SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

[mdd2]

If we do not alter our behaviour the grim death stats thus far will be a mere taster only for what is coming
I am hearing of folk who should be isolating going out shopping and these folk are allegedly informed as they co habit with a medic
When he hold me he just rolled his eyes and asked why are we bothering when people are ignoring what is needed to stem the rise?

[PeterWilton]

You could argue it has already ceased to be a Pandemic and is now Endemic like the common cold or seasonal flu, in that it is widespread and will have a constant presence. Even a vaccine will likely not eradicate the virus, very few are, Covid-19 will now become one of the diseases we deal with.

Indeed you could make that argument. You'd be wrong, but you can at least make the argument.

[Quicknick]

Indeed you could make that argument. You'd be wrong, but you can at least make the argument.

So says Wilton the scientist with zero knowledge but stacks of arrogance.

[PeterWilton]

So says Wilton the scientist with zero knowledge but stacks of arrogance.

You don't need to be a scientist to know the meaning of words.

[FactualFrank]

Thanks - it seems very informative and it proves me wrong. The key quote I believe is this.

"By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity. "

There is a similar conclusion at this link......https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/03/how ... entury-ago.

Just in case anyone is still fancying the idea of deliberately seeking herd immunity without a vaccine .....the population of the UK is 66 million. Herd immunity for Covid-19 requires that approximately 60% of the poulation is immune - so with or without a vaccine that needs about 40 million people to be immune, and without a vaccine that needs 40 million people to be exposed to the disease, and on average 1 in 100 will die....so that is 400,0000 deaths. And even then we still don't know if catching the disease actually confers permanent immunity. I believe that current estimates are that 1 in 10 of our population have been exposed to the illness...and over 40,0000 have died.

I'm sure it will have crossed the Gov's minds that the majority of those 400,000 will be retired, taking a pension.

[Quicknick]

I'm sure it will have crossed the Gov's minds that the majority of those 400,000 will be retired, taking a pension.

And of the 400,000 who die, if the number gets anywhere near that which is doubtful, a small proportion will be OF it as opposed to WITH it.

[UnderSeige]

As far as I can see from all the scientific sources that I have consulted (I am not an epidemiologist) the very idea of herd immunity without a vaccine is a non-starter. Can you show a source for the suggestion that the Black Death and Spanish Flu ended in herd immunity?

Firstly it is necessary to distinguish between 'end of pandemic' and 'end of disease'. It's probably the case that diseases are very rarely fully wiped out. As the psalmist calls it "the pestilence that lurks in the darkness".

However, there comes a point at which a disease cannot find new hosts to infect. This is mainly due to two factors. The disease kills many of those that it infects with the remaining people who are infected becoming immune. Eventually this stops the spread (herd immunity).

Yet the Black Death was far from being an isolated outburst. Plague returned every decade or even more frequently, each time hitting already weakened societies and taking its toll during at least six centuries. Even before the sanitary revolution of the 19th century, each outbreak gradually died down over the course of months and sometimes years as a result of changes in temperature, humidity and the availability of hosts, vectors and a sufficient number of susceptible individuals. https://theconversation.com/how-do-pand ... one-146066

All previous influenza pandemics — 1918 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian flu, 1968 Hong Kong influenza, and 2009 H1N1 — came to an end when herd immunity acquired naturally reached a certain threshold. https://journosdiary.com/2020/04/29/her ... -pandemic/

Suggest google search if you require more. There are lots of links.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... epidemics/

[UnderSeige]

This is from August 5th:

According to media reports, more than 37 people in East China's Jiangsu Province have contracted with the virus - SFTS Virus in the first half of the year; and later 23 people was found infected in East China's Anhui Province.

SFTS Virus is not a new virus. China has isolated pathogene of the virus in 2011, and it belongs to Bunya virus category. Virologists believed it maybe passed to human being by ticks, and that the virus can be transmitted between humans.

Doctors warned that tick bites is the major transmission route, as long as people remain cautious, there's no need to over panic over such virus contagion.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1196820.shtml

Phew!

[FactualFrank]

Phew!

Well, very much a case of, "We have enough **** over here, thank you".

[UnderSeige]

If we do not alter our behaviour the grim death stats thus far will be a mere taster only for what is coming

It is true that everyone needs to follow the government restrictions but no one knows for certain what is going to happen next. The idea that '"grim death stats thus far will be a mere taster" it is unlikely to happen for the following reasons:

• All the arguments that I listed at the start of this thread.

• Spain looks to be the epicentre of the European pack. Despite a bad week, it's daily infection rate curve looks to be flattening. Spain's 'Daily Mortalities' at the peak in April was 866 (7 day average). The latest was 121 despite a much higher daily case rate.

