2019 Burnley Election Forecast Competition ...

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:48 pm

By popular request, and rather earlier than usual, I'm launching the 3rd Burnley Election Forecast Competition ....

It's quite simple .... forecast the vote share of each of the Candidates ( to one decimal point ), for the Burnley Constituency at the General Election to be held on 12th December. The winner is the forecaster who gets nearest the actual result ie: If you predict Labour 43.0% and Lib Dem 26.5%, and the actual result is 38.5% and 22.5% respectively, then you'd score 4.5 pts and 4 pts. The score for all 7 Candidates is added up, and the lowest score wins.

There are seven Candidates, after the final nominations closed on Thursday ....

Gordon Birtwistle - Liberal Democrats
Charlie Briggs - Burnley & Padiham Independents
Julie E Cooper - Labour
Dr Laura Fisk - Green
Karen Helsby-Entwistle - Independent
Antony Hegginbotham - Conservative
Stewart Scott - Brexit Party

All previous General Election results for Burnley, are available on wikipedia under .. " Burnley (UK Parliament constituency) "

Entry is FREE, and I will happily donate £25 to a charity of the winners choosing .... Fatboy47 won in 2017, and the donation was made to Pendleside Hospice.

So, do you have your finger on Burnley's " political pulse ", or do you live in a " bubble ", only talking to like-minded friends ? If exiled from the town, have you lost touch with your " roots ", or do you still know what makes Burnley " tick " ?

One last request before you search for your inner " Sir John Curtice " .... PLEASE keep this thread to your predictions and maybe a few words of reasoning, rather than getting into political arguments ! There's other threads on here to do that to your heart's content .....

UTC and Good luck all !!

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:11 pm

I'll get the ball rolling with a complete guess as someone who no longer lives in Burnley and has no idea of the general political feeling in the town

Gordon Birtwistle - Liberal Democrats - 11.2%
Charlie Briggs - Burnley & Padiham Independents - 4.8%
Julie E Cooper - Labour - 34.6%
Dr Laura Fisk - Green - 1.3%
Karen Helsby-Entwistle - Independent - 2.4%
Antony Hegginbotham - Conservative - 29.8%
Stewart Scott - Brexit Party - 15.9%

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:39 pm

Con 34
Lab 31
LD 22
Brexit 9
Green 2
Padiham 1
Ind 1

Somethingfishy · Post by **Somethingfishy** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:46 pm

Con 33.5
Lab 32.5
Brexit 20
LD 8
Pad 3
Green 2
Ind 1

I luv my wife · Post by **I luv my wife** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:30 am

Do all the percentage points have to add up to 100

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:22 am

Lab 33.5
Con 30.5
Brexit 17
Lib Dems 15
Green 3
Ind1

Aclaret · Post by **Aclaret** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:37 am

Burnley Conservatives 1 Burnley Labour 0

Guitargeorge · Post by **Guitargeorge** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:46 am

Gordon Birtwistle - Liberal Democrat’s 11%
Charlie Briggs - Burnley & Padiham Independents 2%
Julie E Cooper - Labour 29z
Dr Laura Fisk - Green. 6%
Karen Helsby-Entwistle - Independent 1%
Antony Hegginbotham - Conservative 28%
Stewart Scott - Brexit Part. 23%

Aclaret · Post by **Aclaret** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:47 am

I luv my wife wrote:Do all the percentage points have to add up to 100

Im 99% sure they do.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:34 pm

I luv my wife wrote:Do all the percentage points have to add up to 100

Yes, unless Diane Abbott is entering !!

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:47 pm

Clarets4me wrote:One last request before you search for your inner " Sir John Curtice " .... PLEASE keep this thread to your predictions and maybe a few words of reasoning, rather than getting into political arguments ! There's other threads on here to do that to your heart's content .....

Clarets4me wrote:Yes, unless Diane Abbott is entering !!

