• Why is our death rate so high for CV19?

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:50 pm**

As you can see from the numbers below, our death rate seems excessively high compared to that of other countries. We have far more deaths than the likes of Germany, who have nearly 10,000 more active cases than we do. Our numbers look to be well above the other averages. Yes I know Germany as a specific example have more ventilators and ICU's but that should not matter until we reach our capacity and we have not done so yet so not having enough vents and ICU's is certainly not the answer.

Are we just unlucky? Are we better at finding these deaths at post Morton? Or is something else going on?

I do not have the answer, I just noticed this and i'm genuinely curious. Nobody in the media seems to have enquired or highlighted this yet.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:54 pm**

Probably because we’re not bothering to test anybody so the actual infection rate is likely much higher than reported.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:54 pm**

Pure speculation, but perhaps the lifestyle and dietary habits of a population? Smoking, diabetes, air pollution?

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:54 pm**

It could just be down to testing. Even the experts think the number of cases in the UK is far higher than advertised, due to so many having minor symptoms, and dealing with it at home.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:56 pm**

Reckon the first response got it right.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:57 pm**

scouseclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:54 pm
Probably because we’re not bothering to test anybody so the actual infection rate is likely much higher than reported.

Yes, could be a sampling issue. Mass testing might result in a lower percentage mortality rate. We're focussing primarily on hospital testing at the moment so data could be skewed towards the most virulently infected.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:58 pm**

Regardless of testing why have Germany managed to keep more people alive to date?

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:59 pm**

Spijed wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:58 pm
Regardless of testing why have Germany managed to keep more people alive to date?

Germanys numbers in particular stand out.

12,327 definite cases and only 28 deaths? How is that possible? I know their healthcare is good, but its not that good.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:00 pm**

Spijed wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:58 pm
Regardless of testing why have Germany managed to keep more people alive to date?

Over the course of history I’m not sure this is accurate.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:01 pm**

Yesterday, it was stated that the number with the virus could be as high as 50,000. That will probably be a lot higher now. Yes, a few of that 50,000 may die in the next week or so, but the proportion will still be quite small.

Different countries, different counting methods. Who really knows?

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:06 pm**

If one in 100 on average die from this virus (don’t know actual figure), and 1000 people die, you can assume 100,000 have/have had it.

We haven’t been testing so the only numbers that matter are the deaths.

I can confirm where I work there isn’t a shortage of beds or ventilators.

The Hospital is very quiet at the moment. People are staying clear

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:10 pm**

Once it's over we'll be able to the general population for immunity/antibodies and make a very accurate estimation of how many of the UK actually contracted the virus.

Once that is known we'll know very accurately what percentage of our population it proved fatal to.

Once these figures are widely known in the West, I think we'll find that ours, Germany's, France's our very similar.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:13 pm**

Looks like Italy will be top of the league by tomorrow

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:16 pm**

The World Health Organisations latest daily bulletin (No: 57 dated 17 March) shows has all manner of stats and advice. The graph below shows the cases in China and the growing number in the rest of the world.
China looks like they have it beat.

: Screen Shot 2020-03-18 at 20.11.17.png (92.42 KiB) Viewed 5762 times

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:17 pm**

mikeS wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:16 pm
The World Health Organisations latest daily bulletin (No: 57 dated 17 March) shows has all manner of stats and advice. The graph below shows the cases in China and the growing number in the rest of the world.
China looks like they have it beat.Screen Shot 2020-03-18 at 20.11.17.png

For now... until they open up shop again

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:19 pm**

ClaretMoffitt wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:59 pm
Germanys numbers in particular stand out.

12,327 definite cases and only 28 deaths? How is that possible? I know their healthcare is good, but its not that good.

They've probably tested more. Our death rate will probably be about the same when we realise that far more people have got it than are being reported.

It's different bean counters in different countries. We won't get definitive figures until this is all over.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:20 pm**

People are still going out, the gym, playing 5 a side, going pubbing/clubbing.
Many people are not listening to advice being given.

Theyll be the same people asking the questions ( not op ) of why schools are closing and why our figures look bleak.

