Corbyn is now only five points behind.

[dermotdermot]

Oooops! Can the unthinkable actually happen?

[fatboy47]

Oooops! Can the unthinkable actually happen?

doubtful.....usually just media manipulation to scare the last few cloth cap tories out from under their stones.

[Lancasterclaret]

He is doing remarkably well and even though I don't support him, anything that stops a Tory landslide is great

[kentonclaret]

Bearing in mind that the "unthinkable" for Theresa May is not being swept into No.10 following a landslide victory giving her the huge mandate that she called this election for in the first place.

Not quite all going to plan.

[BennyD]

Of course, all these pollsters got the result of the last election and Brexit spot on and this is why we should take them as gospel.

[claretandy]

Its the non voters who are pushing Labour's numbers up according to Yougov, we all know how this ends...

[jlup1980]

It's hardly a surpirse the gap is closing. I genuinely don't know how anyone can get behind May after the month she's had. She's quickly becoming the new poster girl for Spitting Image.

I'm never one for conspiracy theories but the one about the Tories trying to throw the election actually seems plausible. Why else would they seemingly be getting everything so wrong?!

[Imploding Turtle]

Of course, all these pollsters got the result of the last election and Brexit spot on and this is why we should take them as gospel.

They weren't wrong about Brexit. The result ended up being within the margin of error of the last polls before the referendum. It's a myth that they got Brexit wrong.

And there was polling that predicted the Conservative win. But it was internal polling conducted for the Conservative campaign and so wasn't made public. Since then the public pollsters will have learned from the methods of the Tory pollsters so that that particular mistake can't happen again. Another error will happen at some poitn and there's be an inquest among the polling industry, but to dismiss polls the way you have is just lazy and unthinking and hopefully that's what Tory voters are doing.

[NottsClaret]

If the Tories can keep anyone from asking May a question before polling day they'll be fine.

If Corbyn can hold off blaming the Jews for something or promising to hand back Gibraltar then he might close the gap a bit more. Big ask though.

Both parties with two big vote losers leading them in a head to head race to the bottom. Should be fascinating.

[COYC73]

He won't even beat the SNP in Scotland....and he would need all the those seats turning back to Labour...and then take quite a few Tories seats....never going to happen! Won't even be close in the end

[Imploding Turtle]

I think most people don't understand how polling works, or how to interpret the results.

Opinion polling isn't exact. Ever. There is no opinion poll with 0% margin of error that doesn't literally count the opinions of every single person.

Opinion polls take a statistically significant sample of the population to present an approximation of that population's opinion on things. But there's always a margin of error usually about 2 to 3% in either direction. So if a poll says something is 50%-50% it only means there's a 95% chance that the actuality is between 53-47 and 47-53, with it more likely being towards the center of that range. This means that 1 in 20 times the actuality is going to be outside the margin of error. That doesn't necessarily mean the methodology was bad, or that the poll was wrong, it just means that 1 in 20 times the results of the sample they took fell outside the margin of error when compared to the results of the whole population.

[Imploding Turtle]

If the Tories can keep anyone from asking May a question before polling day they'll be fine.

If Corbyn can hold off blaming the Jews for something or promising to hand back Gibraltar then he might close the gap a bit more. Big ask though.

Both parties with two big vote losers leading them in a head to head race to the bottom. Should be fascinating.

Has there ever been a less inspiring line up among the 3 main parties? Even UKIP have lose their inspiring clown and just have an inarticulate clown.

[Rowls]

And the odds of them getting two polls in a row outside the "actuality" are 400-1.

Given that the polls are actually in actuality correct (and only stupid people misunderstand them) the chances of the polls being wrong -by which I mean outside the margins of actuality- twice in a row are 400-1.

So, for example, if the polls were wrong in the General Election of 2015 and then again straight afterwards in the Brexit referendum that represents odds of 400-1.

What are the chances of that, eh?

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm now a massive fan of the UKIP candidate for East Susssex.

His plans for asteroid mining are ace.

[Cirrus_Minor]

I think 3 things are going Labours way.

1. The Tories have framed May as strong and stable to try to contrast to Corbyn perceived lack of leadership but every time she is questioned on flip flop policies she looks increasing wobbly whilst Corbyn is performing very well.
2. The Tories are presenting everything using fear, this tactic was blamed for losing Brexit.
3. Labour's manifesto is well thought out and is popular with the electorate.

[claretdom]

At least the UKIP guy in Easy Sussex has done a video presentation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYSupJ5r2zo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Imploding Turtle]

At least the UKIP guy in Easy Sussex has done a video presentation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYSupJ5r2zo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AndrewJB]

You have to take polls with a pinch of salt, but what I take from it is the general trend. Labour still have a hill to climb, but the foundations are there in terms of a strong and stable manifesto, and a positive campaign. With election rules in place the mainstream media are restricted in their negative portrayals of Corbyn, so voters are getting the opportunity to hear his message.

