SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

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Devils_Advocate
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:10 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:58 pm
I am more inclined to think we wasted a chance to edge toward herd immunity in summer when hospitals were underwhelmed.

I agree though that winter will likely be very tough.
Fair enough but there's absolutely no good evidence to support that and the consequence of pursuing that tactic and being wrong is very grave

Alternatively we could be following what looks like (at this moment in time) the better science of controlling the virus and learning to live alongside it like Germany and the S Asia countrys successfully have whilst hoping we get either a vaccine or herd immunity as quickly as possible

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1313 ... 80768.html

If you follow and read what Devi has to say you will see she is full of hope and positivity but thats based on us working together as a society to take the right course of action from both a health and economic perspective

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:21 pm

We know what halts the spread but we seem incapable of doing relatively simple things. Even some NHS staff have dropped their guards would you believe whilst taking breaks and not practising SD in rest areas or wearing masks all the time in shared offices with outbreaks occurring traced back to these areas. If the info from Sage is correct that only about 10% of those asked to self isolate for 14 days have done so it is hardly surprising we are heading back from whence we came in the spring. And Devi is correct in what you have posted CF and all the time the basic message has been SD wash hands regularly stay home and get a test if unwell with the more recent addition of wearing a mask WHICH COVERS MOUTH AND NOSE otherwise it will be about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.
Roll on Spring time and please let it be a scorcher.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:31 pm

For me mdd2 that is the biggest problem in that we know what to do and it can be controlled to a manageable level but there is so little trust between anyone that imo there is no chance we will put the measures in place and/or follow them as a society so I can only see us stumbling our way through it unsuccessfully until a vaccine is ready

Just hope its sooner rather than later

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:37 pm

I agree DA.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:55 pm

Just copied this from the Mail on line-if true, this must mean that the Oxford Group is about to announce some good data on the efficacy of their vaccinr

At last! NHS workers are 'set to get a vaccine in weeks' as the Government accelerates timetable for a mass roll-out before Christmas - while ministers introduce new laws to bypass EU approval for jab
Email sent by an NHS Trust chief to his staff, seen by The Mail on Sunday, reveals Health Service is preparing for a national vaccination programme before Christmas
In memo to staff earlier this month, Glen Burley, chief executive of George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust, in Warwickshire, wrote: 'Our Trust, alongside NHS organisations nationally, has been told to be prepared to start a Covid-19 staff vaccine programme in early December'
It can also be disclosed that the Government has introduced new laws that would allow UK to bypass EU approval process if safe and effective jab is ready before end of post-Brexit transition period on December 31

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:09 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:10 pm
I don't think people realise how tough it could be because the front line NHS staff are cream crackered already from the first wave and this time it is the intention to try and manage this without stopping most other NHS work and Inchy in his informative posts on the subject has explained how it could be even worse despite perhaps fewer cases of Covid due to staff shortages this time around for ITU patients (and others).
Yes I don’t disagree. And weather and a long winter will affect things.

Just have to hope that distancing etc plays its part in lower rates of other viruses. Flu etc.

It’s going to be tough for sure. There’s no easy answers.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:10 am

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:10 pm

If you follow and read what Devi has to say you will see she is full of hope and positivity but thats based on us working together as a society
Therein lies the problem

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:14 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:55 pm
Just copied this from the Mail on line-if true, this must mean that the Oxford Group is about to announce some good data on the efficacy of their vaccinr

At last! NHS workers are 'set to get a vaccine in weeks' as the Government accelerates timetable for a mass roll-out before Christmas - while ministers introduce new laws to bypass EU approval for jab
Email sent by an NHS Trust chief to his staff, seen by The Mail on Sunday, reveals Health Service is preparing for a national vaccination programme before Christmas
In memo to staff earlier this month, Glen Burley, chief executive of George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust, in Warwickshire, wrote: 'Our Trust, alongside NHS organisations nationally, has been told to be prepared to start a Covid-19 staff vaccine programme in early December'
It can also be disclosed that the Government has introduced new laws that would allow UK to bypass EU approval process if safe and effective jab is ready before end of post-Brexit transition period on December 31
Great news. Very much welcome. I’m sure it will follow all correct processes and procedures. And will be ethical. I’d be more concerned if it was that news from America let’s say who have an election to influence. With ours being four years i suppose this is one positive about waiting so long - it’s not going to motivated by that.

