SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

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UnderSeige
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:50 pm

ksrclaret wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:20 pm
Christ Almighty, if good news was to be banned and another lockdown imposed as the Covid Revellers want, I think deaths from mental health would far outstrip any coronavirus deaths.

We've totally lost the plot over this.
I think that whilst following the guidelines we should start to chill out a bit and look forward to the end of the thing. I really don't think that it will be all that long before we can enjoy a pint down at the local; watch a proper football match on the Turf; have relatives round for dinner; visit Nan etc.

We should take a leaf out of Captain Tom's generation. Many of the songs at the time were about looking forward to the end of probably the worst period that the country has faced: 'It's a lovely Day Tomorrow', 'There will be blue birds over the White Cliffs of Dover', 'We'll meet again', 'There'll always be an England' etc.
    People just want their 'way of life' back.
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    Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

    Post by cricketfieldclarets » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:52 pm

    mdd2 wrote:
    Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:33 pm
    No but quoting that a vaccine may be available by Xmas might be tempered by it may not be available as we just do not know..
    Come on mdd2. There’s more than the fair share of negativity. Even on vaccines there’s more negative than positive.

    What have we got if we haven’t got hope?
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    Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

    Post by cricketfieldclarets » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:54 pm

    Quick google. Or rather 'bing' shows as much.
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    Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

    Post by CombatClaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:58 pm

    UnderSeige wrote:
    Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:50 pm
    I think that whilst following the guidelines we should start to chill out a bit and look forward to the end of the thing. I think that whilst following the guidelines we should start to chill out a bit and look forward to the end of the thing. I really don't think that it will be all that long before we can enjoy a pint down at the local; watch a proper football match on the Turf; have relatives round for dinner; visit Nan etc.
    We are staring down the barrel of a second lockdown with deaths possibly being higher than the first wave.
    You are completely out of touch with reality and I while you do it with politeness, smile and a sense of optimism devoid of evidence, are spreading quite a subversive and potentially dangerous agenda.

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    Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

    Post by ksrclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:01 pm

    UnderSeige wrote:
    Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:50 pm
    I think that whilst following the guidelines we should start to chill out a bit and look forward to the end of the thing. I really don't think that it will be all that long before we can enjoy a pint down at the local; watch a proper football match on the Turf; have relatives round for dinner; visit Nan etc.

    We should take a leaf out of Captain Tom's generation. Many of the songs at the time were about looking forward to the end of probably the worst period that the country has faced: 'It's a lovely Day Tomorrow', 'There will be blue birds over the White Cliffs of Dover', 'We'll meet again', 'There'll always be an England' etc.
      People just want their 'way of life' back.
      Totally agree. We have to find as much positivity as we can, especially when talking to others. God knows the media won't provide us with any positive news. This isn't the first pandemic the world has witnessed and it's far from the worst. Modern science, technology and medicine is absolutely amazing, and a return to enjoying all our freedoms will commence eventually.

      Revelling in the misery doesn't do anyone any favours, but it's very easy to slip into if all your news comes from the telly. It's a depressing watch.
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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by ksrclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:07 pm

      CombatClaret wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:58 pm
      We are staring down the barrel of a second lockdown with deaths possibly being higher than the first wave.
      You are completely out of touch with reality and I while you do it with politeness, smile and a sense of optimism devoid of evidence, are spreading quite a subversive and potentially dangerous agenda.
      Get a grip, man. A "dangerous agenda". Jesus Christ, you've lost all sense of perspective.

      All US has said is that he's sure a return to normal life isn't too far away. He's not told anyone to ignore the lockdown, to flout the rules, that it's nearly all over. He's pointed out that there are some potentially significant breakthroughs occurring at the moment which could help us all out of this misery. Wanting to look forward to a better future is no more dangerous that constantly revelling in the depression of it all.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by CombatClaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:11 pm

      ksrclaret wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:07 pm
      Get a grip, man. A "dangerous agenda". Jesus Christ, you've lost all sense of perspective.
      Optimism and hope are great virtues, however:
      There seems to be repeated theme of lockdown skepticism, 'immunity' theories and the general tendency to downplay the severity and impact of the situation from a small minority of posters.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by cricketfieldclarets » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:18 pm

      ksrclaret wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:07 pm
      Get a grip, man. A "dangerous agenda". Jesus Christ, you've lost all sense of perspective.

