thought I would get something up early...it looks a beast of a course at over 8000 yards....par 5s look like 3 shotters...I love watching golf on genuinely tough courses...not had a look at full field yet but I think the really long hitters may be over bet next week....they will still struggle to get to the par 5s in 2 shots so may not have their usual advantage....an exception could be dj who although long does tend to hit plenty of fairways.....pictures I have seel of course suggest its almost like a scottish course with thick gorse....going to be some car crash holes next week....utc.

Cheers Happy.

Yep US Open revel in making this championship the toughest of all the majors. Personally whilst I still love it - in recent years I think they have gone over the top and some of the courses they have chosen have been either too difficult or not in great condition. I don`t like the other extreme of easy golf and the winner finishing on 25 under as this just plays into the hands of the big hitters. I think the British Open and Augusta just about get the balance perfect and obviously the weather conditions in UK can make ours really tough.

Going to have a longer look at US Open today - been looking at some stats this week and early view is that betting wise its very difficult ! I think the chance of a first time winner is greater here than it is at Augusta or British Open so could be a long odds winner if we can find it.

Course could be too brutal for some of the older guys - there`s usually at least one of the quality senior players does well in the majors at ridiculously long odds - great bets for top ten as they usually fade a bit in last round.

dog sent me this hole by hole course guide
worth a look

https://erinhills.com/golf/hole-by-hole/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This course might not be as long as you think Happy. See comments below :

"But these comments made at The Masters in April by Mike Davis may prove to be very revealing when it comes to defining just how Erin Hills will play and what the target winning score might be, "All things being equal, I think the scoring will be lower at Erin Hills than at most other sites. The course should set-up at between 7,700 and 7,800 yards, but in reality the golf course actually will play shorter than most U.S. Opens. Shinnecock in 2018 will play longer as it will be a 7,500 yard Par 70. Not to mention that the fairways at Erin Hills are very generous and bouncy. Those who report that this will be over the top distance-wise, they don't get it. The clubs that the pros will hit into these greens, I promise you, will be less than some Opens."

Interesting tvc
thanks for that...all helps to try and get the right profile of player...not looked at weather yet....hoping it blows.

Jon Rahm for me.

The Open Championship is always my favourite followed by the US Open but this will be a real tester no doubt.

Of the elite players in the betting John Rahm has form – he does seem to get a bit steamed up on occasion – that’s not always a negative. Also Fowler. Justin Thomas hinted at a return to good form last week also. Spieth can argue a case for but he’s been hot and cold. I won’t be backing any on the pre-play odds. Fowler I like for this also looking at others to pick out some chances at longer odds

Probably then the 8000 yrds ref is what it can play to in the wind. The par 5’s are long though – and given it’s the US Open they won’t be setting things up on easy side. Dry conditions and the fairways will run and play shorter – what will be key is how far they cut back the rough from fairway and green – Johnson won by 3 shots at -4 last year with only 4 players breaking par. I’m expecting similar this year. One of those was Shane Lowry – excellent wind play and drives it very well. Noted Daniel Summerhays who played very well last week on the PGA tour coming close to winning. He was T8 last year and around 280/1 on Betfair

On the age and experience – helps to have had a few cracks at it I’m looking at players that have gone well in this event before and have recent form. Also the ability to play in wind – from what I read blustery conditions are rarely not a factor at this course. Lowry, Brandon Grace, Oosthuizen & Kisner fit that. Sure more of the Euro Tour players will fit too - I need to check out the stats on those entered – Hatton, Fleetwood, Fisher, Fitzpatrick

Also as its hilly (as name suggests) I expect lots of uneven lies – like Augusta. Think it was day 2 at Augusta this year that had the strong wind so maybe those that went well that day could be a pointer

I will be looking at the Total Driving stat closely which combines distance and accuracy of drives – for me heavier emphasis on the accuracy

thursday morning thunder storms forecast....all 4 days wind expected to be 11-12 mph which over there is like a gail....I will definitely be having a few quid on Lowry in the win and top 10 market...utc.