I’m pretty confident that they already know it works to the level they expect. And is as safe as can possibly be in the timeframe they’ve had to test it.

I think there are other ways out of this mess too in the unlikely event all vaccines fail.

Improved Testing alone could be huge.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:25 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:10 am
Therein lies the problem
Yep I approach this in two ways. One is from the perspective of the right and best thing to do if we believed we could do what other countrys have been able to do and the other is from the perspective of what this mess of a country has the capability to do.

The second is depressing and very negative but the realistic one however if im in a more theoretical discussion about strategys, the science behind the virus and how it can best be managed and defeated then I will talk in terms of the first approach

Other than that its just a case of crossing our fingers and hoping we get that vaccine

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by PeterWilton » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:33 am

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:25 am
Yep I approach this in two ways. One is from the perspective of the right and best thing to do if we believed we could do what other countrys have been able to do and the other is from the perspective of what this mess of a country has the capability to do.

The second is depressing and very negative but the realistic one however if im in a more theoretical discussion about strategys, the science behind the virus and how it can best be managed and defeated then I will talk in terms of the first approach

Other than that its just a case of crossing our fingers and hoping we get that vaccine
If I thought we had a competent government and a population who isn't all about themselves I'd want us to try and do what Japan, S. Korea and New Zealand have managed.

But we suck, so the best we can do is not let our health care system, such as it is, get overwhelmed. And the only way to do that is by shutting the country down again.

We should've been able to Dow what those three countries manages. We're an island nation, just like those (S. Korea is effectively an island nation when it comes to pandemics) so we shouldn't be anywhere close to being one of the worst affected countries, but here we are. That's how bad we ****** it up.

Whatever happens, we'll deserve it. For electing incompetence for so many years, for devaluing human life so much, and for being a country of individuals only interested in themselves and not a society interested in each other. Hopefully we can minimise what we deserve, but I'm not expecting much from this country.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:06 am

but I'm not expecting much from this country.
"Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country" JFK or words to that effect about 1961

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:25 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:55 pm
Just copied this from the Mail on line-if true, this must mean that the Oxford Group is about to announce some good data on the efficacy of their vaccinr

At last! NHS workers are 'set to get a vaccine in weeks' as the Government accelerates timetable for a mass roll-out before Christmas - while ministers introduce new laws to bypass EU approval for jab
Email sent by an NHS Trust chief to his staff, seen by The Mail on Sunday, reveals Health Service is preparing for a national vaccination programme before Christmas
In memo to staff earlier this month, Glen Burley, chief executive of George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust, in Warwickshire, wrote: 'Our Trust, alongside NHS organisations nationally, has been told to be prepared to start a Covid-19 staff vaccine programme in early December'
It can also be disclosed that the Government has introduced new laws that would allow UK to bypass EU approval process if safe and effective jab is ready before end of post-Brexit transition period on December 31
Hi mmd2.
There is a lot of good vaccine and other treatment news at the moment. Have a look at some of my posts from yesterday. The Oxford vaccine is now looking good after some hiccups a few weeks ago. There is also the Imperial vaccine and now a Cambridge vaccine to come next year.

The government have also backed a winner by ordering millions of doses of the Pfizer vaccine which looks like being available around the New Year/January time.

The Australians have developed a nasal spray and new treatments are proving successful in the NHS.