• UK daily mortality rate (7 day avg) is currently 107. In April it rose to 943.

• Hospitals have a lot more experience of how to treat the disease than they had in April.

• It is unlikely that care homes will receive untested patients from the NHS like they did in April.

• Restrictions and measures to inhibit Covid could also reduce the number of Flu cases this year.

• Widespread mask wearing should help enormously. However, a small minority are still refusing to wear masks. Perhaps the government needs to find a way to police mask wearing and fine offenders (or lock them up with Andy Burnham - joke .

• Current government restrictions should help bring the numbers down.

• Daily figures on test results might be misleading. The higher the number of people that are tested the greater the number of false positives. The tests are not exactly testing for whether the person has contracted SARS-COV2. They are testing for whether the person has SARS-COV2 fragments in their body. There is a subtle difference. People who had the virus a few months ago may still be carrying around dead fragments of the virus that the tests pick up.

• A lot of the recent cases have been students. Once the virus has worked it's way through campuses these numbers should subside.

• Don't forget that there is likely to be a vaccine soon. Soundings from Pfzier are that a vaccine could be available to US public sector workers as soon as late November. Several projects are likely to be reporting in the next three months with vaccinations starting in the New Year.

[mdd2]

We are seeing the effects of complacency and deaths are now >100/day and by next week will be >200 or even 300/day I suspect and whilst this rise is nowhere near as steep as in March April I am told that the hospital situation is looking worse than last time. As fas as a vaccine is concerned we have no idea how effective any will be and for how long it will work without a need for redo. False negatives are more worrying than false positives with present test only being about 80% sensitive so you miss about 20% of cases on a single test.
I think the best possible news is the appearance of more simple and rapid turnaround of testing but again a lot depends upon the sensitivity and specificity of the newer testing methods

[dsr]

Thanks - it seems very informative and it proves me wrong. The key quote I believe is this.

"By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity. "

There is a similar conclusion at this link......https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/03/how ... entury-ago.

Just in case anyone is still fancying the idea of deliberately seeking herd immunity without a vaccine .....the population of the UK is 66 million. Herd immunity for Covid-19 requires that approximately 60% of the poulation is immune - so with or without a vaccine that needs about 40 million people to be immune, and without a vaccine that needs 40 million people to be exposed to the disease, and on average 1 in 100 will die....so that is 400,0000 deaths. And even then we still don't know if catching the disease actually confers permanent immunity. I believe that current estimates are that 1 in 10 of our population have been exposed to the illness...and over 40,0000 have died.

You might want to check your sums. If more than 6.7m have had the disease and 40,000 have died, that's a good bit less than 1%.

Where does the 60% for immunity come from? Isn't that just one of many estimates but no-one really knows?

[PeterWilton]

You might want to check your sums. If more than 6.7m have had the disease and 40,000 have died, that's a good bit less than 1%.

Where does the 60% for immunity come from? Isn't that just one of many estimates but no-one really knows?

The math kinda works out. We've had just over 100 excess deaths for every 100,000 in population in England and Wales, and 86 per 100,000 in Scotland, so it's fair to say the official Covid death tally is very underreported. When you count by excess deaths then estimate around 6.7m total cases, that 1% looks quite close.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... irst-wave/

[UnderSeige]

Tokyo citizens may have developed COVID-19 herd immunity, say researchers

Researchers in Japan and the United States have conducted a study showing that herd immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may have developed among the citizens of Tokyo during the summer.

Yasutaka Hayashida (Medical Corporation Koshikai, Tokyo) and colleagues from Boston Children’s Hospital and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical School, Boston, say their study suggests that seroprevalence for SARS-CoV-2 rose to almost 50% at around the same time cases of COVID-19 waned in the city.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200 ... chers.aspx

[Devils_Advocate]

Dont see how that report changes anything. Just seems to reiterate the current known position that herd immunity to Covid 19 may be possible and may be happening but that their is currently no scientific evidence to back it up

“Given the temporal correlation between the rise in seropositivity and the decrease in reported COVID-19 cases that occurred without a shut-down, herd immunity may be implicated,” suggest the researchers.

“Future studies may consider evaluating whether lifestyle/habits, viral strain, the widespread use of masks, or host factors such as immunological memory are responsible for the observed low fatality,” they conclude.

*Important Notice
medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.

[UnderSeige]

Dont see how that report changes anything. Just seems to reiterate the current known position that herd immunity to Covid 19 may be possible and may be happening but that their is currently no scientific evidence to back it up

“Given the temporal correlation between the rise in seropositivity and the decrease in reported COVID-19 cases that occurred without a shut-down, herd immunity may be implicated,” suggest the researchers.

