How many more points to secure 7th?

[UpTheClaretsFCBK]

I said 52-55 about a month ago.

West Brom
Watford
Chelsea
Leicester
Stoke
Brighton
Arsenal
Bournemouth

I think it’s well within our grasp with those games left.

[Chester Perry]

22 will guarantee that is the lowest we will finish (less if we beat/draw against Leicester)

[The Enclosure]

one more than Arsenal.

[Sutton-Claret]

Looking forward to the 6 pointer at Arsenal

[MACCA]

12 points should do it if 1 of the victories is against Leicester.

[moaninclaret]

The Leicester game is the one we would have to win, looking at the remaining fixtures i think 51, 52 should be good enough, if we get the result against Leicester i think we can definetley finish in seventh

[pureclaret]

22 points guarantees that or even higher

[JohnMac]

1 more tham Leicester will do!

[Spijed]

I've got a feeling that we'll finish 7th, only for Leicester to win the F.A.Cup!

[Guich]

Are we safe yet?

[bfcmik]

Are we safe yet?

Not according to the 'Magic Numbers' we aren't quite. Though in reality the answer is ABSOLUTELY

[ClaretTony]

Are we safe yet?

Not mathematically but we'd create a record if we went down now. West Ham hold the record in a 20 team league, they went down with 42 points in 2002/03 season.

[Spike]

Not mathematically but we'd create a record if we went down now. West Ham hold the record in a 20 team league, they went down with 42 points in 2002/03 season.

Too many teams below us to play each other. I will show my arse in Wetherspoons window if we go down ( used to be woolworths back in the day!)

[Spike]

we have averaged 1.4 points per game ever through our sticky spell. 10 games should therefore yield at least 14 points!

Heinz variety -57 points mimimum

[ClaretTony]

we have averaged 1.4 points per game ever through our sticky spell. 10 games should therefore yield at least 14 points!

Heinz variety -57 points mimimum

your maths is very good other than we've only got 8 games left

[Lancasterclaret]

I have absolutely no idea, but 3 points v Leicester will go a long way to securing it.

[ontario claret]

Why are you worried about 7th? 7th gets us nothing. To me, it's all about passing the Arse-nal, and a guaranteed spot in Europe.

[Paul Waine]

Are we safe yet?

Not mathematically but we'd create a record if we went down now. West Ham hold the record in a 20 team league, they went down with 42 points in 2002/03 season.

Not according to the 'Magic Numbers' we aren't quite. Though in reality the answer is ABSOLUTELY

I'm pretty sure, if someone has the time to do it, we can show that with teams from 12th downwards - 33 points, 10 below Clarets - still having to play other teams at the bottom that there are at least three of these clubs that can't get to 43 points.

What we now need is a magic number table that shows points we need for 6th or 7th.

UTC

[cricketfieldclarets]

Before West Ham I said we would get 14 more points. You would like to think we could get another 11 at least and if we do that should be enough if we beat Leicester.

[nil_desperandum]

As Paul Waine says above, I'm pretty sure that we are mathematically safe.
At present all the bottom 3 can catch us, but I don't think that there are enough points available in total for all the teams below us to push us down into 18th place, since they will all be taking points from each other.

[ClaretTony]

I'm pretty sure, if someone has the time to do it, we can show that with teams from 12th downwards - 33 points, 10 below Clarets - still having to play other teams at the bottom that there are at least three of these clubs that can't get to 43 points.

What we now need is a magic number table that shows points we need for 6th or 7th.

UTC

Not the case yet, if we were to lose every game then we could still, mathematically, be relegated. I don't think it will take more than a couple more games though.

[maidenover]

Too many teams below us to play each other. I will show my arse in Wetherspoons window if we go down ( used to be woolworths back in the day!)

Burton's window I thought it was.

[nil_desperandum]

Not the case yet, if we were to lose every game then we could still, mathematically, be relegated. I don't think it will take more than a couple more games though.

Out of interest, have you got some sort of analysis to prove this?. I really don't think that there are enough points available in the the next 8 games for 11 of the 13 teams below us to get to 44 points.
Every time any team below us plays each other then one of them loses 3 points or they both lose 2 each.
It would take a freak set of results now for the third bottom club to get over 40 points but I'm not sure that 44 is statistically achievable.

[deanothedino]

Out of interest, have you got some sort of analysis to prove this?. I really don't think that there are enough points available in the the next 8 games for 11 of the 13 teams below us to get to 44 points.
Every time any team below us plays each other then one of them loses 3 points or they both lose 2 each.
It would take a freak set of results now for the third bottom club to get over 40 points but I'm not sure that 44 is statistically achievable.

