Magic Numbers 2021/2022

[Vince Fontaine]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Here we go

UTC

[Vince Fontaine]

Matchday 23 (for us)

23/02/22

Burnley1-0 Tottenham

Man City………………………..80
Liverpool……………………….77
Chelsea………………………….70
Man Utd………………………..63
West Ham……………………..59
Arsenal………………………….68
Wolves…………………….…….63
Tottenham……………….…..62
Brighton………………….…….53
Southampton………………..52
Palace…………………….…….46
Leicester………………..…….53
Villa………………………..…….50
Brentford………………………41
Leeds…………………….………43
Everton…………………………48
Newcastle………………..….45
Burnley
Watford……………………...38
Norwich………………….…..37

UTC

[Ric_C]

Excellent! All's right with the world

[Tricky Trevor]

4 teams now under 40. 7 defeats for them, highly likely at current rate, would drop them 21points and leave us needing 19 for safety. Probably a few less would be enough.
Magic Numbers.

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League table.

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[Woollyhat]

As a long time lurker (20+ years) and veteran of CM and more recently UTC, can you remind me how the magic numbers work, and why we don’t have a number assigned?

I know this is asked regularly (yearly anyway) but I can never remember!

Also makes me think, when did the original CM get going? I’m almost certain I remember using it in 2002? Maybe worth a separate thread. Brings up teary memories of Muchacho, Ronaldo and much more!

Woolly

[box_of_frogs]

Roughly - magic numbers are the number of points we need to mathematically ensure another club can’t be above us. Therefore, we don’t have number assigned as we can’t finish above ourselves……

[Woollyhat]

Super! Thanks - makes sense now

[box_of_frogs]

Super! Thanks - makes sense now

If I’m correct

[bfccrazy]

Roughly - magic numbers are the number of points we need to mathematically ensure another club can’t be above us. Therefore, we don’t have number assigned as we can’t finish above ourselves……

Kind of right but also not.

Magic number is how many points above us teams can finish still - so currently there is a 37 point swing that could see us relegated.

Each match played by our rivals either keeps them on track to finish above us with a win …. Or they drop points with a loss/draw accordingly.

Each win/draw we get can also take points away from
How many points a team can finish above us according to their results.

This isn’t definitive that all the teams will be able to finish x amount of points above us with what it shows because the teams will have to play each other yet which means 1 team will definitely drop points, if not both.

When a team reaches 0 points they can no longer mathematically finish above us - so we’re following the decline of points til 3 teams hit zero and we can no longer be relegated.

[Vince Fontaine]

Matchday 24 (for us)

26/02/2022

Crystal Palace 1-1 Burnley


Man City………………-1…………..79
Liverpool…………….-1…………..76
Chelsea………….……-1…………..69
Man Utd………………-3…………..60
Arsenal……………….-1…………..67
West Ham ………….-1……….….58
Tottenham ………..-1…………..61
Wolves………………..-1………….59
Southampton …….-1……….….51
Brighton …………….-4……….….49
Palace ……………….-3…………..43
Villa……………………-1…………..49
Leicester ………….-1……….…..52
Newcastle …….….-1…………..44
Brentford ………….-4…………..37
Leeds…………….……-4………….39
Everton………………-4…………..44
Burnley
Watford …………….-3…………..35
Norwich…………….-4…………..33

UTC

[Spijed]

Matchday 24 (for us)

26/02/2022

Crystal Palace 1-1 Burnley


Man City………………-1…………..79
Liverpool…………….-1…………..76
Chelsea………….……-1…………..69
Man Utd………………-3…………..60
Arsenal……………….-1…………..67
West Ham ………….-1……….….58
Tottenham ………..-1…………..61
Wolves………………..-1………….59
Southampton …….-1……….….51
Brighton …………….-4……….….49
Palace ……………….-3…………..43
Villa……………………-1…………..49
Leicester ………….-1……….…..52
Newcastle …….….-1…………..44
Brentford ………….-4…………..37
Leeds…………….……-4………….39
Everton………………-4…………..44
Burnley
Watford …………….-3…………..35
Norwich…………….-4…………..33

UTC

So we could be pretty much safe in six matches.

[NRC]

It shows you, to the point Sean Dyche labors, how far there is to go still, that our closest rivals can still finish thirty-odd points above us

[Vince Fontaine]

It shows you, to the point Sean Dyche labors, how far there is to go still, that our closest rivals can still finish thirty-odd points above us

That’s true but Norwich would have to win every match and we’d need to lose every match.
UTC

[Vince Fontaine]

Over the last six matches, going off the form guide, we’ve affected every clubs magic number by 9 apart from
Watford………11
Man Utd……..11
Brighton……..12
Tottenham….12
Palace………..12

Yet the magic numbers of the teams with the worst form have dropped by
Leeds………………..26
Brentford………….26
Everton…………….24
Watford…………….22

And
Norwich…………..20


Newcastle’s has dropped by 13, that’s more than 2 a match and they’ve had 4 wins and 2 draws and have the second best form in the league.

UTC

[Vince Fontaine]

Matchday 29 for us

Wednesday 6th April 2022

Burnley 3-2 Everton

All teams -3 apart from Everton-6

Man City…………………74
Liverpool……………….73
Chelsea………………….63
Tottenham ……………55
Arsenal …………………58
West Ham …………….49
Man Utd ……………….52
Wolves………………….47
Palace………………….38
Leicester …………….44
Villa …………………….37
Southampton ………37
Brighton ……………..35
Brentford ……………31
Newcastle ………….32
Leeds ………………….28
Everton ………………29
Burnley
Watford ……………..23
Norwich ……………..19

UTC

[Vince Fontaine]

Remaining fixtures

Leeds

Watford away
Palace away
Man City home
Arsenal away
Chelsea home
Brighton home
Brentford away

Everton

Man Utd home
Leicester away
Liverpool away
Chelsea home
Leicester home
Watford away
Brentford home
Palace home
Arsenal away

UTC

[Clarets4me]

Much to do ... but at least we can now look at it without our fingers over our eyes ....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

[Tricky Trevor]

So 3 wins for us and 3 defeats for Everton and we are safe. Simples.

[Goddy]

Interesting that on every projection (whether across last 6 games, last 10 games or across the whole season), Everton get relegated. Jeez - I hope it pans out that way.....