Thick farmers' Brexit regrets

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:18 am

Despite their entire industry being completely reliant on EU funding, farmers overwhelmingly supported Brexit.

Looks like the chickens are coming home to roost for our bumpkin friends

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... t-says-nfu

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:22 am

STOP TALKING BRITAIN DOWN!

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:27 am

I bet them thick farmers have a lot wealthier lifestyle than your good self.

If you read the article fully it says farmers confidence for the next year is up to record highs from the last 4 years.

Stop making yourself look silly.

Funkydrummer · Post by **Funkydrummer** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:28 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:STOP TALKING BRITAIN DOWN!

Stop shouting !

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:32 am

UpTheBeehole wrote:Looks like the chickens are coming home to roost for our bumpkin friends

I can't imagine many of them are your friends if that's your attitude.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:36 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:I bet them thick farmers have a lot wealthier lifestyle than your good self.

You don't know what I earn. I know for a fact though that people in my occupation have much lower suicide rates than farmers, so it can't all be (EU funded) Range Rovers and fat farmer's wives cooking game pie on the Aga.

claretdom · Post by **claretdom** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:39 am

Anti brexit, reads the Guardian and has studied suicide rates of different jobs.

Some roll of honour

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:42 am

The ones up here are worried about it.

But I don't know why, there is £350 million every week to spread around isn't there? Sure I saw that somewhere....

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:44 am

Statistics is my job, particularly mortality rates.

Statistically Brexit was (and still is) going to be really bad for Britain. That's not an opinion given to me by the Guardian either.

duncandisorderly · Post by **duncandisorderly** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:46 am

UpTheBeehole wrote:Statistics is my job

You're the chief of the Gauls, aren't you?

BertiesBeehole · Post by **BertiesBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:46 am

Shame on you UpTheBeehole

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:55 am

UpTheBeehole wrote:Despite their entire industry being completely reliant on EU funding, farmers overwhelmingly supported Brexit.

Looks like the chickens are coming home to roost for our bumpkin friends

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... t-says-nfu

1. There is no "eu funding" it's our money coming back. Only "bumpkins" believe in "eu funding" they're not sophisticated enough to understand the term, net contribution.

2. The referendum was a year ago. You lost. Get over it

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:04 am

OK, well if it's our own money coming back, I look forward to a very prosperous farming industry over the next 15-20 years.

£2.5bn a year is a lot for it to match on its own however.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:05 am

UpTheBeehole wrote:Statistics is my job, particularly mortality rates.

Statistically Brexit was (and still is) going to be really bad for Britain. That's not an opinion given to me by the Guardian either.

With mortality, you use past data to estimate future trends. People have died before and will continue to die so past data is relevant to what is going to happen.

How do you use statistics to measure things that haven't happened in circumstances that aren't comparable?

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:08 am

They might have to do some actual farming now as opposed to getting paid a fortune for owning empty fields, while we import dirt cheap meat from around the EU

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:10 am

Damo, I live in a rural area.

There is no way I'd do it, and I doubt you would as well!

Christ, I thought transport was bad but they work daft hours

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:14 am

"Statistically Brexit was (and still is) going to be really bad for Britain"

I got a B Sc in Statistics in 1972 (from what is now a "Russell Group" uni) and then worked for 40 years for big customer-facing companies using mathematical, statistical and analytical techniques to help them make good business decisions.

I disagree with your view (and attitude to farmers).

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:14 am

What are you asking me to do? Predict suicide rates in farmers once their €3bn subsidies have been stopped?

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:15 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Damo, I live in a rural area.

There is no way I'd do it, and I doubt you would as well!

Christ, I thought transport was bad but they work daft hours

I know plenty of people who used to work in the farming industry.
Your right about me personally. I wouldn't like to raise my own food, but there are plenty of people around who would lobe the opportunity to work in that environment

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:18 am

LeadBelly wrote:"Statistically Brexit was (and still is) going to be really bad for Britain"

I got a B Sc in Statistics in 1972 (from what is now a "Russell Group" uni) and then worked for 40 years for big customer-facing companies using mathematical, statistical and analytical techniques to help them make good business decisions.

I disagree with your view (and attitude to farmers).

I suspect yours is a political view, rather than one based upon data.

I came into statistics from a data background. More sophisticated modelling than is available to me has long stated that Brexit will be bad for Britain.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:18 am

Aye, sounds ace but the reality of the hill farms in the Trough might change their minds a bit!

Its a shame you didn't mispell "love" as "lube", it would have taken this thread to a whole new level

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:20 am

Notice in regarding whether Brexit would be bad or not on QT last week. The only person pretending that it still wouldn't be was David Davis.

claretdom · Post by **claretdom** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:20 am

Well we were told the country would be finished within 24 hours of voting leave so I have no doubt you can find data to say it will be bad. You can also find data to say it won't be. Guess it comes down to your own agenda what you wish to see.

The fact that when using your data it brought you to a result of calling farmers "thick" maybe shows where your agenda sits though.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:20 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:The ones up here are worried about it.

But I don't know why, there is £350 million every week to spread around isn't there? Sure I saw that somewhere....