“Future studies may consider evaluating whether lifestyle/habits, viral strain, the widespread use of masks, or host factors such as immunological memory are responsible for the observed low fatality,” they conclude.

*Important Notice
medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.

If you are refering to the 'Tokyo Report' yes it's a 'May Have' rather than a 'definite'.

I am not trying to argue that a 'Herd Immunity Policy' (let it rip kind of approach) should be used. The government have probably got things about right at the moment apart from the confusing communication and the track and trace app.

I do think, however, that we will get to herd immunity in the the next few months looking at the current data. Not because of any strategy but because that's the way that the pandemic is panning out. Things are nowhere near as bad as they were in April. The 'daily mortality' and 'daily case' rates do not look as though they are going to be exponential. Unless there is another twist (always possible in pandemics) I think that the cases and deaths will start to wind down well before the end of the year.

In July I was telling everyone about the Spanish data pointing to a second spike. This was at a time when cases in the UK were low and the regulations were being lifted. I am now saying 'keep your eye on Spain again'. Their curve is flattening and mortality rates remain low. They seem to be the epicentre of virus activity in Europe and are leading the pack. Spain then France and Belgium then; then the UK; then the rest.

Also, don't forget that there is likely to be a vaccine soon that will help towards herd immunity.

[Devils_Advocate]

If you are refering to the 'Tokyo Report' yes it's a 'May Have' rather than a 'definite'.

I am not trying to argue that a 'Herd Immunity Policy' (let it rip kind of approach) should be used. The government have probably got things about right at the moment apart from the confusing communication and the track and trace app.

I do think, however, that we will get to herd immunity in the the next few months looking at the current data. Not because of any strategy but because that's the way that the pandemic is panning out. Things are nowhere near as bad as they were in April. The 'daily mortality' and 'daily case' rates do not look as though they are going to be exponential. Unless there is another twist (always possible in pandemics) I think that the cases and deaths will start to wind down well before the end of the year.

In July I was telling everyone about the Spanish data pointing to a second spike. This was at a time when cases in the UK were low and the regulations were being lifted. I am now saying 'keep your eye on Spain again'. Their curve is flattening and mortality rates remain low. They seem to be the epicentre of virus activity in Europe and are leading the pack. Spain then France and Belgium then; then the UK; then the rest.

Also, don't forget that there is likely to be a vaccine soon that will help towards herd immunity.

If your view is that you think we will start to get herd immunity soon based on what you have read and researched then fair enough, thats your position and you definitely back up what your views are based

If there is any suggestion that our approach to the virus in terms of lockdowns, health protection measures and economic impacts should be based on the realisation of herd immunity either naturally or through a strategic approach then this needs shutting down because there is nowhere near the data and understanding at this stage to risk the health and economy of our country on this end goal

I say this in good faith but in this area you do seem to have formed an opinion on what you think is right and then go searching everywhere to support your opinion. If you are open minded you should actively look to challenge you own assumptions as this is how science works best.

There is so much info out there from well respected experts that refute the info you reference that I cant believe you look further than what you want to see on this issue which is a shame as you post a lot of good stuff at times and its refreshing to see someone who hasnt formed his or her opinion from their mates Facebook page

Just to clarify my position, I am not saying herd immunity isnt happening but that we are not anywhere near to being in a credible position to say it is

Edit: Just to add I accept that an available vaccine is a game changer and I would expect the majority views on how to manage and beat the virus will swing drastically when that time comes

[UnderSeige]

If your view is that you think we will start to get herd immunity soon based on what you have read and researched then fair enough, thats your position and you definitely back up what your views are based

If there is any suggestion that our approach to the virus in terms of lockdowns, health protection measures and economic impacts should be based on the realisation of herd immunity either naturally or through a strategic approach then this needs shutting down because there is nowhere near the data and understanding at this stage to risk the health and economy of our country on this end goal

I say this in good faith but in this area you do seem to have formed an opinion on what you think is right and then go searching everywhere to support your opinion. If you are open minded you should actively look to challenge you own assumptions as this is how science works best.

There is so much info out there from well respected experts that refute the info you reference that I cant believe you look further than what you want to see on this issue which is a shame as you post a lot of good stuff at times and its refreshing to see someone who hasnt formed his or her opinion from their mates Facebook page

Just to clarify my position, I am not saying herd immunity isnt happening but that we are not anywhere near to being in a credible position to say it is

Edit: Just to add I accept that an available vaccine is a game changer and I would expect the majority views on how to manage and beat the virus will swing drastically when that time comes

It's good to have one's opinions challenged. Yes I do go searching for backup and yes there are currently scientists who would rubbish what I am saying. I am not totally dogmatic in my opinions though. I have already conceded that SARS and MERS are not good examples to back up my opinion (to mdd2 I think - see above). If you have any good links that criticise the XYZ hypothesis or argue that the UK and other European countries are not following Spanish trends (with a few weeks lag) please post them.