      All US has said is that he's sure a return to normal life isn't too far away. He's not told anyone to ignore the lockdown, to flout the rules, that it's nearly all over. He's pointed out that there are some potentially significant breakthroughs occurring at the moment which could help us all out of this misery. Wanting to look forward to a better future is no more dangerous that constantly revelling in the depression of it all.
      Absolutely. And this is why I have enjoyed reading US posts.

      At no stage has he encouraged people to stop taking precautions. For those that want to they can hide in the bomb shelter!

      at no stage has he said it isnt serious, isnt deadly. He has also even highlighted where things are going badly and what to watch out for.

      Some are so negative they even see the positives as negative!

      Well apart from the false positives :D

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by ksrclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:23 pm

      CombatClaret wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:11 pm
      Optimism and hope are great virtues, however:
      There seems to be repeated theme of lockdown skepticism, 'immunity' theories and the general tendency to downplay the severity and impact of the situation from a small minority of posters.
      Good. Since when did skepticism become a bad thing? Since when did hearing alternatives become a bad thing? Were taking about locking down everyone again here, taking away our freedoms again. It’s healthy to be skeptical of something like that.

      “Is there an alternative to a lockdown, which might be more effective at managing the virus, but have less of an impact on education, mental health, the economy, unemployment?”

      “Well we don’t know. Nobody was allowed to ask.”
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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by mdd2 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:25 pm

      More false negatives than positives with the test

      But that is another problem not germain to optimistic pessimism or pessimistic optimism :roll: which is where I would put Undersiege and myself

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by Devils_Advocate » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:27 pm

      ksrclaret wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:23 pm
      Good. Since when did skepticism become a bad thing? Since when did hearing alternatives become a bad thing? Were taking about locking down everyone again here, taking away our freedoms again. It’s healthy to be skeptical of something like that.

      “Is there an alternative to a lockdown, which might be more effective at managing the virus, but have less of an impact on education, mental health, the economy, unemployment?”

      “Well we don’t know. Nobody was allowed to ask.”
      Why dont you take a bit of your own advice as you seem one of the most intolerant of others peoples opinion on this thread. Combats skepticism is just as valid as your skepticism so try and accept all views or maybe have a day off

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by dsr » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:28 pm

      CombatClaret wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:11 pm
      Optimism and hope are great virtues, however:
      There seems to be repeated theme of lockdown skepticism, 'immunity' theories and the general tendency to downplay the severity and impact of the situation from a small minority of posters.
      There is also a general tendency to overplay the severity and impact of the situation. People are going to ridiculous lengths to minimise coronavirus risk.

      Here's the position if you are over 80. Your chance of dying within a year, on average, is 10%. There are 3 miillion people over 80 and 300,000 of them will die within the year, in a normal year.

      If - and it's a big if - the "second wave" kills as many people as the "first wave", then instead of 300,000 over-80's dying, there will be 350,000 died from March 20 to March 21. Their chances of dying will have increased from 10% to 11.7%. Now, offset that marginally increased chance of dying against the certainty that they are going to die anyway, the majority of them within 10 years, and you can see why some people - both the over 80's and younger ones on their behalf - are thinking that the total cessation of social life is too big a price to pay for that 1.7% reduction in danger of death.

      I saw someone on another board saying that they would not have an elderly relative to Christmas dinner because of the danger of Covid. This is absurd. The danger to an old person of a single Christmas Day treat is miniscule - just 1 in 1,000 of the people who die of Covid caught it at a single family dinner, then that would mean if 3 million old people went to Christmas dinner, 30 of them would die. That is the risk for which people are willing to cancel Christmas dinner. For crying out loud. If on 25th October you tell the 3m that the one thing they have been looking forward to is off, and they have to stare at the walls for another 6 months, what will that do to their mental health? In any case, 50,000 of them are going to die before Christmas - if the survivors do celebrate Christmas, it may become 50,030. Many people think that's worth the risk.

      And that's before we mention the fact that the majority of the over 80's who died, were in nursing homes - where hopefully they will have things more under control this time.

      Seriously. If you have a lonely elderly relative who has barely been out and has had no social life all year, tell them that Christmas will be normal. Put yourself into isolation the week before if you must. But please, give them something to look forward to!
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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by ksrclaret » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:34 pm

      Devils_Advocate wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:27 pm
      Why dont you take a bit of your own advice as you seem one of the most intolerant of others peoples opinion on this thread. Combats skepticism is just as valid as your skepticism so try and accept all views or maybe have a day off
      Well thanks for that interjection, you’re well wide of the mark but thanks anyway. If you look, you’ll see that the bit I took issue with was positivity being called a dangerous agenda. That’s all. Don’t mind other views, just like to challenge them if I don’t agree.