[RocketLawnChair]

Hull were only 6 points behind, And we all know what happened to them !

[Silkyskills1]

Hull were only 6 points behind, And we all know what happened to them !

You stole my thunder there,RLC. Just about to say it might go down to the last day.

[The Enclosure]

May has ****** off the pensioners...big mistake.

[Imploding Turtle]

May has ****** off the pensioners...big mistake.

According to the poll not many have said they'll switch their vote. only a few percent fanve gone from voting tory to 'not sure'.

[Lancasterclaret]

Today could be his "Sunderland at home" moment.

[nil_desperandum]

You stole my thunder there,RLC. Just about to say it might go down to the last day.

It didn't go to the last day for Hull though. They shot themselves in the foot against Sunderland at home.
I imagine Corbyn will do something equally stupid / unfortunate in the next couple of weeks and he'll be back where he started.
Edit: Beat me to it Lancaster - as usual!

[fatboy47]

He won't even beat the SNP in Scotland....and he would need all the those seats turning back to Labour...and then take quite a few Tories seats....never going to happen! Won't even be close in the end

not really.....the SNP aren't purely there to keep the tories in power as the Liberals are...they wouldn't prop up a tory government, and as such are effectively almost as useful to Corbyn as Labour members are......in fact many SNP members are more inclined to socialism than most that fought under the Bliar flag.

The only use the SNP has to the tories is that they may split the left vote enough for an odd tory to sneak in.

Say what you want but the average Jock isn't nearly so brainwashed as our homegrown forelock tuggers down here.

[AndrewJB]

I'd say his form is more similar to Leicester's a few seasons back.

[Spijed]

As it's highly likely that Teresa May will become PM I wonder if there will be plans from within the Tory to get rid of her within the next few months?

It's becoming increasingly obvious that she is out of her depth as a world leader and will be taken to the cleaners by anyone who negotiates with her.

[Imploding Turtle]

As it's highly likely that Teresa May will become PM I wonder if there will be plans from within the Tory to get rid of her within the next few months?

It's becoming increasingly obvious that she is out of her depth as a world leader and will be taken to the cleaners by anyone who negotiates with her.

No. It won't happen. There's no way the Tories would detonate their premiership by getting rid of someone who has just been handed a mandate by about 35% of the people (lol) to lead the country during the negotiations. Any new PM within a few months of the election would be considered illegitimate by the rest of us and more than a few Tories in parliament, making the government unworkable and prompting another election which they would get drawn and quartered in for making us go through this **** again.

[SammyBoy]

not really.....the SNP aren't purely there to keep the tories in power as the Liberals are...they wouldn't prop up a tory government, and as such are effectively almost as useful to Corbyn as Labour members are......in fact many SNP members are more inclined to socialism than most that fought under the Bliar flag.

The only use the SNP has to the tories is that they may split the left vote enough for an odd tory to sneak in.

Say what you want but the average Jock isn't nearly so brainwashed as our homegrown forelock tuggers down here.

I think this is true, I'd be interested to see the SNPs voting record and who they align more with.

[Spijed]

No. It won't happen. There's no way the Tories would detonate their premiership by getting rid of someone who has just been handed a mandate by about 35% of the people (lol) to lead the country during the negotiations. Any new PM within a few months of the election would be considered illegitimate by the rest of us and more than a few Tories in parliament, making the government unworkable and prompting another election which they would get drawn and quartered in for making us go through this **** again.

Brexit is going to be a disaster if TM is doing the negotiations.

[claretandy]

The IFS has just slammed Labours costings for their manifesto, saying that their tax rises won't raise nowhere near what they claim they will do.

[Imploding Turtle]

The IFS has just slammed Labours costings for their manifesto, saying that their tax rises won't raise nowhere near what they claim they will do.

They said some other things today too, didn't they? About the Tories.

[If it be your will]

.

[aggi]

The IFS has just slammed Labours costings for their manifesto, saying that their tax rises won't raise nowhere near what they claim they will do.

Good effort, there's a chance that the people who rely solely on ClaretsMad for their news and don't look at a single other website will believe that it's only the labour manifesto that the IFS "slammed".

[Lancasterclaret]

Its a **** poor state of affairs that both of the parties who have a chance of running the country have manifestos that don't add up.

[claretandy]

They said some other things today too, didn't they? About the Tories.

This is a thread about Labour, if you want to slam the Tories then go right ahead, by the way Corbyn isn't taking questions after his speech.