My opinions have changed several times during this pandemic in the light of scientific studies and data trends. I will admit when I am wrong and crow when I am right.They have changed roughly as follows:

• January - What virus?

• Early Feb - It's only a flu like virus - nothing really to worry about.

• Late Feb - Virus is going exponential - measures need to be taken - not sure what.

• March - Worried that the exponential growth of the virus will sweep through most of the population if nothing is done. Full agreement with lockdown and supportive of the government. Having read articles on vaccine development now believe that the pandemic will last for a full year by which time a vaccine will be available.

• April-May - Critical of government for not halting the inbound virus at the outset and not implementing track and trace. Still fully supportive of lockdown. Fooled into believing that the Oxford vaccine would be available by September.

• June - Wrongly thinking that we were coming out of lockdown too early. Wrongly thinking that the virus was going to mutate as per Spanish Flu.

• July - warning about second spike due to early signs of a second spike in Spain (a good call I think).

• August - still warning about Spain and the likelyhood that it would be followed in the UK soon.

• Sept - Warning of a second spike here and still warning that we are following Spain. Read about the XYZ hypothesis and believe that this is the only realistic explanation that I have heard of the virus thus far.

• Oct - Something different about this peak. Mortalities and hospital admissions low relative to April and to infections now. Started to get sceptical about this mass testing. What are they testing for? Answer: particless of the virus some of which could have been dead particles in the the individuals system for several months. What about track and trace? Only as reliable as the tests and certainly more relevant at the outset of a pandemic. Spanish daily infection trend starting to level off. Was actually falling from Sept 19th to Oct 2nd. Now hovering around 8-9k https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/.Can now see that the end could be in sight - not of the disease but of the pandemic.

I will again change my opinion if the data changes. I am looking for the following kinds of things to change my opinion:

• Spanish data resumes upward momentum (which it lost after 18th Sept)

• Mortality data and hospital admission data starts to rise in line with upward shifting 'daily infection rates'.

• New evidence that the virus is more transmissible in winter.

• Problems with vaccination programmes that make it inevitable that a vaccine will be delayed.

• Failure of French and UK to follow Spanish data trends by late November.

• New more accurate testing becomes available and still trends continue upwards.

I will not allow my opinion to be changed by 'media hype', fear mongering or hatred of the government.

It is very easy to adopt an opinion and argue for everything that backs it up. Some on this site have done this in respect of the government. I myself have fallen into this trap from time to time. They paint a picture of total incompetence by stating only the mistakes that the government has made (and there are quite a few). However, for a balanced viewpoint it needs to be stressed just how difficult a challenge this has been from the outset.

The UK has not had a pandemic of this magnitude for a hundred years and most likely never expected this. They were geared up for a very different task in January - that of securing a favourable Brexit. The World Health Organisation gave us a false sense of security by stating that this was not a pandemic in the early stages of this year. They then went on to declare it as a pandemic at a very late stage. They also issued advice that mask wearing was unimportant.

The government then gave the go ahead to NHS to clear their beds. The government seem to be getting the blame but who made the decision. No one knows. Was it a case that control was handed over to PH England or the NHS and then they made the decision? I can't recall PHE, the NHS or government scientists arguing against the move. Clearly all parties are responsible. Not just the government.

The government quickly implemented a lockdown despite the World Health Organisation failing to declare the pandemic until March 11th. Matt Hancock (not my favourite minister) informed the House of lockdown by 16th March. The Prime Minister then announced the lockdown to the nation on the 23rd March. Various furlough payments and grants followed to help businesses stay afloat.

Yes I agree. We all need to keep an open mind.

[UnderSeige]

You might want to check your sums. If more than 6.7m have had the disease and 40,000 have died, that's a good bit less than 1%.

Where does the 60% for immunity come from? Isn't that just one of many estimates but no-one really knows?

If the XYZ Hypothesis is correct it is about 15%-20%.

[Devils_Advocate]

Your completely missing my position and jumping to the defensive and coming out on the attack.

I am not looking at any ideas being completely rubbished (Im looking for good conversations to challenge and test all our views), I am not asking for any argument to be completely backed up (one of my main points is no position can be completely backed up we just dont understand it well enough in this amount of time), and I am taking about intelligent academic discussions searching for the truth and not media hype.

In fact to immediately label any suggestion that goes against your position as media hype is much more a sign of a dogmatic commitment than an open mind but I'll give you the benefit.

Look you can keep using 100's of words (to keep saying the same thing) but at the moment the argument that herd immunity is happening or will happen soon is losing the debate in the arena of the leading non political scientific and medical experts.