I still think that the end is only a few months away.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:39 am

I still think that the end is only a few months away.
To paraphrase Winston
A few months should see not the beginning of the end of our fight US but the end of the beginning.
We still have no idea 1) how long any vaccine or immunity after contracting the virus lasts 2) what the innate immunity is in the UK 3) when if ever we can eliminate this virus (I suspect not) and if we cannot eliminate it when will it mutate making present vaccines ineffective
What is for sure I think we have made a quantum leap in our vaccine technology and I think particularly the Oxford method could be a game changer for the future although a one shot vaccine will win favour over the Oxford one.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:46 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:39 am
I still think that the end is only a few months away.
To paraphrase Winston
A few months should see not the beginning of the end of our fight US but the end of the beginning.
We still have no idea 1) how long any vaccine or immunity after contracting the virus lasts 2) what the innate immunity is in the UK 3) when if ever we can eliminate this virus (I suspect not) and if we cannot eliminate it when will it mutate making present vaccines ineffective
What is for sure I think we have made a quantum leap in our vaccine technology and I think particularly the Oxford method could be a game changer for the future although a one shot vaccine will win favour over the Oxford one.
A lot of those questions are at least partially answered in the Dr Mike Yeadon video that I linked yesterday. I have reservations about some of the things he says but It's one of those talks that has enabled me to get a greater understanding about 'what is going on'.

One thing he says is that most young people will have had the virus in April-September. However, my niece started University a few weeks ago. All of her corridor in the hall of residence caught it and had a bad cough and weakness for a week or so. From what I hear this is happening in Universities all over the country and so it is unlikely they had it earlier in the year.

A very positive thing that Dr Mike Yeadon said is that with all viruses once people recover they will be immune. He said that if this is not the case the with this virus it will kill them. He said that once immune T-Cells against any virus that has been fought off remain for years if not decades. He said that this is standard first year text book knowledge in his subject.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:06 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:39 am
I still think that the end is only a few months away.
To paraphrase Winston
A few months should see not the beginning of the end of our fight US but the end of the beginning.
We still have no idea 1) how long any vaccine or immunity after contracting the virus lasts 2) what the innate immunity is in the UK 3) when if ever we can eliminate this virus (I suspect not) and if we cannot eliminate it when will it mutate making present vaccines ineffective
What is for sure I think we have made a quantum leap in our vaccine technology and I think particularly the Oxford method could be a game changer for the future although a one shot vaccine will win favour over the Oxford one.
He said that after El Alamein. I like to think that we are at the point where we have overrun the beaches at Normandy and are heading in land with the goal of the liberation of Paris in sight. There is a tough winter ahead and possibly a 'bridge to far' yet to be faced. But we have learned how to beat the enemy and the enemy is on the run.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:07 pm

Nice one undersiege

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:54 pm

Spain has declared a State of Emergency as it passes over 1,000,000 cases

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:12 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:55 pm
Just copied this from the Mail on line-if true, this must mean that the Oxford Group is about to announce some good data on the efficacy of their vaccinr

At last! NHS workers are 'set to get a vaccine in weeks' as the Government accelerates timetable for a mass roll-out before Christmas - while ministers introduce new laws to bypass EU approval for jab
Email sent by an NHS Trust chief to his staff, seen by The Mail on Sunday, reveals Health Service is preparing for a national vaccination programme before Christmas
In memo to staff earlier this month, Glen Burley, chief executive of George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust, in Warwickshire, wrote: 'Our Trust, alongside NHS organisations nationally, has been told to be prepared to start a Covid-19 staff vaccine programme in early December'
It can also be disclosed that the Government has introduced new laws that would allow UK to bypass EU approval process if safe and effective jab is ready before end of post-Brexit transition period on December 31
I really do hope this works, but I remain sceptical!

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:18 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:54 pm
Spain has declared a State of Emergency as it passes over 1,000,000 cases
This is the one to watch. I think the cases went over one million a few days ago. Spain has had a bad couple of weeks.

Looking at the 'daily case rate(7 day average)', cases were dropping until 4th of October and then started rising again. There was then a slight fall at the end of last week. It doesn't look good but doesn't look exponential. They haven't released figures for two days.

'Mortality rates for Spain (7 day average) have been flat since September 23rd. They fell slightly yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/

France looks a lot worst than Spain at the moment.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:23 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:12 pm
I really do hope this works, but I remain sceptical!
I wonder if it's the Pfizer vaccine? The US is preparing to roll it out to their public front line workers before the year end. If memory serves me right the UK has ordered 40 million doses of it.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:33 pm

This is an interesting article from last Wednesday and goes a long way to explain why Andy Burnham was dragging his feet in regard to lockdown.
CAPACITY CRISIS? Fewer patients in ICU beds in Manchester now than this time last year, figures show.
is the situation in Manchester's hospitals as bad as it looks?