For some reason I was under the impression that brexit would benefit farmers the most out of anyone. Tariffs on the EU farm goods would mean everyone buying British again wouldn't it?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:23 am

Before Britain joined the EEC, farmers were dependent on subsidies from the UK government; after we leave, no doubt farmers will again be dependent on UK subsidies. There are no statistics which say whether or not this will be good for them.

morpheus2 · Post by **morpheus2** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:26 am

UpTheBeehole wrote:I suspect yours is a political view, rather than one based upon data.

I came into statistics from a data background. More sophisticated modelling than is available to me has long stated that Brexit will be bad for Britain.

That's the spirit! Positive attitude and stiff upper lip, it's what made Britain great, I've got to admire your balls!

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:26 am

All depends if we are talking about the large (lazy in some cases) industrial farmers that rely and have done and are doing very very well out of Europe subsidies

Further more if we do leave Europe (and i'm not absolutely 100% of that) then I view it as very good opportunely to push the Home Grown, Local and or Organic market to the benefit of the Economy of this Country in the medium/long term.

morpheus2 · Post by **morpheus2** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:26 am

PM me with that pic, I'll send you my email address

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:27 am

claretdom wrote:Well we were told the country would be finished within 24 hours of voting leave so I have no doubt you can find data to say it will be bad. You can also find data to say it won't be. Guess it comes down to your own agenda what you wish to see.

The fact that when using your data it brought you to a result of calling farmers "thick" maybe shows where your agenda sits though.

I think we were were told we'd be finished within 24 hours of actually leaving..............I think with tired old Maybe at the helm - if she survives as Party Leader that long - that still applies and we're bolloxed.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:30 am

So the farmers will be expecting the Government to top them up by £2.5bn per year?

The entire welfare spend on unemployment benefits is £3bn.

Absolute leeches.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:31 am

"I came into statistics from a data background. More sophisticated modelling than is available to me has long stated that Brexit will be bad for Britain"

So these Stats aren't yours then?
In any case, the statistical modelling (which will vary depending who is doing it and what assumptions are used) are generally only concerning the Economy. Many people who want Brexit are not just looking at economic outcomes but at ability to make our own laws and decisions about immigration etc. I don't see it as "bad for Britain" if GDP or even GDP per head goes down a bit but we get a more cohesive society.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:32 am

Some more nonsense stemming from that Guardian article.

You can find anything if you look hard enough.

My wife runs a business advising farmers and she knows hundreds of them. The overwhelming sense she got was that they are sick to death of EU regulations dictating how they have to produce their food when they know perfectly well how to do it themselves. There are other issues too. They know Brexit will lead to some issues, but saw it as a crucial first step, and still do on the whole.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:33 am

Tariffs on the EU farm goods would mean everyone buying British again wouldn't it?

I think British beef (certainly based on accounts I do) ends up being subsidised roughly 4 times the price it is now (based on the production costs versus selling costs)

its an area though where farming is hard to work, so I doubt it would nationally that high, but still could see UK prices for British meat double and triple.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:43 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Some more nonsense stemming from that Guardian article.

You can find anything if you look hard enough.

My wife runs a business advising farmers and she knows hundreds of them. The overwhelming sense she got was that they are sick to death of EU regulations dictating how they have to produce their food when they know perfectly well how to do it themselves. There are other issues too. They know Brexit will lead to some issues, but saw it as a crucial first step, and still do on the whole.

It's a Guardian article reporting on a National Farmers Union report.

If you don't trust the Guardian, surely you trust the NFU?

http://www.nfuonline.com/news/latest-ne ... nty-looms/

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:48 am

That link says that confidence has fallen because of Brexit, and yet has a graph showing confidence has risen between April 16 and April 17. Are the NFU a bit confused?

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:50 am

dsr wrote:That link says that confidence has fallen because of Brexit, and yet has a graph showing confidence has risen between April 16 and April 17. Are the NFU a bit confused?

An up day?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:51 am

If you read the article, short term confidence is good (up to now effectively) , but long term it isn't.

There isn't anything other than Brexit soundbites for long term planning at the moment, which is bound to affect confidence.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:51 am

Read the words

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:52 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:If you read the article, short term confidence is good (up to now effectively) , but long term it isn't.

There isn't anything other than Brexit soundbites for long term planning at the moment, which is bound to affect confidence.

This is what their article says:

"The NFU survey shows an 18-point drop in the last two years. It says the political environment since the UK voted to leave the EU is a key driver for this fall in mid-term confidence."

And yet levels were plus 20 in April 15, minus 2 in April 16, plus 1 in April 17. The NFU are trying to argue that the fall in confidence between April 15 and April 16 is because of the result of the Brexit vote in June 16.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:54 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote: My wife runs a business advising farmers and she knows hundreds of them. The overwhelming sense she got was that they are sick to death of EU regulations dictating how they have to produce their food when they know perfectly well how to do it themselves.