Phil Mickleson could yet still play after attending his daughters graduation ceremony..

suppose if the early thunderstorms do arrive they may suspend play.....Lowry between 80 and 85 on betfair...quite a cheap bet......sounding like early or late starters on thursday could have a significant advantage depending how you view things.

SkyBet paying 8 places

one of the many accounts I cannot get more than £2.50 on with quickenthetempo...a good concession if the golfer is top priced with them....personally I use betfair as big priced golfers usually quite a bit better priced....utc.

Don't know why course designers just to longer and longer to toughen them up. The 10th at the belfry, 17th at sawgrass, postage stamp at royal troon all cause chaos yet they are a tiny par 4 and 3s respectively. Creative thinking will make the game more entertaining. The longer they make the holes, technology just improves so they can hit it further

So trying to pick out some fits and value… I use the following heavy on the driving accuracy and recent performance at The Memorial Tournament 2 weeks ago (seen as US Open warm up and similar conditions). Typically organizers want the winner to be on even par – but some reports suggesting could be better scoring somewhere between -5 & -10. Waiting on weather conditions for a wind forecast –gusting on top of moderate and that would make it harder. The course is not tree lined and seems exposed to wind. Rain would make greens softer

I also have a notion that it may favour early starters on the Thursday – weather/wind conditions will determine plus possibility of firming greens. Won’t know for sure until until later perhaps – but I go with this

• Driving Accuracy
• Performance at the Memorial Tournament
• Recent / Season Form
• US Open previous
• Approach accuracy
• Previous form in Major's
• Wind ability

Not suggesting you back all of these more giving some options where I see value and a good fit…. Use Top 10/20 prices on oddschecker.com for best odds

Main Bets (Betfair odds unless stated – a massive difference)
Fowler 23/1 - He ticks all the boxes needed for this driving accuracy, approaches, form, 2nd at Memorial, also tremendous putter. Early starter. Win bet
Day - In play bet. Late Thursday starter - check the odds after first round. Day is the stand out big gun with good fit and form (Rahm has form also but not sure it’s the Major for him). Day wasn’t far off at Memorial after a poor first round. His record here is very consistent. Last 6 years T8 T9 T4 T2 T59 2 . Late starter
Dufner 70/1 - Shocked I’m backing Duffers but he was outstanding for 2 rds at Memorial with 65 & 65. Then he fell apart in rd 3 and then somehow recovered to win - I really admire his guts to do that despite clear problems on the short putts. I chance him at 70/1 that he is stronger for that win and tee to green plays the same. Last 5 US Opens T8 T18 CUT T4 T4 , Early starter. Win bet
Summerhays 280/1 - Another from Memorial he led going into the final round. Game in good shape was T8 last year and a great price at 280/1 win or look for Top 10 price. Late starter
Fleetwood 230/1 Driving Accuracy 11th. From Southport so must have breeze know-how. Leading GIR on euro tour. Early starter. Of the Brits he looks a good fit at a good price 230/1 or Top 10

I like Lowry also (early starter) - happy’s tip – he can go well in windy conditions and T2 last year

There are bags of value outsiders that can go well – blustery conditions on this course could shake things right up – here are some more that come out as matches (some in particular driving accuracy) to check out. Betfair for win prices e/w or shop around for top 20 on the longer odds
Lingmerth 280/1 – T15 Memorial T12 last time. Accuracy, approaches (Early tee)
Lovemark 440/1 – T18 last appearance. Contended at Memorial T20 shout (Early tee)
Stricker 170/1 – Driving accuracy, Approaches. Great record here 17/19 cuts made. 4 top 10’s. Tremendous putter and scrambler. (Negative – driving distance / late start)

Wasn’t sure about posting these 2 up as they are very much unknown outsiders… but I have taken them on - a couple of debutantes that fit stats - Top 20 bets not suggesting they have a chance of winning
Aiken 1000/1 – Straight hitter on Euro Tour. SA guy top 30 driving accuracy 6th GIR and 5th Scoring average. Seems a steady type was T25 here 2 years ago. 20/1 for a top 20 with bet365 (early starter)
Rai 1000/1 – Euro Tour Driving Accuracy % Rank 5th. Promising Englishman - came through Qualifying. Looking through recent forms couple of wins multiple top 10's/20's and not many MC's. 22/1 BefFred for Top 20. (early starter)

Other guys to watch I have marked as solid wind players / ball strikers if it goes that way – Oosthuizen, Grace, Kisner, Horschell, Perez . All of these I mark also as non-bottlers

One more thing to mention for In play bets. Need to be up with pace after round 1. Only one previous winner has been more than 4 shots away after the first day

good stuff dog
that last stat...4 off the lead worth remembering for sure.