      Now you may want to chill out for a minute or two, since you’re probably feeling a little silly.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by mdd2 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:40 pm

      DST from where I am it is not the over 80’s or any age group it is the simple fact that the NHS cannot cope with having the extra burden of Covid unless it stops other activity
      Greater Manchester is already on its knees coping with the extra cases and Newsnight stated that some cancer treatments have had to be curtailed (not sure how true that is) but we are heading towards only have 28 beds for non Covid patients from a normal pool of over 150
      Leeds are in a similar situation
      That is the reason for having to curtail meeting folk. The NHS is suffering from too much intervention by health economists which led to massive reductions in beds and a failure for over 20 years to get bed occupancy down to 80% from what at times is 99.9% with no slack in the system other than to cancel elective work and now semi urgent work too

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by martin_p » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:42 pm

      dsr wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:28 pm
      There is also a general tendency to overplay the severity and impact of the situation. People are going to ridiculous lengths to minimise coronavirus risk.

      Here's the position if you are over 80. Your chance of dying within a year, on average, is 10%. There are 3 miillion people over 80 and 300,000 of them will die within the year, in a normal year.

      If - and it's a big if - the "second wave" kills as many people as the "first wave", then instead of 300,000 over-80's dying, there will be 350,000 died from March 20 to March 21. Their chances of dying will have increased from 10% to 11.7%. Now, offset that marginally increased chance of dying against the certainty that they are going to die anyway, the majority of them within 10 years, and you can see why some people - both the over 80's and younger ones on their behalf - are thinking that the total cessation of social life is too big a price to pay for that 1.7% reduction in danger of death.

      I saw someone on another board saying that they would not have an elderly relative to Christmas dinner because of the danger of Covid. This is absurd. The danger to an old person of a single Christmas Day treat is miniscule - just 1 in 1,000 of the people who die of Covid caught it at a single family dinner, then that would mean if 3 million old people went to Christmas dinner, 30 of them would die. That is the risk for which people are willing to cancel Christmas dinner. For crying out loud. If on 25th October you tell the 3m that the one thing they have been looking forward to is off, and they have to stare at the walls for another 6 months, what will that do to their mental health? In any case, 50,000 of them are going to die before Christmas - if the survivors do celebrate Christmas, it may become 50,030. Many people think that's worth the risk.

      And that's before we mention the fact that the majority of the over 80's who died, were in nursing homes - where hopefully they will have things more under control this time.

      Seriously. If you have a lonely elderly relative who has barely been out and has had no social life all year, tell them that Christmas will be normal. Put yourself into isolation the week before if you must. But please, give them something to look forward to!
      If you have a lonely elderly relative I assume you or another relative will have formed a bubble with them and they can go to dinner within that bubble whether it’s Christmas or not.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by dsr » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:05 am

      martin_p wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:42 pm
      If you have a lonely elderly relative I assume you or another relative will have formed a bubble with them and they can go to dinner within that bubble whether it’s Christmas or not.
      You're obsessed with this idea about bubbles. It doesn't work. I dare say you saw the quotes by Julia Derbyshire to say she would have 7 people at her family Christmas dinner - herself, her husband, her two children her parents, his mother.

      And obviously you are right that she could form a bubble with her parents. And equally obviously you are right that she could form a bubble with her mother-in-law. But she can't do both. It's all very well to say (as you do say) that Ms Derbyshire can have Christmas dinner for 6 while the seventh person finds another billy-no-mates to have dinner with, but it's hardly the same.

      Here's news. A lot of Christmas family parties involve more than two households. In particular, a lot of elderly parents prefer to see all their children and grandchildren at Christmas, not just a limited selection. Not to mention aunts and uncles who often get allowed in as well.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by martin_p » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:13 am

      dsr wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:05 am
      You're obsessed with this idea about bubbles. It doesn't work. I dare say you saw the quotes by Julia Derbyshire to say she would have 7 people at her family Christmas dinner - herself, her husband, her two children her parents, his mother.

      And obviously you are right that she could form a bubble with her parents. And equally obviously you are right that she could form a bubble with her mother-in-law. But she can't do both. It's all very well to say (as you do say) that Ms Derbyshire can have Christmas dinner for 6 while the seventh person finds another billy-no-mates to have dinner with, but it's hardly the same.