Then in a week wondering why we are in lockdown.

Go to work only if you cant work from home and come home, dont go out unless necessary and self isolate and avoid large groups.

Then theres 1k people partying in a club for St Patrick's day...

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:20 pm**

mikeS wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:16 pm
The World Health Organisations latest daily bulletin (No: 57 dated 17 March) shows has all manner of stats and advice. The graph below shows the cases in China and the growing number in the rest of the world.
China looks like they have it beat.Screen Shot 2020-03-18 at 20.11.17.png

Clearly, just as China was on the downwards curve they had a singular, gigantic, sudden and inexpicable spike...

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:20 pm**

Our numbers of infected are low because we haven’t tested enough. The real number is probably much higher because no steps were taken quickly to deal with it. If you want to consider the difference between us and Germany, look at how quickly both governments have moved.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:22 pm**

Inchy wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:06 pm
If one in 100 on average die from this virus (don’t know actual figure), and 1000 people die, you can assume 100,000 have/have had it.

We haven’t been testing so the only numbers that matter are the deaths.

I can confirm where I work there isn’t a shortage of beds or ventilators.

The Hospital is very quiet at the moment. People are staying clear

Inchy, can HDU nurses be easily trained to do the same job as those on the ICU's?

Also, is it true that one ventilator machine can actually be used by up to four people at once, or is it purely one to one?

There was talk that getting oxygen was as much of a problem as the ventilators them selves.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:24 pm**

I think they will lock London down first. Possibly tomorrow at 5pm during the PMs daily update. I think the army will focus on London. Won’t wait til Friday at 5pm because too many people will already be in the boozer.

It will then come to the rest of us when we reach London levels in 3/4 weeks

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:28 pm**

Spijed wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:22 pm
Inchy, can HDU nurses be easily trained to do the same job as those on the ICU's?

Also, is it true that one ventilator machine can actually be used by up to four people at once, or is it purely one to one?

There was talk that getting oxygen was as much of a problem as the ventilators them selves.

Regarding HDU nurses, no it’s not easy but I think the plan will be HDU nurses will be overseen and assisted by ITU nurses.

It’s normally a ratio of 1 ITU nurse to 1 patient. Anyone who has worked on ITU will tell you it’s much easier looking after 1 sedated and ventilated ITU patient than 2 HDU patients who are trying get to climb out of bed confused with monitoring on.

I can see myself looking after 2 or 3 ITU patients. Not ideal but none of this is. Just have to crack on.

I don’t know about the oxygen production. Boris mentioned today we had 7k ventilators but we only have 5k ITU beds so not sure how that works

One ventilator can ventilate one patient. Never seen a ventilator that can do four patients at once

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:29 pm**

Rowls wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:20 pm
Clearly, just as China was on the downwards curve they had a singular, gigantic, sudden and inexpicable spike...

That was administrative based upon a change in criteria

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:44 pm**

I saw a time/cases graph the other day. We, along with most of Europe, are on a lower rate curve than China but are 43 days behind them. It took them 54 days to plateau and we were at day 11 at that time. Italy were 2 weeks in front of us but on a similar incidence curve. This was baselined from the day that reported cases passed 100.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:53 pm**

Is our death rate "so high"? France is a similar population country with twice as many deaths. Spain has a smaller population with 5 or 6 times more deaths. Italy has slightly less population, loads more deaths.Nederlands population is a quarter of ours but half as many deaths.
We'll only be able to do comparisons in another 6 months Id guess; nobody really knows how many people have the virus because testing is far from universal for ill people.

Of the European countries, Italy is the worst looking on deaths. I guess it hit there early when less was known about the disease and how it spread. We had the advantage of some learning from Italy's unfortunate experience.

I'd guess that Iranian figures will show a sorry tale in a few months time, they were slow to bring in restrictions and the people there are reluctant to isolate themselves by all accounts (and they arent that well looked after/fed etc compared to most parts of Europe). They'll need all of Allah's help.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:58 pm**

Inchy wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:24 pm
I think they will lock London down first. Possibly tomorrow at 5pm during the PMs daily update. I think the army will focus on London. Won’t wait til Friday at 5pm because too many people will already be in the boozer.