Well that lasted a long time

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:54 pm

Gordon Birtwistle - Liberal Democrats - 18.9%
Charlie Briggs - Burnley & Padiham Independents - 4.8%
Julie E Cooper - Labour - 36.7%
Dr Laura Fisk - Green - 2.3%
Karen Helsby-Entwistle - Independent - 1.6%
Antony Hegginbotham - Conservative - 20.8%
Stewart Scott - Brexit Party - 14.9%

Too many people will forget this is a general election and treat it as Brexit vote #2 (or is it 3? or 4?)
2017 result
Labour-Julie Cooper 18,832 46.7%
Conservative-Paul White 12,479 31.0%
Liberal Democrats-Gordon Birtwistle 6,046 15.0%
UKIP-Tom Commis 2,472 6.1%
Green-Laura Fisk 461 1.1%

Edited 18/11 after checking 2017 scores

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:57 pm

And here is the result, minus the ones who don't tell the truth...

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:38 pm

FactualFrank wrote:And here is the result, minus the ones who don't tell the truth...

??

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:02 pm

Clarets4me wrote:??

I'm saying they tell you what you want to hear.

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:09 pm

Not sure I understand your scoring I.e. why lowest score wins. If you get top marks for being right, highest score etc.

Labour victory, if Burnley has any sense left.
Why a working person in Burnley would vote Conservative ever, remains beyond me. 10 years of whipping and still some do t want a better life?

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:21 pm

Gordon Birtwistle - Liberal Democrat’s 17%
Charlie Briggs - Burnley & Padiham Independents 4%
Julie E Cooper - Labour 30%
Dr Laura Fisk - Green. 2%
Karen Helsby-Entwistle - Independent 0.5%
Antony Hegginbotham - Conservative 30.5%
Stewart Scott - Brexit Part. 16%
57 spoilt ballot papers Tory win after recount. Anti brexit vote more split then pro brexit vote.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:37 pm

IanMcL wrote:Not sure I understand your scoring I.e. why lowest score wins. If you get top marks for being right, highest score etc.

Labour victory, if Burnley has any sense left.
Why a working person in Burnley would vote Conservative ever, remains beyond me. 10 years of whipping and still some do t want a better life?

Golf.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:41 pm

IanMcL wrote:Not sure I understand your scoring I.e. why lowest score wins. If you get top marks for being right, highest score etc.

Labour victory, if Burnley has any sense left.
Why a working person in Burnley would vote Conservative ever, remains beyond me. 10 years of whipping and still some do t want a better life?

You predict 41% Labour ( Actual 38% ), 26 % Conservative ( Actual 22% ) then you score 3 + 4 and so on, add the 7 scores to get a total ...
Lowest score will be the winner, because they will have been nearest to the actual scores on average ... OK ?

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:00 pm

Ok. Got it

Bosscat · Post by **Bosscat** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:03 pm

Clarets4me wrote:You predict 41% Labour ( Actual 38% ), 26 % Conservative ( Actual 22% ) then you score 3 + 4 and so on, add the 7 scores to get a total ...
Lowest score will be the winner, because they will have been nearest to the actual scores on average ... OK ?

Clear as pig poo mixed with treacle in a mud pool

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:19 am

My own crystal ball .... for what it's worth

Labour 34.1
Con 30.1
L/D 19.7
BRX 8.9
BPIP 3.7
Green 2.8
Ind 0.7

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:34 am

Does it matter though. Is there a difference between absolutely awful and really really awful?

Dazzler · Post by **Dazzler** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:44 am

IanMcL wrote:Labour victory, if Burnley has any sense left.
Why a working person in Burnley would vote Conservative ever, remains beyond me. 10 years of whipping and still some do t want a better life?

When did you last reside in Burnley?

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:00 am

Dazzler wrote:When did you last reside in Burnley?

Don't need to reside somewhere to make a comment. I have been and stayed enough times.

Lord Rothbury · Post by **Lord Rothbury** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:49 am

Having looked through the predictions for polling percentages one thing stands out. That is that everyone is underestimating the number of votes Charlie Briggs will poll. I can only speak for the wards of Gannow and Lowerhouse & Rosegrove where I have some feel for opinion and that is that Charlie will take most of the old Labour vote. He is well-liked and respected in these wards and just as important visible to voters.