There is mathematically, there isn't realistically. If for the remainder of the season the lower placed side (as of today) won every match, with the exception of us, then if we lost all our remaining matches we'd finish 19th. 18th would be WBA and 20th Everton. Unbelieveably, in this scenario Southampton would finish 6th.

[nil_desperandum]

There is mathematically, there isn't realistically. If for the remainder of the season the lower placed side (as of today) won every match, with the exception of us, then if we lost all our remaining matches we'd finish 19th. 18th would be WBA and 20th Everton. Unbelieveably, in this scenario Southampton would finish 6th.

I'm not sure how you work that out?
Have you got a source?
On what basis can you predict Southampton to finish 6th?

[deanothedino]

I'm not sure how you work that out?
Have you got a source?
On what basis can you predict Southampton to finish 6th?

https://thefishy.co.uk/calc.php

Select all teams in the league, predict Burnley to lose every game, predict all other games to be won by the lowest placed team as of today.

Obviously, neither of those scenarios will happen but they could and therefore mathematically we could be relegated.

[nil_desperandum]

https://thefishy.co.uk/calc.php

Select all teams in the league, predict Burnley to lose every game, predict all other games to be won by the lowest placed team as of today.

Obviously, neither of those scenarios will happen but they could and therefore mathematically we could be relegated.

Interesting, but Southampton would finish 7th, Arsenal 6th.
As you say we would be joint bottom on 43 with Everton, and would need 45 to be safe. (Unless I've made an error).

[ClaretTony]

Out of interest, have you got some sort of analysis to prove this?. I really don't think that there are enough points available in the the next 8 games for 11 of the 13 teams below us to get to 44 points.
Every time any team below us plays each other then one of them loses 3 points or they both lose 2 each.
It would take a freak set of results now for the third bottom club to get over 40 points but I'm not sure that 44 is statistically achievable.

It would certainly take a freak set of results but mathematically it is still possible and comfortably so. But those freak results would require us to virtually lose every game and all the bottom teams start beating the top teams.

[nil_desperandum]

It would certainly take a freak set of results but mathematically it is still possible and comfortably so. But those freak results would require us to virtually lose every game and all the bottom teams start beating the top teams.

How "comfortably so"?
Using the chart and methodology above it shows that even with the most impossible set of results ever we would only need 2 more points to be mathematically safe.
The bottom teams would have to beat all the top teams with no exceptions - nothing less than 3 points each game against the top sides would suffice, with us only requiring 2.
(A draw at WBA could see us Mathematically safe I believe if most of the teams below us lose).

[deanothedino]

Interesting, but Southampton would finish 7th, Arsenal 6th.
As you say we would be joint bottom on 43 with Everton, and would need 45 to be safe. (Unless I've made an error).

I may have made a mistake with one of the Southampton or Arsenal results then, I wasn't being too careful about picking the lower side as it was getting a bit boring!

[nil_desperandum]

I may have made a mistake with one of the Southampton or Arsenal results then, I wasn't being too careful about picking the lower side as it was getting a bit boring!

I think you were almost spot on, but i think you either forgot to give Arsenal the 3 points for beating us, or the 3 for beating Man Utd.
That takes them out of Southampton's reach.

[Paul Waine]

How "comfortably so"?
Using the chart and methodology above it shows that even with the most impossible set of results ever we would only need 2 more points to be mathematically safe.
The bottom teams would have to beat all the top teams with no exceptions - nothing less than 3 points each game against the top sides would suffice, with us only requiring 2.
(A draw at WBA could see us Mathematically safe I believe if most of the teams below us lose).

I've done a "quick and dirty" look at the remaining fixtures, and points required to reach 44 points (1 above Clarets) and who the opponents are:

WBA - win 8 from 8, including 3 games against other teams (current) 12th downwards and 3 against top 6;
Stoke - win 5 plus 2 additional points (2 draws or 1 more win), 3 v 12th and below, 3 top 6;
Palace - win 5 plus 2 additional points (2 draws or 1 more win), 4 v 12th and below, 1 top 6;
Soton - win 5 plus 1 draw, 3 v 12th and below, 3 top 6;
WHU - win 4 plus 2 addn pts, 2 v 12th and below, 4 top 6;

and so on.

Maybe it's a little odd the way the fixtures have fallen, but on average the bottom teams have got more games to play against the top 6 teams that they do against other teams fighting relegation around them. So, though on form, it's going to take some "very surprising results" for all but two of the "bottom" teams to get at least 44 points - and Burnley to lose all their remaining games - it remains mathematically possible.