It will then come to the rest of us when we reach London levels in 3/4 weeks

And where are we going to get the troops to do all this? We have about 150,000 including reserves. Most of them are out of theatre fighting another of America's many wars. Even if they all came home (Which they won't) and all worked 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, (Which they couldn't.) that would be about one soldier for every 400 or 500 people. I hope that martial law, or similar measures are a long way off.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:04 pm**

Just read on Sky News a small Italian town outside Venice blanket tested all of its 3300 residents last week and isolated all those who tested positive and they have had no new cases since Friday.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:06 pm**

Steve-Harpers-perm wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:04 pm
Just read on Sky News a small Italian town outside Venice blanket tested all of its 3300 residents last week and isolated all those who tested positive and they have had no new cases since Friday.

It’s an approach to a small village I suppose

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:08 pm**

Yep would be obviously give more hope if it had been done in a bigger place.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:10 pm**

I'm curious how Hong Kong seems to have done so well. They have had cases since Jan but the authorities seem to have kept it at the initial stage. How have they done this. Large overcrowded population with a complex economy similar to London.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:12 pm**

Cardclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:10 pm
I'm curious how Hong Kong seems to have done so well. They have had cases since Jan but the authorities seem to have kept it at the initial stage. How have they done this. Large overcrowded population with a complex economy similar to London.

Ability and resources to test more people?

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:14 pm**

Cardclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:10 pm
I'm curious how Hong Kong seems to have done so well. They have had cases since Jan but the authorities seem to have kept it at the initial stage. How have they done this. Large overcrowded population with a complex economy similar to London.

A lot of the Far East countries have done well. Taiwan is another. They learned from the SARS outbreak, the West didn't.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:23 pm**

Inchy wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:28 pm
Regarding HDU nurses, no it’s not easy but I think the plan will be HDU nurses will be overseen and assisted by ITU nurses.

It’s normally a ratio of 1 ITU nurse to 1 patient. Anyone who has worked on ITU will tell you it’s much easier looking after 1 sedated and ventilated ITU patient than 2 HDU patients who are trying get to climb out of bed confused with monitoring on.

I can see myself looking after 2 or 3 ITU patients. Not ideal but none of this is. Just have to crack on.

I don’t know about the oxygen production. Boris mentioned today we had 7k ventilators but we only have 5k ITU beds so not sure how that works

One ventilator can ventilate one patient. Never seen a ventilator that can do four patients at once

Just wanted to say all the best for the coming weeks and months Inchy.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:36 pm**

most of the UK cases so far identified seem to be around the London area

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:44 pm**

Gordaleman wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:58 pm
And where are we going to get the troops to do all this? We have about 150,000 including reserves. Most of them are out of theatre fighting another of America's many wars. Even if they all came home (Which they won't) and all worked 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, (Which they couldn't.) that would be about one soldier for every 400 or 500 people. I hope that martial law, or similar measures are a long way off.

Troops can fight wars but cant man checkpoints to keep civilians in check? Give it a break. Your inane ramblings are nonsensical. Italy, Spain and France are on lockdown so we will follow suit. I'm sure the experts have been planning for what's to come. Oh wait, they havent consulted the resident guru on all things worldly, Gordaleman.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:23 pm**

If it really has been around for a few years now and many people assumed it was flu, bugs etc then wouldn't many people have antibodies, which, if tested now, would give a positive result?

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:39 pm**

Clarinetclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:44 pm
Troops can fight wars but cant man checkpoints to keep civilians in check? Give it a break. Your inane ramblings are nonsensical. Italy, Spain and France are on lockdown so we will follow suit. I'm sure the experts have been planning for what's to come. Oh wait, they havent consulted the resident guru on all things worldly, Gordaleman.