No problem with you disagreeing and believing what you want to believe but every big reply you respond with just makes me feel more you are dogmatically attached to your XYZ herd immunity position in regards to Covid 19

[Mala591]

I wonder if our Lancashire council leaders have agreed a clear and unambiguous TIER 3 EXIT STRATEGY - based on local positive results/local ICU covid patient nos/local covid death rate.

If not then I suspect we'll be locked down for the next six months and 90% of Burnley town centre pubs will never open again.

[UnderSeige]

Your completely missing my position and jumping to the defensive and coming out on the attack.

I am not looking at any ideas being completely rubbished (Im looking for good conversations to challenge and test all our views), I am not asking for any argument to be completely backed up (one of my main points is no position can be completely backed up we just dont understand it well enough in this amount of time), and I am taking about intelligent academic discussions searching for the truth and not media hype.

In fact to immediately label any suggestion that goes against your position as media hype is much more a sign of a dogmatic commitment than an open mind but I'll give you the benefit.

Look you can keep using 100's of words (to keep saying the same thing) but at the moment the argument that herd immunity is happening or will happen soon is losing the debate in the arena of the leading non political scientific and medical experts.

No problem with you disagreeing and believing what you want to believe but every big reply you respond with just makes me feel more you are dogmatically attached to your XYZ herd immunity position in regards to Covid 19

I began reading this and then stopped. You are playing mind games like you do with many other posters. Don't bother replying. I won't be reading your replies.

[mdd2]

I do think Manchester is fiddling whilst it burns. I note cases seem to be dropping but the lag time for falling hospital and ITU admissions is 3-4 weeks away if the fall off continues. Paradoxically the better treatment will mean an increased length of stay as fewer of the very sick will die. This means that bed pressures in the NW will be worse than last time AND the NHS has to 1) stay open 2) cope with the usual winter upsurge in emergency admissions which include flu and other respiratory illnesses, heart attacks which increase in winter and elderly fallers with broken bones including hips, not to mention a significant number of "Bed blockers" in medical beds of those with MH issues awaiting a MH bed for in patient treatment of their mental illness. All this adds to the pressures whilst Burnham and Government orchestrate the second movement of Beethovens 3rd symphony.

[PeterWilton]

If the XYZ Hypothesis is correct it is about 15%-20%.

I'm sorry, what?

Save me reading all the posts, if you don't mind. Is there a hypothesis, one taken seriously, that says that 15-20% immunity can mean hers immunity is achieved?

Again, I could be misunderstanding your post based on context I've not read, so if I am could you clarify for me.

Edit: never mind. You just misunderstood your own info.

The XYZ hypothesis says that 85% is the figure. Not 15 to 20.
You can just discount the other 70% it posits as possibly immune just because they're not the most vulnerablre. That's not how it works.

[PeterWilton]

Also the video about XYZ hypothesis in the OP says there shouldn't be a second wave. It talks about the initial wave and the its done. Over. Finished. But I think we all know now that's not true.

I'll continue reading, for entertainment purposes, but I'm making this post as a marker for my own use so that I know anyone posting after it suggesting that herd immunity even might have been achieved is not all there.

[mdd2]

I think the purist, Peter, would say that there has not been a second wave just a rekindling of the smouldering embers of the first wave which according to Van Tam may be having its epicentre in the North because London was the first to get swamped but cases fell away earlier than up here with the easing of lockdown occurring with extremely low levels of infection down Saaaarth compared with up North meaning we had more cases at the start of relaxation of lockdown and so have taken off quicker than elsewhere.
It is highly likely that some folk will have in built immunity to infection with already primed T cells protecting them but the number vary in the studies but have been from memory up to 20% of the populations studied. The remaining 80% would have to rely of getting it and surviving and hoping any immunity lasts but that is the other unanswered question-are you immune for a few weeks, months or years?
What we need is a sufficient number of folk immune to suppress the R factor below 1 as then we would just see sporadic cases and could get on with life. If the average person passess this on to 3 others then we would need about 60-65% (statsticians please correct) of the population to have inherent or acquired immunity for the disease to become sporadic

[UnderSeige]

I'm sorry, what?

Save me reading all the posts, if you don't mind. Is there a hypothesis, one taken seriously, that says that 15-20% immunity can mean hers immunity is achieved?

Again, I could be misunderstanding your post based on context I've not read, so if I am could you clarify for me.

Edit: never mind. You just misunderstood your own info.

The XYZ hypothesis says that 85% is the figure. Not 15 to 20.
You can just discount the other 70% it posits as possibly immune just because they're not the most vulnerablre. That's not how it works.

