actual real good stuff and be honest about it

The German test volumes compared to ours as of this week shows we are in a good position but unfortunately this is not the issue anymore because of the govts own actions

[tiger76]

All i can say is it must have a bloody good kebab.

Arrests after UK lockdown parties and '17-mile kebab run'

UK police have arrested 13 people and fined 11 others after raiding two lockdown parties in Liverpool.

A dozen people were arrested on suspicion of burglary at a property in Duke Street where a party was being held at 01:20 BST on Sunday.

Separately, on Saturday, people travelled up to 20 miles from Greater Manchester for a party in Wavertree.

Twins were also stopped in Rochdale, Greater Manchester, on Saturday night after allegedly driving 17 miles to buy a kebab.

Police impounded their VW car for "serious vehicle defects". The driver had no insurance and the pair had travelled from Huddersfield, West Yorkshire to Rochdale, officers said.

[tiger76]

There's been two issues at play where the govt has come under fire.

The first was around the test volumes and our ability to increase it which up until the vast improvements over the last few weeks was a cause for concern.

If we are now happy to compare with Germany lets do so

Tests per week

22/3: UK = 40k, Germany = 350k
29/3: UK = 50k, Germany = 360k
5/4: UK = 70k, Germany = 400k
12/4: UK = 85k, Germany = 400k
19/4: UK = 180k, Germany = 350k
26/4: UK = 270k, Germany = 470k

The govt has made some real progress and we are getting to a good position but the second issue that the criticism has been about these last few days is more about the govts honesty and integrity.

Yet again there is misinformation, confusion and spin and it just really undermines the trust and support a lot of people have for the govt.

If they would have not treated the 30th April like a campaign push / PR exercise and been honest about missing a really challenging target but been proud to have achieved the increase in volume they actually delivered then they would have had the majority of people like me on their side

Andy posted a tweet from Steve Baker which was essentially showing off at how Cummings can use data and targets to make the govt look good and this is the problem. Stop p*ssing around trying to look and sound good and just get on with doing actual real good stuff and be honest about it

The German test volumes compared to ours as of this week shows we are in a good position but unfortunately this is not the issue anymore because of the govts own actions

Good post DA,the government need to realise we're not in a GE campaign anymore,stop with the BS and just give us the info,those numbers show that testing has more than tripled in a fortnight,and yet because of the mythical 100k per day promised by Hancock,and all the furore over whether this was reached or not,all the progress has been forgotten,testing alone won't solve this crisis,but widespread testing,along with other measures,such as tracking & tracing,will go a long way to allowing the current lockdown to be slowly eased.

[Holtyclaret]

Countries around the world are developing contact tracing apps. In the U.K. we’re going against science once again, and building one that the government can use to watch us, and gather data on where we go and who we speak with.

https://www.businessinsider.nl/cybersec ... =true&r=US

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -18-months

‘Going against science once again’ by producing a brand new app to aid contact tracing. The science shows the benefits of this once the infection rate decreases sufficiently.

As for the rest of your Krank drivel, do you understand what contact tracing involves and why it’s done?

[martin_p]

‘Going against science once again’ by producing a brand new app to aid contact tracing. The science shows the benefits of this once the infection rate decreases sufficiently.

As for the rest of your Krank drivel, do you understand what contact tracing involves and why it’s done?

People probably need to read the story rather than making random comments. No one is saying that a tracing app is a bad idea, but security experts are pointing out that the way the UK is developing one is taking and storing all the info centrally whereas it’s possible to leave the info on the phone and let the phone do the processing require to look at which other phones it has been near and therefore who needs contacting. The government is taking and storing data it doesn’t need to in order to develop a tracing app and that is what the security experts are flagging.

[Zlatan]

People probably need to read the story rather than making random comments. No one is saying that a tracing app is a bad idea, but security experts are pointing out that the way the UK is developing one is taking and storing all the info centrally whereas it’s possible to leave the info on the phone and let the phone do the processing require to look at which other phones it has been near and therefore who needs contacting. The government is taking and storing data it doesn’t need to in order to develop a tracing app and that is what the security experts are flagging.