      Here's news. A lot of Christmas family parties involve more than two households. In particular, a lot of elderly parents prefer to see all their children and grandchildren at Christmas, not just a limited selection. Not to mention aunts and uncles who often get allowed in as well.
      I know all that, but your obsession with single old people being unable to see anyone isn’t true. Christmas is going to be different this year, there’s unlikely to be the sort of hig family get togethers many (myself included) normally attend. But that doesn’t equate to single old people being alone.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by dsr » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:16 am

      martin_p wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:13 am
      I know all that, but your obsession with single old people being unable to see anyone isn’t true. Christmas is going to be different this year, there’s unlikely to be the sort of hig family get togethers many (myself included) normally attend. But that doesn’t equate to single old people being alone.
      Yes, on a literal basis an old person who normally sees all their children and grandchildren need not be alone because they can still see one other person who is equally unable to see family.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by martin_p » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:27 am

      dsr wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:16 am
      Yes, on a literal basis an old person who normally sees all their children and grandchildren need not be alone because they can still see one other person who is equally unable to see family.
      They can see one other household strictly speaking which could include child and grandchildren. It’s sad, I get it, although based on your own stats they have a 90% chance of being around for next Christmas anyway.

      But it’s sad, maybe even more sad, for many others. But that’s the nature of the situation we’re in and it isn’t going to get any better by pretending everything is normal. In fact the best chance all of us have of enjoying a Christmas a bit nearer normal than seems possible now is keeping away from people so we can get infection rates down. Maybe we’re lucky in Lancashire and Merseyside (where I am) in that moving to tier 3 over two months before Christmas gives us a better chance than most to have infection rates down to a manageable level by then.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by ClaretDiver » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:15 am

      On a slightly different tack....France and Germany have just announced 4 week complete lockdowns (although schools can stay open) and Spain has pretty much gone into country lockdown....during the first wave we were about 2 weeks behind....could we be heading for another national lockdown??

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:13 am

      dsr wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:28 pm
      There is also a general tendency to overplay the severity and impact of the situation. People are going to ridiculous lengths to minimise coronavirus risk.

      Here's the position if you are over 80. Your chance of dying within a year, on average, is 10%. There are 3 miillion people over 80 and 300,000 of them will die within the year, in a normal year.

      If - and it's a big if - the "second wave" kills as many people as the "first wave", then instead of 300,000 over-80's dying, there will be 350,000 died from March 20 to March 21. Their chances of dying will have increased from 10% to 11.7%. Now, offset that marginally increased chance of dying against the certainty that they are going to die anyway, the majority of them within 10 years, and you can see why some people - both the over 80's and younger ones on their behalf - are thinking that the total cessation of social life is too big a price to pay for that 1.7% reduction in danger of death.

      I saw someone on another board saying that they would not have an elderly relative to Christmas dinner because of the danger of Covid. This is absurd. The danger to an old person of a single Christmas Day treat is miniscule - just 1 in 1,000 of the people who die of Covid caught it at a single family dinner, then that would mean if 3 million old people went to Christmas dinner, 30 of them would die. That is the risk for which people are willing to cancel Christmas dinner. For crying out loud. If on 25th October you tell the 3m that the one thing they have been looking forward to is off, and they have to stare at the walls for another 6 months, what will that do to their mental health? In any case, 50,000 of them are going to die before Christmas - if the survivors do celebrate Christmas, it may become 50,030. Many people think that's worth the risk.

      And that's before we mention the fact that the majority of the over 80's who died, were in nursing homes - where hopefully they will have things more under control this time.

      Seriously. If you have a lonely elderly relative who has barely been out and has had no social life all year, tell them that Christmas will be normal. Put yourself into isolation the week before if you must. But please, give them something to look forward to!
      Hopefully some of those quick 'turn around tests' that can give the result within an hour will be available by Christmas. They can be bought at some airports now at a cost of £80. Boots are going to do one for £120. I believe the 'airport one' is very accurate. The NHS should be using it if it can be made available in higher numbers.

      The quick tests should enable a lot of things to get going again in the New Year.
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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:16 am

      ClaretDiver wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:15 am
      On a slightly different tack....France and Germany have just announced 4 week complete lockdowns (although schools can stay open) and Spain has pretty much gone into country lockdown....during the first wave we were about 2 weeks behind....could we be heading for another national lockdown??
      We are about 6-8 weeks behind Spain.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by CombatClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:59 am

      ClaretDiver wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:15 am
      On a slightly different tack....France and Germany have just announced 4 week complete lockdowns (although schools can stay open) and Spain has pretty much gone into country lockdown....during the first wave we were about 2 weeks behind....could we be heading for another national lockdown??
      UnderSeige wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:16 am
      We are about 6-8 weeks behind Spain.
      How are we nearly two months behind Spain?
      Are you talking total confirmed cases?
      In the last week we've had more cases per day and more deaths per day so how are we up to two months behind them and in what?