Figures suggest that hospital admissions in the city are no higher than they were at the same time last year - pre-Covid pandemic.

It suggests that while infections are high in the area, they are not translating into more serious cases that require hospitalisation, and intensive care.

Experts and the statistics show the second wave of coronavirus is being fuelled by young people - predominantly in the late teens to early 20s - hence the spike in university cities like Nottingham, Manchester, Exeter and Liverpool.

But the fear is with many living in multi-generational households, infections among the young are starting to spread to the more vulnerable, older population.

ICU occupancy 'similar to last year'
But looking at NHS England data for intensive care use this time last year - in a year with no Covid, and only a mild flu outbreak - suggests this might not be far off the norm.

This time last year, 87 per cent of Manchester' ICU beds were full, while 96 per cent in Salford - which currently has an infection rate of 428.5 cases per 100,000 - were occupied, according to the Telegraph.

Meanwhile, across England as a whole, NHS England data shows that last October 3,339 of 4,125 adult critical care beds were full - that's 80.9 per cent occupancy - in the pre-Covid world.

The Sun has contacted NHS England to obtain critical care bed figures from this year.

In the height of winter most intensive care units will hit closer to 90 to 100 per cent occupancy in normal years.

'Selective statistics'
Earlier this week, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, accused the Government of using "selective statistics".

He said: "Greater Manchester's ICU occupancy rate is not abnormal for this time of the year and is comparable to the occupancy rate in October 2019.

"Providing information about individual hospitals does not reflect that our hospitals work as a system to manage demand.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12982764/ ... last-year/"

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:50 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:23 pm
I wonder if it's the Pfizer vaccine? The US is preparing to roll it out to their public front line workers before the year end. If memory serves me right the UK has ordered 40 million doses of it.
Now there’s a company without morals.
I met a man who worked for them, they developed a chemical castration for pigs. They employed him to infiltrate animal rights groups and support them with funds to campaign to stop physical castration. They knew the drug suppressed the immune system of the pigs and the people that eat the meat.
But they made **** loads of money, so it was ok.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:59 pm

I am closer to some of that data than Andy in regards to one of those hospitals. ICU is only a small part of this crisis the bigger part comes from those with Covid and other problems who need in patient care but not ICU and whilst Andy was sitting on the fence admissions were going up and up and up with people rushing around trying to discharge the walking wounded last Monday to accommodate the sick trying to get in.
Even 10 cases of Covid/day admitted to a hospital compared with zero a year ago will after a short period of time bring it to its knees. Plans to reopen the Nightingdale hospitals have not been revamped for the hell of it but because Manchester hospitals are effectively full. As I posted earlier cases in some hospitals in Manchester are up five fold compared with August. Nosocomial infections are high too, given with excellent infection control they should be zero

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:06 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:50 pm
Now there’s a company without morals.
I met a man who worked for them, they developed a chemical castration for pigs. They employed him to infiltrate animal rights groups and support them with funds to campaign to stop physical castration. They knew the drug suppressed the immune system of the pigs and the people that eat the meat.
But they made **** loads of money, so it was ok.
Goodness knows what truth will reveal at the end of this pandemic. I have read lots of issues with the pharmaceutical industry and scientific research during this pandemic. In the main it has been scientists giving critiques of the testing of various known treatments. The general thread through many of these is that 'cheap drugs that are not profitable' have been evaluated using 'set to fail' studies'.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:11 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:59 pm
I am closer to some of that data than Andy in regards to one of those hospitals. ICU is only a small part of this crisis the bigger part comes from those with Covid and other problems who need in patient care but not ICU and whilst Andy was sitting on the fence admissions were going up and up and up with people rushing around trying to discharge the walking wounded last Monday to accommodate the sick trying to get in.
Even 10 cases of Covid/day admitted to a hospital compared with zero a year ago will after a short period of time bring it to its knees. Plans to reopen the Nightingdale hospitals have not been revamped for the hell of it but because Manchester hospitals are effectively full. As I posted earlier cases in some hospitals in Manchester are up five fold compared with August. Nosocomial infections are high too, given with excellent infection control they should be zero
The article is not just talking about ICU. It is also talking about the total number of hospitalisations which is around the same as this time last year.
Figures suggest that hospital admissions in the city are no higher than they were at the same time last year - pre-Covid pandemic.
I think the curve in Manchester is now flattening. It would be great to see these cases continue to drop and then this become the model for the rest of the North West.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:31 pm