Exactly, which is against GDPR in my eyes

[Grumps]

People probably need to read the story rather than making random comments. No one is saying that a tracing app is a bad idea, but security experts are pointing out that the way the UK is developing one is taking and storing all the info centrally whereas it’s possible to leave the info on the phone and let the phone do the processing require to look at which other phones it has been near and therefore who needs contacting. The government is taking and storing data it doesn’t need to in order to develop a tracing app and that is what the security experts are flagging.

People have a choice, don't trust it, don't download it.

[AndrewJB]

Have the government ever done anything right in your eyes.
I thought a tracing app would need to know where you go, but maybe that's me just being simple.

Have a look at the first link. It’s consistent with what has been written about Cummings, and how he used big data to swing the referendum. If they have no intention to misuse our data, then why not ensure it remains anonymous?

I’m profoundly disappointed with the government, but not surprised because I saw how utterly useless Johnson was as mayor of London. I’d love to be proven wrong. I don’t wish this steaming pile on anyone - but it’s what our flawed system has thrown up. Feel free to search for scraps of positivity through the train wreck, but my standards are higher and I have too much self respect than to do that.

[martin_p]

People have a choice, don't trust it, don't download it.

And if more than 40% of the population don’t use it it won’t do the job it’s supposed to. Why erode trust when you need 60% of the population to use it? Madness!

[Grumps]

And if more than 40% of the population don’t use it it won’t do the job it’s supposed to. Why erode trust when you need 60% of the population to use it? Madness!

I think you'll find those who mistrust it are in the very small minority. If you're that suspicious you'd never download any app, or use a mobile phone
My guess is there will be a massive uptake

[martin_p]

I think you'll find those who mistrust it are in the very small minority. If you're that suspicious you'd never download any app, or use a mobile phone
My guess is there will be a massive uptake

Only around 80% of the adult population own smartphones so it will only takes one in four of those people to not bother (and not bother will be the biggest reason for lack of take up) bolstered by those valuing their privacy for the app to be less than effective. Certainly makes me think twice and I’ll be doing my own reading up before deciding on whether to install.

[aggi]

Have the government ever done anything right in your eyes.
I thought a tracing app would need to know where you go, but maybe that's me just being simple.

The app needs to know where you go. The controversy is whether the app needs to send that data back to a government database for processing.

Other countries (Germany and Italy for instance) are doing this on the phone to maintain indivdual control. The UK is sending the data back to a database so further analysis can be carried out. They're not the only country proposing this, France are looking at doing the same. There are some benefits in that deeper analysis can be carried out.

Obviously the issue here is trust and "mission creep". A lot of people involved with the government, and this app, currently were involved with Vote Leave and Cambridge Analytica and its various offshoots.

For an app that you need to be universally adapted then you need to consider whether the benefits of that additional analysis offsets the impact of it not being installed due to lack of trust.

Personally I will think long and hard about whether to install it when it comes out.

[Grumps]

Only around 80% of the adult population own smartphones so it will only takes one in four of those people to not bother (and not bother will be the biggest reason for lack of take up) bolstered by those valuing their privacy for the app to be less than effective. Certainly makes me think twice and I’ll be doing my own reading up before deciding on whether to install.

Take a look at permissions you give to WhatsApp

Every phone call you make is traceable

Doesn't stop the vast majority from using both

[Grumps]

The app needs to know where you go. The controversy is whether the app needs to send that data back to a government database for processing.

Other countries (Germany and Italy for instance) are doing this on the phone to maintain indivdual control. The UK is sending the data back to a database so further analysis can be carried out. They're not the only country proposing this, France are looking at doing the same. There are some benefits in that deeper analysis can be carried out.

Obviously the issue here is trust and "mission creep". A lot of people involved with the government, and this app, currently were involved with Vote Leave and Cambridge Analytica and its various offshoots.

