Imploding Charlie

[Damo]

Get stuck in pal
Should be able to kill a few hours with this one

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01 ... edictions/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RingoMcCartney]

Expect to be called an "idiot"

And several graphs that prove beyond doubt that following the famous vote to leave the, dying on its feet, EU. The sky absolutely did fall in!

Don't say you weren't warned!

[JohnMcGreal]

So it turns out that being in the EU and having full access to the single market is good for the economy. Who knew?

It's a shame that people have voted to eventually end this arrangement.

[CnBtruntru]

Pinstickers guide to the economy, OOPS we got that one slightly skew whiff.

[Lancasterclaret]

Great news for the UK*

*hopefully a sign for the future outside the EU**

**which we haven't left yet btw***

***so that might be a factor

[Sidney1st]

So it turns out that being in the EU and having full access to the single market is good for the economy. Who knew?

It's a shame that people have voted to eventually end this arrangement.

Do you know if it's going to be more beneficial to be out of the EU yet?

[Quickenthetempo]

I do like the fact that nobody on this forum has budged an inch on the EU despite months and months of arguing with each other.

[USC]

So is the OP's point that the economy is doing well whilst we are in the EU? Well anyone could have told us that. The question is what will it be like after we leave the EU?!

[dsr]

No, the OP's point is that those economists who told us that a vote to leave the EU would spell instant disaster to the economy, were utterly and indisputably wrong.

They may change their view to tell us that the vote will mean long-term disaster to the UK economy, or they may come round to thinking it won't be disastrous after all. But their initial opinion was wrong.

[dsr]

So it turns out that being in the EU and having full access to the single market is good for the economy. Who knew?

It's a shame that people have voted to eventually end this arrangement.

Over-simplified argument, actually.

In the EU = full access to the EU single market, restricted access (beyond our control) to the rest of the world.
Out of the EU = restricted access to the EU market, potential free access to the rest of the world.

[Damo]

No, the OP's point is that those economists who told us that a vote to leave the EU would spell instant disaster to the economy, were utterly and indisputably wrong.

They may change their view to tell us that the vote will mean long-term disaster to the UK economy, or they may come round to thinking it won't be disastrous after all. But their initial opinion was wrong.

Thank you.
That's a better explanation than I would of given

[biggles]

maybe the OP was giving another example of how the 'experts' got it wrong [again] about the EU vote? perhaps he was trying to even things up by showing how the 'remain' supporters, not only those voting to leave, made unsubstantiated claims about leaving the EU. the merchant .anker was clearly apologising for getting it wrong so he is now saying that things won't be as bad as they told us they would be; but maybe he doesn't realise we havent' achieved Brexit as yet! FCUK EU.

[Spijed]

Out of the EU = restricted access to the EU market, potential free access to the rest of the world.

But does that mean access to better products?

Is the build quality of a Cadillac as good as a BMW or Mercedes for example?

[evensteadiereddie]

Weird.

[Sidney1st]

But does that mean access to better products?

Is the build quality of a Cadillac as good as a BMW or Mercedes for example?

Quite possibly, but in all fairness BMW & Merc have plenty of issues that the general public ignore.
Same with all German cars.

[RalphCoatesComb]

And, the Earth is still turning post-Referendum... amazing !

Just glad we didn't join the Euro. We'd have been well and truly ****** then !

[Spijed]

Quite possibly, but in all fairness BMW & Merc have plenty of issues that the general public ignore.
Same with all German cars.

That was just one example. Will the public be happy to move away from those products they buy now to different versions made in other countries though?

[Sidney1st]

That was just one example. Will the public be happy to move away from those products they buy now to different versions made in other countries though?

They were happy to start buying certain products in the first place when the items were marketed to them, that's what usually drives people to buy certain things.

[dsr]

That was just one example. Will the public be happy to move away from those products they buy now to different versions made in other countries though?

Why would they need to? All that leaving the EU means is that we will have to trade with the EU on the same basis as the rest of the world does. Germany is not going to refuse to sell us cars.

[NottsClaret]

It's a bit of a phoney war anyway this debate. We haven't left yet, and when we do the sun will still rise, people will still go to work or post crap on here etc.

We won't know if it was a bad idea or not until 10 or 15 years down the line, by which time everybody will pretend they voted whichever way is then proven to be the 'right' way. See how many folk were for joining the Euro now? None, who would be so stupid. But I bet there were loads at the time. A bit like the Mail and the Windsors having a thing for Hitler.

[Guich]

As IT is busy, can I step in and say that all you chaps who are steadfastly refusing to panic are all...



Idiots

[ClaretMoffitt]

I do like the fact that nobody on this forum has budged an inch on the EU despite months and months of arguing with each other.

Every thread on brexit can be summed up by this comment.

