40 points

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kaptin1
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40 points

Post by kaptin1 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:23 am

First half of the season has seen us gain 23 points from 19 games with 22 coming from 11 home games (W7, D1, L3) and 1 from 8 away games (W0, D1, L7).

A similar ratio of points gained at home and away in the second half of the season would see us pick up 16 points from our remaining 8 home games and another point from our 11 away, giving 17 further points and a total for the year of 40.

While I suspect it will be difficult to maintain our home form, I do expect us to pick up at least one win away from home, especially with away games against all of the current bottom 3 to come.

Overall, I think 40 points is well within our reach and this should be more than enough to see us stay up, which would be a phenomenal achievement.

mdd2
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Re: 40 points

Post by mdd2 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:28 am

For me it will be one game at a time
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LoveCurryPies
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Re: 40 points

Post by LoveCurryPies » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:14 pm

Got to win away from home. I want to see 5 or 6 away wins, couple of away draws. Time for the players to believe they can do it.

joey13
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Re: 40 points

Post by joey13 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:17 pm

I think we can get 2 wins and 2 draws away , so that would mean only 3 more wins at home :D

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Re: 40 points

Post by CnBtruntru » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:19 pm

We are good enough to get more than 40 points if you believe you will receive.

WestMidsClaret
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Re: 40 points

Post by WestMidsClaret » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:19 pm

As long as we accumulate enough points to stay up I'm not too fussed how many points we get away from home but it would be nice to win the odd one!!

Saying that we've got the likes of Hull, Sunderland, Swansea and Man City to play away so could get 4 wins for them. :D ;)
Last edited by WestMidsClaret on Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

claretspice
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Re: 40 points

Post by claretspice » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:21 pm

40 points won't be required I don't think. Probably 38 maximum, so 4 wins and a couple of draws ought to see us home, especially if we can avoid defeat away at Hull and Sunderland.

But as a note of caution - Norwich were 8 points clear of Sunderland at this stage last season, so the job isn't done yet.

FactualFrank
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Re: 40 points

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:32 pm

The lion sleeps tonight... a win away, a win away...
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USC
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Re: 40 points

Post by USC » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:41 pm

The three most important away matches are back-to-back late Feb/early March (with Liverpool sandwiched in-between) - Hull, Swansea, Sunderland. They should be the away fixtures to target. Assuming there isn't a remarkable pick-up in form from those teams, if we win those we're home and dry.

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Re: 40 points

Post by Spijed » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:42 pm

claretspice wrote:But as a note of caution - Norwich were 8 points clear of Sunderland at this stage last season, so the job isn't done yet.
But they had Sam Allardyce in charge, not David Moyes. A huge difference!

There was absolutely nothing to suggest in that Sunderland performance that they would fight to the bitter end to stay up, regardless of their current problems. It was toothless to say the least.
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ksrclaret
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Re: 40 points

Post by ksrclaret » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:52 pm

Sunderland picked up 27 points in the second half of the season under Allardyce. I'd say it's hugely unlikely that Sunderland and Moyes will get anywhere close to that this time around.

FactualFrank
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Re: 40 points

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:54 pm

I remember when we were in the Prem under Coyle and pundits on the TV saying we'd be fine, as we were around mid table. There's a long way to go yet.

claretspice
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Re: 40 points

Post by claretspice » Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:01 pm

Spijed wrote:But they had Sam Allardyce in charge, not David Moyes. A huge difference!

There was absolutely nothing to suggest in that Sunderland performance that they would fight to the bitter end to stay up, regardless of their current problems. It was toothless to say the least.
Certainly agree with the second sentence. Think I commented somewhere else last evening that Sunderland's general performance was in its own way as reassuring as the quality of our performance yesterday. They don't look like a team with the quality to go and win 7 or 8 games in the second half of the season. Equally, we look more than good enough to go and get another 4 wins.

But you never know, and I do think Moyes is a decent manager personally. My main point was that we can't afford to get complacent and assume we've done the job. Norwich had a horrible second half of the season last year and we're not good enough to ease off (or for supporters to get too expectant and change the atmosphere around Turf Moor) without being at serious risk of the same thing happening to us. If we keep the dynamics as they are, we've got a hell of a chance.
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No Ney Never
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Re: 40 points

Post by No Ney Never » Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:02 pm

I would like to see us finish as high in the league as possible, there is quite a few quid involved in final placings.