I like to pick four at a price over 50/1 and hope one of them is in with a chance come Sunday. It seems to work and I've had a good few results in the last few years. My four for this week are: Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Billy Horschel & Shane Lowry ...............fingers now firmly crossed

my four are
Lowry and Dufner at 66/1 plus....and 6 or 7/1 for top 10 finish.
Day 16/1 win bet...Fowler 23/1 win bet.

and I have had a decent bet on Day to beat Mcilroy in a tournament match bet @ 6/5...simply because I think Day should be favourite....if this bet clicks it covers all the others.

happyclaret17 wrote: that last stat...4 off the lead worth remembering for sure.

The exception to this was Webb Simpson in 2012 - 6 shots off the lead

Was a similar trend a few weeks back at the Byron Nelson "Every winner since 1996 has been inside the top-ten at halfway" - This trend held out just when the above mentioned Billy Horschel beat Day in the play-off. Had Day won the play-off he would have bucked that trend

Weather forecasts are varied by websites for windspeed - but even spread through Thurs/Fri. I had read one that suggested the worst of the wind would be Thursday afternoon and Friday morning... but I'm not seeing that now. Have to wait and see - what is consistent is that rain is expected

LifeafterRobbie - of those only Patrick Reed has been struggling lately (by his own standards) - was suggested miss-aligned clubs were the cause but seems more than that. I watched him in a featured group at the Memorial and he was ok but not fully firing

Grace is my main bet this year.

Outside bets are Molinari ; kisner ; Lowry ; Hatton and Noren.

Of the top few favourites I like Fowler this year.

Some of the fairways are 100 yards wide I heard
. Be harder finding the rough than the fairway lol.

they look pretty tight on the course guide I posted....it would be a rarity for a us open course to have easy driving holes....usually its a case of accuracy and to a lesser extent length.

just seen mcilroy interviewred and he is saying the fairways are wider than a usaul us open course at around 60 yards but there are some wider so its definetely not a typical us open set up....it is pretty breezy though and so the course wont play as wide....I reckon the wind is easily 20 mph plus.

Similar to the Memorial Tournament … that was a strong but fair test. Fairways were also generous but if you didn’t find the fairway then the thick rough was a big factor a) to get the ball out and b) hold the green if you could make a shot. The successful players over the 4 days avoided the rough by playing straight or with strategic placement off the tee

A difference here to Memorial seems to be around the green. It appears cut back more here from raised greens – could make a difference to the type of shot needed if you don’t find them. Also the course is not tree lined – it’s more open to the wind

good point with the trees dog...every mph of wind on this course will count....I wish there was a market for highest score on a hole...I would be guessing double figures...cannot see too many balls being fond in that really long stuff and even if it is found it could be unplayable....mcilroy drifting now in the match bet wift jason day...looks like plenty of others perhaps think he isnt well prepared for this either.

Skybet are having a few flash boosts.

Is this any value?

D Johnson, Day, Spieth, or McIlroy to be Wire to Wire Winner (12 -1pm 20/1 boosted to 40/1 Must be leading every round at the end of play.

well it doesnt appeal to me Quicken...all they have done is boosted a crap price to a slightly more realistic one...leading a grueling event like this all 4 days I would want 10/1 plus without naming a player personally.

How come sky aren't showing the golf live until 6pm?

Be contract issue.

If you have access to TSN you can watch live until 4pm then fox sports til 6pm then sky

Have got a fiver each way on Justin Rose at 25s. If he can get himself into contention will be quietly confident with his experience at Augusta a few weeks ago.

Rory has got egg on his face a little today after the way he has driven.Good rounds from Casey and Fleetwood.