[lucs86]

I read a FT article yesterday that said the "placid" state of the markets compared to forecasts was because consumers have not stopped spending and economists predicted that they would, as happened when there were warnings of the banking crisis in 2008. Borrowing and spending are now at the highest levels since before 2008. I think it's fair to say not many would have expected borrowing and spending to increase with Brexit. Everyone, even your most prominent Brexiteers, was talking about the short term hit to the economy, so what’s happened to consumer spending is odd.

The other factor is the devalued pound, that's helped the big exporters so they still look good, I don't know if that was in the forecasts or not or more importantly if it’s sustainable or not. Imported stuff is/will be more expensive, maybe this has been absorbed by retailers so far but it should filter through to consumers eventually - maybe that will be the point that consumer spending is affected?

Maybe the confusion, indecision and lack of clarity coming from Government has inadvertently helped for now, because with hardly anyone any the wiser as to if, how or when anything’s going to happen we might as well just wait and see before tightening belts or making decisions.

I feel for the economists, we’re in uncharted territory and their fairly rational forecasts, based on how they thought consumers and the Bank of England would react, haven’t materialised so far. We’ve had 6 months of chaos since the vote and they’re already being discredited. If you don't believe what the economists are saying, who do you believe? Newspaper columnists? Theresa May?

Oh and we've not left yet

[mdd2]

I really do not know what all the "they got it wrong" is all about. We are better off at the moment economically because the £ has lost value boosting manufacturing AND we are full members of the EU and will be for some time to come. Any down turn if there will be will not take place until there is a drop in investment in the UK, companies start to relocate from UK to Ireland etc AND we leave the EU. That the economy is presently strong has got nothing to do with Brexit and its benefits or downside

[Colburn_Claret]

Why would they need to? All that leaving the EU means is that we will have to trade with the EU on the same basis as the rest of the world does. Germany is not going to refuse to sell us cars.

Agree completely, and by the same token they can't refuse to buy our products either. To do so would invoke reciprocal actions that they can afford as little as us.
They can rattle their sabres for the pawns in Brussels, we should just give them the finger and carry on as usual.

[LongsideFacingUp]

I really do not know what all the "they got it wrong" is all about. We are better off at the moment economically because the £ has lost value boosting manufacturing AND we are full members of the EU and will be for some time to come. Any down turn if there will be will not take place until there is a drop in investment in the UK, companies start to relocate from UK to Ireland etc AND we leave the EU. That the economy is presently strong has got nothing to do with Brexit and its benefits or downside

Because the Bank of England predicted there would be a large downturn in our economy immediately after a vote for the UK to leave the EU. Even though article 50 isn't triggered immediately and we would still technically be in the EU.

This prediction was clearly way off.

[claretdom]

It is a shame those who use the defence of "we haven't left yet" didn't also hold the same thought process in the summer when telling everyone of the ending of this country almost overnight following the result.

[summitclaret]

Some of you are missing the point of the recent admissions.

Many believe that Camaron and Osbourne lent on people to talk up the pessimistic statements.

I believe that the majority of voters wanted control over issues such as immigration, law making and justice, even at the possible expense of less economic growth. Politicians that don't get this are in for a rough ride.

[mdd2]

Because the Bank of England predicted there would be a large downturn in our economy immediately after a vote for the UK to leave the EU. Even though article 50 isn't triggered immediately and we would still technically be in the EU.

This prediction was clearly way off.

More fools those who believed that when the same BofE were worse than Blind Pugh when it came to seeing the Crash of 2008.
Not forgetting the sack cloth and ashes that was predicted following Black Wednesday in 1992. Didn't 16 years of economic growth follow?

[NottsClaret]

The only economists' prediction you can put your house on is 'in the long run we're all dead'. Brexit isn't changing that one.

[Paul Waine]

I really do not know what all the "they got it wrong" is all about. We are better off at the moment economically because the £ has lost value boosting manufacturing AND we are full members of the EU and will be for some time to come. Any down turn if there will be will not take place until there is a drop in investment in the UK, companies start to relocate from UK to Ireland etc AND we leave the EU. That the economy is presently strong has got nothing to do with Brexit and its benefits or downside

Hi mdd2, from what I've heard/read investment isn't down since Brexit referendum - though, if these reports are correct, it may not a vote in favour of leaving EU. I don't know if the investments are split between (a) local investment - i.e. firm in UK and market in UK and investment indifferent to EU membership; (b) new investment in UK from outside (non-EU) investors; (c) new investment in UK from EU (non-UK) investors; (d) investments that have continued post-referendum, because the cost of changing/cancelling are bigger than cost of continuing to invest.

So, my view, too early to determine the investment trends. (Longer term stats should even out the investment distinctions I mention above).

One thing I believe we can say with some confidence: there won't be many London banks moving to Paris now that the French gov't has banned staff from responding to work emails outside office hours (which are already 35 hour max per week).

[Lancasterclaret]

I believe that the majority of voters wanted control over issues such as immigration, law making and justice, even at the possible expense of less economic growth.

Nah, they want all that plus economic growth. Lets hope that Brexit can deliver that.