Hospital admissions across the UK are still rising and now over 1000 Covid cases/day.
The idea that the NHS can do its normal job AND deal with Covid is pie in the sky. The fewer cases of Covid the more the NHS will be able to do its normal jobs

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:18 am

Boots offering 12 minute Covid tests.... £120 a pop.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:25 am

Is that the antibody test or one for present infection?

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:27 am

Checked and it is a swab for virus particles

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:28 am

mdd2 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:27 am
Checked and it is a swab for virus particles
Yeah, to see if you have it. Which will make people ignore that and travel anyway if they don't have symptoms.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:15 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:28 am
Yeah, to see if you have it. Which will make people ignore that and travel anyway if they don't have symptoms.
If it's just the same as the NHS one why pay £120? There is one that they are using at airports (German I think) that is much more accurate than the NHS test. It was on the lunchtime news last week. I think that they were charging £80. Results were given in a very short space of time and the test is much more accurate.

I have just been listening to the Delingpod interview with Dr Mike Yeadon (again). He was arguing, using ONS data, that the NHS tests could be giving off a 90% false positive rate and creating a 'case o demic'. He said that the pandemic could go on for years until they realise this and stop the testing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbMJoJ6 ... WQz7vNcREC

My opinion is that the NHS should be using the kind of tests that they are using at the airports and only testing people with COVID like symptoms. Go for quality rather than quantity and also stop wasting money.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:40 pm

Oxford University covid vaccine 'will be ready by Christmas' says project leader
Project leader Professor Adrian Hill said the vaccine, tipped as the front-runner, would be ready in time for the festive season for selected groups
https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... l-19169250
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:53 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:40 pm
Oxford University covid vaccine 'will be ready by Christmas' says project leader
Project leader Professor Adrian Hill said the vaccine, tipped as the front-runner, would be ready in time for the festive season for selected groups
https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... l-19169250
Excellent news. We might be on the turf for the run in yet. If we have a better than projected (and not excessively bad) winter we may well be.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Billy Balfour » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:01 pm

This is great news. Let's hope it works and we can finally start getting out of this nightmare.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:28 pm

Spot the difference
The following image compares the number of covid19 deaths in the UK between the first six weeks of the pandemic (orange bars) and the first six weeks of the second spike (the small blue bars).

Image
https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by ksrclaret » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:52 pm

It’s a pleasure to read this thread at the moment due to your posts UnderSeige. Some real positivity backed up by facts.

The media would do very well to take a leaf out of your book.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:15 pm

Undersiege I do not think the test is a problem but the people who are being tested. Times have changed from when a test was used to assist in confirming or refuting a clinical problem. What we know about Covid PCR testing of nasal and throat swabs is the in the context of a sick patient, (so not one who gets a test as part of research or from contact tracing) is that it has a sensitivity of about 80%- so on first swabbing 20% of Covid patients will test negative but it is a very specific test with well over 90% specificity so not throwing up many false positives. Move testing to those who are well then we meet the pre-test probability of the person being tested as having the virus and as we have no idea of the prevalence of Covid other than guestimates then that effects the ability to interpret results from screening.
This may explain it better "Why Pretest and Posttest Probability Matter in the Time of COVID-19"
Google this will take you to the article and Bayes Theorem and Fagan's Nomogram
Suffice to say the PCR test is useful in sick patients provided the user is aware of the shortcomings and apart from screening, the result from any test should be interrogated if it is at odds with the clinical problem in front of the clinician-it should be questioned before it is actioned, repeating the test where necessary or discussing an X-ray or pathology report with the reporter (no one gets it right all the time)
The news of the lower death rates as a result of better management of the very sick and impending vaccine whilst great news should not be taken as meaning we can relax our guard just yet. Complacency has got us to this point, let us not see what maybe a slowing down of the rise in admissions (although not on my patch as yet) halted by relaxing on the recent changes.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:10 pm

Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873

The above seems to suggest that people will generally have Covid-19 immunity similar to a cold - around 6-12 months. And that the reason why the cases of people getting Covid-19 twice is currently rare, is because we're only just coming out of that immunity window from earlier in the year.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dsr » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:52 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:10 pm
Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873

The above seems to suggest that people will generally have Covid-19 immunity similar to a cold - around 6-12 months. And that the reason why the cases of people getting Covid-19 twice is currently rare, is because we're only just coming out of that immunity window from earlier in the year.
We know it's more than 6 months as a baseline, because there were 130,000 tested for coronavirus and survived in March-April, or one in 500 of the population. And if one in 500 people who test positive now were getting it for a second time, that would be about 300 per week and we would certainly be hearing about it. If it was 6-12 months, then people would be coming up a second time already.

So it's guaranteed that immunity (except for very, very cases who probably have an anti-immunity condition) lasts at least 6 months.

Incidentally, measles antibodies also decline over time but the immunity doesn't fade. I was told as a child that once the body has had a virus, it learns how to produce antibodies which means it's ready to swoop into action next time. That's why you get immunity - not because you have a store of antibodies, but because you know ho w to make them.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:59 pm

dsr wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:52 pm
Incidentally, measles antibodies also decline over time but the immunity doesn't fade. I was told as a child that once the body has had a virus, it learns how to produce antibodies which means it's ready to swoop into action next time. That's why you get immunity - not because you have a store of antibodies, but because you know ho w to make them.
Yes, that is true. Immunological memory.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:13 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:28 pm
Spot the difference
The following image compares the number of covid19 deaths in the UK between the first six weeks of the pandemic (orange bars) and the first six weeks of the second spike (the small blue bars).
https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/

The problem I see it is that it there is lag in infection to deaths. So the last 6 weeks of deaths stretch back to people infected near the beginning of August when we had relatively low community infection levels. We also have no idea what the actual infections level was during the first wave as there was very little testing being done except for the people being admitted to hospital with serious symptoms.

The sobering thought it that everyone who will die from Covid in the next 4 weeks probably already has the virus today.
We should treat any data like light from a star, what you're seeing today is the past, I think we should be worried what the graph will look like in six weeks time.
infections.jpg
infections.jpg (110.83 KiB) Viewed 378 times

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:46 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:10 pm
Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873

The above seems to suggest that people will generally have Covid-19 immunity similar to a cold - around 6-12 months. And that the reason why the cases of people getting Covid-19 twice is currently rare, is because we're only just coming out of that immunity window from earlier in the year.
I think that the article is accidentally misleading. On the BBC lunchtime news, when reporting this story, they also had a Professor Chris Smith from Cambridge University adding to the story. He explained that antibodies are not the whole story.

Whilst the Imperial research is likely to be correct he explained that the immune system also has 'T-Cell Immunity'. He described T-Cell immunity as "white blood cells that patrol the body inspecting every cell in the body and they can see cells that have virus's growing in them. If cells show those signs T-cells are equipped with missiles that they can fire into those cells and destroy them".
The following is the BBC lunchtime News on IPlayer. Chris Smith's comments are 8:44 minutes into the video.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... e-27102020

Another Scientist (Dr Mike Yeadon) explains it as follows:
"People who had recovered from SARS – 17 years ago – also possessed T-cell immunoreactivity against the novel virus, which their bodies had never seen. This is in the top two science journal, Nature".

"This isn’t even a surprise to people with my training. It’s understood that, though there are several lines of defence in the immune system, such as innate immunity, antibodies and T-cells, it is T-cells which are of central importance in responses to respiratory viruses. Viruses harm you by gaining access to the inside of your cells. They are then beyond the reach of antibodies, which are very large molecules which cannot get inside cells. Your body copes by recognizing viral infection is a very specific way and T-cells are at the very heart of that defence mechanism".