      Driver: We're a little behind France but ahead of Germany when it comes to infections and deaths per day.
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      Last edited by CombatClaret on Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:59 am, edited 2 times in total.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by FactualFrank » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:02 am

      UnderSeige wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:16 am
      We are about 6-8 weeks behind Spain.
      I find that incredibly hard to believe.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by FactualFrank » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:19 am

      Surely only a matter of days before a national lockdown comes in.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by SingaporeClarets » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:25 am

      FactualFrank wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:19 am
      Surely only a matter of days before a national lockdown comes in.
      Tomorrow Boris will tell people to not go to the beach and then when everyone does that over the weekend he will announce a national lockdown.

      Déjà vu.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:30 am

      CombatClaret wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:59 am
      How are we nearly two months behind Spain?
      Are you talking total confirmed cases?
      In the last week we've had more cases per day and more deaths per day so how are we up to two months behind them and in what?
      And why compare us to Spain when Driver asked about Germany & France, got any info on that?

      Driver: We're a little behind France but ahead of Germany when it comes to infections and deaths per day.

      Image
      France & Belgium
      These two could end up disproving my arguments. They both look to be growing exponentially. If this continues and the UK follows this pattern the people who are arguing that 'things are as bad as April' could be right.

      Why Spain?
      Good question. Spain is the first one to start rising. This occurred in mid July. Spain is the 'leader of the pack'. At the time, the UK case and mortality rates were falling and there was a general feeling that it was all over. At the time I was saying that it isn't all over and there could be a second spike as more and more restrictions were lifted. I was observing the Spanish data and was able to make that prediction from doing so. I read economics as an undergraduate and gained a bit of skill in reading human behaviour from charts.

      Also, have another look at the chart. All four countries have similar trajectories. The one that looks a bit different is Spain from late September onwards.

      Spain
      I am not sure that is the best chart to use but it does prove my point. I think that you have fallen into a bit of a trap in the way that you are reading the chart. Remember you need to compare the UK line at any point along the x (horizontal) axis with the Spanish line 6-8 weeks earlier. You can only do this to the start of September. To compare the chart visually you would have to shift the Spanish line to the right by 6-8 weeks. Have another look at it. :idea:

      In other words 'you can't compare the 'UK now' to 'Spain now' in order to find out whether we are 6-8 weeks behind'. You can however use it to roughly predict where we are heading. If we follow Spain's trajectory there should be a flattening off at around the end of November (this also concurs with Dr Campbell's analysis that I posted yesterday evening in which he was observing a slowdown in the UK 'rate of increase').

      Following this who knows? Spain is giving off a variety of signals. A three week flattening off followed by a two week steep rise that looks to be flattening off again. Mortalities in Spain have shown no significant increase since early September. The curve is almost flattened.
      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/

      Italy
      Following the same trajectory as Spain with a three month delay. Why the very slow start? Possibly higher immunity in the population due to being hit harder in the first spike.

      Germany
      Following the same trajectory as the rest but have good methods of control.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by PeterWilton » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:31 am

      We're not even 6-8 days behind Spain.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by Jakubclaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:33 am

      mdd2 wrote:
      Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:40 pm
      DST from where I am it is not the over 80’s or any age group it is the simple fact that the NHS cannot cope with having the extra burden of Covid unless it stops other activity
      Greater Manchester is already on its knees coping with the extra cases and Newsnight stated that some cancer treatments have had to be curtailed (not sure how true that is) but we are heading towards only have 28 beds for non Covid patients from a normal pool of over 150
      Leeds are in a similar situation
      That is the reason for having to curtail meeting folk. The NHS is suffering from too much intervention by health economists which led to massive reductions in beds and a failure for over 20 years to get bed occupancy down to 80% from what at times is 99.9% with no slack in the system other than to cancel elective work and now semi urgent work too
      It's not just that, seems to be apparent that there's a blasé assumption that the over 80s want to continue living a normal life when the truth is SOME are absolutely scared s**tless & want to remain indoors, people's mental health is often overlooked because we feel we are doing the right thing encouraging people outside for exercise & to see life outdoors, if people want to remain indoors where there feel safe & comfortable I say leave them there.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:51 am