Why has it taken so long...... the guys poison.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:00 pm**

I am not sure there are data on the sensitivity (false negatives) and specificity (false positives) of the RT and this is a problem when you are dealing with mild cases. When people are very ill the Wuhan Radiologists were better at diagnosing Covid-19 than the swabs taken from patients initially.
It is all very complicated and until you know how good the test is and how good the labs are that do the tests you can end up with a thick soup of data which are impossible to understand.
It will take sometime to find out what the true mortality rates are from this.
From the aspect of knowing who has been infected a good specific antibody test would best tell us and then we compare that with the body count

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:37 pm**

Germany has 5 times the number of ventilators that the UK has and has sufficient nurses and beds to be able to make use of the ventilators.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:38 pm**

Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for heath and social care, asked on Twitter yesterday if anyone can make the ventilators we need to keep people alive:

“Calling all manufacturers who can support our National Effort for #coronavirus ventilator production - to help, contact Government Business Support team: 0300 456 3565 / ventilator.support@beis.gov.uk”

Of course, we didn’t know we’d need them until yesterday, did we, and obviously Twitter is the best way to get it sorted.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:47 pm**

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:37 pm
Germany has 5 times the number of ventilators that the UK has and has sufficient nurses and beds to be able to make use of the ventilators.

The health care system in Germany is based on four basic principles:

Compulsory insurance: Everyone must have statutory health insurance ("gesetzliche Krankenversicherung" – GKV) provided that their gross earnings are under a fixed limit ("Versicherungspflichtgrenze"). Anyone who earns more than that can choose to have private insurance ("private Krankenversicherung" – PKV).

Funding through insurance premiums: Health care is financed mostly from the premiums paid by insured employees and their employers. Tax revenue surpluses also contribute. To give you an idea of what this means: State-funded health care systems like those in Great Britain or Sweden draw on tax revenue. In market-oriented systems such as that in the United States, many people have to carry the costs of treatment and loss of earnings due to illness themselves, or have to get private health insurance.

Principle of solidarity: In the German health care system, statutory health insurance members jointly carry the individual risks of the costs of medical care in the event of illness. Everyone covered by statutory insurance has an equal right to medical care and continued payment of wages when ill – regardless of their income and premium level. The premiums are based on income. This means that the rich can help the poor, and the healthy can help the ill. However, these premiums are only calculated based on a percentage scale up to a certain income level ("Beitragsbemessungsgrenze"). Anyone earning more than this amount pays the same maximum premium.

Principle of self-governance: While the German state sets the conditions for medical care, the further organization and financing of individual medical services is the responsibility of the self-governing bodies within the health care system. These are made up of members representing doctors and dentists, psychotherapists, hospitals, insurers and the insured people. The Federal Joint Committee ("Gemeinsamer Bundesausschuss" or G-BA – please also see below: “Structure and institutions of the health care system”) is the highest entity of self-governance within the statutory health insurance system.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK298834/

Maybe the German health care system is better than the UK's health care system....

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:16 am**

The Germans also seems to have a very good after-care system (Kur)

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:31 am**

The vast majority of the armed forces are home based in UK, not sure why gordale keeps mentioning that the majority are out fighting American wars. I don’t know the exact figures but I would think we probably have between 2 and 4 thousand deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. There are others overseas 2 or 3 hundred in Germany 1200 or so in Cyprus and a couple of thousand in the former Balkan states. This type of operation is one of the many roles you prepare to do in peace time I would guess they will deploy field hospitals to add bed capacity and no doubt medical Helier for moving patients to less busy hospital trusts as well as on the streets freeing up the Police.

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:25 am**

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:31 am
The vast majority of the armed forces are home based in UK, not sure why gordale keeps mentioning that the majority are out fighting American wars. I don’t know the exact figures but I would think we probably have between 2 and 4 thousand deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. There are others overseas 2 or 3 hundred in Germany 1200 or so in Cyprus and a couple of thousand in the former Balkan states. This type of operation is one of the many roles you prepare to do in peace time I would guess they will deploy field hospitals to add bed capacity and no doubt medical Helier for moving patients to less busy hospital trusts as well as on the streets freeing up the Police.

And dealing with the unfortunate number of fatalities.