To me this is the point and you can either agree or disagree:
None of these EU rules will change, they will be adopted by the UK, and if they aren't then they won't be able to export their produce.
Ok, a few regulations might disappear but voting to lose a 2.5 billion subsidy, and just assuming that the UK government will match it, in order to - potentially - escape some regulations seems like a big gamble to me.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:57 am

Then complain the guardian and the NFU then.

Or you could answer the point I made, that there isn't anything other than soundbites about the future post-Brexit. Which is the case at the moment.

Whether you agree with Brexit of not, the only thing you hear from the likely winners is "we need a big majority to negotiate a better deal then we have now".

Even you know thats bull, but you just can't say it.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:58 am

Seeing as some people don't seem to be able to read properly, here is what the NFU are saying:

The NFU is calling on candidates to make Brexit a success for British farmers as new survey results show their confidence for the next three years has taken a significant knock.

The NFU survey shows an 18-point drop in the last two years. It says the political environment since the UK voted to leave the EU is a key driver for this fall in mid-term confidence.

NFU President Meurig Raymond said it is unnerving to see the three year outlook drop as it has in the past been fairly resilient and optimistic.

He said: “Farmer confidence is absolutely critical to the future of a profitable and productive food and farming sector. In such a period of uncertainty politically, we need politicians to fully understand the impact this lack of clarity is having economically.

“The outlook from farmers is positive for the next 12 months due to the weak sterling, but we all know farming businesses are long-term and cannot rely on currency fluctuations. The government elected later this week will need to take firm action to maximize on the future potential of British food and farming. We need a competent and reliable workforce, a fit for purpose domestic agricultural policy and the right trade deals. And to address this debilitating uncertainty, they need to give the industry as many assurances as possible.”

Investment intentions - which are also a good and early indicator of profitability, production and how progressive farmers can be – showed farmers were nearly twice as likely to be decreasing investment (20.1%) as a result of the EU referendum than increasing investment (10.7%) in the next 12 months.

Mr Raymond added: “Investment in farming businesses is integral to our ability to produce food efficiently and sustainably, ensuring food security and farming’s huge contribution to the health and wealth of the nation.

“With just 10% willing to increase investment in their business, it does not paint a pretty picture for the progressive industry that we are striving to be. But this is exactly why we’ll be working closely with the newly elected team at Defra, to ensure that investment is a key part of a new domestic agricultural policy.”

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:04 pm

On the upside, that half a million that Paul Dacre has taken in farming subsidies may cease.

BigChaCha · Post by **BigChaCha** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:06 pm

I come from a family of farmers on both sides of my family. The first thing I will say is that all of them and there siblings are millionaires!

I have never met a poor farmer yet after working with them for years and most of my family have made the money through converting ''green belt'' land that was supposed to be impossible to build on into a prime location for property. In fact I know a lot of farmers who worked directly with property building companies to bend the rules so that green belt land can be built on. A lot of beautiful places in the Ribble valley has been ruined by my farming family, replaced by modern but ugly housing. I could go on about bending rules with subsidies as well

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:13 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:Seeing as some people don't seem to be able to read properly, here is what the NFU are saying:

Exactly. Confidence dropped like a stone before the referendum, and it was because of the referendum result. That's what they're saying.

The rest is just padding, the sort of article they could have written whatever the result of the opinion poll.

No Ney Never · Post by **No Ney Never** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:26 pm

It's about time the price of produce from our farms went up. Milk for instance should be twice the price that it is currently. £1 for 4 pints is less than 50p a litre, should be at least £2. People are quite happy to pay 70p for a can of pop (330ml) equating to £2.10 a litre and it's only carbonated water with a bit of sugar, why should milk be so ridiculously cheap in comparison?
The price of milk, meats, fruit and vegetables are subsidised through grants to make them more affordable to those less well off, grants that are paid out from the tax collected from the higher earners and business. As a society we can either cut the grants and raise prices, or continue as is so people further down the income scale have a chance of affording a reasonable diet.
A crap diet, more illness. More illness, more burden on the NHS. More burden on the NHS, more money required to fund it. I still think milk so go up in price regardless. £3.50 a pint of beer, 25p for a pint of milk, shocking!

BertiesBeehole · Post by **BertiesBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:54 pm

Their low confidence for the next three years is hardly surprising. Is any bodies confidence 'high' for the next 3 years.

My confidence long term however is high. And as pointed out the economic fallout from Brexit is not necessarily why people voted to leave anyway.

It doesn't mean farmers regret Brexit, if indeed they voted that way. And it certainly doesn't mean they're thick.

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:09 pm

The Brexit result was about Immigration.
Most people don't think that the country could survive as they wanted it to be with the ongoing scale and type of immigration.
It is arguable that in the long term reducing and more importantly controlling the type of immigration will benefit the economy.

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:12 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:Despite their entire industry being completely reliant on EU funding, farmers overwhelmingly supported Brexit.

Looks like the chickens are coming home to roost for our bumpkin friends

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... t-says-nfu

All Leave voters are Thickos again!
It's beginning to look like a lot of Remainers are arrogant tw@ts

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:57 pm

Your previous (deleted) postings outed you as a massive racist Bleeding, so I wouldn't start if I was you.