      FactualFrank wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:02 am
      I find that incredibly hard to believe.
      Hi Frank
      Have a look at the info that I have just posted for Combat. You need to compare any point on the UK line with Spain six weeks earlier. Here's a bit more info for you from mid September:

      Scientists warn we are six weeks behind Spain which is now recording 239 deaths and more than 10,000 infections a day https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... Spain.html

      One from the end of July in which the governments scientific advisers were beginning to worry about Spain. They thought we were two to three weeks behind.
      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... cond-wave/

      Even Borris was on the ball in late July
      Boris Johnson has warned there are signs of a "second wave" of coronavirus in Europe, as he defended a 14-day quarantine on travellers from Spain. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53566043

      The press started to pick up on it in early August saying that we are two weeks behind.
      Coronavirus second wave: Data show UK is 'two weeks behind Spain' says data expert
      https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13180 ... quarantine

      The Independent picked up on it at the start of the UK second peak in early September.
      ‘The UK is going along the same lines’: France and Spain spark concern of second wave as Britain watches on.
      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 19246.html

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:00 pm

      Jakubclaret wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:33 am
      It's not just that, seems to be apparent that there's a blasé assumption that the over 80s want to continue living a normal life when the truth is SOME are absolutely scared s**tless & want to remain indoors, people's mental health is often overlooked because we feel we are doing the right thing encouraging people outside for exercise & to see life outdoors, if people want to remain indoors where there feel safe & comfortable I say leave them there.
      My 95 year old mother fell and injured herself the other week. She is now confined to the house until she recovers. She is fed up and bored even with all of her movies and magazines.

      Prior to her accident I used to take her for a ride in the car most days. She didn't get out of the car at the other end. Just sat in the car having a sandwich and a cup of tea and watching people walk past. It broke the day up for her and kept her happy without danger of SARS-COV2.

      Having to sit in a chair all day makes her bored and causes her joints to stiffen up. She is utterly fed up.
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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:02 pm

      PeterWilton wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:31 am
      We're not even 6-8 days behind Spain.
      You can't prove this unless you know what the data is for Spain in 6-8 weeks time.

      You need to compare the UK data now with the Spanish data at the beginning of September.
      Last edited by UnderSeige on Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by PeterWilton » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:08 pm

      Erm. We're doing about as bad, possibly worse, than Spain in this wave. My point is we're probably not behind Spain at all.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:16 pm

      PeterWilton wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:08 pm
      Erm. We're doing about as bad, possibly worse, than Spain in this wave. My point is we're probably not behind Spain at all.
      Spain were doing a lot worst but then their infection rates fell for three weeks before rising again. They are the leader of the pack and took on a different trajectory than other European countries from around September 18th onwards. I expect the onset of the seasonal respiratory illness period has clouded everything for the moment.

      Don't believe me. Look at the data.
      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by SingaporeClarets » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:26 pm

      Lies, damn lies and statistics

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by mdd2 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:28 pm

      Really doesn’t matter whether we are behind or in front
      We know how this infection runs and how it seemed to start in London and spread and now the resurgence started in the NW and is spreading outwards
      We are likely to have proportionately fewer deaths percentage wise due to treatments and we have to balance the risks/ benefits of the various lockdowns but it is not looking good for the NHS the economy the nations physical and mental health
      Our only present weapon remains social distancing etc we have too many cases for test and trace to help so personally we have to start again
      1) lockdown for 4-6 weeks and during that time which will see cases fall 2) ensure we have an effective test and trace system in place for when we come out of lockdown
      Assuming we are going to have a vaccine soon will be a big mistake

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by Jakubclaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:32 pm

      UnderSeige wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:00 pm
      My 95 year old mother fell and injured herself the other week. She is now confined to the house until she recovers. She is fed up and bored even with all of her movies and magazines.

      Prior to her accident I used to take her for a ride in the car most days. She didn't get out of the car at the other end. Just sat in the car having a sandwich and a cup of tea and watching people walk past. It broke the day up for her and kept her happy without danger of SARS-COV2.