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:47 am**

I live in Hongshan District, Wuhan, China where the COVID-19 outbreak began.
As soon as the virus was dicovered the whole city was placed under "Lockdown".
I've been confined to my apartment since December 23rd.
No transport, cars, busses, etc. are allowed into the city, the train stations and tubeways are closed as are almost all the shops.
There is one mini-market open but you have to have your temperature taken using a hand held scanner....if it's slightly above "normal" then you will be refused entry.
I am not allowed out of the apartment block where I live unless I am accompanied by one of the volunteers and wearing masks etc. and have to sign a lot of papers to get permission.
I've read elswhere some comments, along the lines of, "it's only flu".
Anyway "self confinement" maybe unpleasant but it has worked here in Wuhan.
I wonder if people in the U.K. will follow the same advice, or ignore it a their and everyone elses peril.
Good luck to all !

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:07 am**

mapinchina wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:47 am
I live in Hongshan District, Wuhan, China where the COVID-19 outbreak began.
As soon as the virus was dicovered the whole city was placed under "Lockdown".
I've been confined to my apartment since December 23rd.
No transport, cars, busses, etc. are allowed into the city, the train stations and tubeways are closed as are almost all the shops.
There is one mini-market open but you have to have your temperature taken using a hand held scanner....if it's slightly above "normal" then you will be refused entry.
I am not allowed out of the apartment block where I live unless I am accompanied by one of the volunteers and wearing masks etc. and have to sign a lot of papers to get permission.
I've read elswhere some comments, along the lines of, "it's only flu".
Anyway "self confinement" maybe unpleasant but it has worked here in Wuhan.
I wonder if people in the U.K. will follow the same advice, or ignore it a their and everyone elses peril.
Good luck to all !

Remember your comments being taken lightly on the msg boards. THATS a long lock down ffs! We will need good luck..

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:04 am**

mapinchina wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:47 am
I live in Hongshan District, Wuhan, China where the COVID-19 outbreak began.
As soon as the virus was dicovered the whole city was placed under "Lockdown".
I've been confined to my apartment since December 23rd.
No transport, cars, busses, etc. are allowed into the city, the train stations and tubeways are closed as are almost all the shops.
There is one mini-market open but you have to have your temperature taken using a hand held scanner....if it's slightly above "normal" then you will be refused entry.
I am not allowed out of the apartment block where I live unless I am accompanied by one of the volunteers and wearing masks etc. and have to sign a lot of papers to get permission.
I've read elswhere some comments, along the lines of, "it's only flu".
Anyway "self confinement" maybe unpleasant but it has worked here in Wuhan.
I wonder if people in the U.K. will follow the same advice, or ignore it a their and everyone elses peril.
Good luck to all !

Hopefully, I guess we will know more in a 4-6 weeks.

I know it’s daft but I still feel a lot of anger towards Wuhan, I suppose it’s human nature to always look for someone to blame, yet I do understand it’s a ridiculous way to think.

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:03 am**

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky ... k-11959977

20k troops on stand by according to today’s news. I reckon they will be deployed to London today for a lock down

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:24 am**

Inchy wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:06 pm
If one in 100 on average die from this virus (don’t know actual figure), and 1000 people die, you can assume 100,000 have/have had it.

We haven’t been testing so the only numbers that matter are the deaths.

I can confirm where I work there isn’t a shortage of beds or ventilators.

The Hospital is very quiet at the moment. People are staying clear

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:32 am**

The very fact that there were manifesto pledges to build 40 new hospitals and recruit 50,000 additional nurses, just a month or so ago now, tells you that we did not enter into this pandemic "perfectly placed to fight the infection" as described by Boris and his advisors. Trying to put on a brave face.

Losing a large number of highly skilled nursing staff from Eastern Europe who left Britain during the Brexit debate hasn't helped and we have far too few critical care beds and ventilators to cope with this pandemic.

There has been a lot of muddled thinking and changes of strategy along the way. Yesterday school closures were announced, in the words of Patrick Vallance, "to suppress the infection and try and avoid more people catching the disease" yet less than a week ago he was talking about "building up herd immunity".

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