Hi Peter. The XYZ Hypothesis is explained in the first five minutes of this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRwlxZ-BTaY

Chris Martenson first predicted the pandemic and lockdown in January. Hope it helps.
PS you don't have to agree with it. It is simply an explanation of how the virus works. It may not be correct but is the best explanation that I have heard so far.

[UnderSeige]

I think the purist, Peter, would say that there has not been a second wave just a rekindling of the smouldering embers of the first wave.

Not sure about 'smouldering embers' . I would say that lockdown interrupted the first peak. The Second peak is the virus taking off again from where lockdown interrupted it. It is still a serious situation for a few months but not as bad as March/April.

[mdd2]

It is worse for the NHS up here in the NW and I have had more colleagues affected by it than last time.

[FactualFrank]

16,982 daily cases - up 4110 from last week.

Although the death count hasn't really gone up much. I think a couple of weeks ago it was well into the 50s. Now 67.

[mdd2]

Daily average is now over 100 I think and will continue to climb at least over the next 2 weeks until/unless we get the case numbers down. Almost 6000 now in hospital with it which is just under a third of the peak in March April

[UnderSeige]

Daily average is now over 100 I think and will continue to climb at least over the next 2 weeks until/unless we get the case numbers down. Almost 6000 now in hospital with it which is just under a third of the peak in March April

That's good information. Where do you get the hospital figures from? I can't find them now. The BBC used to include them but have now split them into regions.

[mdd2]

There is some dispute as to how ITU beds will hold up and it is different from Spring because of lock down there were no elective operations requiring ITU beds and fewer trauma cases requiring ITU beds but M/C ITU beds are anywhere between 70 and 85% (local v Government figures) occupied now and a modelling of predicted demand would be for them to be full by early mid-November at the present rate. Hospital admissions are still going up at around 800/day in England and whilst cities like Manchester Nottingham and Sheffield are seeing cases falling I think admissions to ICU will rise for a few more weeks and more if the fall in cases does not continue. An apparent worrying addition is that in towns surrounding cities, cases are still rising.
If we continue with this rising demand for ITU beds and to carry on doing elective/semi-urgent work there will not be as much room to redeploy theatre staff to ITU's nor use recovery areas and theatre space as makeshift ITU facilities.
I fear a big jump in deaths this week. Hope I am wrong.

[UnderSeige]

The following is a good site for hospital admissions data. It also gives data of critical care beds and a lot of other good data:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19- ... dmissions/

[FactualFrank]

The following is a good site for hospital admissions data. It also gives data of critical care beds and a lot of other good data:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19- ... dmissions/

Certainly seems 'better' than what it was back in March. Over 16000 cases, but better treatment is making a big difference.

[PeterWilton]

Hi Peter. The XYZ Hypothesis is explained in the first five minutes of this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRwlxZ-BTaY

Chris Martenson first predicted the pandemic and lockdown in January. Hope it helps.
PS you don't have to agree with it. It is simply an explanation of how the virus works. It may not be correct but is the best explanation that I have heard so far.

I think you should watch it again because it doesn't say what you think it says.

[Siddo]

I began reading this and then stopped. You are playing mind games like you do with many other posters. Don't bother replying. I won't be reading your replies.

To be fair mate, most people stopped reading the tripe you post some time ago.

[cricketfieldclarets]

To be fair mate, most people stopped reading the tripe you post some time ago.

I dont think much of what US has posted is unfair or unreasonable. At least its researched or backed up with logic. Nobody knows who is right or wrong. But at least US appears to acknowledge when he is either.

[UnderSeige]

I think you should watch it again because it doesn't say what you think it says.

I owe you the courtesy of listening again so hear goes.

Martenson bases the XYZ hypothesis partly on the work of Dr James Todaro (re: 3:50 minutes into the video)
Todaro: "populations to reach herd immunity once only 10-20%" are infected with SARS-CoV-2.

The link to this which Martenson includes below the video:

There is growing evidence that T-cell immunity allows populations to reach herd immunity once only 10-20% are infected with SARS-CoV-2.
This would explain why a highly transmissible virus in densely populated areas peaked at 10-20% infected regardless of lockdowns or masks.
https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/statu ... 6716433416

He talks a lot about T-Cell immunity stating that some people who suffered from SARS in 2003 still have T-Cell immunity today.

He talks about Sweden who have had very limited restrictions and shows that the 'case rate' and 'mortality rate' rose and declined like all the other countries that imposed stricter restrictions.