For an app that you need to be universally adapted then you need to consider whether the benefits of that additional analysis offsets the impact of it not being installed due to lack of trust.

Personally I will think long and hard about whether to install it when it comes out.

Your choice...

[aggi]

Your choice...

It is. But there is a bigger picture, without a high takeup the app is pretty useless.

If the implementation method that has been chosen causes people to not install the app then that is an issue.

[martin_p]

Take a look at permissions you give to WhatsApp

Every phone call you make is traceable

Doesn't stop the vast majority from using both

WhatsApp don’t need 60% of the population to use their app for it to be effective.

[Grumps]

WhatsApp don’t need 60% of the population to use their app for it to be effective.

But it's the biggest download app... One the government used to show numbers required for the new app, which is less than WhatsApp...

[RingoMcCartney]

Have a look at the first link. It’s consistent with what has been written about Cummings, and how he used big data to swing the referendum. If they have no intention to misuse our data, then why not ensure it remains anonymous?

I’m profoundly disappointed with the government, but not surprised because I saw how utterly useless Johnson was as mayor of London. I’d love to be proven wrong. I don’t wish this steaming pile on anyone - but it’s what our flawed system has thrown up. Feel free to search for scraps of positivity through the train wreck, but my standards are higher and I have too much self respect than to do that.

The purpose of the lockdown was to prevent the scenes witnessed in Italy. Where their health service was unable to cope. Our health service has not , thankfully, had to endure such an overwhelming impact and the curve has been flattened. Governments mission? Accomplished.

To build a build around 10000 patient Nightingale hospitals out of bloody thin air in a matter of days.

To guarantee no evictions for those renting.

To defer MOTs

To defer business rates for struggling businesses.

Mortgage and loan holidays for borrowers.

To back the majority of ALL workers wages upto 80% /£2500 ( unprecedented and according to an expert would normally take years to organise)

Push back tax demands for business/ individuals

Ordering 10s of thousands of new ventilators to such an extent they've turned them away now.

Plus many other moves to help individuals and the economy in a matter of days . Is nothing short of a minor miracle !

And yet, for the the tiny rump of whining, sniping band of vociferous agenda driven lefties , nothing is ever going to be good enough.

But it hasn't stopped them still trying to not let a good crisis go to waste.

By the way , Johnson was TWICE elected mayor of London. At the next general election, he'll be elected for a 2nd time to be Prime Minister too. And once again, bubble dwellers of metropolitan London borough of Ivory Towers, will be left , scratching their heads in bewilderment

[Billy Balfour]

I bet this app doesn't reach 60% of smartphones owners.

[Grumps]

It is. But there is a bigger picture, without a high takeup the app is pretty useless.

If the implementation method that has been chosen causes people to not install the app then that is an issue.

Enough will download it... Helping stop the virus out weighs the risk of somebody wanting to see something about you, you don't want them to see, in normal people's eye anyway

[martin_p]

The purpose of the lockdown was to prevent the scenes witnessed in Italy. Where their health service was unable to cope. Our health service has not , thankfully, had to endure such an overwhelming impact and the curve has been flattened. Governments mission? Accomplished.

To build a build around 10000 patient Nightingale hospitals out of bloody thin air in a matter of days.

To guarantee no evictions for those renting.

To defer MOTs

To defer business rates for struggling businesses.

Mortgage and loan holidays for borrowers.

To back the majority of ALL workers wages upto 80% /£2500 ( unprecedented and according to an expert would normally take years to organise)

Push back tax demands for business/ individuals

Ordering 10s of thousands of new ventilators to such an extent they've turned them away now.

Plus many other moves to help individuals and the economy in a matter of days . Is nothing short of a minor miracle !

And yet, for the the tiny rump of whining, sniping band of vociferous agenda driven lefties , nothing is ever going to be good enough.

But it hasn't stopped them still trying to not let a good crisis go to waste.