So, I'm wrong on this occasion - just as I was when I predicted (back at the end of Nov, I think) that we'd be "safe" before the end of Feb.

No matter, 2 more England call ups for our team. What more do we need?

UTC

[lucs86]

Anyone else a bit apprehensive that the more we stand out the more likely we are to be raided come summer? We're 99% safe now and it would be incredible if we got into Europe via 7th, but if 7th isn't Europe I wouldn't mind it if we had a crap end to the season and finished bottom half rather than 'best of the rest'. It might turn out better for us in terms of holding the squad together.

If we have a stonking end to the season Dyche could easily win manager of the year and put himself on more vacancy shortlists. If JBG keeps it up with all the assists and has a good World Cup there will be a lot more than Newcastle, Leicester and Southampton sniffing round. Tarks and Pope amongst others will have their suitors, Defour could easily have his head turned for a bit more glamour. I want us to keep all our best players but we're a small fish in this pond and the more noise and plaudits we generate the more our top performers might perceive they've outgrown us and have their heads turned.

Finishing the season with a whimper, doing what everyone's been expecting we'd do all season and sinking into the crowd, it might just get us through summer under the radar, squad retained, probably improved, with a realistic prospect of improving, gradually, again next season. Now our objective is secured lets tone it down and get ready for next season! Anyone with me?

[tiger76]

Maybe but given Gray and Keane aren't setting the world on fire after their big money moves
Many players may see that you can be called up for international duty even if playing for an unfashionable club
Another important fact is we can offer regular game time and possibly European football.

In recent years arguably only Trippier has improved has career by moving on.

[Paul Waine]

Anyone else a bit apprehensive that the more we stand out the more likely we are to be raided come summer? We're 99% safe now and it would be incredible if we got into Europe via 7th, but if 7th isn't Europe I wouldn't mind it if we had a crap end to the season and finished bottom half rather than 'best of the rest'. It might turn out better for us in terms of holding the squad together.

If we have a stonking end to the season Dyche could easily win manager of the year and put himself on more vacancy shortlists. If JBG keeps it up with all the assists and has a good World Cup there will be a lot more than Newcastle, Leicester and Southampton sniffing round. Tarks and Pope amongst others will have their suitors, Defour could easily have his head turned for a bit more glamour. I want us to keep all our best players but we're a small fish in this pond and the more noise and plaudits we generate the more our top performers might perceive they've outgrown us and have their heads turned.

Finishing the season with a whimper, doing what everyone's been expecting we'd do all season and sinking into the crowd, it might just get us through summer under the radar, squad retained, probably improved, with a realistic prospect of improving, gradually, again next season. Now our objective is secured lets tone it down and get ready for next season! Anyone with me?

Hi lucs86, don't worry...about a thing....cos, every little things...going to be alright.

It doesn't say much about Premier League scouting networks - or our players' agents - if what Sean Dyche has achieved at Burnley can go unnoticed. Most teams will have had two opportunities to see how Burnley play and perform "up close."

Keeping the team together is all about the work Sean Dyche does with the team, and all about the work that the board does to manage the clubs finances and spend wisely and well.

UTC

[dsr]

This site

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Burnley.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

works out probabilities of relegation based on running millions of simulations with estimated results, with probabilities of each result based on performances so far. Since last weekend it has run 795 million simulations, and Burnley have been relegated in none of them. Not a single chance in 795 million. 142,000 of those simulations are rigged (for testing purposes, apparently) to show Burnley losing all 8 games - even in those 142,000, we don't get relegated a single time.

I think we're safe.

According to those simulations, we need 53 points for a better than evens chance of finishing 7th; 56 points will give us a 90% chance of 7th or above.

[BroadIslandClaret]

I said 52-55 about a month ago.

West Brom
Watford
Chelsea
Leicester
Stoke
Brighton
Arsenal
Bournemouth

I think it’s well within our grasp with those games left.

10 points there so that puts us on 53. Leicester are going to get 11 points from their final games leaving them on 51 points. It could well come down to the last game of the season which SHOULD bode well for us as we face the Cherries whilst Leicester are away to Spurs.

[NRC]

If y’all can be assed I did the calculation for the bottom three, taking into account games playing each other and us..... the answer Is there if you seek it

[Claretforever]

I think we’ll need 54 points and to avoid defeat against Leicester. Maybe a win against them.

They’ve not got a bad run in have Leicester, with 2 of the top 6 like ourselves.