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:56 pm

dsr wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:52 pm
We know it's more than 6 months as a baseline, because there were 130,000 tested for coronavirus and survived in March-April, or one in 500 of the population. And if one in 500 people who test positive now were getting it for a second time, that would be about 300 per week and we would certainly be hearing about it. If it was 6-12 months, then people would be coming up a second time already.

So it's guaranteed that immunity (except for very, very cases who probably have an anti-immunity condition) lasts at least 6 months.

Incidentally, measles antibodies also decline over time but the immunity doesn't fade. I was told as a child that once the body has had a virus, it learns how to produce antibodies which means it's ready to swoop into action next time. That's why you get immunity - not because you have a store of antibodies, but because you know ho w to make them.
Hi dsr.
T-Cell immunity lasts for decades if not lifetime according to Dr Mike Yeadon. People who recovered from the first SARS virus still have T-Cell immunity 17 years later. He also sites articles in the Health Journal 'Nature' that prove this ( one of the most respected journals in the world with 'peer reviewed studies'.

Dr Mike Yeadon has a degree in biochemistry and toxicology, a research-based PhD in respiratory pharmacology, has spent over 30 years leading new medicines research in the pharmaceuticals industry, and founded his own biotech company which he sold to the world’s biggest drug company Novartis in 2017. He was also chief adviser to Pzier - one of the worlds largest pharmaceutical companies.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:21 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:10 pm
Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873

The above seems to suggest that people will generally have Covid-19 immunity similar to a cold - around 6-12 months. And that the reason why the cases of people getting Covid-19 twice is currently rare, is because we're only just coming out of that immunity window from earlier in the year.
They havent even said:

A) if they have tested the same people twice
B) if they are factoring in other elements of the immune system
C) If they have any examples of people reinfected

Scaremongering at best. Sorry not a dig at you for reporting the story.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:36 pm

So can I ask a question of you guys.

How is this virus Covid, different from your flu virus we get each year.

How is it it’s thought our bodies can maintain immune reactions to Covid when it does not with Flu.

Honest questions, that why I am sceptical but that might be because of a lack of knowledge.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:51 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:13 pm
The problem I see it is that it there is lag in infection to deaths. So the last 6 weeks of deaths stretch back to people infected near the beginning of August when we had relatively low community infection levels. We also have no idea what the actual infections level was during the first wave as there was very little testing being done except for the people being admitted to hospital with serious symptoms.

The sobering thought it that everyone who will die from Covid in the next 4 weeks probably already has the virus today.
We should treat any data like light from a star, what you're seeing today is the past, I think we should be worried what the graph will look like in six weeks time.

infections.jpg
Looking at that graph you posted something happened at the beginning of October (beginning of the season for respiratory illnesses perhaps). Since the beginning of October the graph is steep but linear. It is not exponential like it was in March/April. Also bear in mind that the number of tests have been rising in a linear fashion.

If you look at the case rates in the UK for March and early April, the peak for cases (7 day average) was April the 14th. They than flattened off and started falling in May. The peak for deaths was also April 14th. There was no lag. The deadly virus was sweeping through the most susceptible people in the population (particularly care homes).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Here is another one that compares 'case rates' (top right corner) with deaths (main graph). Deaths rise very steeply in March/April as do cases. Compare with now. The cases are skyrocketing but the deaths are rising relatively slowly.

Image

In Spain (the current leader of the pack) the daily mortality curve (7-day average) more or less flattened out on 23rd September. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/

Also bear in mind that the daily cases were significantly understated in March because of limited testing. They are now likely significantly overstated due to poor quality cheap tests that are being conducted on picnic tables in tents rather than in laboratories. It would be good if the government could publish the 'false positive rate' for the tests that they are using. Something that I have been informed is essential to any virus testing programme.

This does not look like a pandemic to me yet. Let's see what happens over the next few weeks.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Grumps » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:00 pm

Sky reporting death rate of critically I'll Covid patients is half of what it was at the start of the pandemic

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:07 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:36 pm
So can I ask a question of you guys.