[Imploding Turtle]

This is a thread about Labour, if you want to slam the Tories then go right ahead, by the way Corbyn isn't taking questions after his speech.

He probably has somewhere to be. A much better reason than "oh, is that a pen you're holding? Yeah? Well **** you".

[Imploding Turtle]

And it's not just about Labour. Who is Corbyn only 5 points behind?

[mdd2]

I don't think Theresa is going to have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory but she is getting pretty close. What is amazing is that a socialist policy by Theresa is getting slammed. The alternative to her Dementia tax is to have millions of working people paying taxes to fund all and sundry in care homes etc to allow the middle classes to leave in excess of £100k to their offspring and Jeremy and Dim Fallon are opposed to it.
It is a policy that is fairer than taxing hard working folk even more; but will now be watered down so that my kids and many others will benefit.
Maybe he wants them to keep the £000's so that he can grab it in inheritance tax.

[keith1879]

And the odds of them getting two polls in a row outside the "actuality" are 400-1.

Given that the polls are actually in actuality correct (and only stupid people misunderstand them) the chances of the polls being wrong -by which I mean outside the margins of actuality- twice in a row are 400-1.

So, for example, if the polls were wrong in the General Election of 2015 and then again straight afterwards in the Brexit referendum that represents odds of 400-1.

What are the chances of that, eh?

But - as Imploding Turfite has painstakingly demonstrated - the Brexit poll was correct to within the normal margin of error. Unfortunately on a binary question where the country was almost split down the middle the normal margin of error was too great and any pollster (or other statistician) would have told you that either result was entirely possible - it's the press who misrepresent the polls. What the polls dd show was a continuing and accelarating move from a substantial majority in favour of remain to a possible majority in favour of leave - which seems to have been a very accurate indication of how the nation changed it's mood.

[keith1879]

Have the polls yet started to factor in the obvious conclusion from recent elections that people who intend to vote for the Tories are actually too embarassed to say so? If not then a 5% lead for Theresa is actually somewhat larger.

[nil_desperandum]

My like for 41 is a sign that I agree, not that I consider it a good thing!

[IanMcL]

Why would anyone with any sense vote for a party who steals from thew poor, keeps ordinary people in their place, deprives the old and young and kills foxes for sport?

....and yet such madness exists!

The lemming party might do well!

[SammyBoy]

I too fear that the shy Tories will be out in force again on election day, and as much as I want to think Labour are going to pull off the impossible I still can't see it. Hopefully they will restrict TM and her cronies to a small majority though.

[AndrewJB]

I don't think Theresa is going to have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory but she is getting pretty close. What is amazing is that a socialist policy by Theresa is getting slammed. The alternative to her Dementia tax is to have millions of working people paying taxes to fund all and sundry in care homes etc to allow the middle classes to leave in excess of £100k to their offspring and Jeremy and Dim Fallon are opposed to it.
It is a policy that is fairer than taxing hard working folk even more; but will now be watered down so that my kids and many others will benefit.
Maybe he wants them to keep the £000's so that he can grab it in inheritance tax.

Having a universal system - we all pay in as we can and take out as we need - is much fairer than what May is proposing. Nobody is left behind or falls through the cracks or games the system. And there's also no huge inneficient system to run it all.

[Imploding Turtle]

And the odds of them getting two polls in a row outside the "actuality" are 400-1.

Given that the polls are actually in actuality correct (and only stupid people misunderstand them) the chances of the polls being wrong -by which I mean outside the margins of actuality- twice in a row are 400-1.

So, for example, if the polls were wrong in the General Election of 2015 and then again straight afterwards in the Brexit referendum that represents odds of 400-1.

What are the chances of that, eh?

The Brexit polls were broadly accurate. You're making two errors. The first one is that you're considering all Brexit polls as one and thinking that it's 19/1 that all of them are wrong. That's false.

The second mistake is that you're thinking that the odds of consecutive polls being outside the margin of error is 399/1. That's only true if you only evaluate one poll at random, and the one that follows. Every election cycle there are hundreds, maybe thousands of polls conducted. The probability that there are consecutive polls for which the actuality is outside the margin for error is pretty high. In every 20 "anomalous" polls you can expect that about one of them will be immediately followed by another "anomalous" poll.

[If it be your will]

.

[Stan Tastic]

They need to keep Dianne Abbott locked away to stand a chance.

[Damo]

Their Facebook meme campaign on Facebook certainly seems to be snaring a few idiots

[Spijed]

Have the polls yet started to factor in the obvious conclusion from recent elections that people who intend to vote for the Tories are actually too embarassed to say so? If not then a 5% lead for Theresa is actually somewhat larger.

I think they have as that was a problem with previous polls at the last election.