      Having to sit in a chair all day makes her bored and causes her joints to stiffen up. She is utterly fed up.
      First of all I’m sorry to hear about your mother & I guess things must be hard for both of you, I’m a great believer in personal choices & people should have choices, reading some posts it seems to be a popular concept that all old people need to be outdoors gaining some sense of living from life as opposed to remaining indoors, an alternative view is that some people are equally happy also to remain indoors & never set foot outside, I’d never willing encourage a old person to do something there wasn’t comfortable with just because I thought it would do them some good, if people feel safe & comfortable doing whatever leave them be.
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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by CombatClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:13 pm

      UnderSeige wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:30 am
      I am not sure that is the best chart to use but it does prove my point. I think that you have fallen into a bit of a trap in the way that you are reading the chart. Remember you need to compare the UK line at any point along the x (horizontal) axis with the Spanish line 6-8 weeks earlier. You can only do this to the start of September. To compare the chart visually you would have to shift the Spanish line to the right by 6-8 weeks. Have another look at it. :idea:
      I moved Spain 6 weeks to the right, we do track their trajectory for a while but then we start doing considerably worse.
      Just because over month ago people said we are 6-8 weeks behind does not mean that holds true now, we've overtaken them in cases and deaths in the last few days.

      And Spain's slight plateau should not come as any comfort as we're no longer following their curve and anyway it's followed by a massive surge again.

      europe.jpg
      europe.jpg (130.46 KiB) Viewed 746 times

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by CombatClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:22 pm

      UnderSeige wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:30 am

      In other words 'you can't compare the 'UK now' to 'Spain now' in order to find out whether we are 6-8 weeks behind'. You can however use it to roughly predict where we are heading. If we follow Spain's trajectory there should be a flattening off at around the end of November...

      Following this who knows? Spain is giving off a variety of signals. A three week flattening off followed by a two week steep rise that looks to be flattening off again. Mortalities in Spain have shown no significant increase since early September. The curve is almost flattened.
      - We're not following Spain's trajectory anymore

      - You keep referring to very short flattening or plateaus, three weeks at the end of September and now you're calling another after only one week without seeing large rises. The trend is till increase and there's no evidence to suggest they will see a downward trajectory any time soon.

      - The temporary flattening of deaths in Spain only matches the short three week plateau in cased you've already mentioned. They've not flattened the curve, deaths are just 4 weeks behind cases, which are now rising again so the deaths will come.

      Anyway where we are compared to Spain does not alter the fact we are doing terribly and we need to act fact to halt the spread, not another Dither & Delay part II.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by CombatClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:08 pm

      If you take Spain's trajectory and alter the time it took you can see what France & the UK have done it match it almost exactly just at a hugely accelerated pace.

      Time.jpg
      Time.jpg (244.66 KiB) Viewed 711 times

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:34 pm

      Jakubclaret wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:32 pm
      First of all I’m sorry to hear about your mother & I guess things must be hard for both of you, I’m a great believer in personal choices & people should have choices, reading some posts it seems to be a popular concept that all old people need to be outdoors gaining some sense of living from life as opposed to remaining indoors, an alternative view is that some people are equally happy also to remain indoors & never set foot outside, I’d never willing encourage a old person to do something there wasn’t comfortable with just because I thought it would do them some good, if people feel safe & comfortable doing whatever leave them be.
      That's a good principle. There is a lot to consider with the elderly during the pandemic:
      • There is a danger of 'falls' if left alone for long periods of time. Once on the floor many can't get up and will remain there injured until someone calls. Anyone who has a frail elderly relative and cannot visit them at intervals throughout the day should try to arrange a telecare service so that the emergency services will be contacted when they fall.
      • If it's at all possible and within the regulations, try to give them a trip out if that's what they enjoy.
      • Most elderly people look forward to relatives visiting but some don't.
      • Some elderly relatives get things mixed up.
      • We should be careful not to tell them lot's of 'doom mongering' stories about the pandemic that will scare the hell out of them. Explain what is going on in clear terms without trying to scare them.
      • We all need to ensure that they are eating properly and that they are not cold. A lot of little practical things can go a long way to help them stay reasonably happy.
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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:40 pm

      CombatClaret wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:08 pm
      If you take Spain's trajectory and alter the time it took you can see what France & the UK have done it match it almost exactly just at a hugely accelerated pace.


      Time.jpg
      France and Belgium could be pointers to my argument being wrong assuming that no vaccine and other medications and improved testing comes into place by late winter/early spring.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:59 pm

      CombatClaret wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:08 pm
      If you take Spain's trajectory and alter the time it took you can see what France & the UK have done it match it almost exactly just at a hugely accelerated pace.
      Time.jpg
      A hugely accelerated 'respiratory virus season pace'. Also the UK has been accelerating testing and done a lot more than Spain.