How is this virus Covid, different from your flu virus we get each year.

How is it it’s thought our bodies can maintain immune reactions to Covid when it does not with Flu.

Honest questions, that why I am sceptical but that might be because of a lack of knowledge.
One example is the rate at which flu mutates. Its often not the same virus that returns. My undertsanding is that this so far doesnt mutate (or not quickly).

Just one such example.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:08 pm

To paraphrase a certain secretary of state we have too much unknown unknowns about this virus. What we do know is 1) the infection spreads by close human contact and can be controlled by controlling human contact and on average an infected person will pass it on to three others 2) the older you are the more likely you are to have a clinical illness need admission to hospital need ITU and a funeral 3) if you survive you produce two types of immune response a) antibodies which decline over about 6 months b)a T cell response and with many other infections this response provides some immunity from re-infection for many years. 4) Some people appear to have been re-infected with Covid-19 when the illness has tended to be less severe than the first episode 5) some of the vaccines produce both a good antibody and T cell response across all ages, 6) in the elderly who have survived Covid, their antibodies appear to decline more rapidly than in younger people.
So until we know far more about this virus or know we have an effective vaccine we just need to try and avoid getting this infection and passing it on by keeping to the three pieces of advise given almost from day one a) social distancing of 2 metres+ b) regular hand washing to happy birthday.3) if you develop symptoms of Covid isolate for 10 days and contacts for 14 days (and more recently if you are ill get a test). Grafted on to that has been mask wearing which has to cover your mouth and nostrils (although far too many just cover their "north and south")

In regard to speculation about Covid-19 it would be strange if antibody immunity was long lasting unless there are coronaviruses that do produce a long lasting antibody response and I do not know if Undersiege has seen data that show those who had SARS are immune from re-infection as the disease seems to have disappeared. The common cold seems to be with us forever but again it is so benign we never test for what has caused it and never bother about looking at T cell responses to these viruses. When this has been done T cell responses have been identified in small study populations but there has not been correlation with future infection in these individuals with common cold Covid viruses and sadly as all Biologists know what happens in a "petri dish" (in vitro) can be very different from what happens in the intact person (in vitro).
So for now we need to keep ourselves and fellow citizens as safe as we can.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:09 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:36 pm
So can I ask a question of you guys.

How is this virus Covid, different from your flu virus we get each year.

How is it it’s thought our bodies can maintain immune reactions to Covid when it does not with Flu.

Honest questions, that why I am sceptical but that might be because of a lack of knowledge.
Just a quick answer.
How is this virus Covid, different from your flu virus we get each year.
  • It is more deadly than the average flu. It can cause damage to internal organs such as the liver and kidneys.
  • It is unlikely to mutate in the same way that flu mutates. None of the other coronavirus's have - SARS, MERS, the four that cause around 25% of common colds.
  • There is a level of cross immunity with other coronavirus's. Someone who has had a cold in the last year year or two may have immunity from SARS-COV2.
  • The symptoms differ slightly from flu. Dry cough, loss of taste etc.
How is it it’s thought our bodies can maintain immune reactions to Covid when it does not with Flu.
  • The flu virus mutates as it travels around the world and comes back almost as a different virus the next year. That is why a new vaccine is issued each year.
  • Once a person has recovered from a respiratory virus they will be immune from it. This has to be the case otherwise the virus will kill them. This is true of any virus flu coronavirus or otherwise. There are a lot of differnt virus's besides flu and coronavirus's that spread throughout the winter. That is most likely why a lot of people pick up one or more colds every year.
  • Whilst the Imperial research is likely to be correct he explained that the immune system also has 'T-Cell Immunity'. He described T-Cell immunity as "white blood cells that patrol the body inspecting every cell in the body and they can see cells that have virus's growing in them. If cells show those signs T-cells are equipped with missiles that they can fire into those cells and destroy them".
    The following is the BBC lunchtime News on IPlayer. Chris Smith's comments are 8:44 minutes into the video. https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... e-27102020

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