FCBurnley
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Re: 40 points

Post by FCBurnley » Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:59 pm

Half way through and 3rd bottom have 14 points. So 29 points could be enough to survive, Unlikely but dont see us needing 40 points. Tougher second half for sure . More difficult home games but some winnable away, Swansea, Hull etc. It would be disappointing if we were relegated from our current position. 2016 has been amazing. Hoping 2017 will be as good.UTC and a Happy New Year to all Clarets everywhere
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TheFamilyCat
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Re: 40 points

Post by TheFamilyCat » Sun Jan 01, 2017 5:02 pm

I don't usually overthink these things but as it's a lazy NYD...

4 games we're unlikely to get anything from:

Arse a
City a
Liverpool a
Chelsea h

10 games can realistically hope for points from:

Stoke h
West Brom h
West Ham h
Leicester h
Soton h
Hull a
Swansea a
Sunderland a
Boro a
Watford a

5 games that we could pick up an odd point or two from:

Spurs h
Man U h
Palace a
Bournemouth a
Everton a

15 points should see us safe and I don't see why we can't get 4 wins and 3 draws from the ten games I've picked out.

But the way football works we'll probably lose all of those but beat Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool!

FactualFrank
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Re: 40 points

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Jan 01, 2017 5:21 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote: But the way football works we'll probably lose all of those but beat Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool!
Very true! We've beaten Liverpool and Everton at home, yet struggled to even get a point vs Hull as they were the better side. Football, eh!

ClaretTony
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Re: 40 points

Post by ClaretTony » Sun Jan 01, 2017 6:18 pm

claretspice wrote:But as a note of caution - Norwich were 8 points clear of Sunderland at this stage last season, so the job isn't done yet.
But they were only 3 points clear of the bottom three.

Croydon Claret
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Re: 40 points

Post by Croydon Claret » Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:03 pm

Just been reading some starts for previous seasons. Average points for teams finishing 18th is 35.4.

Average points for 17 place is 38.4

So in an average season 36 is enough to stay up, that's cutting it a bit fine though and it's not guaranteed to be average.

Another 4 wins plus some draws should do it. 15 points means that Sunderland and co need 24 points which is a big ask given that they're crap.

The Pomagne is on ice :D

1968claret
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Re: 40 points

Post by 1968claret » Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:24 pm

We should not count our chickens. However it is interesting to note that the bottom 3 all need to double or nearly double their points gained so far, just to catch our current points tally!

Spijed
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Re: 40 points

Post by Spijed » Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:05 pm

These are the points for the team finishing third from bottom:

15/16 - 37
14/15 - 35
13/14 - 33
12/13 - 36
11/12 - 36
10/11 - 39 (Blackpool got that many!)
09/10 - 30 (Us)
08/09 - 34
07/08 - 36
06/07 - 38

Croydon Claret
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Re: 40 points

Post by Croydon Claret » Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:18 pm

I think this shows that 40, whilst being nice, is more than likely overkill for survival
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kaptin1
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Re: 40 points

Post by kaptin1 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:11 pm

As I said in my opening comment, I think 40 points is well within our reach but that this should be more than enough to see us stay up. I think 36-38 points will be the more realistic requirement for survival.

claretandy
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Re: 40 points

Post by claretandy » Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:05 am

Spijed wrote:These are the points for the team finishing third from bottom:

15/16 - 37
14/15 - 35
13/14 - 33
12/13 - 36
11/12 - 36
10/11 - 39 (Blackpool got that many!)
09/10 - 30 (Us)
08/09 - 34
07/08 - 36
06/07 - 38
Blackpool were 7th at this stage with 27 points, that truly was a one off.

Spijed
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Re: 40 points

Post by Spijed » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:31 pm

There seems to be a correlation between the current points total for the team in 12th place (after 20 games) and the that of the team finishing 3rd from bottom at the end of the season.

In the last ten seasons no team on 23 points or less (in 12th) has required more than 37 points to stop up. (36 depending on goal difference). It could be even less this season.

Obviously when teams from 12th downwards have less points it means those at the top are taking more off those in the bottom half.

So, just another 13 points to make us safe.

Season 12th relegated (3rd)
----------------------------------
15/16 - 26 37
14/15 - 22 35
13/14 - 22 33
12/13 - 25 36
11/12 - 23 36
10/11 - 25 39
09/10 - 23 30
08/09 - 23 34
07/08 - 24 36
06/07 - 25 38

jurek
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Re: 40 points

Post by jurek » Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:34 am

I think 36/37 points might suffice.
38 to be sure.

Spijed
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Re: 40 points

Post by Spijed » Sun May 14, 2017 2:06 pm

Hull can only get 37 points.

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