ClaretAndJew · Post by **ClaretAndJew** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:52 am

Imagine voting Conservative living in Burnley.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:00 am

Many Burnley people are going to vote Conservative for the first time in their lives to back up the democratic decision of their Brexit vote.

Expect a major electoral upset...

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:17 am

IanMcL, ClaretAndJew, Mala591, Lord Rothbury .... I look forward to receiving your predictions

If it helps everyone, the last 4 Elections have seen between 39,000-42,000 votes cast in Burnley. On average, 400 or so votes equates to 1% of " vote share ", so if a certain Candidate gets 6,000 votes, their " vote share " would be roughly 15% ...

ClaretAndJew · Post by **ClaretAndJew** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:19 am

I predict the turkeys voting for Christmas.

The tories will plunge us further back into depression up here.

CardyTheClaret · Post by **CardyTheClaret** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:42 pm

ClaretAndJew wrote:I predict the turkeys voting for Christmas.

The tories will plunge us further back into depression up here.

It was ******* glorious under the Labour years, wasn't it?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:45 pm

Whats Charlie Briggs political background btw?

Is he just a normal lad whose having a go then?

(Ignore, google is my friend!)

ClaretAndJew · Post by **ClaretAndJew** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:57 pm

CardyTheClaret wrote:It was ******* glorious under the Labour years, wasn't it?

I don't know, was it?

What will the Tories do for us up here?

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:37 pm

Never been a fan of the messageboard police but clarets4me is trying to run a lighthearted guessing comp on the Burnley elections so do we need to start going off on one on here.

There is a Brexit thread, an election thread and even a specific Burnley election thread (Julie Cooper one) so can we not leave this to just the guessing game its meant to be

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:42 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:Never been a fan of the messageboard police but clarets4me is trying to run a lighthearted guessing comp on the Burnley elections so do we need to start going off on one on here.

There is a Brexit thread, an election thread and even a specific Burnley election thread (Julie Cooper one) so can we not leave this to just the guessing game its meant to be

You are right of course!

Greens 40%
Lib Dems 15%
Labour 20%
Brexit 25% (all postal votes)

Dazzler · Post by **Dazzler** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:46 pm

IanMcL wrote:Don't need to reside somewhere to make a comment. I have been and stayed enough times.

Your comments are sheer ignorance & arrogance.

I luv my wife · Post by **I luv my wife** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:10 pm

Conservative 33%
Labour 26.5%
Big G Libdem 23%
Brexit 7%
Greens 6%
BPIP 4%
Indie 0.5%

I luv my wife · Post by **I luv my wife** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:27 pm

My lovely wifes predictions
Conservative 33%
Coopers lot 0%
Liberal Democrat 40% ( not as silly as some may think )
Brexit ( conservative) 10%
Green party 10%
Burnley and Padiham and Independent party 6%
Independent 1%

ŽižkovClaret · Post by **ŽižkovClaret** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:57 pm

20% - Gordon Birtwistle - Liberal Democrats
13% - Charlie Briggs - Burnley & Padiham Independents
32% - Julie E Cooper - Labour
1.5% - Dr Laura Fisk - Green
1.5% Karen Helsby-Entwistle - Independent
12% - Antony Hegginbotham - Conservative
20% - Stewart Scott - Brexit Party

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:22 pm

I luv my wife wrote:My lovely wifes predictions
Conservative 33%
Coopers lot 0%
Liberal Democrat 40% ( not as silly as some may think )
Brexit ( conservative) 10%
Green party 10%
Burnley and Padiham and Independent party 6%
Independent 1%

I shall remind your delightful wife, of the " edit " function on your thread, as I suspect she knows nothing of this !!

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:27 pm

Dazzler wrote:Your comments are sheer ignorance & arrogance.

It was simply put, accurate and hoping folk would do the right thing.