He refers to a Swedish doctors article in which the doctor was arguing that, in Sweden SARS-COV2 is virtually finished.
https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/ ... rspective/
The current situation in Sweden is that case rates are rising slightly but the 'mortality rates' remain near zero.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/

Martenson talks about the current spike (9:20) and argues that it is not having the same 'exponential increase' as it did in March/April. He refers to France and argues that whilst case rates are rising mortality rates are remaining low. This still remains the case https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/



30% are already immune because of T cells from previous encounters with other Common Cold Coronaviruses or some other unknown reason. They never get Covid.
40% get it, have a mild case and don't develop antibodies. T cells though give them immunity.
15% get Covid and get antibodies that's show up in antibody tests along with T cells. These are probably the bad cases.
30%+40%+15%=85%= herd immunity.

You might be confused by the 85% = herd immunity. It is actually the 15% (the bad cases) that are the serious part of the pandemic because these people are vulnerable and many end up in hospital and die. They also easily contract and spread the virus very easily. Looking at the current low mortality figures, the virus has probably already affected most of this group (except from those shielded by lockdown). However, there will still be a number of them that haven't been exposed.

The 30% (already immune) do not spread or contract the virus.

The 40% (mild cases) have mild symptoms and can spread the virus. It is likely that it is this group that are currently accounting for most of the infections in this second peak. Otherwise the mortality rate would be rising in line with infections. Once the virus has affected a good proportion of this group the case rates are likely to fall and the end of the pandemic will be in sight. I hope that this becomes clear by Christmas. If not, by late winter or the spring.

The clue is mainly in the phrase "populations to reach herd immunity once only 10-20%" are infected with SARS-CoV-2".

Hope this helps.

[keith1879]

You might want to check your sums. If more than 6.7m have had the disease and 40,000 have died, that's a good bit less than 1%.

Where does the 60% for immunity come from? Isn't that just one of many estimates but no-one really knows?

It's not a sum it's just restating two figures reported elsewhere. The 60% is I believe the result of a calculation based on the transmissability (is that a word?) of the disease ....but it's an epidemiological concept and I can't pretend to understand it....although I suspect it's as much to do with statistics as with medicine.

[keith1879]

The clue is mainly in the phrase "populations to reach herd immunity once only 10-20%" are infected with SARS-CoV-2".

Hope this helps.

Hi....I hadn't previously looked at the link to "Peak Prosperity" (Chris Martenson's Blog) but having read your discussions on XYZ I was inspired to do so.

It's interesting but the thing that strikes me is that he seems to be implying that you just have to give that 15% (roughly) Covid and we have herd immunity. Fine....but how do we know who they are? Surely the problem with this analysis is that nobody knows who is in groups X,Y or Z and hence to completely give immunity to any one of those groups we have to vaccinate (or infect) everybody?

I'm also rather uneasy about accepting his analysis of what scientists are saying (including the Japanese guy quoted near the start) because Chris Martenson himself is not a scientist....he is a commentator on economic affairs. In fact I came across this piece which throws some doubt on his credentials https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178601.shtml

All that said I do tend to agree with some of what you say and it is interesting stuff.

Keith

[keith1879]

Just to add to this Undersiege....i really hope that you are right in your optimism but looking at the 7day moving average for deaths the figure has doubled in 9 days...the previous doubling took 12. I agree that at the moment the figures are not as bad as in April but that could soon be very cold comfort indeed if something doesn't change. Still....it would have been worse under Corbyn!!

[mdd2]

I hope people will see sense and avoid close contact whenever possible. The numbers will carry on rising for some time yet but it does look as if the increases in cases in some of the hot spots are starting to peak. I think if we can keep deaths below 300-400/day before a decline we will do well. Looking like 200-250/day in the next couple of weeks and of course that is likely to tell a different story as I have previously posted. We are better at keeping people alive so per 100 hospital admissions there may be 10 deaths rather than 20 (proportions made up) which doesn't mean the NHS is less busy and if patients do not die they clearly live, but are not immediately helping to bring the tea round-they are very sick and in hospital increasing the pressure on beds for other things

[UnderSeige]

Hi....I hadn't previously looked at the link to "Peak Prosperity" (Chris Martenson's Blog) but having read your discussions on XYZ I was inspired to do so.

It's interesting but the thing that strikes me is that he seems to be implying that you just have to give that 15% (roughly) Covid and we have herd immunity. Fine....but how do we know who they are? Surely the problem with this analysis is that nobody knows who is in groups X,Y or Z and hence to completely give immunity to any one of those groups we have to vaccinate (or infect) everybody?

I'm also rather uneasy about accepting his analysis of what scientists are saying (including the Japanese guy quoted near the start) because Chris Martenson himself is not a scientist....he is a commentator on economic affairs. In fact I came across this piece which throws some doubt on his credentials https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178601.shtml

All that said I do tend to agree with some of what you say and it is interesting stuff.

