If it comes to a dog fight to stay up it looks tough for most of our likely competitors, assuming the top end still have something to play for. Indeed, if I could have picked the fixtures I don't think I would change anything.

Arsenal V Everton

Burnley V West Ham United

Chelsea V Sunderland

Hull City V Tottenham Hotspur

Leicester City V Bournemouth

Liverpool V Middlesbrough

Manchester United V Crystal Palace

Southampton V Stoke City

Swansea City V West Bromwich Albion

Watford V Manchester City

Prior to these Middlesbrough have an extremely tough run in.

We couldn't really have wished for a more difficult last day set of fixtures for those likely to be at the bottom. More reasons to be cheerful, I'd say.

Watford on the sliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide

Doesn't matter, beat Southampton and we are safe IMO.

Some of "our rivals" have some extremely difficult up and coming fixtures and I just cant see a 10 point lead being caught.

What would your thoughts be if it was the other way round?

The down by Xmas crew would be in full voice if we had Hull/Swansea/Sunderland points with the up and coming fixtures.

On the other hand, if Chelsea, Spurs or LIverpool still need points, they might have to watch it against already-relegated clubs who will be more relaxed and play with freedom.

Norwich were 8 points clear of Sunderland this time last season but went down. HOWEVER, there are an extra three sides below us this season. They were 15th, we are 12th.

It shows there are far more teams in trouble this season, in comparison to last.

Meaningless. There are always upsets at the end. Remember Wigan winning their last 4 when they looked doomed?

I want us safe by April.

If we have as bad a second half to our season as Norwich had (p 18 w3 d2 l13).. we'd probably drop. Not quite sure why Norwich capitulated so badly but an inexperienced manager wouldn't have helped. I think the difference of having Sean and his staff (who have been there before) will ensure we finish strongly enough to reach the finishing post.

Interesting to see that we are on the same points as Chelsea were!!

Title to the Turf next year then

One thing this season highlights is that there are more teams at the bottom with less points that at the same point last season.

That indicates it's likely that less than 37 points will be required for survival. Newcastle got that many last season (finishing 3rd from bottom).

For example, WBA had 26 in 12th. We've got 23. In between, (16th place) Boro for example have 19. Last year, Bournemouth had 21. In the last relegation spot, Sunderland have 15, Newcastle had 17. So it indicates a 2-3 pt downward shift in the points required at the end of the season.

The final 18 fixtures for us and our relegation rivals (away fixtures in grey)

Spijed wrote:Norwich were 8 points clear of Sunderland this time last season but went down. HOWEVER, there are an extra three sides below us this season. They were 15th, we are 12th.

It shows there are far more teams in trouble this season, in comparison to last.

Probably the reason Norwich went down was that they only took 2 points from their next 10 matches.

Roosterbooster wrote:The final 18 fixtures for us and our relegation rivals (away fixtures in grey)

We've got one of the easier run-ins, if ever there is one in the PL.

Interesting to see that 2015/6 20-game league and compare it to the current (post Spurs v Chelsea) equivalent.
The top 6 this year have 257 points against top 6 of 224 last year. Consequently the rest of the teams below that are squeezed and overall on relatively fewer points this year.
Going backwards, the 4th bottom survival points tallies have been 39, 38, 36, 39, 37 (S'lan, Villa, WBA, S'lan, QPR). Maybe a lower figure this year?

LeadBelly wrote:Interesting to see that 2015/6 20-game league and compare it to the current (post Spurs v Chelsea) equivalent.
The top 6 this year have 257 points against top 6 of 224 last year. Consequently the rest of the teams below that are squeezed and overall on relatively fewer points this year.
Going backwards, the 4th bottom survival points tallies have been 39, 38, 36, 39, 37 (S'lan, Villa, WBA, S'lan, QPR). Maybe a lower figure this year?

Looking at the points that the team finishing 4th from bottom got is irrelevant. You only need to get 1 point more than the team finishing 3rd.

I'm away on holiday by time we play West Ham. My last game of the season will be Bournemouth - assuming I can get a ticket (small ground). We will all be in the holiday mood by May.

We may be mathematically assured of Prem again next season after 3 pts against ManU. That will be a double celebration.

Job done!

UTC

I've decided to add WHU to the list of potential relegation rivals

Spijed wrote:We've got one of the easier run-ins, if ever there is one in the PL.

Amazingly we have everybody but Citeh to play again but it doesn't look scary.
After the Spurs game there is only ManUre to concern us.
One game at a time.