By the way , Johnson was TWICE elected mayor of London. At the next general election, he'll be elected for a 2nd time to be Prime Minister too. And once again, bubble dwellers of metropolitan London borough of Ivory Towers, will be left , scratching their heads in bewilderment

Will you be registering on the government tracing app with multiple usernames Wrongo?

[Grumps]

I bet this app doesn't reach 60% of smartphones owners.

Does it need to?

[Billy Balfour]

Martin, please don't quote him. You have now made my scroll wheel cry.

[Billy Balfour]

Does it need to?

Oh dear. Have you been following this?

[Zlatan]

The problem is that google and Apple have worked together to develop what they think is needed for contact tracing and have an app already developed and good to go, this app doesn’t collate the data centrally, and for this reason the government have chosen to develop their own app - the irony is that our government doesn’t trust google and Apple to not collate the data for themselves!

[Spijed]

The purpose of the lockdown was to prevent the scenes witnessed in Italy. Where their health service was unable to cope. Our health service has not , thankfully, had to endure such an overwhelming impact and the curve has been flattened. Governments mission? Accomplished.

About to overtake Italy in the number of deaths - mission accomplished?

As I said, facts and figures mean far more to you than the number of deaths, don't they?

[Billy Balfour]

I don't think the app will do its job, even if there is adequate take up. Govt IT projects are notorious for promising mountains while delivery molehills.

[RingoMcCartney]

Will you be registering on the government tracing app with multiple usernames Wrongo?

Playing the man ,not the ball. With paranoia.

That's novel.







(the messageboard lefties mantra - "to have a different opinion to us would be so ridiculous it has to be the same person!"Then there's an election/referendum! Temporarily the penny drops)

[RingoMcCartney]

About to overtake Italy in the number of deaths - mission accomplished?

As I said, facts and figures mean far more to you than the number of deaths, don't they?

Talking about having facts and figures-

Name one person, just one person in the whole world, in any country you like , that right now, has all the available facts at their disposal, regarding the 2020 Covid 19 global pandemic. Who can therefore, draw objective conclusions and assessments and be in a strong position to name and shame who got it right and who got it wrong.

Just one.

[TVC15]

How’s the UK avoiding the tragic situation in Italy working out for the country then ?

[martin_p]

Playing the man ,not the ball. With paranoia.

That's novel.







(the messageboard lefties mantra - "to have a different opinion to us would be so ridiculous it has to be the same person!"Then there's an election/referendum! Temporarily the penny drops)

Suggest you get yourself a sense of humour.

[martin_p]

Talking about having facts and figures-

Name one person, just one person in the whole world, in any country you like , that right now, has all the available facts at their disposal, regarding the 2020 Covid 19 global pandemic. Who can therefore, draw objective conclusions and assessments and be in a strong position to name and shame who got it right and who got it wrong.

Just one.

You keep asking this. There’ll be plenty that have all the available facts, after all if the facts are available why wouldn’t the experts have them. I’d suggest Chris Whitty probably has all the available facts as will a number of the other scientists who specialise in this sort of thing.

[Grumps]

Oh dear. Have you been following this?

Yep, unlike you perhaps, it's easy to find reports that vary from 40% to 80% and everything in between

[RingoMcCartney]

Suggest you get yourself a sense of humour.

Got one. I've been laughing after pretty much every exercise of democracy in this country for the last 10 years!

[RingoMcCartney]

You keep asking this. There’ll be plenty that have all the available facts, after all if the facts are available why wouldn’t the experts have them. I’d suggest Chris Whitty probably has all the available facts as will a number of the other scientists who specialise in this sort of thing.

Just for starters, when you cant resist comparing countries while we're slap bang in the middle of this unprecedented global pandemic -


Population density within London city limits averages an estimated 7,200 inhabitants per square mile







The population density in Sweden is 64 people per square mile



Have a ponder on that......

[Grumps]

I wonder how many of the conspiracy theorists on here have recently sent a text message?

The government can find out more about you from that, than any NHS tracing app can do.