Perhaps you like being treated like serf? If you don't - and I don't - then for Gawds sake don't even contemplate voting for a party of the most arrogant, self preserving folk, one could have the misfortune to come across.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:48 pm

J Cooper (Lab) 33.4%
S Scott (Brexit) 26.5%
A Hegginbotham (Con) 20.1%
C Briggs (BPIP) 7.8%
G Birtwistle (Lib Dem) 6.7%
L Fisk (Greens) 4.5%
K Entwistle 1%

Labour hold due to some leave voters staying at home,and the rest splitting between the main challengers,i can also see a fair number of Lib Dems holding their nose and casting a tactical vote for Labour,also the Conservatives choosing their candidate late in the contest will hamper their chances.

Apart from the independent who i know little about,expect that she's campaigning about better provision for autistic children,the other 5 are well-known locally,and have got a head start on Hegginbotham.

I can envisage similar results in traditional Labour seats with a large leave vote,in the North West and North East of England,Labour polling well below their usual %,but due to the split in the opposition clinging on to many seats,that's why Johnson was so determined to deter the BP from standing in Labour held seats which the Conservatives are targetting.

fatboy47 · Post by **fatboy47** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:11 am

This one's for hampstead claret.

Labour win, and more comfortable than the media will have you believe.

Birtwhistle. LD. 10%
Briggs Ind. 2%
Cooper.Lab. 37%
Fisk. Green. 6%
Hegginbottom C 28%
Brexit Clown. 15%
Helsby Ind. 2%

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:41 am

fatboy47 wrote:This one's for hampstead claret. Labour win, and more comfortable than the media will have you believe.

Birtwhistle. LD. 10%
Briggs Ind. 2%
Cooper.Lab. 37%
Fisk. Green. 6%
Hegginbottom C 28%
Brexit Clown. 15%
Helsby Ind. 2%

Were you aware of your triumph last time round, " fatboy47 " ?
I did ask for a " charity of your choice ", but I think you were having a break from posting at the time .... so I donated your winnings to Pendleside Hospice !!

fatboy47 · Post by **fatboy47** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:51 am

Thanks C4me......perfect choice! ...sorry..was in and out of hospital last time round...no fun

..i think this stuff is best done by intuition....opinion polls are just a tool to manipulate voters and follow a very predictable pattern with the power brokers desperateley trying to promote a picture of a massive groundswell of support for Libs...happens at every single election....then stories that the Labour vote is collapsing etc

i could write the script out for you....even Teresa made the mistake of believing the polls.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:03 am

Conservative 32%
Labour 30%
Lib Dem 18%
Brexit 12%
Green 5%
Independent Briggs 2.9%
Independent Helsby 0.1%

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:21 am

fatboy47 wrote:Thanks C4me......perfect choice! ...sorry..was in and out of hospital last time round...no fun ..i think this stuff is best done by intuition....opinion polls are just a tool to manipulate voters and follow a very predictable pattern with the power brokers desperateley trying to promote a picture of a massive groundswell of support for Libs...happens at every single election....then stories that the Labour vote is collapsing etc

i could write the script out for you....even Teresa made the mistake of believing the polls.

I'm glad you approve, hope you're back firing on all cylinders !
I can't believe the Conservatives can conduct such a poor campaign this time round, although with Johnson, you get the impression he's just one unthinking remark away from a major " gaffe ". His campaign managers must be nervous wrecks ...

SammyBoy · Post by **SammyBoy** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:24 am

Birtwhistle. LD. 10%
Briggs Ind. 1%
Cooper.Lab. 38%
Fisk. Green. 6%
Hegginbottom C 32%
Brexit Scott. 12%
Helsby Ind. 1%

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:48 pm

Thanks for the 15 entries so far, it's the televised debate between Johnson and Corbyn tonight ....
I suspect many posters are keeping their " powder dry " until nearer polling day !!

Dazzler · Post by **Dazzler** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:49 am

IanMcL wrote:It was simply put, accurate and hoping folk would do the right thing.

Perhaps you like being treated like serf? If you don't - and I don't - then for Gawds sake don't even contemplate voting for a party of the most arrogant, self preserving folk, one could have the misfortune to come across.

From what I can gather,you have never lived in Burnley?