      France, on the other other hand, has done a lot less testing than Spain and the virus is looking exponential there. There are two possibilities with this (or a mixture of the two):
      • The trajectory of France follows the Gompertz curve which leads to herd immunity as the virus runs out of susceptible people to infect.
      • The French authorities start and continue a strict lockdown which causes the virus to run out of susceptible people to infect until the restrictions are lifted.
      If the latter route is chosen let's hope that there is a vaccine programme well under way before the restrictions are lifted otherwise we will be back to square one again.
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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:05 pm

      SingaporeClarets wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:25 am
      Tomorrow Boris will tell people to not go to the beach and then when everyone does that over the weekend he will announce a national lockdown.

      Déjà vu.
      If they go to the beach in Lancashire they'll be blummin cold.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by CombatClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:05 pm

      UnderSeige wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:59 pm
      A hugely accelerated 'respiratory virus season pace'. Also the UK has been accelerating testing and done a lot more than Spain.

      France, on the other other hand, has done a lot less testing than Spain and the virus is looking exponential there. There are two possibilities with this (or a mixture of the two):
      • The trajectory of France follows the Gompertz curve which leads to herd immunity as the virus runs out of susceptible people to infect.
      • The French authorities start and continue a strict lockdown which causes the virus to run out of susceptible people to infect until the restrictions are lifted.
      If the latter route is chosen let's hope that there is a vaccine programme well under way before the restrictions are lifted otherwise we will be back to square one again.
      Flu comparisons, peddling herd immunity theories and anti lockdown sentiment.

      Dangerous poster dressing himself up as an academic but likes to use lockdownskeptics.org as a primary source of argument.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:41 pm

      Some mixed News with an Extremely Good News Development
      https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... d-19182997

      The bad news
      "The comparison of weekly infection rates show cases are rising in Hyndburn, Preston, Ribble Valley, Pendle, Blackpool, South Ribble, Chorley, Wyre and Fylde".

      The good News
      Cases are falling in "West Lancashire, Burnley and Lancaster". They are also falling in Liverpool.
      This is extremely good news because just over a week ago Burnley, West Lancashire and Liverpool were three of the worst affected areas in the country. I hope that they continue to fall in these three areas and that this is the pattern for other towns in the North West.

      It isn't clear what has flattened the curve in these areas. I hope that it is that the virus is running out of susceptible contacts due to 'herd immunity'. This would be extra good news. However, it may be a case of the increased restrictions bringing it down though. My hunch is that it is a mixture of both.
      Data extracted covering testing up to 26th October 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 2143, a decrease of 723 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 430.3 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 16.1%. The majority of cases (52%) were in those aged under 40 years, whereas 28% cases were in those aged 40-59 yrs. Of all the confirmed cases in the last seven days 56% were female and 44% were male.
      https://liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases
      Last edited by UnderSeige on Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:42 pm

      CombatClaret wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:05 pm
      Flu comparisons, peddling herd immunity theories and anti lockdown sentiment.

      Dangerous poster dressing himself up as an academic but likes to use lockdownskeptics.org as a primary source of argument.
      I don't tend to respond to personal insults and accusations. God bless and stay safe.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by ksrclaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:53 pm

      CombatClaret wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:05 pm
      Flu comparisons, peddling herd immunity theories and anti lockdown sentiment.

      Dangerous poster dressing himself up as an academic but likes to use lockdownskeptics.org as a primary source of argument.
      So would that make you a dangerous poster peddling lockdown theories, advocating deaths from mental health, and expressing an anti-employment sentiment?

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by CombatClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:56 pm

      ksrclaret wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:53 pm
      So would that make you a dangerous poster peddling lockdown theories, advocating deaths from mental health, and expressing an anti-employment sentiment?
      If by that you mean agreeing with the Government's own Scientific Advisory Group, Chief Medical Officer and Scientific Advisor, who all must also be dangerous therefor then yes.

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      Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

      Post by ksrclaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:04 pm

      CombatClaret wrote:
      Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:56 pm
      If by that you mean agreeing with the Government's own Scientific Advisory Group, Chief Medical Officer and Scientific Advisor, who all must also be dangerous therefor then yes.
      Well at least you admit it. I personally cannot bring myself to advocate such mental health deaths, to plunge so many more working class people into even more poverty, and to deprive so many working class kids of an education they deserve. That's too dangerous an idea.

      Edit - the WHO say something similar, too.
      Last edited by ksrclaret on Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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