Keith

Hi Keith
I wonder if he is saying that the 15% are the ones that count because it's this group that can get very sick and end up in hospital or as a fatality. Once the virus has swept through the 15% group (z's) it may not be a 'pandemic problem' anymore. The 40% (y's) get it, have a mild case and don't develop antibodies. T cells though give them immunity.

Pandemics are usually quantified using the 'mortality rate' rather than the case rate. If the pandemic ceases to have high mortalities but continues to have hundreds of thousands of people having a mild cold/flu type experience there comes a point at which the government has to call a halt to all the restrictions.Keep face masks, hygiene and social distancing for a time to be on the safe side but 'end of pandemic back to normal resumption' should be permitted. I don't think that we are at that point yet but are getting quite near it.

I think that most of the spreading of the virus at the current time is amongst the 40% (y's) although there is still some 15% (z's) left who are unfortunately getting caught.

My niece is currently up in Durham University. She has caught SARS-COV2 along with all the other students on her floor in the halls of residence. I think that this is happening at colleges across the UK. The last I heard she is recovering from a bad cough and feeling weak. She is now looking forward to being able to move around the campus without restriction having become immune. I think that these are the types of virus spreading that are the 40% (y's). They would also include young/middle age people who have been picking it up in the community or at work.

The mortality rate is not good at the moment and if it starts to follow the 'Daily Case Rate' and both rise exponentially then the XYZ hypothesis will be wrong. Like you say in your other post the figures are not as bad as April.

Chris Martenson is an economic commentator of a different sort. He comments a lot on the environment and farming and such. He is also a Doctor of Pathology from Duke University in the USA. He has published scientific papers in the past. Pandemics is one of his interests. He was warning about this one in January and predicting that Western Economies would have to go into lockdown. I know him from years ago when he used to appear on the 'financial sense news hour'. As soon as I knew he was commenting on the pandemic back in March I knew I could rely on getting some good information from a 'trusted voice from the past'.

[UnderSeige]

It's not a sum it's just restating two figures reported elsewhere. The 60% is I believe the result of a calculation based on the transmissability (is that a word?) of the disease ....but it's an epidemiological concept and I can't pretend to understand it....although I suspect it's as much to do with statistics as with medicine.

The following is good explanation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

[mdd2]

I note that the Royal Liverpool has more Covid patients than at the last height of admissions and my 200-250 daily deaths in a couple of weeks guesstimate yesterday is already looking optimistic.

[FactualFrank]

I note that the Royal Liverpool has more Covid patients than at the last height of admissions and my 200-250 daily deaths in a couple of weeks guesstimate yesterday is already looking optimistic.

If you are correct, please don't come on with the "Told you so", as we had this crap from certain posters back in March/April.

[mdd2]

All I have been trying to do has been to point out that we are culpable in this disease spreading and can be the answer to stopping it. Apart from the illness and deaths the only other crap is what the epidemic is doing to the economy and via that to other societal problems.

[UnderSeige]

I note that the Royal Liverpool has more Covid patients than at the last height of admissions and my 200-250 daily deaths in a couple of weeks guesstimate yesterday is already looking optimistic.

It's looking like there is going to be a number of North West and Yorkshire hospitals busy in the next few weeks. However the graphs for the worst regions (NW, midlands, NE and Yorkshire) still look linear rather than exponential. Wales and Northern Ireland are falling slightly. Scotland and London are seeing admissions rising. The rest of the country are seeing small rises but as yet very little growth in numbers.




Mortalities
Mortalities look to be doubling every ten days at the moment (last ten days). They doubled in 12 days from Sept 28 to Oct 10.

Current seven day average is 135 per day. If this continues it would lead to 270+ in ten days time. Higher if the curve steepens.

To put this into perspective we are around forty days into the second peak. Forty days into the first peak (25 Apr) the seven day moving average was 798 and falling. The top of the first peak was 943 on 14 Apr. It took around 29 days to reach this figure. After this it fell quite sharply to 212 by the end of May and 60 by the end of June. Of course the spring weather was good and we were in a stricter lockdown having shipped many elderly patients into care homes and we were not wearing masks.

[UnderSeige]

Spain is the country that I am currently watching. It seems to be about 6-8 weeks ahead of us.

I was optimistic around October 4th. The seven day average for 'daily case rates' had been falling sharply for fifteen days (faster than it had been rising). Since then it has a bad couple of weeks and the falls have been wiped out. The next couple of weeks should indicate whether the 'fifteen day fall was a blip on the way up' or whether it is in a process of 'flattening off'. Whatever it is - it doesn't look like an exponential rise.

The mortality rates for Spain tell a slightly different story. They have been mostly flat since Sept 20th.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/

I'm not sure what to read into this at the moment and can't find many recent articles except for one that says that Andalusia has 'flattened the curve'.