Well I expected little from rory today given his club changes and lack of match practice....but Jason Day with 2 triple bogeys was unexpected...only 1 shot between them so the match bet is in the balance....I think I will be treating this us open as a 1 off after seeing the 1st round and how the scoring went....definitely not going to eliminate players from more than 4 back due to the diversity in scoring highlighted today.....incredible stuff from Fowler and I can see Casey being right in the mix all week as his ball striking is so good....his weakness is his putting under the gun on a sunday.

I think that the course will be set up a lot harder today if the weather forecast is good...the organisers will not like so many under par scores.
Watch out for Rose and Westwood they will be in the mix as well as Casey and Fleetwood

I like where Lowry is on 2 under...if the weather becomes dodgy and the pins trickier I can see him loitering around the top of the leaderboard all week....the only problem with Fowler and Casey is backing up such good rounds....when players like dj...rory and Day are made to look like handicappers it puts into context just how tough this course could be at the weekend.....

Casey is , as you say striking the ball beautifully.If he can hold his nerve I really do think it could be his turn for a major.

I have backed Casey at 8/1 this morning ..... simply because I can see him shortening in the betting and he has a potentially favourable early tee time today....he bottled it on the greens last time in contention but his long game was fine.

happyclaret17 wrote:I have backed Casey at 8/1 this morning ..... simply because I can see him shortening in the betting and he has a potentially favourable early tee time today....he bottled it on the greens last time in contention but his long game was fine.

Backed him 3 weeks ago @ 50/1 - long way to go yet and the course will get much harder.

Not convinced about Casey , only won once on US tour, gets into loads of good positions and doesn't convert them into wins. Wouldn't be surprised if Garcia won back to back majors.

thats my point slw...I dont expect him to win...I expect him to blow it....but by using betfair and backing at 8/1 I could easily see him trading a lot lot shorter between now and sunday....will take a profit on the trade.

surprised how well some scored yesterday,think if you are in the top ten right next now if you can follow it up with a even round your bang there.Happy just wondered if you could do us a favour and pick some horses for musselborough tomorrow please? We are on a trip up now to Edinburgh for the weekend,be much appreciated if you can thank you

He reminds of matt kuchar, a comfort zone player. If he does win fair play to him but id be surprised.

kuchar is just a happy loser...absolutely frightened to death of winning...Westwood unfortunately the same but without the silly grin....really not sure what it is with Casey but has a habit of talking himself up prior to a final round....possibly better off doing it rather than talking about it.....ball striking wise though there are few better if any.

bfc
I will take a look tonight/tomorrow...will post 1 or 2 from muss for you....hopefully have them up by tomorrow at 1 pm if I dont get chance later tonight.

Casey has been consistently good on the US tour for the last few years now.

His ball striking his excellent - his short game can let him down when he is up there on the leaderboard.

Hard to say why he has not managed to win more tournaments given how many times he has been in contention. Think it is a combination of things - nerves, self doubt, playing the wrong shot etc.

I don't think he has the chip on his shoulder he had when he was a youngster anymore. He seems calmer and happier with his game now.

Would not be surprised if he won this major with how well he struck the ball yesterday.

The long stuff looks brutal here and I think most players will spend some time in it this week - for Casey it will be a matter of taking his medicine and not letting it ruin the rest of his round rather than think "here we go again"

Thanks happy

Casey is built like Popeye... the rough and long fescue don't make any difference to him

There's an official stream here for featured groups on the morning play - seems not to need VPN or anything. Before Sky coverage starts

http://www.usopen.com/watch/live.html

Looks like casey thinks its sunday...had a birdie...a triple bogey and 2 bogeys so far....dear oh dear.

Don't know what it is with casey, maybe he doesn't want to win. A punters nightmare..

a brilliant comeback today with 5 birdies in a row....I think he probably wants to win too much though.....just hope he keeps calm and doesnt go ott with press.

here you go bfc1984 ...tips for musselburgh.
1 35 Shobrom
2 05 Rasheeq
2 35 Khamaary
3 10 Gamesome
3 45 Great Fighter
4 20 Magic Journey
4 55 My Girl Maisie
5 30 Popsies Joy