[Lancasterclaret]

One thing I believe we can say with some confidence: there won't be many London banks moving to Paris now that the French gov't has banned staff from responding to work emails outside office hours (which are already 35 hour max per week).

Paul, you come across as a bright chap. Just how likely is that to happen really?

[thelifeofbrian]

Some of you are missing the point of the recent admissions.

Many believe that Camaron and Osbourne lent on people to talk up the pessimistic statements.

I believe that the majority of voters wanted control over issues such as immigration, law making and justice, even at the possible expense of less economic growth. Politicians that don't get this are in for a rough ride.

I agree with the above comments- good post.

[Spijed]

I believe that the majority of voters wanted control over issues such as immigration, law making and justice, even at the possible expense of less economic growth. Politicians that don't get this are in for a rough ride.

Not a single person who voted for Brexit will be prepared to make financial sacrifices (job losses, lower income, rising prices etc.) for the sake of controlled immigration, full control of UK law etc. if it came to that.

[LongsideFacingUp]

Not a single person who voted for Brexit will be prepared to make financial sacrifices (job losses, lower income, rising prices etc.) for the sake of controlled immigration, full control of UK law etc. if it came to that.

Brexit voter here. I would.

[Spijed]

Brexit voter here. I would.

So you'd be prepared to lose your job or home, basically put yourself in poverty, if need be, for full control of UK borders?

Why?

[LongsideFacingUp]

So you'd be prepared to lose your job or home, basically put yourself in poverty, if need be, for full control of UK borders?

Why?

No I wouldn't.

[claretdom]

That was a swift jump from lower income to being prepared to lose your job or house.

Clearly there is no inbetween.

[Spijed]

That was a swift jump from lower income to being prepared to lose your job or house.

Clearly there is no inbetween.

In the scheme of things it's the same scenario. There is no-way on earth people will be prepared to take a pay cut unless it affects them directly.

[duncandisorderly]

Financial sacrifices to poverty in two posts. That's good going even for you, spijed.

[claretdom]

I guess you have moved on now from not being able to buy a BMW to losing your house.

Neither will happen, stop worrying.

[Spijed]

Financial sacrifices to poverty in two posts. That's good going even for you, spijed.

Again, there is no difference in two when it comes to the mindset. No one will be prepared to lose any money because it will have no direct effect on them.

Ok, so you'd be prepared to take a pay cut for what, so that we can have better control of people coming over from France, for example?

They, and people from Spain, Germany, Italy etc.

[ClaretMoffitt]

Brexit voter here. I would.

Same here

[Spijed]

I guess you have moved on now from not being able to buy a BMW to losing your house.

Neither will happen, stop worrying.

I was replying to post #28 btw.

And as I've pointed out, no one will give a damn about immigration if it has any effect on them.

People may want controlled immigration, but like a NIMBY, only if it has no effect on them.

[nil_desperandum]

Surely it should be no surprise that in the short-term before we trigger Article 50, and way ahead of any type of Brexit, that the economy should do pretty well?
It is for the same reasons that immigration was always going to spike.
The reasons should be obvious. If you were thinking you might come to Britain, would you wait till we leave the EU and risk not being allowed?
So using the same logic: Would you buy a car now, or leave it until next year or beyond when the price might go up or the choice might be limited? The same principle applies in many areas of the economy..
There has also been a boost to shares caused by the strengthening dollar relative to the pound.
Next year will be a more realistic indicator as the effects of the weak pound most likely impact on inflation and the cost of living.
So far as the actual economic "Brexit effect" is concerned, it's virtually impossible to predict how it will turn out, (especially since there is no clarity about the single market / customs union etc)., and as Notts Claret stated earlier, from an economic perspective, it will realistically be 15 to 20 years before analysts will be able to say with any clarity whether the average man is better or worse off.

[mdd2]

It is not the folk coming over from Benelux countries, Sweden, Denmark Ireland France, Germany Italy Spain and Portugal that I see contributing j**k s**t to our economy but from those EEC countries from Eastern Europe, but other posters may have a different take on this.

[dsr]

The global economy doesn't work like that. It may be that on average, people's pay relative to inflation will rise at a lower (or higher) rate than it would have without Brexit. But as that will be impossible to measure and very hard to tell the difference if it could be measured, that wouldn't influence anyone's vote. I dare say Cameron, had he thought he could get away with it, would have produced a calculator that told people what their salary would be in 5 years' time with Brexit or without; but even he couldn't swing those figures and make them real.

People who knew or believed they would lose their jobs without tariff-free trade with the EU, would have voted Remain. But people who thought it wouldn't make too much difference either way (the majority, I would think) would feel free to vote Brexit and chance the minor, immeasurable hit.

[Damo]

Same here

Me too

[claretandy]

Not a single person who voted for Brexit will be prepared to make financial sacrifices (job losses, lower income, rising prices etc.) for the sake of controlled immigration, full control of UK law etc. if it came to that.

I would.